Natural Gas Forum For Landowners

Open Discussion => Natural Gas Leasing => Topic started by: shinobi on July 19, 2012, 06:25:22 PM

Title: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
Post by: shinobi on July 19, 2012, 06:25:22 PM
The NG price today slipped quietly over the $3.00 mark.  It stands now at $3.02.

Next stop $12.00 and my first yacht!  Blue Laugh
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: EFK on July 19, 2012, 06:28:48 PM
I'd race you with my yacht but I fear I might spill my martini....  :o
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on July 19, 2012, 06:34:30 PM
Don't go too fast guys, I'll try to keep up with my sampan...
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: SOI on July 19, 2012, 06:48:18 PM
Had to Google that one (sampan) CF.  Are you REALLY a Chicken Farmer?  Me thinks not.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on July 19, 2012, 06:50:43 PM
Most certainly.  Born with a scoop in my hands.

Can't raise chicken in a sampan though.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: duffy on July 19, 2012, 06:55:21 PM
Ya know Walt, ya do have a sense of humor,olo.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on July 19, 2012, 06:58:30 PM
You can cry while scooping, or you can laugh.  May as well enjoy what you do.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: SOI on July 19, 2012, 07:41:20 PM
I'm not bustin on farmers or saying they can't be successful but them Sampans are the Mercedes Benz of pontoon boats!  Course maybe that's all that gas $$$$$$$$$ talkin!
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: shinobi on July 21, 2012, 04:22:23 AM
$3.09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . and rising   :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: flyfisher on July 21, 2012, 04:51:57 AM
In another  2 months or maybe 3 :) we`ll be into the heating season and prices should continue to rise...not wishing for a cold fall & winter, but..... :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: shinobi on July 22, 2012, 05:45:18 AM
I was casting about this morning in the cavernous, empty, open pit that is my mind, searching for reasons underlying escalating NG prices.  Out of the mists there actually appeared a couple of thoughts:

The fracking halt owing to water shortage in PA is constructive for prices.

The abysmal prospects for NY fracking help (a little bit) to dampen oversupply worries and tend to support higher price.  Ditto regarding fracking in DRBC territory.

Of course I don't really know why prices are climbing.  It's no doubt a mosaic of factors.  Still, I'm liking the bottom line a lot.  :)   
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: realman on July 23, 2012, 07:48:35 PM
 Natural gas is at $3.11 right now its slowly creeping up. :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on July 24, 2012, 04:13:43 AM
I do not know if factors other than weather play into the current price trends, but have a theory as to why we had a glut to start with.

Many of the producers are mid sized firms.  Most of them are cash- strapped.  They need the cash flow, so many of them are willing to dump their reserve onto the market at a loss.

If this is indeed a factor, we can expected the same firms to hold back production once their cash flow improve.  Inventory would deplete and the pendulum would them swing the other way.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: realman on July 24, 2012, 03:45:08 PM
 $3.18 I think there checking the oil on those drilling rigs,getting them ready for the long trek back east. :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: semper_fi on July 25, 2012, 06:10:57 AM
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: shinobi on July 25, 2012, 07:30:44 AM
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF

Respectfully, sir:

At $1.693 that was not a sale.  That, sir, was a charitable donation you made there!
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: macal on July 25, 2012, 07:54:05 AM

  Anybody know what Cabot has been selling gas for.

  And what their deductions are like.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: gassyguy on July 25, 2012, 08:51:08 AM
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF
It's not the futures contracts, you don't get the Henry Hub Prices usually posted in the papers your getting the Tennesssee Zn 4 Line 300 spot price, which is much lower due to piping limitations. There is a lot of gas coming out of a small portion of PA and it has no where to go. As soon as more piping is added  you will get much closer to the Henry Hub posted gas price.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on July 25, 2012, 02:23:01 PM
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF

Respectfully, sir:

At $1.693 that was not a sale.  That, sir, was a charitable donation you made there!
>>>> It would be very nice if the IRS would allow someone to take the difference between what gas has sold for recently in the most transportation deficient spots in northern Pennsylvania and fair market value, but unfortunately the income tax people don't see it that way. Recent articles on the EIA website bear out what some have mentioned on this forum, that gas has at times on the worst congested portions of the Tennessee pipeline been selling for as low as 1 dollar per thousand.  It's still a very uneven pattern of pricing that is mostly attributed to transportation problems in the northeast, but overall the old northeast premium where gas was more valuable here than in other parts of the country has for the most part vanished.  A great break for the consumer, especially for those that use gas in massive quantities.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 25, 2012, 03:28:21 PM
Luckily for them, Cabot is not getting Zone 4 pricing. On a weighted average, they are getting within 3 to 5 cents of "last day NYMEX". Conference call today. They were also scheduled to go down to 3 rigs in August, but will definitely keep 4 rigs through the end of 2012. (More wells than planned. I wonder if royalty owners have seen this pricing on their checks.

Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF
It's not the futures contracts, you don't get the Henry Hub Prices usually posted in the papers your getting the Tennesssee Zn 4 Line 300 spot price, which is much lower due to piping limitations. There is a lot of gas coming out of a small portion of PA and it has no where to go. As soon as more piping is added  you will get much closer to the Henry Hub posted gas price.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: shinobi on July 30, 2012, 11:07:56 AM
NatGas price surging a bit today, up 5.8%, currently at $3.19.

Heard it on the hourly news just now.  Said supply is down, usage for power generation up.

Sweet!  ;D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Tim W.Pa on July 31, 2012, 04:45:23 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851)

Japan signs deal for LNG. This is a good start let's hope it gets the ball rolling.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 31, 2012, 01:36:56 PM
Good news. As an official of the Japanese government  put it. He does not see the Energy Department giving the OK for this or any other export to Japan until after the election. (I wonder if this is another case of Obama being able to " do more after November" Wink Wink) Putting this in perspective, the amount in this report is 2.2 Million Tonnes. Spread over the year, that is less than 300 MMCF/d.

 From Anadarkos report today , there is a 200 well backlog for wells they are involved with. Those wells are being brought on-line at a rate of 20-30 per quarter. That backlog alone would take around two years.

The report by Bentek at the following link goes into detail about Natural Gas Supply/Demand. At continued low prices, with LNG exports, Supply and Demand will be balanced.

http://ndpipelines.wordpress.com/natural-gas-study/

If one is to believe the Deloitte report released earlier this year, then the effect on Natural Gas prices will be minimal.  Given the model?s assumptions, the World Gas Model projects a weighted-average price impact of $0.12/MMBtu on U.S. prices from 2016 to 2035 as a result of the 6 Bcfd of LNG exports.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851)
Japan signs deal for LNG. This is a good start let's hope it gets the ball rolling.

Back to Natural Gas being greater than $3, the Gas back to coal switching might not be that big of an issue. Nuclear power has been cut back due to the high temperature of the water used.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-26/heat-sends-u-dot-s-dot-nuclear-power-production-to-9-year-low
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on July 31, 2012, 01:50:59 PM
Every time in the past when there has been a severe drought many utility companies have been forced to curtail operations at their coal and nuclear powered plants either due to a lack of water or more often because of the rules that require a reduction in power when hot water discharges endanger downstream aquatic life.  Unfortunately there has not been much sign of the drought of 2012 breaking anytime soon in most of the country.  It's of note that the plant pictured in the article is the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant.  Vermont is the state  that has the highest dependency in the United State upon nuclear power for electricity.  And it is also of note that the Vermont legislature and governor approved of Kill the Drill legislation just in case they would have any shale gas that needs hydraulic fracturing.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00
Post by: mohawk70 on July 31, 2012, 03:57:08 PM
Every time in the past when there has been a severe drought many utility companies have been forced to curtail operations at their coal and nuclear powered plants either due to a lack of water or more often because of the rules that require a reduction in power when hot water discharges endanger downstream aquatic life.  Unfortunately there has not been much sign of the drought of 2012 breaking anytime soon in most of the country.  It's of note that the plant pictured in the article is the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant.  Vermont is the state  that has the highest dependency in the United State upon nuclear power for electricity.  And it is also of note that the Vermont legislature and governor approved of Kill the Drill legislation just in case they would have any shale gas that needs hydraulic fracturing.

Regardless of fuel used, ANY electric power plant that uses a steam turbine would have exactly the same problem.

The solution is to construct more such plants widely separated along rivers. 

Or on oceanic inlets, where they could use salt water for cooling ... even with the corrosion issues.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 02, 2012, 10:06:43 AM
Well, there goes my yacht.   :)

NG falling like a rock, now back down south of three bucks.   :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 10:20:18 AM
I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 02, 2012, 10:30:41 AM
I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?

I dunno.  How can any mere mortal know this stuff!

Did a contract expire at end of July or something like that?  Who the he!! knows!

All I know is I'm disappointed.  We were holding the line fairly well north of three bucks.

Now this.  Gluts suck. :'(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 10:37:16 AM
Today's movement correlates to the Dow and Oil market, so don't read too much into it.

I am more concerned about persistent dumping.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 02, 2012, 11:13:47 AM
Who is they? How do they define break even? IRR? Drilling costs alone?

I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 02, 2012, 11:21:09 AM
Looking through the commodities news section on Yahoo Finance I see that there was some bearish news in regards to natural gas due to an unexpectedly high figure for storage buildup.  It's a generally bad day for commodities even including the grains which should be going up with no break to speak of in the great drought of 2012.  You can go both crazy and broke in trying to predict day to day trends in commodity prices.  In terms of more meaningful long term trends in natural gas pricing there was an interesting bit of commentary on Seeking Alpha by a writer, Miachael Fitzsimmons.  His central point was that America's leading natural gas producer, Exxon-Mobil, has been remiss in not putting its considerable influence behind the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel.  He makes some interesting points both as to the gain for the national economy which could be realized if we fully utilized natural gas to power cars and trucks, as well as the opportunity to increase the price of Exxon shares which have stagnated these last 5 years if natural gas usage and the price for the commodity would rise.  And I believe Mr. Fitzsimmons makes a very good case that the Federal budget deficits and ever growing national debt are more a symptom of our foolishness in not using our own home grown fuels than the main economic problem.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 11:28:49 AM
...... And I believe Mr. Fitzsimmons makes a very good case that the Federal budget deficits and ever growing national debt are more a symptom of our foolishness in not using our own home grown fuels than the main economic problem.

That's why we need a cohesive energy policy and strategy.  We need to establish an Energy Department to lead the nation on this important initiative.

... er. what did you say, oh, we got such a department already?... oh, yes, that Steven, er, who?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 11:36:16 AM
Who is they? How do they define break even? IRR? Drilling costs alone?

I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

...

Don't have that in my pocket this moment.  I have read reports from different sources comparing total costs for various plays in N. America, and they consistently show Marcellus gas to cost between 3.50 to 4.00, which is somewhat lower than most other plays.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: bellbucci on August 02, 2012, 11:43:52 AM
Looking through the commodities news section on Yahoo Finance I see that there was some bearish news in regards to natural gas due to an unexpectedly high figure for storage buildup....
This is kind of strange. 28 Bcf injection at this time of year is still pretty low, and the numbers for the last five months point toward a 2012 high which is well under the 5 year average.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 02, 2012, 11:44:24 AM
Who is they? How do they define break even? IRR? Drilling costs alone?

I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

...

Don't have that in my pocket this moment.  I have read reports from different sources comparing total costs for various plays in N. America, and they consistently show Marcellus gas to cost between 3.50 to 4.00, which is somewhat lower than most other plays.
>>>> CF, a little while back I posted an estimate by an expert in these matters who works for Societe Generale who claimed that the overall break even for Marcellus wells is around $1.90.  Others here pointed out that he might not be accounting for all costs with that estimate.  Since I'm not an experienced accountant with expertise in the oil and gas industry I'll have to defer to the opinion of others as to the final numbers.  But even as an amateur in these matters I would venture to say that every single natural gas production company has a different break even point, and that every single well also has a different point where profit turns into loss and visa versa.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 02, 2012, 12:08:09 PM
Ruby_99, I agree. Not a big injection.  August, and September are rough months though.

Bentek in a report produced for North Dakota did an extensive analysis of IRR of the various plays. They estimate Marcellus Dry at a 3% return at $2.79 gas. AS Mohawk might write, read it. It is good and current. It goes into a lot about the pipelines nationally, and the Natural Gas markets. It was written for North Dakota. They mention that Marcellus to Chicago might have cheaper competition.

Both Ultra Resources, and Exco Petroleum mentioned in their conference calls that they have a high level of confidence that production will start falling off more by the end of the year. It is a normal lag from drilling slowdowns to production decreases.

Ultra Petroleum is "return driven" they will not drill wells to break even for cash flow.

" In order to determine the competitiveness of the major oil and gas producing plays in North America, BENTEK developed a financial model to calculate a representative internal rates of return (IRR) from typical wells in each play. The BENTEK IRR analysis includes data and information from company financials, including financial reports, investor presentations, news releases and transcripts from earnings calls. Producer-reported data is collected for multiple production characteristics and costs, including drilling and completion costs, operating expenses,
initial production rates, BTU content, decline curves, production taxes and royalty rates. The production data is then reviewed in order to determine a representative set of assumptions for each play. IRRs allow for an apples-to-apples comparison of well economics between dry gas, wet gas and oil plays and are used to analyze how sensitive returns are to changes in gas prices, oil prices, NGL prices, drilling costs and initial production rates. It is important to note that the analysis does not take into account full-cycle exploration and production costs, which typically include costs for acreage acquisition and exploration. BENTEK considers these expenses
to be sunk costs
."

http://ndpipelines.wordpress.com/natural-gas-study/ The link is on this webpage.

Sorry Chicken Farmer for the challenge. Just listening to a lot of company conference calls. Break even is likely going down even more from wherever it is.

Every recent quarterly is mentioning more reductions in drilling costs.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 02, 2012, 12:38:55 PM
I'm shocked out of my socks that Exxon-Mobil is not pushing NG as a transportation fuel!!

I mean, whoever would have guessed something like that!   Blue Laugh   Blue Laugh

[give me a break]
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 02, 2012, 02:23:42 PM
I'm shocked out of my socks that Exxon-Mobil is not pushing NG as a transportation fuel!!

I mean, whoever would have guessed something like that!   Blue Laugh   Blue Laugh

[give me a break]
>>>> We import about half of our oil consumption.  On the other hand the US has enough natural gas to be self sufficient in all respects including using natural gas for transportation and to export.  To keep up present levels of oil imports is inevitably going to require a series of wars in a world of increasing rivalry over scarce oil supplies.  Which is what the Iraq adventure was its heart, not the removal of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship or his imaginary weapons of mass destruction or ties to Al Qaeda.  Care to figure out what the tax rates will have to be if we've got a series of wars over oil going on as well as the human cost?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 02:34:44 PM
"They estimate Marcellus Dry at a 3% return at $2.79 gas"

A lot of good insights.  But 3% is probably a bit low for their cost of money or IRR.

Nonetheless, even if cost is $2.79, selling at 3 bucks is not worth their while.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: realman on August 02, 2012, 03:37:11 PM
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8113323
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: duffy on August 02, 2012, 04:05:57 PM
Don't worry Walt, Rock will figure it out.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 02, 2012, 04:13:48 PM
Realman,The article is a bit out of date. Some of the current reports are indicating that problems are arising as hedges are unwinding. The hedges they had back in March were higher than replacement cost of new hedges.

The Marcellus wet gas play comes out at 24% IRR given the assumptions in the report. With what appears to be an over supply in NGL's the price assumptions might be effected. Some companies leave the Ethane in the streaminstead of stripping it out, but that hurts the return.

The Bentek report assumes a 10% cost of capital.

One of the CEO's, maybe Exco maybe Ultra, expressed the opinion that a company  with acreage like Cabot can make money even at $2.50 gas. EQT might fall into that category also, but they have also been trying to get wetter production.

In William's conference call they mentioned that they currently have 2 pad capable rigs, and will be moving a 3'rd built for the purpose to Susquehanna in August. November.


The article in Platts. "Marcellus gas producers see opportunities despite current low prices" March 27, 2012
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 02, 2012, 06:19:34 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/marcellus-shale-price-drops-stand-out-amongst-august-natural-gas-bidweek-gains-ngi-reports-2012-08-02 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/marcellus-shale-price-drops-stand-out-amongst-august-natural-gas-bidweek-gains-ngi-reports-2012-08-02)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 02, 2012, 07:07:11 PM
Don't worry Walt, Rock will figure it out.

Naw, me not worried.

It's just academic for us New Yorkers.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 03, 2012, 11:05:04 AM
Today's movement correlates to the Dow and Oil market, so don't read too much into it.
....

Spoke too soon.

Market indices up 2% today.  Oil up 4 bucks, Henry Hub down.  Yikes!
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 03, 2012, 12:08:47 PM
Today's movement correlates to the Dow and Oil market, so don't read too much into it.
....

Spoke too soon.

Market indices up 2% today.  Oil up 4 bucks, Henry Hub down.  Yikes!

Yeah.  Off thirty cents in just a few days.  That's roughly a 10% haircut.   :(

Sure hope things get back on right track really soon.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 10, 2012, 08:12:01 AM
Price down another 11 cents.

Now at $2.79 heading south.  :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Berkeley on August 14, 2012, 04:54:41 AM
This is a case if we should have been careful what we wished for. We now have unlimited supply. We are even dumping ng from public lands on the market to compete with ours. There may be occasional spikes based on current events or a little manipulation by the oil companies but  the days of getting rich from ng royalties are gone. It is time to switch investment to companies that make money from transportation and processing of ng or who benefit from cheap natural gas prices.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 14, 2012, 06:05:03 AM
This is a case if we should have been careful what we wished for. We now have unlimited supply. We are even dumping ng from public lands on the market to compete with ours. There may be occasional spikes based on current events or a little manipulation by the oil companies but  the days of getting rich from ng royalties are gone. It is time to switch investment to companies that make money from transportation and processing of ng or who benefit from cheap natural gas prices.
>>>> I agree with what you have written.  I think that it is downstream of the producing gas wells, in between them and the ultimate consumer where the money is being made these days.  And that situation of high profits for the middlemen and large scale industrial users and tiny profits for the producers is likely to continue until natural gas becomes a significant transportation fuel and we have the facilities to export surplus gas as LNG.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 14, 2012, 06:26:19 AM
Yup

Now we (non-farming) landowners can sense what it's like to be a farmer.  Farmers assume all the risks and do all the hard work . . . . somebody else makes the big money.   :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 14, 2012, 06:38:40 AM
As long as the farmers can keep their land, the rest is not too important.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: chasgas on August 14, 2012, 08:17:50 AM
we're knocking on the door to energy independence... wouldn't it be great to see the U.S. demand rise with the increased production of ng? transform industry, transportation, heating, electricity, etc. and allow all americans to take advantage of this homegrown recourse... pipe dream/protectionist? probably, but power america first, then make them pay (lng export) as i've witnessed us doing for years now...

just my opinion........

chasgas
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Berkeley on August 14, 2012, 09:37:14 AM
we're knocking on the door to energy independence... wouldn't it be great to see the U.S. demand rise with the increased production of ng? transform industry, transportation, heating, electricity, etc. and allow all americans to take advantage of this homegrown recourse... pipe dream/protectionist? probably, but power america first, then make them pay (lng export) as i've witnessed us doing for years now...

just my opinion........

chasgas

Chas, companies are in business to make money. Further, the oil and gas companies that now own most of the leases in the US are multinational companies. They have no interest in the US being energy independent and even the US companies are not going to sell locally for $3 when they get get $6 if they export. Even if they did, the $3 buyer would turn around and export it and make an immediate $3 profit. That is the way markets work. If it can be transported, it will be transported to the market with the highest price. The only way it wont flow to the highest priced market is to make it illegal to export and that isnt going to happen.

However, even with the prospect of exporting to higher priced markets, little of that premium is going to trickle down to the lessor. I'm not selling my minerals because i believe in keeping surface and minerals together. I also believe mineral buyers low ball it even if it is permanantly a $3 market. But i have revised my expectations on the future royalties as an investment upon which ti rely.





Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Berkeley on August 14, 2012, 09:45:02 AM
The only way i see it succeeding to bring a moderately high price as a transportation fuel and a power generation fuel is if carbon emssions rules make it the most economical fuel even at a decent ( from the ng sellers point of view) price. I dont see that happening in the next 10 years.


Please show me that i am wrong. I hope i am wrong.  I soothe myself by saying the oil companies would not have bought all the ng leases unless they saw gold. Then i think no, they just bought up the ng to keep it off the market as a cheap alternative to gasoline.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: chasgas on August 14, 2012, 01:58:34 PM
berk,

i agree that product goes where the economics dictate but "wouldn't it be great"?  :)

electrical transitioning is taking place as we speak... i agree that transportation looks to be a very long haul... unfortunate, we should be using the cleanest fuel that would meet our demands *now*... idealist, you betcha...

time will tell how this all progresses...

chasgas



 



 
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 14, 2012, 03:05:21 PM
Sounds great. I agree. Declare it a strategic resource. Support use, and limit exports. Now we have a problem. What about the Ethane, Propane and Diluent exports? Diesel, and Gasoline? Stop the flaring of associated gas. Drillers, get over it and make it work. Wasteful.

We do need more storage at the very least. That is the only way to avoid these large price moves. Storage in pipelines does not cut it. If we have an early average temperature winter we will have price spikes again. No way around it. Storage is along the lines of less than 60 days use, If I remember correctly. Futures settlement prices:

2010 Jan 5.81 Apr 3.84 Jul 4.71 Sep 3.65 Nov 3.29 Dec 4.26
2011 Mar 3.79 May 4.37 Sep 3.85 Dec 3.36
2012 May 2.03 July 2.77 Aug 3.01

Reality is that we will have more LNG exports . They will have minimal impact. Coal use is the only thing which can depress Natural Gas prices in the next 2 or 3 years. If regulations move ahead as they are, we will have higher Natural Gas use, and higher prices. Just my opinions.

P.S. Nice to see some new posters......

we're knocking on the door to energy independence... wouldn't it be great to see the U.S. demand rise with the increased production of ng? transform industry, transportation, heating, electricity, etc. and allow all americans to take advantage of this homegrown recourse... pipe dream/protectionist? probably, but power america first, then make them pay (lng export) as i've witnessed us doing for years now...

just my opinion........

chasgas
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 14, 2012, 04:45:19 PM
Curiosity on my part, why are some folks against LNG exports?

We export coal, timber, nuclear, why not methane?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Berkeley on August 14, 2012, 04:56:03 PM
Curiosity on my part, why are some folks against LNG exports?

We export coal, timber, nuclear, why not methane?

Sort of sinks the idea of ng making the us energy indepndent.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Dogbone on August 14, 2012, 05:31:08 PM
Curiosity on my part, why are some folks against LNG exports?

We export coal, timber, nuclear, why not methane?

Sort of sinks the idea of ng making the us energy indepndent.

Exactly!  The same thoughts I expressed in other threads when the subject came up.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 14, 2012, 05:41:18 PM
Curiosity on my part, why are some folks against LNG exports?

We export coal, timber, nuclear, why not methane?

Sort of sinks the idea of ng making the us energy indepndent.
>>>> I don't see why that would necessarily be the case.  The United States since colonial days was exporting agricultural goods of all kinds yet it never has failed to meet the basic needs for food and fiber of its own population.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: chasgas on August 14, 2012, 06:24:17 PM
rock, the point is we're awash in ng and are presently setup to utilize so little... i sat at the energy now rally and listened to a guy that filled up his ford transit, in his own garage mind you, at the equivalent of .88 cents per gallon before driving down from syracuse... imagine the effects of that countrywide... transportation is only the beginning... cars, trucks, trains and planes, the economics, the benefits to the atmosphere... just the tip of the "gasberg"...

now consider who benefits from exporting our gas? comparatively?

we finally have an alternative to importing petroleum, re-tool and utilize it!

look, i'm just thinking out loud here but wouldn't (shouldn't) it be great? :)

chasgas   

note to self: stick with avoiding debates..................... :) :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: macal on August 14, 2012, 06:49:10 PM

  Jump in Chas.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Berkeley on August 14, 2012, 07:05:05 PM
Chas, i go along with the wouldnt it be great part. When resources are extracted from one place removing that value permanently and sticking that place with the down side of the extraction process, and then the good part is exported to another place and the dollar value is accrued to absentee owners - that's what we call a colony. If we follow that model with ng, it's a sort of colonial exploitation situation. But then again, it is in my short term financial interest for the ng to be sold at the highest possible price. The decisions will be made by multinationals looking for the highest price. But in a way, yes, it would be nice.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: eupany on August 14, 2012, 07:13:05 PM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: 770n on August 15, 2012, 03:44:15 AM
Curiosity on my part, why are some folks against LNG exports?

We export coal, timber, nuclear, why not methane?

Because the export of natural resources is the mark of a third world country.  Use everything here like in the past instead of selling it to China and making NOTHING.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: cmp on August 15, 2012, 03:57:20 AM
Already the prospect of advantaged and abundant U.S. gas has sparked domestic investment in many manufacturing industries, such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, glass, aluminum and steel. These investments will convert natural gas to products for export that deliver up to eight-times greater value than simply exporting the gas itself because American manufacturers use natural gas both as a fuel source and as a raw material to create high-value products. This initial use of natural gas begins a chain reaction that stimulates investment, creates jobs and strengthens the economy well beyond what gas production and export alone can achieve.

Take the U.S. chemical industry for example. The American Chemistry Council estimates that a 25 percent increase in the production of shale gas and ethane would create more than 400,000 new jobs along the entire value chain, $16 million in investment, more than $130 billion in economic output and $4.4 billion in new tax revenues.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 16, 2012, 06:57:29 PM
Tsk tsk

Shame on you.  Yes, I'm pointing at you:

While you were off today tending to other matters and not paying attention. . . .

the NG price fell further.  It is now down to $2.71.   :(

You do realize, don't you, that this is your fault.

Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on August 16, 2012, 06:59:35 PM
......but.. but I told Chas to keep any eye on that darn thing...
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 20, 2012, 04:16:54 AM
For today, August 20, 2012, neutral to bearish:

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-08/natural-gas-technical-daily-outlook(9).aspx?storyid=165218 (http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-08/natural-gas-technical-daily-outlook(9).aspx?storyid=165218)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Greene12468 on August 20, 2012, 10:17:44 AM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.

Historically, there has often been a downside.  Look at the oil fields of Nigeria or the coal fields of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Look at central Colorado - much better off than the previously mentioned places, but a lot of the prosperity there comes from second homes and tourists, not from mineral extraction any more. 

It takes hard work to mitigate the downside.  It can be done, and PA seems to be doing a good job of it, but it should never be taken for granted that only an upside will exist.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: mohawk70 on August 20, 2012, 10:29:06 AM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.

Historically, there has often been a downside.  Look at the oil fields of Nigeria or the coal fields of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Look at central Colorado - much better off than the previously mentioned places, but a lot of the prosperity there comes from second homes and tourists, not from mineral extraction any more. 

It takes hard work to mitigate the downside.  It can be done, and PA seems to be doing a good job of it, but it should never be taken for granted that only an upside will exist.


North Dakota doing pretty well.

New York State ... no so much:

http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on August 20, 2012, 10:41:32 AM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.

Historically, there has often been a downside.  Look at the oil fields of Nigeria or the coal fields of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Look at central Colorado - much better off than the previously mentioned places, but a lot of the prosperity there comes from second homes and tourists, not from mineral extraction any more. 

It takes hard work to mitigate the downside.  It can be done, and PA seems to be doing a good job of it, but it should never be taken for granted that only an upside will exist.


North Dakota doing pretty well.

New York State ... no so much:

http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

Shame on you, mohawk70.  That's a most unfair and unkind comment.  You know darn well the people of North Dakota are much smarter than the residents of downstate New York who, nevertheless, run New York's show.  New York is doing its best under really difficult circumstances.  The burden of stupidity is heavy to bear.

 
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: mohawk70 on August 20, 2012, 12:29:29 PM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.

Historically, there has often been a downside.  Look at the oil fields of Nigeria or the coal fields of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Look at central Colorado - much better off than the previously mentioned places, but a lot of the prosperity there comes from second homes and tourists, not from mineral extraction any more. 

It takes hard work to mitigate the downside.  It can be done, and PA seems to be doing a good job of it, but it should never be taken for granted that only an upside will exist.


North Dakota doing pretty well.

New York State ... no so much:

http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

Shame on you, mohawk70.  That's a most unfair and unkind comment.  You know darn well the people of North Dakota are much smarter than the residents of downstate New York who, nevertheless, run New York's show.  New York is doing its best under really difficult circumstances.  The burden of stupidity is heavy to bear.

 


I apologize.

You are correct.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: chasgas on August 20, 2012, 12:44:04 PM
Berkeley.....What is the downside of extraction???   Bring me the downside that PA has!  High bonus payments. Actual drilling!  Actual royalties!  High property values, high rents. rebuilt roads!
I don't see the downside. Only the NY media and the "do as I say not do as I do greenies" say there is a downside.

Historically, there has often been a downside.  Look at the oil fields of Nigeria or the coal fields of West Virginia and Kentucky.  Look at central Colorado - much better off than the previously mentioned places, but a lot of the prosperity there comes from second homes and tourists, not from mineral extraction any more. 

It takes hard work to mitigate the downside.  It can be done, and PA seems to be doing a good job of it, but it should never be taken for granted that only an upside will exist.


pa has yet to hit its peak... as gas reservoirs are diminished, downside will inevitably be felt...

chasgas
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: flyfisher on August 22, 2012, 03:57:58 AM

So, when does the heating season begin in New England? :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Rockdale on August 22, 2012, 04:11:04 AM

So, when does the heating season begin in New England? :)
>>>> I recall reading a book that was discussing the weather experienced in the high hills of southern Vermont.  One person asked if it was true that there was winter 12 months of the year in that region.  The reply was that there was winter for 11 months and one month of mighty cool weather.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: climber1 on August 22, 2012, 05:20:52 AM
There were frost warnings in the Adirondacks a couple nights ago.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: realman on August 22, 2012, 09:42:31 AM
 CNBC,had T-Boone Pickens on this morning he is pretty confident that Natural Gas will $4.00 by end of this year and oil and gasoline will be higher also.The natural gas because it is starting to come into more demand,but the oil and gasoline because of the potential trouble in the middle east.He said if Isreal attacks Iran there will be a sike in oil prices immediately ?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 22, 2012, 12:20:06 PM
No doubt on the Iran oil spike. Just listened to part of the Oil & Gas Journal's midyear update. Apparently Iran is exporting about 2 million barrels a day. Not sure if that was up to date this month to reflect any results from the sanctions.

 Also indicated there was about a 2.4 million B/d of quick excess supply capacity. Just guessing, until tomorrow, but net injection could reflect continued coal generation to Nat Gas generation shift from historical. Maybe around 30  injection. Wild guess. If there is some sort of quick coal spot price move in response to the EPA air quality court temporary SETBACK , that will be great for Nat Gas going towards winter. From what I read, we are well below the Nat Gas/coal price ratio where it is cheaper to run Gas. Need an average winter. (And more storage capacity.)
 
CNBC,had T-Boone Pickens on this morning he is pretty confident that Natural Gas will $4.00 by end of this year and oil and gasoline will be higher also.The natural gas because it is starting to come into more demand,but the oil and gasoline because of the potential trouble in the middle east.He said if Isreal attacks Iran there will be a sike in oil prices immediately ?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: flyfisher on August 23, 2012, 01:15:52 PM

How could Huricane Isaac affect the supply of natural gas from the Gulf Region?   If there is a disruption in NG supply, what impact will there be to NG prices?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on August 23, 2012, 03:15:12 PM
Apparently the Gulf still produces about 10 % of our Natural Gas. If a Hurricane was bad enough, production can be shut down. Short term impact of higher prices in some regions is likely the only risk. Not sure if it would help with prices in NE Pennsylvania.


How could Huricane Isaac affect the supply of natural gas from the Gulf Region?   If there is a disruption in NG supply, what impact will there be to NG prices?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on September 07, 2012, 02:31:44 PM
NG price was off nine cents today.  It is down to $2.69.   :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: flyfisher on September 10, 2012, 08:16:08 AM

Weather check...how`s the weather in New England?   Maybe some frost...maybe a threat of snow in the forecast :)       Just wondering and hoping!
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: aubrey on September 10, 2012, 10:22:03 AM
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

looking at the storage graph, it seems to confirm my post from about a month ago that injection rates are dropping off.

another week or 2 and we will be in the normal range instead of the dire "nowhere left to put it" predictions for october that were being made back in the summer. and the drawdown starts in october.

any conclusions here? shinobi?

are we seeing the effects of the drop in rig count, declines and shutins?

also. spot prices, though given to much wider swings than contract prices have recently been much higher than contract prices. for instance as i type this, although the n.y. city gate spot has dropped $0.28 today, it is still a nickel higher than the nymex. and lately, its been swinging up alot before the close of trading each day. not as much spot gas out there?

are we seeing the beginning of the end of the glut?

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on September 10, 2012, 11:27:43 AM
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

looking at the storage graph, it seems to confirm my post from about a month ago that injection rates are dropping off.

another week or 2 and we will be in the normal range instead of the dire "nowhere left to put it" predictions for october that were being made back in the summer. and the drawdown starts in october.

any conclusions here? shinobi?

are we seeing the effects of the drop in rig count, declines and shutins?

also. spot prices, though given to much wider swings than contract prices have recently been much higher than contract prices. for instance as i type this, although the n.y. city gate spot has dropped $0.28 today, it is still a nickel higher than the nymex. and lately, its been swinging up alot before the close of trading each day. not as much spot gas out there?

are we seeing the beginning of the end of the glut?

wj

You're asking little old me for conclusions, wj!!?

I'm just out here, head down, trying my darnedest to avoid the line of fire, and hoping for the best . . . pretty much like everyone else.  And right now it ain't looking all that great.  But that has nothing to do with NG so I'm gonna stop right here . . . . . . . . . . . .

ETA

To keep this just a little on topic:

Gas has recovered to $2.76.  I guess what I'm doing is working.   ;D
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: aubrey on September 10, 2012, 02:24:49 PM
an opinion perhaps?

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: vicnaylor on September 10, 2012, 03:50:48 PM
Nothing useful to add, but weeks ago WJ, you did point out a persistent stickiness at $2.82 on the Nymex. After shooting well above 3 bucks for a time, it came right back to that level, held for a bit, then undershot, and now it's back at $2.82.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: aubrey on September 10, 2012, 04:59:52 PM
the 3 bucks of course was the heatwave, a temporary bump, but it also ate up a bunch of extra gas.

after the heatwave there was likely a short time before gascos cut back and so it undershot and bounced around a little.

im sure its gonna be a bouncy ride leading up to winter, but its close now, we'll soon know where we stand as far as the future value of an mcf. and whether there really is as much of a glut as the pundits have told us.

wj

Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: BartMan on September 10, 2012, 05:19:21 PM
I can see it reaching $7 this winter...and if things go right in the elections..they'll lock it in for awhile....then Drill Baby Drill!

Just a hunch! :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: g592314 on September 11, 2012, 03:54:52 AM
wow, and i thought i was an optimist ;D!
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on September 11, 2012, 05:33:07 AM
an opinion perhaps?

wj

I've no clue.  Wish I did.  Bart's $7.00 prognostication sounds really good to me!!   :)

One thing:

I believe the election outcome (both presidential and congressional) will impact.  Not sure how.  But it has the potential to be big.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: shinobi on September 11, 2012, 09:03:24 AM
NG now up to $2.96.  Gotta love it.  Don't know why.  :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: aubrey on September 11, 2012, 09:39:53 AM
NG now up to $2.96.  Gotta love it.  Don't know why.  :)

im real sure it isnt because of another heatwave.

pretty cold here this morning on the hill, but we cant get n.g..

how cold was it in n.j. and n.y.c.?

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: leaseNY on September 11, 2012, 10:45:36 AM
Good explanation, combination of factors as usual, but forecast show colder winter on way

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120910-711053.html
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: flyfisher on September 11, 2012, 03:56:52 PM

NG > $3.00   :D
Title: Re: NG = $3.00
Post by: aubrey on September 11, 2012, 04:13:56 PM
i got 3 even.

$3.000 to be precise.

not to put too fine a point on it though.

wj
Title: Re: NG near to $3.00 Yippee!!
Post by: chasgas on September 12, 2012, 06:53:22 AM
bit like the weather... few nice days followed by a few days of not so nice... 90% of the "experts" talking to the media say ng is anchored to the bottom for the foreseeable future... $7.00 this winter? hopefully $4-$4.50... my opinion......................

chasgas
Title: Re: NG near to $3.00 Yippee!!
Post by: Rockdale on September 12, 2012, 06:59:15 AM
Those numbers of course are the national gas market figures.  Perhaps a bigger question would be when the pipeline capacity and/or local large scale users of gas will come into being in the very low priced gas production region served by the Tennessee Pipeline that will bring up the local price to the national level and hopefully a little bit better.  As Donegal's recent posting of an interview with some officials from Carizzo showed, that company was realizing in its sales in its operating region in Pennsylvania a price of just $1.55 in a recent period.
Title: Re: NG near to $3.00 Yippee!!
Post by: bellbucci on September 12, 2012, 08:10:10 AM
Here's an article (http://seekingalpha.com/article/861071-haynesville-shale-production-increased-in-june-according-to-latest-data-part-i) at seekingalpha.com that focuses on Haynesville production and implications for the other shale plays. There's a part II as well.

Indeed, if production from a very large economically marginal field (that accounts for close to 9% of total Lower 48 production) is not showing signs of decline, it is difficult to expect volume contraction from more economic fields.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 Yippee!!
Post by: shinobi on September 12, 2012, 11:15:19 AM
$3.04 and rising.   ;D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 Yippee!!
Post by: flyfisher on September 13, 2012, 02:07:29 PM

Will the Fed`s action today cause lower mortgage interest rates, with an increase in house building, resulting in more NG consumption for both heating and electricity?   I think there`s a chill in the air tonight...  :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: shinobi on September 18, 2012, 01:36:05 PM


$2.77   :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: flyfisher on September 18, 2012, 01:40:30 PM

I think we are officially in the heating season now.  Right? :D
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: BartMan on September 18, 2012, 01:46:36 PM
It just fell off their lap...they'll pick it back up again!...Hopefully..at least after the elections at the latest!
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: Rockdale on September 18, 2012, 01:56:57 PM

I think we are officially in the heating season now.  Right? :D
>>>> In the very coldest parts of the United States such as Alaska, the northern Rockies, the Adirondacks, etc. the heaters are starting to kick in.  Probably as a national average the heating season doesn't begin till mid October or November 1 in terms of degree days.  With the unexpectedly rapid turnover of the electrical generation industry from coal to gas, as witnessed by yet another major layoff at a coal mining company (Alpha Natural Resources), I think the demand for natural gas is going to be affected more by the requirement for electricity than the number of degree days.  Electrical consumption has its peaks and valleys, but it is a steadier business than natural gas used to heat buildings.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: shinobi on September 18, 2012, 02:12:41 PM
I'm doing my bit for the cause!  Running an electric space heater today, on and off, just a little bit.

Feels like I'm paying myself!   Blue Laugh

Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: realman on September 18, 2012, 02:54:01 PM
The gas companys should hand out free electric heaters.They could get a return on there money.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: Rockdale on September 18, 2012, 02:57:39 PM
The gas companys should hand out free electric heaters.They could get a return on there money.
>>>> Or take a page from the companies that make razors and razor blades.  Sell the razors cheaply that need expensive blades.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: aubrey on September 20, 2012, 03:26:35 PM
back at $2.82 again.

weird.

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: chasgas on September 21, 2012, 07:41:04 AM
gage says the GGE price locally jumped a dime over the last few days...

where's the glut?

chasgas
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: aubrey on September 21, 2012, 07:45:00 AM
i think it's still there, but i also think that it's fading.

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: flyfisher on September 22, 2012, 04:17:59 AM

NG price is $3.07 and rising again...the Fall season arrives today  :D
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: shinobi on September 23, 2012, 04:19:26 PM

NG price is $3.07 and rising again...the Fall season arrives today  :D

Interesting post.

I first read your post right after it went up yesterday.  As OP I did what you would have expected me to do.  I went over to Bloomberg.com and checked the price in preparation for changing this thread's title back to the "good news" side - so everyone would know.

Trouble is, Bloomberg did not confirm your price.  Bloomberg had the price still at $2.89.  So I waited a day:

Just went over to Bloomberg again figuring by now they have had a chance to update.  Their price, even today, remains at $2.89.

There are a great many different NG prices.  This thread uses the NYMEX price as published on Bloomberg.com.  And as of this moment, that price remains south of $3.00.   :(
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: realman on September 23, 2012, 04:41:27 PM
http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en#NATURAL_GAS_TEXT
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: shinobi on September 23, 2012, 05:14:31 PM
Price just changed to $2.90.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/)

I think the NYMEX might have Sunday evening trading because the markets are opening about now over in the Far East.  It's very roughly twelve hours later over there than it is here.  Here right now it is "almost tomorrow".  Over there it actually is tomorrow!  :)
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: Isheoktoday on September 23, 2012, 05:38:09 PM
November contract was 3.07 on Friday. I took note of the price when posted. Still doing pretty well in my opinion.
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: aubrey on September 23, 2012, 06:01:41 PM
futures:
month   price       change   low      high
Oct 12  2.8900  0.0930  2.7900  2.8990 
Nov 12  3.0720  0.1100  2.9500  3.0790 
Dec 12  3.3550  0.1050  3.2400  3.3660 
Jan 13  3.5060  0.1040  3.3900  3.5180 
Feb 13  3.5340  0.1000  3.4230  3.5450 
Mar 13  3.5160  0.0920  3.4140  3.5280 
Apr 13  3.4980  0.0770  3.4120  3.5190 
May 13  3.5430  0.0790  3.4600  3.5540 
Jun 13  3.5870  0.0780  3.5030  3.6020 
Jul 13  3.6250  0.0710  3.5500  3.6450 
Aug 13  3.6480  0.0720  3.5830  3.6640 
Sep 13  3.6500  0.0720  3.5840  3.6670
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: aubrey on September 23, 2012, 06:06:01 PM
did anyone else notice that as the prices declined several months ago the sales prices for the producers were higher each month than the nymex, but now, on the way up they are lower?

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: flyfisher on September 26, 2012, 12:12:35 PM

NG price at $3.02...are we seeing the surge towards higher prices now?
Title: Re: NG < $3.00 (Groan)
Post by: flyfisher on September 26, 2012, 04:37:21 PM

$3.19 and climbing  :D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on September 26, 2012, 05:14:50 PM

$3.19 and climbing  :D

Appreciate the heads up, flyfisher.  Thanks!

Yup, you are 100% correct.  I just checked Bloomberg and found a price of $3.20!   ;D

This is certainly good news.  Maybe the weather??

Anyway and regardless, I have changed the thread title to reflect this new reality, as now appears to be my duty.  I hope the price remains over $3.00 . . there is less work for me that way.  :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on September 26, 2012, 05:29:36 PM
Uh, OK.  I get it.  Now I know how those substitute NFL officials so often feel.  Anyway:

"After further review", it might not be the weather  :-[:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-26/natural-gas-futures-climb-to-two-week-high-on-inventory-outlook (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-26/natural-gas-futures-climb-to-two-week-high-on-inventory-outlook)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 26, 2012, 06:20:22 PM
that $3.21 on bloomberg appears suspect. not sure whats going on, but not long before the close bloomberg had gas at around 3.02, the same as other sites i check.

unless it was aftermarket trading, it may be an error.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-26/natural-gas-pipelines-to-expand-u-dot-s-dot-supply-glut-energy-markets

that bloomberg article from today also has gas at $3.02.

"Natural gas for October delivery rose 9.9 cents, or 3.4 percent, to settle at $3.023 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have gained 1.1 percent this year."

gotta check in the morning to see what may have happened.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on September 27, 2012, 03:15:31 AM

Bloomberg Commodities Futures.....NG @ $3.245 this morning :D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: g592314 on September 27, 2012, 03:37:24 AM
that matches the iphone oil-price.net app price 8)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 03:44:29 AM
hmm

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: jrichardk on September 27, 2012, 04:06:58 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/u-s-natural-gas-trades-near-two-week-high-on-inventory-outlook.html
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: g592314 on September 27, 2012, 04:29:51 AM
hmm

wj

... it's an old iphone (don't be to ashamed of me  ;D)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 04:58:47 AM
 Blue Laugh

nah, im just trying to sort out the discrepancy, i think i got it.

it looks like october contracts closed out at the end of the trading day yesterday.

what we're seeing now is the november prices and thats the reason for the big jump.

i remember seeing that happen a year or so ago whenever the front month changed.

usually front months close on the last business day of the month so i could be wrong.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 05:08:37 AM
ok, scratch that last business day, i was wrong.

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/gasprice.html

"Last Trading Day
Natural Gas Futures: Trading terminates three business days prior to the first calendar day of the delivery month."

so at the close of trading yesterday, bloomberg started listing november trade prices. thats why it jumped, and thats why the $3.02 price is still on some sites. when trading resumes this morning they should all agree.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 05:34:39 AM
gas opened at $3.257 this morning, up $0.042.

where we goin' now?

gonna change the name of this thread to "NG< $4.00" obi wan?  ;)

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on September 27, 2012, 05:50:36 AM
gas opened at $3.257 this morning, up $0.042.

where we goin' now?

gonna change the name of this thread to "NG< $4.00" obi wan?  ;)

wj

I realize you are teasing me, but it's something I'm considering.  For now, though, I'm just gonna wait a little while and see where things go.  As you know better than anyone, this price has is ups . . . . . and its downs.

At this point I've not taken for granted a price north of three bucks.  However, it's something I'll be delighted to take for granted in future.  :)

 

Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 06:01:19 AM
i resemble that remark!

i dont never tease nobody.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on September 27, 2012, 06:34:28 AM
i resemble that remark!

i dont never tease nobody.

wj

Acknowledged

Here's the thing about this wonderful price trend:

Will the gascos show restraint?  Will they have the sense not to jump in with both feet in effort to make a couple of short term bucks, at the expense of the intermediate term?

My take:

The stronger and smarter companies will show restraint.  The poorer and dumber companies will be unable to keep in check their animal instincts.

Any guesses as to which companies fall into each category?  Which companies can be relied upon to mess this up for all the others, and for royalty owners, too?

Right now we got a good thing going!!  Which company is gonna screw this up?
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 06:57:53 AM
i think you need look no further than whats going on right now.

cabot is shipping every mcf that they can squeeze into williams' pipes to market, but they are getting a nice price too. they never slowed down in fact.

chk otoh, has held their wells to 8 a day over the last year plus and currently has more wells shut in than they have producing.

the rig count is down, lotsa wells shut in, storage injections are flattening out and the drawdown begins in a week or so. gas in storage is only a couple of months supply anyway and it looks like a shortage is shaping up if we have a normal winter.

pricing in this game is always gonna be cyclical, it looks like we bottomed several months back, only question is how high will this upswing go.

another takeaway from this down part of the cycle for future reference at least is how all of those dire predictions of storage being over full next month have evaporated so quickly. it didnt take much for the industry to react did it, and no one seemed to have recognized it either.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on September 27, 2012, 10:47:59 AM

Bloomberg Commodities Futures Report @ 1:50pm today....NG @ $3.301  :D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Chicken Farmer on September 27, 2012, 01:42:19 PM
......another takeaway from this down part of the cycle for future reference at least is how all of those dire predictions of storage being over full next month have evaporated so quickly. it didnt take much for the industry to react did it, and no one seemed to have recognized it either.

wj

I also noticed this industry behavior.  The long term futures contracts fluctuate completely in tune with the short term market.  It seems that no one has workable long term models to predict the market.

I have not followed other commodities, so do not know if they also behave that way.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 27, 2012, 02:55:05 PM
im pretty sure walt, that in any market the same business principles prevail.

dont wanna pay? we're not gonna produce.

or, as a friend of mine likes to say, no ticky no washy.

 ;)
 wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Berkeley on September 27, 2012, 06:02:01 PM
How do we lessors have any sayso about when the gas is produced and sold? I have none. I have never seen a lease where the lessor did. It's all about what benefits the lessee at the moment. I hope they produce my gas when price is high but they will be producing somebodies when price of gas is low.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Chicken Farmer on September 27, 2012, 06:39:04 PM
Yep, if it's not in the addendum, it's their play.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Berkeley on September 27, 2012, 07:37:18 PM
Yep, if it's not in the addendum, it's their play.

Can you show me a sample addendum where the landowner decides when the gas will be sold? I have never seen this.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Chicken Farmer on September 28, 2012, 04:00:53 AM
Never seen it either.  Therefore it's their play.

Anyone with better ideas?
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 28, 2012, 09:47:39 AM
closest you'll find i think would be an "in kind" royalty walt.

but then you gotta sell it yourself.

i'll be happy to let them market my gas when they feel its best. they've been doing this stuff for a long time and they got lotsa smart young folks who are out for only one thing...to make as much as they can for their company.

in that regard, my interests will be in alignment with my lessee.

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Chicken Farmer on September 28, 2012, 10:36:08 AM
"i'll be happy to let them market my gas when they feel its best"


That should work most of the time, assuming that you have eliminated potential for their self dealings.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Isheoktoday on September 28, 2012, 11:21:37 AM
I have only heard of 1 landowner around here who tried to partner in their acreage being developed. It costs a lot of money for this process to be successful. Hire some staff, take out some loans, and pay contractors to drill. How long could you hold your gas? What if you are wrong and prices keep going down from "your" price minimum. Going to bet your farm.

You decide whether to lease when the time comes. Some who tried to hold out for more  missed that period of leasing. Yes it will hopefully come around again for them, but when?   





Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Berkeley on September 28, 2012, 11:52:54 AM
"i'll be happy to let them market my gas when they feel its best"


That should work most of the time, assuming that you have eliminated potential for their self dealings.

That was my theory. However, the companies have to sell some gas at all times even when prices are low. I am hoping they won't initially develop my lease when the prices are low but it's the luck of the draw I guess.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Isheoktoday on September 28, 2012, 12:04:14 PM
Looks like it is staying above $3.30 as of now.

Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Berkeley on September 28, 2012, 12:23:06 PM
Looks like it is staying above $3.30 as of now.

That's good for those getting royalties now. For the rest of us, it's like the stock market, it only matters what it is the day we sell. I guess I hope my initial month is in the winter. What are the odds of that? Do they bring many wells online in the winter months?
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 28, 2012, 12:24:05 PM
"i'll be happy to let them market my gas when they feel its best"


That should work most of the time, assuming that you have eliminated potential for their self dealings.

now walt...would you think that i would have it any other way?

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on September 28, 2012, 01:32:20 PM

When was the last time NG price was $3.32?  What will next week`s trading do the price?
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: Berkeley on September 28, 2012, 03:17:47 PM

When was the last time NG price was $3.32?  What will next week`s trading do the price?

I predict it will go up as the weather gets colder and then it will gomdown as the wether gets warmer.  ;)
Title: Re: NG > $4.00 (Yippie-ay-oh-kayay!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 28, 2012, 04:26:09 PM
yup, theres a $4+ number in the pricing stats again!

been a while since i noticed 4 bucks so i thought i'd celebrate by hijacking obi wans thread.  ;D

3 Month Avg  3.5737  0.0420 
6 Month Avg  3.6658  0.0430 
12 Month Avg  3.7430  0.0360 
24 Month Avg  3.9389  0.0299 
36 Month Avg  4.0727  0.0277
Peak Avg (Nov12-Mar13)  3.6524  0.0436 
Off-Pk Avg (Apr13-Oct13)  3.8077  0.0306 

guess its not much to celebrate really, but we can hope that its a harbinger of good things to come.

wj
 

Title: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on September 29, 2012, 04:32:18 AM
yup, theres a $4+ number in the pricing stats again!

been a while since i noticed 4 bucks so i thought i'd celebrate by hijacking obi wans thread.  ;D

3 Month Avg  3.5737  0.0420 
6 Month Avg  3.6658  0.0430 
12 Month Avg  3.7430  0.0360 
24 Month Avg  3.9389  0.0299 
36 Month Avg  4.0727  0.0277
Peak Avg (Nov12-Mar13)  3.6524  0.0436 
Off-Pk Avg (Apr13-Oct13)  3.8077  0.0306 

guess its not much to celebrate really, but we can hope that its a harbinger of good things to come.

wj

Gotta admit I like $4+!!  Let's hope that happens sooner rather than later.

As of this morning, though, we are at $3.32;  could be worse and has sure been a lot worse.  Hope we can hold $3.32 and build on it!  ;)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on September 30, 2012, 05:27:58 PM

$3.36 as of 8:30pm Sunday evening September 30  :D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on September 30, 2012, 05:37:05 PM
only $0.64 more and obi wan starts gettin jiggy wid it.

i want stage side tickets for that'n.

wj

Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on October 01, 2012, 03:23:37 AM

NG = $3.37 as of 6:15am on 10/1   :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: shinobi on October 01, 2012, 06:25:01 AM

NG = $3.37 as of 6:15am on 10/1   :)

Thanks, flyfisher!  That's great news.

If price exceeds $3.50 for a short while I will change title . . . . and then $4.00 and so forth at fifty cent intervals.

But that's unimportant.  What is important is that your $3.37 post is very, very sweet!!

[not to mention that as I post this price has risen to $3.41   :)   ]

In my opinion no single factor is more crucial to the welfare of us royalty owners than the price of natural gas.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on October 01, 2012, 07:46:57 AM
10:45 a.m. gas is up $0.15 to $3.47.

get ready to change the title obi wan.

wj
Title: Re: NG < $3.00
Post by: BartMan on October 01, 2012, 08:05:27 AM
I can see it reaching $7 this winter...and if things go right in the elections..they'll lock it in for awhile....then Drill Baby Drill!

Just a hunch! :)

I'm still holdin' to that hunch! :)

Of course I'm in NY...So it does nothing for me...Later maybe!
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: donegal on October 01, 2012, 08:36:20 AM
HEY!!  How about Uncle Ronnie given' us  a  Moving,  ticker tape of O&G related  stocks and commodities?  Maybe some big brokerage house would want to advertise here and maintain the Marlet Ticker Tape.  What would be the minimum that I'd want?  Nat Gas market price.

If he wants to make it part of what a Premium member gets to view.  Right now, a Premium member views less---no ads, but perhaps they would like the market update information as a perk.  Say run the Brokerage House ads on the free site screen, but in order to see the Ticker Tape one must become a Premium member.  Give the Premium member more,......and you may have more of them.


Just a thought,
Donegal

p.s. Remember Ronnie, folks now want that info so they can watch how their Royalty money is doin'---both gettin' paid and gettin' invested.
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on October 01, 2012, 08:59:03 AM
short upward trend underway.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-30/u-dot-s-dot-natural-gas-gains-a-fifth-day-after-supply-forecasts

wj
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: donegal on October 01, 2012, 09:58:31 AM
HEY!!  How about Uncle Ronnie given' us  a  Moving,  ticker tape of O&G related  stocks and commodities?  Maybe some big brokerage house would want to advertise here and maintain the Marlet Ticker Tape.  What would be the minimum that I'd want?  Nat Gas market price.

If he wants to make it part of what a Premium member gets to view.  Right now, a Premium member views less---no ads, but perhaps they would like the market update information as a perk.  Say run the Brokerage House ads on the free site screen, but in order to see the Ticker Tape one must become a Premium member.  Give the Premium member more,......and you may have more of them.


Just a thought,
Donegal

p.s. Remember Ronnie, folks now want that info so they can watch how their Royalty money is doin'---both gettin' paid and gettin' invested.

an...an....and I got more good ideas.  How about MORE perks for the PREMIUM Member?  Such as little background touches to make the Member more comfortable?  Might make them stay on site longer, and maybe even post friendlier, more well thought-out posts.

Like for instance, you could have sights and sounds to choose from:

Cats meowin' for say Point Blank
Chickens cacklin' and crowin' for Chicken Farmer
Jackasses brayin' for ________ you fill in the blank
Wisps of smoke rollin' across the screen for wj
Waves lappin' on the shore with someone in the background sayin', "STOP or I'll shoot" for Duffy
Glass bottles clankin' together for Bartie
Sailors swearin' in their sleep for Ghritter
24 hour News dronin' on for Mohawk
Drill punchin' a well for A. Driller
Mob chantin', "Drill here, drill now" for Virt all of NYS
Chain saw runnin' for chas
Cash Register Bell ringin'  for Ronnie

Huh? How about mine?  Oh I think I hear it now, "Donegal, it's time for your meds." ;D


That's O.K., everyone laughs at my ideas, 'til someone else comes up with 'em,
Donegal
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: aubrey on October 01, 2012, 01:38:44 PM
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/01/winter-of-discontent-seen-ahead-for-canadas-natural-gas-producers/
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: donegal on October 01, 2012, 02:44:47 PM
See. Now I bet that a little soothing background sound and video would go a long way to calmin' folks down, especially when they read bad news.  Can it work miracles?  Dunno', but it would least make wj quiet enough so's he QUIT YELLIN'!!

Quick Ronnie, let's get some soothin' stuff goin' on,
Donegal
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on October 01, 2012, 04:07:07 PM

NG = $3.478 as of 7:05pm on 10/1..... :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: donegal on October 01, 2012, 05:24:47 PM
Thanks for the market update FF.  Guess for now we'll have to settle for this manual posting of Nat Gas Prices.  ;D

Donegal
p.s. Maybe Uncle Ronnie could pay 25 cents to a Poster each time they update the price.  I know it ain't no ticker tape, but ya' gotta' go with what you can afford. :D
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: flyfisher on October 02, 2012, 03:27:29 AM

NG = $3.533 as of 6:30am on 10/2...  :)
Title: Re: NG > $3.00 (Yippie!!)
Post by: donegal on October 02, 2012, 03:51:10 AM
Nice service your doin' FF.

Invoice Ron for 50 cents. Blue Laugh

Donegal
Title: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 02, 2012, 05:11:39 AM

NG = $3.533 as of 6:30am on 10/2...  :)

Thanks flyfisher.  YOU are the man!!

Just checked and it's down a bit to $3.51.  No matter and small potatoes.  Decided to change title anyway.

Sure hope $3.50 is not a turning point and that things continue upward.  But we all know trees don't grow to the sky.  At some level there's gonna be a correction.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 02, 2012, 09:06:40 AM
it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 02, 2012, 09:34:03 AM
it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
I rather see the price stay low. It is a bad economy and many use NG. Those getting royalties are fortunate to do so. Do we hope the price of oil goes up or down?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 02, 2012, 10:07:36 AM
it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
I rather see the price stay low. It is a bad economy and many use NG. Those getting royalties are fortunate to do so. Do we hope the price of oil goes up or down?

i see, very good of you.

so you want prices to stay low until you receive your first royalty check.

thats understandable. mm hm

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 02, 2012, 10:31:36 AM
it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
I rather see the price stay low. It is a bad economy and many use NG. Those getting royalties are fortunate to do so. Do we hope the price of oil goes up or down?

i see, very good of you.

so you want prices to stay low until you receive your first royalty check.

thats understandable. mm hm

wj
Those are your words not mine.
People are barely making ends meet. You can not have it both ways. I will make it if I never see a royalty check. On the other hand people do not need higher utility bills at this point in time. We need to use more of our own energy to heat homes, industry and transportation. Based on what you said : Bonus money is nothing compare to royalties. So I can assume people even at this price are making more than they expected in the first place. And  your not involved either way.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Pops on October 02, 2012, 10:39:06 AM
"it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20."

I would very much like the price at NYC gate to increase every day by $.20 if only to instigate drilling in NY State.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: realman on October 02, 2012, 10:48:06 AM
http://www.philly.com/philly/gallery/100212_shale_production.html
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 02, 2012, 01:06:47 PM
Wax, how many, maybe thousands, of jobs have been lost with the drastic reduction in dry gas drilling? That is a result of prices being low. If gas reaches a level where the companies across the board can make money with Natural Gas, then the rigs will come back. We can not control the weather.

I want there to be high enough prices where the companies will drill more. More jobs, more royalties. More spending in the community. This will also increase the odds of some areas getting wells where they have not YET. 

I would like to see all areas which want drilling to get wells. Don't you?

In my opinion production is going to surpass the record which occurred in November, 2011 I think it was. By the end of the year. I am thinking that the results of the lower rig count are taking longer to lower supply.

it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
I rather see the price stay low. It is a bad economy and many use NG. Those getting royalties are fortunate to do so. Do we hope the price of oil goes up or down?

i see, very good of you.

so you want prices to stay low until you receive your first royalty check.

thats understandable. mm hm

wj
Those are your words not mine.
People are barely making ends meet. You can not have it both ways. I will make it if I never see a royalty check. On the other hand people do not need higher utility bills at this point in time. We need to use more of our own energy to heat homes, industry and transportation. Based on what you said : Bonus money is nothing compare to royalties. So I can assume people even at this price are making more than they expected in the first place. And  your not involved either way.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 02, 2012, 06:23:57 PM
Your comments are well taken. However Southwest said they are making a good return on gas under $3.00. Those rigs are not coming back until the demand is up. A friend of mine in NJ with gas utility pipeline 500 feet away from him could not get gas for years. He told me this afternoon, he and eleven of his neighbors paid $4,000.00 each to have the line extended to their homes. They paid now and the work is expected to be done by spring. They  also contacted the Governor and NJ EPA beforehand and told them Public Service Gas refused to talk to them about a gas line for their homes. Although the rig count is down, output from well is at its high in Pa. Price will only go up to meet high demand or shortage of gas. If drilling ban in NY is lifted .price will fall. Fracking concerns are Natural Gases Middle East conflicts in a unintended way:Or is it in a intended way? 

Wax, how many, maybe thousands, of jobs have been lost with the drastic reduction in dry gas drilling? That is a result of prices being low. If gas reaches a level where the companies across the board can make money with Natural Gas, then the rigs will come back. We can not control the weather.

I want there to be high enough prices where the companies will drill more. More jobs, more royalties. More spending in the community. This will also increase the odds of some areas getting wells where they have not YET. 

I would like to see all areas which want drilling to get wells. Don't you?

In my opinion production is going to surpass the record which occurred in November, 2011 I think it was. By the end of the year. I am thinking that the results of the lower rig count are taking longer to lower supply.

it's nice to see the spot markets climbing today behind the futures. n.y. city gate is up $0.20.

a portion of a months royalties are derived from spot sales usually.

wj
I rather see the price stay low. It is a bad economy and many use NG. Those getting royalties are fortunate to do so. Do we hope the price of oil goes up or down?

i see, very good of you.

so you want prices to stay low until you receive your first royalty check.

thats understandable. mm hm

wj
Those are your words not mine.
People are barely making ends meet. You can not have it both ways. I will make it if I never see a royalty check. On the other hand people do not need higher utility bills at this point in time. We need to use more of our own energy to heat homes, industry and transportation. Based on what you said : Bonus money is nothing compare to royalties. So I can assume people even at this price are making more than they expected in the first place. And  your not involved either way.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 03, 2012, 12:12:17 PM

NG = $3.388 as of 3:10pm on 10/3... :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 03, 2012, 01:08:02 PM

NG = $3.388 as of 3:10pm on 10/3... :)

Seems as if it bounced off the $3.50 price region . . and headed in the wrong direction.   :(

Prayer vigil tonight starting at 9:00 pm ET.

If price goes back to a buck ninety we're all toast.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 04, 2012, 01:30:09 AM
In order to solve any problem one must first identify the cause.

Well, I have found the cause:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-02/u-dot-s-dot-natural-gas-slips-after-gaining-on-cold-weather-forecasts (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-02/u-dot-s-dot-natural-gas-slips-after-gaining-on-cold-weather-forecasts)

Don't know how to fix this, though. :(

ETA

And then there is this additional little nugget of unhappiness from our WSJ friends:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443493304578034791541186814.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443493304578034791541186814.html)

 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 04, 2012, 09:51:50 AM

NG = $3.388 as of 3:10pm on 10/3... :)

Seems as if it bounced off the $3.50 price region . . and headed in the wrong direction.   :(

Prayer vigil tonight starting at 9:00 pm ET.

If price goes back to a buck ninety we're all toast.

somewhere in the $3.50 region is where coal becomes cheaper.

just as the glut of n.g. materialized due to hvhf, so too did one come about in coal when it fell out of favor for a while.

these 2 commodities are gonna slug it out probably over the next couple of years until one succumbs under the weight of its own success.

best hope for gas prices near term will be the weather since no one heats with coal anymore.

best hope long term will be the approval of exportability. thats gonna be a political football, and if fumbled by obama2, will set us up for long low pricing.

time will tell.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 04, 2012, 02:28:14 PM
"Northeast cash prices could gain support from a cold front that is moving into the market over the weekend. Starting Oct. 7, regional average temperatures are forecast to drop 8 degrees below normal, setting the stage for the first sustained bout of heating degree days this month. Currently, temperatures are averaging 8 degrees above normal, near 70 degrees."

http://www.bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Berkeley on October 04, 2012, 02:37:48 PM
The long term price history of ng is not encouraging even though it has been a heating fuel for more than a century. Ironically, what will get fracking popular acceptance is very low heating costs. I am hoping for adoption  as a transportation and electric generation fuel to bolster the price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 10, 2012, 05:44:39 AM
Wednesday   October 10, 2012


Price this morning is back up to $3.48!   :)

This is going quite well.  The cold weather appears to be working.  ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 10, 2012, 03:24:12 PM

Turn up those thermostats...it`s getting cold outside  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 10, 2012, 03:25:49 PM
ok...but i burn wood. will that help?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 10, 2012, 03:57:11 PM
ok...but i burn wood. will that help?

wj

Always the rebel!   :)

Regardless, it's now evening and price remains at $3.48 despite the wood burners out there. :)

I can live with $3.48.  Hope price holds for a while and does not falter.  I'm willing to sell a little of my natural gas at $3.48.

This is way better than selling at $1.92!!  :o
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: donegal on October 10, 2012, 03:57:24 PM
ok...but i burn wood. will that help?

wj
Depends on your goals.  Mine?  I'd be just tryin' to keep warm, like at the Tioga Chateau when I wanted to burn the couch to take the chill off.  You said, "No, we can't yet. Not until NG price crosses $3.50!"  Yeah,.......went to bed cold THAT night.


Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 10, 2012, 05:05:42 PM
"Dry production is down 0.4 Bcf/d due to a 125 MMcf drop in Haynesville output, a 92 MMcf decline in PA-Northeast Dry output, and a 147 MMcf drop in the Anadarko.  Smaller declines were spread across the Fayetteville and Louisiana Offshore.  Up to 50 MMcf of the Haynesville drop is likely to be revised upward based on recent activity.  At least a portion of the PA-Northeast Dry decline is also likely to return in the I2 cycle nominations.  Weather continues to chop around near the most moderate parts of the power demand curve, keeping total U.S. demand flat at 61.4 Bcf/d.  The November NYMEX contract does not reflect this moderation, however, and continues to rally, hitting $3.52 this morning and putting the spread versus the spot market wider than $0.25."

http://www.bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 11, 2012, 06:13:15 AM
Luvin' it.  Price has crossed $3.50 once again.  Don't even have to change title!   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Al_Kwki_7 on October 11, 2012, 08:39:39 AM
I hope everyone sold there gas at this price (someone on CNN Money got the decimal in the wrong place on the electronic side):

Natural Gas
Nov. 2012 contract
$ / million BTUs    Floor   3.50       +0.028   +0.81%   2.12                                       TODAY|||
                                                                                                                     3.91                    10:21am ET
    Electronic     3,605.00       +3601.525   +103641.01%   1.90                       TODAY||
                                                                                                                                      3.98    10:57am ET

By 10:59 it had returned to normal, but one can hope that we got paid that amount!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 11, 2012, 12:17:59 PM
Anyone notice NG is $3.60 as of 3:15pm today?  :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 11, 2012, 12:36:56 PM
Anyone notice NG is $3.60 as of 3:15pm today?  :D

SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  ;D


($3.62 now!)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: BartMan on October 11, 2012, 03:20:00 PM
They're over half way there...$7.00 before the years out!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: joe p on October 11, 2012, 05:42:09 PM
how long til the improvement shows up in our royalty checks??
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 11, 2012, 05:48:03 PM
2-3 months.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 12, 2012, 06:27:52 AM
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2012/10/11/natural-gas-hits-2012-high-could-it-reach-5/?mod=BOLBlog
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 12, 2012, 02:13:33 PM

Soo many variables to influence NG prices...this is really encouraging news?  If prices climb, will the rigs return or do the gas companies need a sustained price level for some period of time?  Or will it be based upon inventory levels and comsumption this winter?   $3.60 sure looks nice now... ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 12, 2012, 03:28:31 PM
in the marcellus, i think it's gonna be hbp mode for a while to come, not much development drilling.

i think it'd take $5+ and a real good outlook for additional markets to get much excitement going and bring a bunch of rigs here.

and thats a good thing really, this little rally could be squashed pretty easily if chk simply turned all of their already drilled and frac'd wells into line and cranked them all to 30+ per day.

im hoping for a little discipline within the industry.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 12, 2012, 04:44:25 PM
Last I read, CHK still was not hedged in 2013. Would guess that they would not produce too much to kill the rally if they have any leeway. Now, if they report laying on hedges, it might signal something. I expected a test of $3, before any move back past $3.50 when it went down to the $3.30's. Good to be wrong once again. :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: bellbucci on October 12, 2012, 07:42:20 PM
in the marcellus, i think it's gonna be hbp mode for a while to come, not much development drilling...
? As I'm sure you know, it might be more accurate to say "in much of the Marcellus, ..."

Everyone that generalizes a lot is wrong. ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 12, 2012, 07:58:47 PM
duely noted, and i agree.

it's a mistake that i often make, because i am in the dry gas area.

however, is there not also currently a glut in the liquids markets?

i havent been following that closely, but i remember hearing that liquids are now down and if so, development may be affected there too.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: bellbucci on October 13, 2012, 06:11:50 AM
Propane stocks are well above the five year range. It looks like propane storage withdrawals start earlier in the season than ng. http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/

Prices for propane and other liquids are low now, but the rate of return in the wet areas is still good. Range has a line of five pads with four wells each about to come online in the next few weeks. Full speed ahead, as long as the gathering and processing is available.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 13, 2012, 10:04:00 AM
Saturday morning - October 13, 2012


$3.61


Not half bad   :).
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 13, 2012, 10:46:41 AM
Propane stocks are well above the five year range. It looks like propane storage withdrawals start earlier in the season than ng. http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/

Prices for propane and other liquids are low now, but the rate of return in the wet areas is still good. Range has a line of five pads with four wells each about to come online in the next few weeks. Full speed ahead, as long as the gathering and processing is available.

sounds alot like cabots development plan up here in nepa.

they're still drilling 'em and putting them into line as fast as williams can keep up with piipeline capacity.

the reason they can do that is that they produce at the maximum takeaway capacity. only limiting factor on an individual well seems to be line pressure and avoiding freeze ups. since they're blowing them out, they need new wells more quickly to replace them as they decline in 4-8 months.

still, they havent drilled many development wells, theyre just trying to hold their acreage.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 14, 2012, 06:37:17 PM

Sunday evening - October 14, 2012

Price has moved down to $3.58.
Title: Re: NG price goes back under $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 15, 2012, 02:29:31 PM
10/15/2012, 5:30 p.m.

3.49

still, not bad.

wj
Title: Re: NG price goes back under $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 15, 2012, 03:59:32 PM
10/15/2012, 5:30 p.m.

3.49

still, not bad.

wj

Agreed.  Not now, anyway.  Let's just hope Phil Flynn is wrong:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-energy-natgas-marcellus-idUSBRE89E12B20121015 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-energy-natgas-marcellus-idUSBRE89E12B20121015)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 15, 2012, 07:17:20 PM
just noticed also, that the spot price is only a penny behind at $3.48.

that bodes well. not as much of a glut, and average prices (for royalty purposes) should be very close to the nymex now. they've been lagging for months.

well...in a couple of months anyway.  ;)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 16, 2012, 04:23:08 AM
just noticed also, that the spot price is only a penny behind at $3.48.

that bodes well. not as much of a glut, and average prices (for royalty purposes) should be very close to the nymex now. they've been lagging for months.

well...in a couple of months anyway.  ;)

wj

I agree it's great spot is up.  Boy, that's really good news.   :)

NYMEX NG is at $3.49 this morning, BTW.

Gosh I hope it doesn't go back to $1.8_whatever. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 16, 2012, 11:19:35 AM
Uh-oh!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-16/natural-gas-drops-as-mild-u-s-weather-to-crimp-heating-demand.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-16/natural-gas-drops-as-mild-u-s-weather-to-crimp-heating-demand.html)

 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 16, 2012, 03:10:49 PM
Tuesday early evening, October 16, 2012


We are at $3.44.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 17, 2012, 06:03:51 AM
Now $3.40.

Hope we're not in free fall here.  :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 17, 2012, 06:10:58 AM
spot price is still higher than contracts.

somebody needs gas quick.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Rockdale on October 17, 2012, 02:02:10 PM
Given current conditions I think it is just as important to track the output of electricity and what percentage is being generated by natural gas as to keep track of the demand for gas needed for heating in the short run.  As to long term and sustainable increases in the price of natural gas, I think they are largely dependent upon the building of export facilities for surplus gas in the form of LNG, and the meaningful adaptation of natural gas as a transportation fuel.  Burning an ever increasing amount of natural gas to generate electricity keeps a floor under natural gas prices, but I don't think it allows for much in the way of a sizable rise in prices.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Chicken Farmer on October 17, 2012, 06:53:57 PM
Foreign oil and gas interests will mobilize our environmentalists to block any export of LNG.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 17, 2012, 07:19:37 PM
No. They will invest in selling our cheap gas.

"Qatar Petroleum-Exxon Venture Requests Permit to Export U.S. Natural Gas"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577595760678718068.html

I never posted the story, because it is further fuel for those wanting to limit our exports. Oh well. Hornets nest.

Foreign oil and gas interests will mobilize our environmentalists to block any export of LNG.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 18, 2012, 05:48:47 AM
October 18, 2012    8:48am:


We are at $3.46.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 18, 2012, 10:49:39 AM

A surge is taking place....$3.56 as of 1:50pm today  :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 18, 2012, 02:39:17 PM

A surge is taking place....$3.56 as of 1:50pm today  :D

Flyfisher thanks so much for posting!!  Boy that's great news and I never saw it coming!

Just checked (5:38pm) and price is now up to $3.58!   Suuuuuu--eet!

Looks like steak for dinner!   ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 18, 2012, 04:40:08 PM

Let`s keep this positive mojo going.....this is all about growth and prosperity for all of us as landowners and as a nation.  Imagine what our state and country will be like next year at this time!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: duffy on October 18, 2012, 05:28:50 PM
Is that 3.58 Canadian?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 19, 2012, 07:21:56 AM
OMG . . . . . . . . . .  $3.62!!

 ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: vicnaylor on October 19, 2012, 07:29:11 AM
I can't help but note that the price has now doubled from its spring lows.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 19, 2012, 02:13:25 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-19/natural-gas-rises-to-2012-high-as-power-plants-buoy-demand (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-19/natural-gas-rises-to-2012-high-as-power-plants-buoy-demand)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 19, 2012, 03:54:25 PM

Suuuuuu---eet!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: SOI on October 19, 2012, 04:09:52 PM
Funny how things go.  I remember the panic that set in when natty gas DROPPED to $3.50.  Now we're just happy it's back up to that!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 19, 2012, 08:04:32 PM
Funny how things go.  I remeber the panic when natty gas DROPPED to $3.50.  Now we're just happy it's back up to that!

Agreed.  All things are relative, it would seem.

Anyway, for Friday, October 19, 2012 . . . LATE:

$3.62

As you correctly point out:  It could be worse!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 21, 2012, 04:47:02 PM

Looks like we will start the new week with the NG price at $3.619.    Here`s hoping for a Steelers victory tonight and a continued rise in NG prices this week.   :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 22, 2012, 05:21:48 AM
gas dropped at the open today, im assuming some opportunity buying, but check the futures.

Nov 12  3.5790  -0.0080  3.5590  3.6470 
Dec 12  3.9110  0.0070  3.8710  3.9700 
Jan 13  4.0330  0.0050  3.9940  4.0870 
Feb 13  4.0470  0.0110  4.0000  4.0900 
Mar 13  4.0030  0.0100  3.9750  4.0440 
Apr 13  3.9330  -0.0080  3.9300  3.9840 
May 13  3.9600  0.0000  3.9590  4.0000 
Jun 13  4.0000  0.0070  3.9900  4.0310 
Jul 13  4.0250  -0.0060  4.0250  4.0710 
Aug 13  4.0600  0.0120  4.0460  4.0860 
Sep 13  4.0710  0.0210  4.0510  4.0860 
Oct 13  4.0870  0.0020  4.0810  4.1230 

seems that buyers are catching on to the impending shortage.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 23, 2012, 05:37:04 AM
Price has crossed $3.50 once again.  It is crisscrossing $3.50!!

Price this (Tuesday) morning is at:

$3.45
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 23, 2012, 11:18:50 AM

Local weather forecasting for upcoming winter in western Pa is for more snow and colder temperatures  :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 23, 2012, 05:21:49 PM

So, what needs to happen to get us beyond the $3.50 threshold consistently?  Is there something occurring in the market that won`t let it move beyond this point?  Weather, transportation, electric power generation....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 23, 2012, 05:23:01 PM
Tuesday, October 23, 2012  8:21pm ET


$3.53
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 24, 2012, 03:01:18 PM
Wednesday, October 24, 2012  6:00pm ET

(later than it's ever been)


$3.45
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 24, 2012, 07:10:12 PM
i got an idea.

why dont we just call it $3.50 and relax 'til the cold weather gets here and then watch it go to $4?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: macal on October 24, 2012, 07:14:18 PM

    Blue Laugh Blue Laugh
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 24, 2012, 08:40:38 PM
i got an idea.

why dont we just call it $3.50 and relax 'til the cold weather gets here and then watch it go to $4?

wj
Your are a greedy landowner who wants to get more money out of the poor, elderly, and middle class just to make you richer. How many people do not have to freeze to death so you could line your pockets? Some of you even formed groups to take 20% or more of the profits.  That should be against the law. You know how many things NG are used in. It will drive the price up on many,many things. All this stuff is the beginning of land owner unions. Why even have a contract with a gas company at all. They can be trusted to give you what you deserve on a handshake.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: macal on October 24, 2012, 08:44:05 PM

   Wax, im impressed.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Chicken Farmer on October 25, 2012, 07:01:52 AM
I have an idea.  Pricing should be based on the net worth of the landowner.

The poorest landowners should be paid double the Henry hub price.  The richest ones should get paid nothing.

Come to think of it, may be all royalties should be put into a common pool, and a committee can then decide how much each person's share should be.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: macal on October 25, 2012, 07:11:08 AM

  I think Wax was making a point about unions and coalitions.

  Organize. Strength in numbers.
.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 25, 2012, 07:19:05 AM

  I think Wax was making a point about unions and coalitions.

  Organize. Strength in numbers.
.

not the purpose of this thread.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 25, 2012, 07:20:38 AM

  I think Wax was making a point about unions and coalitions.

  Organize. Strength in numbers.
.

not the purpose of this thread.

wj
Now your a thread cop ? Blue Laugh
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Berkeley on October 25, 2012, 07:32:12 AM
I have an idea.  Pricing should be based on the net worth of the landowner.

The poorest landowners should be paid double the Henry hub price.  The richest ones should get paid nothing.

Come to think of it, may be all royalties should be put into a common pool, and a committee can then decide how much each person's share should be.

Pricing will be based on supply which will be determined by a committe of multinational energy companies.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: macal on October 25, 2012, 07:35:53 AM

  There is a glut. Everyone knows it. Lets just hope

   that the price can hold above $ 3.

   We need to get nat gas fueling transportation.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Chicken Farmer on October 25, 2012, 07:55:59 AM
The existing nat gas market has not yet adjusted to accommodate shale production.

As the market becomes more stable, we should expect a few things:

Abundant energy supply at reasonable price.

Jobs with competitive pay.

Decent return for landowners.

Decent return for associated industries and businesses.

More taxes.

Less acid rain.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Dogbone on October 25, 2012, 08:15:01 AM
Your expectations are way too high.  I doubt it will ever happen in the real world today where greed and corruption rules.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Wax on October 25, 2012, 08:20:22 AM
Your expectations are way too high.  I doubt it will ever happen in the real world today where greed and corruption rules.
I agree, especially with regard too:

Decent return for landowners. Its all about what you signed. Good folks fall to bad terms in so may cases. They trust people.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Chicken Farmer on October 25, 2012, 08:33:46 AM
You both got it pinned on that point.

Speaking for New York, the landowners there are not getting a return at all.  Zilch.  Nada.

This is because antis cannot bear to see any money going to landowners or corporations.  They want to use the land the way they want it, as if they own it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 25, 2012, 09:25:24 AM

  I think Wax was making a point about unions and coalitions.

  Organize. Strength in numbers.
.

not the purpose of this thread.

wj
Now your a thread cop ? Blue Laugh

nope, not at all. you can go as far off topic as you like, thats your business, not mine.

i however will not participate in more than a couple of posts dealing with your petty jealousies other than in open debate.

start a thread there, i'll meet you and point out where you are wrong.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 25, 2012, 09:37:34 AM
Regret to report:

Thursday, October 25, 2012  12.36pm  ET


$3.41

 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 25, 2012, 11:37:30 AM
it's gonna be ok obi wan.

im still calling it $3.50.

look out the window today. ya think anyone has the heat on?

we're in the shoulder season, you have to expect these swings. the true test of pricing potential is still a couple of weeks down the road.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: aubrey on October 25, 2012, 11:42:41 AM
i think this is the real telling feature in todays prices.


Nymex Henry Hub Future 3.43 -0.02 -0.70% 14:14

Henry Hub Spot 3.44 +0.10 2.99% 10/24

New York City Gate Spot 3.63 +0.11 3.12% 10/24


wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Berkeley on October 25, 2012, 12:36:03 PM
You both got it pinned on that point.

Speaking for New York, the landowners there are not getting a return at all.  Zilch.  Nada.

This is because antis cannot bear to see any money going to landowners or corporations.  They want to use the land the way they want it, as if they own it.

When NY comes online, there will be even more supply.....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 25, 2012, 01:16:01 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-25/natural-gas-drops-on-outlook-for-above-normal-storage-increase (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-25/natural-gas-drops-on-outlook-for-above-normal-storage-increase)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: realman on October 26, 2012, 06:09:12 AM
AP. wire has a article saying the inactivity with merger's is from low NG. prices,I think the low price of NG is because of the world economy.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 26, 2012, 02:56:01 PM
Friday, 26 October 2012   5:55pm  ET

$3.40
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 26, 2012, 03:37:14 PM

How will Huricane Sandy affect NG price or demand?   Sounds like cold weather is approaching from the west...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 26, 2012, 04:32:18 PM
I hope it does not hit hard. Having said that, I heard a report that the closer it hits to Delaware, that the more the likelihood of the cold air going deeper. More snow.


How will Huricane Sandy affect NG price or demand?   Sounds like cold weather is approaching from the west...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: donegal on October 27, 2012, 07:27:11 AM
Havin' a hard time predictin' the weather....natural gas  prices next year?  Don't know whether it's gonna' rain...go up or down?  Don't kow whether to buy an umbrella or sunscreen plan on higher prices?   Well join the crowd...err...look at what Range Resources has done about it. (From Range's Q3 2012 Earnings Transcript--color, bold mine) http://seekingalpha.com/article/951941-range-resources-management-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2

"...We're pleased to have increased our hedge position during the third quarter. We added new hedges in 2012, 2013 and 2014. For the fourth quarter this year, we've got approximately 85% of our projected gas production hedged at a floor price of $4.17 MMBtu. We've got approximately 60% of our NGLs hedged at above market prices and approximately 80% of our projected oil production hedged at $90.82 a barrel.

Our 2013 and 2014 natural gas and liquids hedge positions were increased during the third quarter such that we will again be entering the new year with approximately 3/4 of our 2013 production hedged and over half of our 2014 production hedged. Please reference the updated hedging schedules on the Range website for these new and existing hedge volumes and prices


Umbrella??  Looks more like they put a ROOF over most of their place!  Maybe they got the idea from readin' about  wj's "Tarp & Block" Strategy. ;D
Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: donegal on October 27, 2012, 07:52:54 AM
Is Natural Gas sometimes just comin' along for the ride?  Again from Range Resources Q3 2012 Earnings Transcript, CEO Jeff Ventura's answer during Q&A: (color, bold mine)

"...In the wet Marcellus, you can look at those ethane agreements as a proxy for what our gas rate's going to be in the wet areas. When you add the 3 together, we have committed a 55,000 barrels of ethane per day. So currently we're 0 selling ethane. So by mid-to-late 2016, we need to be at 55,000 barrels of ethane per day to fulfill those agreements. Under minimum extraction, that's 1.8 Bcf per day. Under most likely extraction that's 800 million. To put that in context, currently in the wet area, we're about 370 million per day. So on the minimum, on the low end, we're going to more than double production in the wet Marcellus to fill those agreements by mid-to-late 2016. So when I sort of put it all in context and I think probably the most important thing to do that is what our portfolio and we talk about 44 to 60 Tcf. But I want to stress a lot of that's in the Marcellus and down in the Southwest. Highly derisked because there's 1,500 wells and it's not just 1,500 wells, but when you go on our IR presentation, you can look at the quality of the wells in the wet, the super-rich and in the dry. There's a big data set with up to 7 years worth of history, and that's where our acreage is. So not only can we grow at 20% to 25% and then ramp up in subsequent years to potentially something higher, we can do that for many years to come, for probably a decade or more to come. So I think that -- I'm not saying we're unique, but because we discovered and have a big position and what we think it's one of the best, the largest gas field now in the U.S. and particularly in the wet area where the best economics are, we're very well-positioned to do that for a long time to come. 

Doesn't look like SWPA is gonna' be keepin' their foot off the gas pedal, cause Range evidently has made commitments that will force Ethane production......bringin' plenty of natural gas out of the hole along with it.

Looks like lids ain't just for jars,
Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: donegal on October 27, 2012, 11:25:36 AM
o.k., o.k.,.....O.K.! I KNOW it's rainin' out and some of you been lookin' for a new Comic Book to tell ya' more about this Range pricin' stuff.  Well, here ya' are. 80 pages of full-color thingees from Range Resource Q3 2012 Company Presentation:

http://www.rangeresources.com/rangeresources/files/0b/0b6f91a8-4d6d-4703-a1e7-c376c0d3b75c.pdf


Enjoy.  Now remember-- keep yer feet off the coffee table and NO eatin' in the livin' room.

Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: flyfisher on October 28, 2012, 01:23:25 PM

Look out for Hurricane Sandy ...everyone be safe!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 29, 2012, 11:05:46 AM
Monday, 29 October 2012  2:03pm ET

$3.47


Storm article pull quote:

"This Hurricane could have short-term and mid-term effects on the natural gas markets."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/959431-will-hurricane-sandy-affect-the-price-of-natural-gas (http://seekingalpha.com/article/959431-will-hurricane-sandy-affect-the-price-of-natural-gas)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on October 29, 2012, 08:44:15 PM
According to Bentek dry gas production hit a new record high of 64.5 Bcf both Saturday and Sunday. Hope all of you are safe from the storms.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50!!
Post by: shinobi on October 30, 2012, 06:37:03 AM
Storm-related price impact:

http://topnews.net.nz/content/224884-hurricane-sandy-brings-about-rise-prices-natural-gas-futures (http://topnews.net.nz/content/224884-hurricane-sandy-brings-about-rise-prices-natural-gas-futures)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 31, 2012, 07:29:14 AM
Wednesday, October 31, 2012   10:28am  ET


$3.76


 ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on November 01, 2012, 08:14:19 AM
Wednesday, October 31, 2012   10:28am  ET


$3.76


 ;D

front month change again.

will it hold or slip back before the cold sets in?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 01, 2012, 09:32:07 AM
It's rounding the bend, driving for the home stretch, whip that horse you SOB, we need "$10. Gas Prices"
Dreaming or Wishing _ I just like betting Long Shots !!!!! ;D ;D ;D

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: donegal on November 01, 2012, 10:01:46 AM
It's rounding the bend, driving for the home stretch, whip that horse you SOB, we need "$10. Gas Prices"
Dreaming or Wishing _ I just like betting Long Shots !!!!! ;D ;D ;D

firecutter

Firecutter, hate to throw cold water on your burnin' desires, but i think there's too many folks with a horse in the stable  just itchin' to git in the race loooong before the purse hits $10.  When them gasco's turn 'em out on the track, & quit holdin' back their mounts, maybe even spur 'em a bit,  it'll be a horse race to see who gets anythin' over $5.   ;)
 
Now don't get me wrong. I like Long Shots too.  Why I still got a bet ridin' on whether wj EVER gets a job.  Huh?  Yeah, I know....  THAT'S more like a donation than a bet. ;D


Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 01, 2012, 10:07:01 AM
Thursday, 1 November 2012, 1:06pm ET


$3.70
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 01, 2012, 06:35:11 PM
Yep donegal, I agree, but on long shots I aim High.
Now on the other long shot Jimbo (wj) is doing just fine without causing the unemployed numbers to tumble, when he makes the move to get into the work force, for sure as God made little apples we are all in trouble. Giving it some further thought, he has a full time job just setting back there with his hand wrapped around a cold one, ready to pounce on us when we tend to get out of line.
 Blue Laugh Blue Laugh Blue Laugh Blue Laugh
firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 02, 2012, 07:30:18 AM
Friday, 2 November 2012  10:30am  ET


$3.63
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 02, 2012, 02:56:16 PM
Friday, 2 November 2012 5:55pm  ET


$3.55


 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 02, 2012, 03:55:12 PM

What`s driving down the NG price?  It`s cold here in Western Pa...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on November 02, 2012, 07:40:39 PM
"BENTEK's estimate of dry gas production reached a new high this week at 64.8 Bcf/d, helped by daily levels twice topping 65 Bcf. Production on Oct. 29 was estimated at 65,180 MMcf, just above the 65,164 MMcf estimate for Oct. 27. Until this week, the previous daily high had been 64,687 MMcf on Nov. 30, 2011, with a previous weekly high of 64.4 Bcf/d for the week of Nov. 24-30, 2011. October's monthly production reached a new high of 64,152 MMcf/d, eclipsing the previous high of 63,762 MMcf/d from January 2012."

http://www.bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 02, 2012, 07:56:51 PM

  We got a lot of gas.  Build the power plants and the fuel pumps now.

  A lot less carbon dioxide. Everybodys happy.

  Oh except Big Oil and Coal. They dont like it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Chicken Farmer on November 03, 2012, 04:56:00 AM
Foreign oil interests in particular.

Parks Foundation does not like nat gas either.  I do not know if it's influenced by foreign oil interests, or just plain extreme climatologist ideology.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on November 03, 2012, 06:10:30 AM
Foreign oil interests in particular.

Parks Foundation does not like nat gas either.  I do not know if it's influenced by foreign oil interests, or just plain extreme climatologist ideology.



There is military warfare, economic warfare, and political warfare.

Reagan used economic warfare to bring down the Soviet Union.

Consider:  OPEC does NOT want the U.S. to pursue seriously energy independence.

Consider:   green = red

Suggestion: do some Google or Google Scholar or Dogpile research on these topics.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 03, 2012, 06:40:04 AM

  They can sell their oil anywhere. Its Big Oil that wants

   a piece of that action. Thats mainly why we are there.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Berkeley on November 03, 2012, 06:46:45 AM
^^ clearly.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 05, 2012, 02:20:18 PM
Monday, 5 November 2012  5:18pm ET


$3.56

Price movement is very subdued here, just prior to the election.  It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, the outcome of the election has on the NG price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 06, 2012, 01:14:16 PM

Looks like the wall street is showing signs of enthusiasm for NG.   It`s on the rise...  :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 06, 2012, 02:03:49 PM

Looks like the wall street is showing signs of enthusiasm for NG.   It`s on the rise...  :D

Agreed!

Tuesday, 6 November 2012, Election Day, 5:03pm ET


$3.61
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 06, 2012, 03:39:31 PM
Come on Wip That Horse, only $6.39 to get where we want to go. ($10. NG)

Aim for the Moon, you might hit a Star.

Dreaming you bet.   ;D ;D ;D ;D

firecutter
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on November 10, 2012, 03:49:00 PM
November has seen 7 % higher demand over last year. :)

"Dry gas production continues near record levels, with BENTEK's estimate for the past week at 64,785 MMcf/d, just below the record 64,889 MMcf/d for the week of Oct. 27-Nov. 2. Early November production is 0.6 Bcf/d ahead of the  Market Call  forecast. While supply remained steady this week, demand jumped thanks mostly to a 4.7 Bcf/d rise in res/comm, which hit 30.3 Bcf/d on Wednesday and has begun the month more than 7% higher than a year ago."

Bentekenergy.com News Feed
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 10, 2012, 07:27:37 PM

  I feel it slipping back towards $ 3.  I prefer $ 4.  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 12, 2012, 01:00:20 PM

NG price is creeping upwards again.... :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: joe p on November 12, 2012, 01:57:45 PM
what was the closing price today?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 12, 2012, 02:04:51 PM
what was the closing price today?


Monday, 12 November 2012  5:05pm ET


$3.57


ETA

Note:

If the price falls below $3.50, i.e. if it crosses $3.50, and if I see it, I will change the title.  I did not see this happen in the last several days.  Lowest price I saw was $3.50 even.  Then price headed back up.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 13, 2012, 01:17:20 PM
Tuesday 13 November 2012  4:17pm ET


$3.74
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 13, 2012, 03:01:13 PM

Oh boy...keep those furnaces heating up our homes!   What will be the next NG price milestone, Shinobi?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 13, 2012, 03:35:25 PM

Oh boy...keep those furnaces heating up our homes!   What will be the next NG price milestone, Shinobi?

The title will not change unless the price falls below $3.50 (i.e., it crosses $3.50) or rises to $4.01 or higher (i.e., it crosses $4.00).
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 14, 2012, 04:46:22 AM
shinobi, keep on changing that PRICE,
UP UP & AWAY !!!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 14, 2012, 06:20:14 AM
shinobi, keep on changing that PRICE,
UP UP & AWAY !!!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

I'm doing my best.  I, too, hope the next change is when the price crosses $4.00   ;D

 . . . . and not when it crosses $3.50.   :(

All will be revealed in the fullness of time.  ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 16, 2012, 01:31:33 PM
Things have been a bit quiet the last couple of days.  However:

Friday  16 November 2012  4:31pm  ET


$3.80

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 16, 2012, 02:30:01 PM

Fingers crossed for $3.90 by next Friday  ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 18, 2012, 01:42:23 PM
Wip That Horse, Wip That Horse, Up, Up, and Away  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 19, 2012, 05:40:43 AM
Whipping horse as directed:

Monday 19 November  8:40am  ET


$3.81
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 20, 2012, 03:48:50 AM
Thanks for the update Shino, keep it moving up  !!  ;D ;D ;D

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 20, 2012, 02:59:28 PM
Thanks for the update Shino, keep it moving up  !!  ;D ;D ;D

firecutter

Your wish = my command:

Tuesday  20 November 2012  5:59pm  ET


$3.83
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 21, 2012, 02:47:50 PM

Happy Thanksgiving to all....$3.91 yummy!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 22, 2012, 06:51:09 AM
Great Flyfisher, we are in two units, not moving gas as yet, hopefully next year this time, they are fracking now, $4. or higher gas would be good also, need a truck, and my wife's car is $$$$$ us to death, need some "Mail Box Money"
A Happy & Healthy Thanksgiving to all.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on November 24, 2012, 05:10:28 AM

$3.90 as wished for by Friday, November 23...now hopefully we`ll see $4.00 by next Friday  :)

To all Pennsylvania deer hunters next week...be safe and shoot straight!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: GONRA on November 24, 2012, 02:44:32 PM
flyfisher sez:  To all Pennsylvania deer hunters next week...be safe and shoot straight!

GONRA sez:  Keep yer !@#$%^& deer stands,  ATV's
and large scale "deer drives" off my property.
My liability insurance does NOT cover structures like "deer stands".
Individual neighboring property hunters are ALWAYS welcome.
Except when GONRA is up there blasting away.
See my Jeep?  Stay Away!!! 

GONRA stays at least 100 miles away on "opening day"....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 26, 2012, 04:51:34 AM
Monday 26 November 2012  7:51am  ET


$3.76


 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 29, 2012, 01:25:09 PM
Thursday  November 29, 2012   4:25pm  ET


$3.65

 :( :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 30, 2012, 03:00:47 PM
Friends, this isn't going well:

Friday 30 November 2012   6:00pm   ET


$3.56
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Steve-O on November 30, 2012, 03:53:29 PM
No worries.  It's just a holiday shoppers' special!   ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: farmhouse on December 02, 2012, 05:05:14 AM
Was out in a T-shirt Saturday Dec. 1. Should be in full winter gear. I think I saw this movie last winter... And it has a bad ending.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on December 04, 2012, 02:28:44 PM
Tuesday  4 December 2012  5:28pm  ET


$3.54
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on December 07, 2012, 03:43:50 AM
Friday  7 December 2012  6:43am  ET



$3.64


ETA

Looking back within this thread, the price has held in the range of $3.75, plus or minus twenty-five cents, ever since the last day of October.  That's a pretty stable price IMO.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on December 08, 2012, 06:42:19 AM
Saturday  8 December 2012  9:42am  ET


$3.55
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on December 08, 2012, 12:44:32 PM

Is it a positive that the NG price seems to be stabilized now and not having excessive highs and lows?   When will we see an increase in pricing?   I`m convinced now that it won`t be because of just the weather.  We need significant industrial and/or commercial demand to spike the price upward.   Any thoughts?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 09, 2012, 04:23:30 PM
Sunday  9 December 2012  7:23pm  ET


$3.49


sorry


ETA

Explanatory note for newcomers to this thread:

This thread reports the price of NG from time to time.  However, the title of the thread does not change every time the price changes.

The title of this thread only changes when the NG price has crossed a twenty-five cent interval.  This just happened.  After remaining within twenty-five cents of $3.75 for over a month, the price of natural gas today went below $3.50 . . it crossed $3.50.

The title of this thread will not change again until the price of NG reaches $3.76, or more, thereby crossing $3.75, or until it reaches $3.24, or less, thereby crossing $3.25. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 10, 2012, 06:20:34 AM
Monday  10 December 2012  9:20am  ET


$3.44
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 10, 2012, 09:15:17 AM
Maybe turn back up soon.

"Temperatures in the Southeast are at their highest of the most recent five days, putting power burn in that region 0.5 Bcf/d higher than Friday's level, and keeping total U.S. power burn above 19.0 Bcf/d.  The region is expected to cool back toward its 55-degree mid-December normal throughout the week, keeping a 20 Bcf/d ceiling on gas burn from power generation.  Total U.S. demand is expected to move higher throughout the week, however, as demand from key heating regions such as the Midwest and Northeast grows.  BENTEK's flow sample into the twin cities is up 476 MMcf/d since Friday and is expected to grow through the week, putting total U.S. demand above         80 Bcf/d by week-end.  Though it has not exhibited extreme growth over the past month, domestic production remains flat near the 64.0-Bcf/d level, keeping weekly withdrawal expectations below 100 Bcf/week through the Dec. 20 storage week.  The market is pricing in at least a portion of the looser supply/demand balance as the January contract is trading to a new 20-day low this morning, down $0.08 to $3.47."

From Bentekenergy news feed http://www.bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 12, 2012, 05:41:37 AM
Wednesday  12 December 2012  8:41am  ET


$3.39
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 13, 2012, 02:08:44 AM

Any explanation why the NG price continues to slip away?   Where will it stop?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 13, 2012, 02:36:30 AM

Any explanation why the NG price continues to slip away?   Where will it stop?

Dunno.  Maybe the weather, which is quite warm.

Dunno where it will stop.  Anyway, no love today:

Thursday  13 December 2012  5.36am  ET


$3.37
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: realman on December 13, 2012, 02:53:48 AM
The low price of natural gas should bring manufacturing companys that use natural gas to make there product back to the United States,that could be the up side to low prices.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 14, 2012, 02:23:42 AM
Friday  14 December 2012  5:23am ET


$3.33
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Steve-O on December 14, 2012, 06:27:56 AM
Please refrain from bad news during the last 10 days before Christmas, PLEASE!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 14, 2012, 01:41:59 PM

I`m having difficulty accessing the PaDep wesite for new O&G permit listings.  Anyone having problems, too?  Any suggestions?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on December 14, 2012, 02:31:58 PM

  The price is trying to hang in there.

  Its slipping away. Here we go.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: 77flh on December 17, 2012, 03:28:00 PM
flyfisher, ya, it looks like they worked on the site and it hasn't worked very well since.  I know of permits in my area that have been filed, yet have not shown up on efacts.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Wax on December 17, 2012, 05:12:37 PM
Please refrain from bad news during the last 10 days before Christmas, PLEASE!!
Gee! I thought it was better to give than receive. Be Santa Clause to so many for the Holidays, Ho,Ho,Ho.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 17, 2012, 05:45:50 PM

Are we now seeing the reversal of NG prices upward again?  $3.36....anyone know why?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 18, 2012, 05:58:35 AM
Tuesday  18 December 2012  8:58am  ET


$3.42
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 20, 2012, 01:11:16 PM
Thursday  20 December 2012  4:11pm  ET


$3.46
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 20, 2012, 01:54:33 PM

Thanks for your updates, shinobi...Happy Holidays!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 21, 2012, 05:37:47 AM
Friday  21 December 2012  8:37am  ET


$3.49


Snowstorms and cold weather are good.   :)

Will we cross $3.50 again before Xmas, this time going north?  Dunno.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on December 21, 2012, 11:25:47 AM
Yep COLD IS GOOD!!!!!

 Never thought I would welcome freezing weather, in the teens or lower.  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

firecutter

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 24, 2012, 05:33:44 AM
Christmas eve     8:33am  ET


$3.36

Merry Christmas
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 25, 2012, 04:30:46 PM
Christmas Day 2012   7:30 pm   ET


$3.31
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 26, 2012, 08:25:53 AM

NG price creeping (albeit slowly) back upward...just how much colder does it have to get before.....?  Come'on  Man!!!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 26, 2012, 08:54:26 AM
Average or lower Winter temperatures have not happened. Maybe a weather trend will form now. I wonder what the European weather models are showing for the U.S. right now.

"Total demand is on the rise now that colder weather has moved in across much of the country. Demand is up from 88.3 Bcf Tuesday to 92.4 today. Today?s demand is also a new seasonal high this year and starting to look more like normal December levels. So far total demand this December has averaged 75.0 Bcf/d, compared to 80.9 Bcf/d during the same period last year. Over the past six days, res/comm has averaged 43.2 Bcf/d. However, res/comm demand is up 1.5 Bcf day-over-day, to stand at 49.2 Bcf for today. Month-to-date total res/comm demand has averaged 34.2 Bcf/d, which is down from last year when res/comm demand averaged 39.0 Bcf/d. If the cold weather remains throughout the next two weeks as expected, the increase in res/comm could help support cash basis prices throughout each region."

http://bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: realman on December 26, 2012, 10:31:16 AM
Do you think cold temps. would drive up wet gas prices? Or no effect?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on December 26, 2012, 12:05:20 PM
Cold temps would definitely move propane prices, with heating demand. I sort of remember heating demand being 1/3 of the propane market, but that could be my imagination. Recent propane storage figures are almost as frightening as ng storage was last year.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: realman on December 26, 2012, 12:21:30 PM
Thank You Ruby,thats good news for people in the wet gas production areas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 26, 2012, 04:43:24 PM
NE production has almost hit a record at 10 Bcf/d. The quote at the end of my post  off of Bentek looks like better news about the weather than I thought was known. :)

Ruby_99, since you started reading that RBN Energy blog, and know more about wet gas stuff, do you think that some of the switching between wet gas components based on price for refining and cracking and such apply to SW Penn wet or is it basically not relevant due to pipeline and processing constraints?

They RBN also added in the last couple days an interesting set of charts.

http://www.rbnenergy.com/tracking-the-big-trends-in-hydrocarbon-markets

" Fundamental to our approach to energy markets at RBN is a view that natural gas, crude oil and NGLs have become much more interdependent than in the days before shale.  What happens in gas impacts NGLs, which influences crude oil, which loops back to the natural gas market.  We?ve written about these cross-commodity relationships in a number of RBN blogs during 2012, showing the calculations and walking through several spreadsheet models.  Now we are taking our analysis one step further.  Starting on December 31, 2012, we are launching a new RBN website feature called Spotcheck that displays daily updated graphs of these relationships."

http://bentekenergy.com/

"Northeast demand rose to 21 Bcf/d in the week ended Dec 26., moving the month-to-date average demand to within 5% of 2011 levels.  Almost all Northeast cash basis prices fell as a result of the lower seasonal demand, with the exception of Transco Zn 6.  The 7-day forecast calls for demand increasing to an average of 24 Bcf/d on temperatures 4 degrees below normal.  If the forecast holds, demand would average 19.1 Bcf/d for December 2012, which is the lowest figure in five years and 10% below the 5-year average."
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on December 26, 2012, 06:24:18 PM

   That last paragraph doesnt sound too encouraging

   for demand and price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 26, 2012, 06:51:04 PM
Well, the way I read it is that demand is quickly picking up, and the cooler weather trend should hold for at least the next 2 weeks as per the quote in my previous post. That it can not make up for the rest of December should have nothing to do with the short term prices going forward.



   That last paragraph doesnt sound too encouraging

   for demand and price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on December 26, 2012, 07:24:50 PM
...

Ruby_99, since you started reading that RBN Energy blog, and know more about wet gas stuff, do you think that some of the switching between wet gas components based on price for refining and cracking and such apply to SW Penn wet or is it basically not relevant due to pipeline and processing constraints? ...
I'm guessing that it's still relevant, but the distance to refineries and other users plays a big part. I think Canada uses a lot of the iso-butane for diluent. I don't know where they use it in Canada, but we're probably farther away -- pipeline-wise at least.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 27, 2012, 07:54:43 AM
Thursday  27 December 2012  10:54am  ET


$3.33
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 28, 2012, 06:43:16 AM
Friday  28 December 2012  9:43am  ET


$3.48

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on December 28, 2012, 12:09:06 PM
Shinobi, thanks as always,
To all A Most Happy New Year,

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: realman on December 29, 2012, 05:26:53 PM
I heard South east Asia is really hurting for energy fuel,as these countrys develope they need more energy for industry.They need it and we can't deliver it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on December 31, 2012, 04:26:13 PM
31 December 2012  7:22pm  ET


$3.35


This is my final price report for 2012.  Happy New Year to everyone.

Here's hoping that in 2013 we move above $4.00.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: aktony on December 31, 2012, 04:44:23 PM
Thank you shinobi for keeping us informed. 

Best wishes to you and to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on January 02, 2013, 01:07:30 PM

What`s wrong with this picture?   There is 8-10 inches of snow on the ground here in western Pa, and the night time temp`s are in the low 20`s or high teens,  WHY isn`t the NG price rising??? :-\
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 02, 2013, 02:33:07 PM

What`s wrong with this picture?   There is 8-10 inches of snow on the ground here in western Pa, and the night time temp`s are in the low 20`s or high teens,  WHY isn`t the NG price rising??? :-\

Dunno.  But it is not rising.


Wednesday  2 January  2013  5:32pm ET


$3.24
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Dogbone on January 02, 2013, 02:38:22 PM
With the huge glut of natural gas, it's going to take a LOT MORE than normal Winter temperatures to raise the price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: joe p on January 02, 2013, 02:55:27 PM
agreed dogbone some snow in one part of Pa. is far from an indicator in the price of NG. big business tends to think globally not locally
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on January 02, 2013, 06:23:19 PM

  Agreed that there is a glut of nat gas. Cold weather helps.

   Lets get those power plants built. More nat gas vehicles

   and then maybe export some.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on January 02, 2013, 07:04:31 PM
No worries. The big oil companies did not buy up all those leases because gas is worthless. We just dont know the timing.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on January 03, 2013, 10:07:52 AM
Heavy industry moving to the U.S. from Europe because of our abundant cheap natural gas:

http://www.alfin2300.blogspot.com/

Read the article for today, January 3, 2013.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: eupany on January 03, 2013, 10:54:05 AM
the old saying "the best cure for low prices.. is low prices"  the question is when will they finaly rebound to a "normal" level and what is the "normal price level".  For the short term it appears that around $3.50 is normal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on January 03, 2013, 01:27:52 PM
...and given the current state of the NG market, is it realistic that weather factors along will drive prices beyond $4?  It doesn`t appear so... :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 03, 2013, 02:20:09 PM
Thursday  03 January 2013  5:18pm  ET



$3.19
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on January 03, 2013, 06:04:47 PM

I`m just thinking...to get to $5 NG price, how much of that increrase is needed by heating needs, how much by other needs such as, electric power generation, vehicle fuel, LNG exports,  etc.?  Based upon the current inventory of NG and the current trend for supply, can we reach $5 by weather conditions alone?  What`s a realistic time table to reach the $5 milestone mark?   2013, 2014, 2105 or.....when?   If we don`t reach that $5 milestone soon, then we need to calm down our expectations, and avoid ulcers :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on January 04, 2013, 04:58:52 AM

I`m just thinking...to get to $5 NG price, how much of that increrase is needed by heating needs, how much by other needs such as, electric power generation, vehicle fuel, LNG exports,  etc.?  Based upon the current inventory of NG and the current trend for supply, can we reach $5 by weather conditions alone?  What`s a realistic time table to reach the $5 milestone mark?   2013, 2014, 2105 or.....when?   If we don`t reach that $5 milestone soon, then we need to calm down our expectations, and avoid ulcers :)

The only way to get the price up is to increase demand & usage faster than the increase in supply.

And one way to do that quickly is for the governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio and other natural gas-producing states to sign executive orders allowing use of methanol as a motor fuel. 

Please note: the word is "allowing" ... not mandating ... not requiring.

Allowing.

M100.

Or, to substitute methanol for ethanol.  M10 instead of E10.

The effect would be to increase demand for natural gas almost immediately!

Natural gas is methane.   You can make methanol from methane.

AND, there are plenty of companies that manufacture methanol from methane.   You can buy methanol on the open market.

visit   www.energyvictory.net   for the open standard and text.

Get the book   "Energy Victory"

http://www.amazon.com/Energy-Victory-Winning-Terror-Breaking/dp/1591027071/ref=pd_sim_b_5


Also visit:  http://www.setamericafree.org/

 http://www.setamericafree.org/zubrin.pdf



http://www.amazon.com  /Anne-Korin   "Turning Oil Into Salt" ...

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1439248478/iags-20

... salt used to be a government monopoly ... but, now the free competitive market has turned salt into just another commodity.   We can do the same thing with oil.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on January 04, 2013, 11:35:26 AM
http://counterjihadreport.com/2012/08/20/legalize-methanol-it-would-boost-the-economy-and-our-national-security-too/


... and also sell a lot of natural gas!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on January 04, 2013, 12:28:46 PM
another interesting web site ... related to a previous link:

http://servetolead.org/gal-luft-and-anne-korin-turning-oil-into-salt/

Authors Luft & Korin have done a HUGE amount of writing on energy independence ... check them out ... also on YouTube ...

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 04, 2013, 02:26:08 PM
Friday  04 January 2013  5:29pm ET



$3.29
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 08, 2013, 01:08:47 PM
Tuesday  08 January 2013   4:06pm  ET


$3.23
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: kenneth12 on January 08, 2013, 04:31:17 PM
Shinobi,

Thanks for keeping us up to date - even if the news is a bit depressing...   :(

Ken
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 08, 2013, 07:15:42 PM
Shinobi,

Thanks for keeping us up to date - even if the news is a bit depressing...   :(

Ken

Sure, no problem.  Fact is I think, this upcoming warm weather . . right in the middle of what's supposed to be a cold month . . is not gonna help to float our boat.

BTW

Tuesday  08 January 2013  10:13pm  ET


$3.20


. . . . . so I'm not the only one who knows the weather forecast.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on January 09, 2013, 04:33:46 AM

So maybe we can count on ole' Punxsutawney Phil for some help on February 2th  ;)  Six more weeks of cold weather....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 09, 2013, 01:35:46 PM
Wednesday  09 January 2013  4:34pm ET



$3.13


Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 10, 2013, 08:22:10 AM
Perhaps it will change quickly? From Bentek news feed:

" 01/10/2013 Higher-than-normal temperatures continue to push down demand in the East as res/comm declined 0.3 Bcf/d in the Northeast and Southeast. However, dropping temperatures are already evident as a cold front is blasting across the U.S. from the Northwest, bringing frigid temperatures in its wake. Temperatures in the Rockies and Southwest are forecast to plummet 30 degrees this weekend. Res/comm demand climbed 0.6 Bcf/d in both the Midwest and Northwest and 0.4 Bcf/d in the Southwest, bringing total U.S. demand up 0.2 Bcf/d to 76.9 Bcf/d."

http://www.bentekenergy.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: aktony on January 10, 2013, 08:46:09 AM
Natural Gas Climbs on Biggest Stockpile Drop in Almost Two Years


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/natural-gas-climbs-on-biggest-stockpile-drop-in-almost-two-years.html

By Christine Buurma - Jan 10, 2013
Natural gas futures advanced for the first time in four days after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles declined by the most in almost two years.

Gas gained as much as 2.9 percent after the Energy Department said inventories fell 201 billion cubic feet in the seven days ended Jan. 4 to 3.316 trillion cubic feet, the biggest weekly decline since February 2011. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed an expected drop of 191 billion.

?This was definitely a bullish withdrawal,? said Kent Bayazitoglu, an analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston. ?It was a cold week. People had reduced their expectations because of the New Year?s holiday, but this number would have been bullish even if it hadn?t been a holiday week.?

Natural gas for February delivery rose 6.1 cents, or 2 percent, to $3.174 per million British thermal units at 10:52 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas traded at $3.16 before the storage number was released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. The futures are up 7.9 percent from a year ago. Trading volume was up 17 percent from the 100-day average.

The five-year average decline for the week is 121 billion cubic feet, according to FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. A surplus to the five-year average fell to 10.7 percent from 12.4 percent the previous week. Supplies were 2.6 percent below year- earlier inventories, the widest deficit since September 2011.

The weather may be colder than normal in the Northeast from Jan. 20 through Jan. 24, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.

Colder Weather

The low in New York on Jan. 20 may be 16 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 7 Celsius), 11 lower than usual, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. The low in Boston may be 21 degrees, 1 below average.

About 50 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, Energy Department data show.

The department increased its estimate for 2013 natural gas prices in a Jan. 8 report, citing more normal winter heating demand compared with last year. Gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, will average $3.74 per million Btu, up from the December estimate of $3.68, according to the monthly Short- Term Energy Outlook. Prices averaged $2.75 in 2012.

Natural gas output in the lower-48 states rose to an all- time high in October as more of the fuel was pumped from shale formations in the Northeast and North Dakota, the department said Jan. 7.

Production Gain

Gross gas production increased 0.4 percent to 73.54 billion cubic feet a day from a revised 73.22 billion in September, the department?s Energy Information Administration said in the monthly EIA-914 report.

Supplies from the ?other states? category rose 1.8 percent to 23.94 billion cubic feet a day from a revised 23.51 billion in September. Production in that region advanced ?as operators reported new wells coming online in the Marcellus and Bakken shale plays,? the department said.

The boom in oil and natural gas production helped the U.S. cut its reliance on imported fuel. America met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first nine months of last year, department data show. If the trend goes on through 2012, it will be the highest level of self-sufficiency since 1991.

To contact the reporters on this story: Christine Buurma in New York at cbuurma1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on January 10, 2013, 12:24:22 PM

Just wondering....does a cold winter require more NG for heat or does a hot summer require more NG for electricity?  :-\
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 11, 2013, 06:55:35 AM
Friday  11 January 2013  9:52am  ET


$3.27


Forecast for cold in extremis toward end of next week bodes well.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on January 11, 2013, 07:04:38 AM

   Is the price quoted here roughly what the royalties based on or

   are there big deviations.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 11, 2013, 07:31:36 AM

   Is the price quoted here roughly what the royalties based on or

   are there big deviations.

Dunno for certain.  But I believe the latter.  I post just the Bloomberg "front month" price as it appears at Bloomberg.com.  There are a zillion different NG prices out there.

Since our royalties are based, most often, on actual sales prices, and since those sales prices are very often set in advance by contract, I doubt the price I post bears much day to day relationship to what we can expect to receive.  However, over longer spaces of time there will be a relationship.  For example:

If I were posting prices closer to $6.00 than to $3.00 (I wish), for sure we would see that reflected in our checks sooner or later.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 12, 2013, 10:50:57 AM
Saturday  12 January 2013  1:49pm  ET


$3.33


 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: firecutter874 on January 13, 2013, 08:41:54 AM
Shinobi, this is such an important thread to all that are in this Gas Play, PRICE of our Gas is what greases the wheel that drives the entire issue, ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

THANKS,
firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on January 13, 2013, 08:50:51 AM

   The price of ng and especially the price that is calculated for

   royalty payments is the most important factor for the landowner.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: SOI on January 13, 2013, 01:48:48 PM
There are several factors that influence the price paid to royalty owners compared to prices on the NYMEX, etc.  First is the wording on your royalty clause and how your royalty is calculated.  Another factor would be where your gas is being sold, meaning what pipeline it is being sold into and what price they are paying. 

Each gas company negotiates their own prices with the transportation company so gas being sold into the same pipeline by two different gas companies could be bringing different prices.  I know our royalties have been calculated on a price that is around 25 cents lower than the average prices you'll see on the Henry Hub or NYMEX.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on January 13, 2013, 04:53:19 PM

  I saw where Senaca was getting $4 on their

   hedged price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 14, 2013, 06:30:53 AM
Monday  14 January 2013  9:29am  ET


$3.39
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on January 15, 2013, 01:54:54 PM

Finally, back above $3.40 and heading north again.   More cold weather is forecasted for the next two weeks in western Pa...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 15, 2013, 02:36:04 PM
Tuesday  15 January 2013   5:34pm  ET


$3.44
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: joe p on January 15, 2013, 03:54:54 PM
what are the industry's projections for the price by the end of 2013?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: bellbucci on January 16, 2013, 07:54:11 AM
For projections, consider the futures market. http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/contracts.html?r=NYMEX_NG
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 18, 2013, 06:26:04 AM
 Friday  18 January 2013   9:23am  ET



$3.52


 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 18, 2013, 11:10:09 AM
 Friday  18 January 2013   2:07pm  ET


$3.57


Market is moving
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on January 18, 2013, 12:43:23 PM
They Gotta wip that horse and get it where it needs to be, Up Up and away ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 21, 2013, 06:22:32 AM
Monday  21 January 2013  9:21am ET



$3.62
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: DoeRun on January 21, 2013, 09:00:39 AM
It is amazing what a cold snap in the NE will do!  Welcome old man winter...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on January 23, 2013, 09:46:51 AM

So, with all this frigid weather with cold temperatures and snow, why hasn`t the NG price gone through the roof??   Looks like we need more then weather factors to elevate the NG price!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2013, 06:10:24 PM
Wednesday  23 January 2013  9:07pm ET


$3.57


Price is down a bit.  Weather outlook for next week:  warm weather
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 24, 2013, 11:16:52 AM
Thursday  24 January 2013 2:14pm ET


$3.46


 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 28, 2013, 03:35:03 AM
Monday  28 January 2013  6:34am  ET


$3.37


 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 28, 2013, 06:32:13 PM

Just wondering....does a cold winter require more NG for heat or does a hot summer require more NG for electricity?  :-\
>>>>> According to the Federal government's EIA which keeps the statistics on these matters, the amount of natural gas that is consumed to make electricity started to exceed gas used for cold weather heating as of late 2011.   Since 2011 there has been a steady stream of news about coal burning electrical plants shutting down and new gas burning capacity coming on line, so I would guess that as of now burning gas to make electricity handily exceeds that used for space heating and that gap will grow in the future.  Which would lead one to believe that in the future it will be the hot days of summer when the air conditioners are working hard that will be as important to the natural gas business as the cold snaps of winter.  A nice aspect of that new reality is that it will mean an evening out of the natural gas demand side of the industry in favor of a steadier year round business.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on January 28, 2013, 07:28:53 PM

  Its diving. Hope it levels out. Sub $3 is no good

   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on January 28, 2013, 07:42:22 PM

  Its diving. Hope it levels out. Sub $3 is no good

 

What can I say.  You're right.  It's falling like a stone:


Monday  28 January 2013  10:42pm  ET


$3.26


Two more cents down and I have to change the title again.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on January 29, 2013, 05:10:45 AM
Thanks, Rockdale....now I won`t feel so guilty wishing for warmer winter days!   Keep those lights on....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 29, 2013, 06:22:49 AM
29  January 2013  9:21am  ET


$3.23


 :'(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on January 30, 2013, 03:33:12 PM
Wednesday  30 January 2013  6:30pm  ET



$3.34
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 06, 2013, 07:34:50 AM
Wednesday  06 February 2013  10:32am  ET



$3.43
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on February 07, 2013, 04:06:49 AM

Since NG prices have hovered around the $3.30 range now for quite awhile, can we believe it has stabilized somewhat?  Is this the new normal range reflecting upon the new level of demand or can we see it go back down again?   Will it only go up from here?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Dogbone on February 07, 2013, 05:10:20 AM
"Will it only go up from here?"

I doubt that the price will only go in one direction from where it is now.  I believe the demand has a LONG way to go before it ever catches up with the current supply and untapped resources still waiting to be captured.  Although the major producers could possibly manipulate the price by controlling the supply they allow to reach the market.

The low price for natural gas is not all that bad.  There are certainly more people benefiting from the lower natural gas price than there are landowners who will benefit more from a much higher natural gas price.  Win some, loose some.....we should never be greedy.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Rockdale on February 07, 2013, 06:42:10 AM

Since NG prices have hovered around the $3.30 range now for quite awhile, can we believe it has stabilized somewhat?  Is this the new normal range reflecting upon the new level of demand or can we see it go back down again?   Will it only go up from here?
>>>> A glance at the charts of prices kept by the EIA and other sources shows that natural gas has been stuck in a price range of about 3 to 4 dollars for quite some time, with little indication of any big move above or below those figures. And when you look at charts over long periods of time spanning decades, it becomes apparent that natural gas has often been the bargain basement fuel in terms of money paid per BTU, especially when compared to oil, only breaking to high price ranges for fairly limited periods such as the spike that occurred around 2007-08.  Recently I had read several articles that claimed that the price point of $3.40 was a crucial figure.  When gas goes for above that price of 3.40, it gives the coal industry the opportunity to win back some of the customers they have lost in the electrical power generation industry.  And there is no bigger factor these days in terms of expanding natural gas usage than in the way that natural gas has successfully underbid coal.  Higher prices for coal of course would allow natural gas to go higher, but it will probably take some time for that occur since the cutbacks in coal production have not yet had much effect on that commodity's price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 07, 2013, 07:27:45 AM

Since NG prices have hovered around the $3.30 range now for quite awhile, can we believe it has stabilized somewhat?  Is this the new normal range reflecting upon the new level of demand or can we see it go back down again?   Will it only go up from here?
>>>> A glance at the charts of prices kept by the EIA and other sources shows that natural gas has been stuck in a price range of about 3 to 4 dollars for quite some time, with little indication of any big move above or below those figures. And when you look at charts over long periods of time spanning decades, it becomes apparent that natural gas has often been the bargain basement fuel in terms of money paid per BTU, especially when compared to oil, only breaking to high price ranges for fairly limited periods such as the spike that occurred around 2007-08.  Recently I had read several articles that claimed that the price point of $3.40 was a crucial figure.  When gas goes for above that price of 3.40, it gives the coal industry the opportunity to win back some of the customers they have lost in the electrical power generation industry.  And there is no bigger factor these days in terms of expanding natural gas usage than in the way that natural gas has successfully underbid coal.  Higher prices for coal of course would allow natural gas to go higher, but it will probably take some time for that occur since the cutbacks in coal production have not yet had much effect on that commodity's price.

Good assessment. The only thing i see pushing it up substantially for a long term would be export. If it were easily exported, a worldwide market price would prevail. Assuming shale gas were not discovered and exploited around the world, that would establish a floor for gas prices here. Depending on what that floor was, it might or might not compete favorably with gasoline as a transportation fuel. I have a feeling export will happen, a world market price will be established and lo and behold as a transportation fuel it will level out just a little below gasoline.  I think that is a scenario that would work for the multinational energy companies who are now or soon will be dominating the ng production.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 07, 2013, 08:02:55 AM
What kind of time frame do you see for exports to develop for natural gas?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 07, 2013, 08:04:32 AM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 07, 2013, 11:59:16 AM
There was this comment on natural gas pricing on one of the pro-nuke blog sites:


Duke will soon live to regret that decision as natural gas prices now $3.mcf or 30% the cost of production sustained by Big Oil dumping, rises to its cover its cost. As well, once numerous LNG export plants begin operation prices will rise to international levels of $18/mcf. In the last cold snap NYC prices hit $30/mcf - highest ever.

Then again maybe not as the gas price increases are automatically passed on to ratepayers. Most assurendly if Duke had to agree to cover all future gas price increases as part of its new nuclear to gas strategy there would be no nuclear to gas strategy.




source:   

http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/2013/02/crystal-river-end-days-of-nuclear-energy.html


[me talking:   " I cannot conceive of how they managed to 'delaminate' the reactor building ... duuuuhhh!"  ]

[They tried to save money by a DIY cutting of a hole in the wall of the building ... and it cracked.   (how do you do that????)]


[There was a comic who starred in the TV show: "Home Improvement" ... and he used to make an animal noise ... "uhhhh???"]

http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/close-crystal-river-nuclear-plant-for-good/1273720


[I would love to see a photo of that crack.]

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Rockdale on February 07, 2013, 01:59:37 PM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 07, 2013, 02:04:12 PM
I think we will make a living from our gas not a killing. That's fair, all said and done.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 07, 2013, 02:13:19 PM
Thursday  07 February 2013  5:11pm  ET


$3.29
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: realman on February 07, 2013, 02:37:36 PM
What kind of time frame do you see for exports to develop for natural gas?
Mohawk I think it will happen as fast as the EPA allows the gas companys to do it,this is a big money maker for thr gas companys.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 07, 2013, 02:54:01 PM
What kind of time frame do you see for exports to develop for natural gas?
Mohawk I think it will happen as fast as the EPA allows the gas companys to do it,this is a big money maker for thr gas companys.

But not ncessarily  for the oil companies and the gas companies are the oil companies. They have to get their ducks in line so they dont undercut oil/gasoline prices and end up at a net loss.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: realman on February 07, 2013, 03:41:50 PM
We keep buying gasoline ,oil,diesel and they send the natural gas over sea's to Japan and other country's.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Wax on February 07, 2013, 07:02:15 PM
Whow! if you all got a higher royalties the price would go up. You guys got more control over that happening, than you do over, the commodity market.Get on board and ask your politician to do something good for landowners. I do not even get any royalties, but would enjoy seeing landowners, getting a better deal from the Lawmakers in Pa.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 07, 2013, 07:37:59 PM
We all want higher gas prices if we are mineral owners with gas to sell. Just not at the expense of the family next door(or the taxpayer for some of us, right?) Export is the key. Bring the money into THIS country and royalties will rise as well as our standard of living. One could argue that greedy companies would sell off into exports and short change the country. Why would they do that? Wax would love it! Because it would raise royalties and costs to get gas from angry landowners . Not a good way to do business.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: realman on February 07, 2013, 07:43:33 PM
 There is over 254.4 million registered passenger vehicles in the USA,240. million in China, How could these be converted to natural gas? I think gasoline is here for a long time.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 07, 2013, 07:44:25 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 07, 2013, 07:54:14 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Wax on February 07, 2013, 07:56:22 PM
We all want higher gas prices if we are mineral owners with gas to sell. Just not at the expense of the family next door(or the taxpayer for some of us, right?) Export is the key. Bring the money into THIS country and royalties will rise as well as our standard of living. One could argue that greedy companies would sell off into exports and short change the country. Why would they do that? Wax would love it! Because it would raise royalties. Not a good way to do business.
Not a good way to do business.
Oh! Let"s see. A landowner with 100 acres and 10 acres in a unit, gets a royalty of how much per acre? After deductions, less than 1% a acre. Maybe they will drill another well soon, or not, just saying.
But the politicians are our people, Right. We are family to them, and family comes first where I come from. Before the Kilmer case , everyone who signed a lease thought they would see 12.5 %.  I laugh when I hear the industry wants to partner, with landowners. Recently they are sending letter out, with a one time offer, stating sign it, or do not return it. This is a non-negotiable offer. I get it. Silent partner.
Politicians can and should help landowners get a fair deal.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 07, 2013, 08:01:58 PM
We all want higher gas prices if we are mineral owners with gas to sell. Just not at the expense of the family next door(or the taxpayer for some of us, right?) Export is the key. Bring the money into THIS country and royalties will rise as well as our standard of living. One could argue that greedy companies would sell off into exports and short change the country. Why would they do that? Wax would love it! Because it would raise royalties and costs to get gas from angry landowners . Not a good way to do business.

Wax, you missed my mod so i will wait to respond after you have read it. My apologies in advance.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 07, 2013, 08:06:56 PM
What kind of time frame do you see for exports to develop for natural gas?
Mohawk I think it will happen as fast as the EPA allows the gas companys to do it,this is a big money maker for thr gas companys.

3-5 y-e-a-r-s  down the road ...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 07, 2013, 08:13:51 PM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.


There are MAJOR natural gas fields all over the planet that are going to be coming on line ... AND ... they were  / have been ... intended for export from the beginning ... meaning liquefaction plants and tanker fleets ... already contracted for.

What does this mean????   It means major competition for the U.S. natural gas supplies ... because the United States has been sitting on ... [to be polite] ... its thumbs.

We could have been certifying U.S. cars for use of methanol/ethanol/ CNG ... but while Brazil has done that ... the United States has not.

Instead the EPA has been making a Federal case out of converting your car to CNG or methanol or ethanol.

Instead of actually doing something, our guys have been grunting and yelling to "sell more natural gas".

Please read "Turning Oil Into Salt"  and also "Energy Victory".   

Those books have the blue prints for success.   All the details.


If you don't want to read these books and get all into all the messy details, then call the Governor and get someone on his staff to read these books.

We need action ... not more bumper stickers.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Wax on February 07, 2013, 08:51:38 PM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.


There are MAJOR natural gas fields all over the planet that are going to be coming on line ... AND ... they were  / have been ... intended for export from the beginning ... meaning liquefaction plants and tanker fleets ... already contracted for.

What does this mean????   It means major competition for the U.S. natural gas supplies ... because the United States has been sitting on ... [to be polite] ... its thumbs.

We could have been certifying U.S. cars for use of methanol/ethanol/ CNG ... but while Brazil has done that ... the United States has not.

Instead the EPA has been making a Federal case out of converting your car to CNG or methanol or ethanol.

Instead of actually doing something, our guys have been grunting and yelling to "sell more natural gas".

Please read "Turning Oil Into Salt"  and also "Energy Victory".   

Those books have the blue prints for success.   All the details.


If you don't want to read these books and get all into all the messy details, then call the Governor and get someone on his staff to read these books.

We need action ... not more bumper stickers.
Iran is the leader in CNG automobiles. It"s the way the U.S.A> wants it. No secret , its safe, plentiful, and inexpensive. Its not B.O. but the rich and powerful that run the country.
We cannot even get a politician, in our own back yard to "do whats good for us". Why on earth, would you think someone in Washington would ? Oh! someone farted outside. Potential hurricane from the fart. Gas just jumped 12-cents at the pumps. Were using less fuel ,than 10 years ago, and gasoline is going up. That blows the supply and demand theory.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 08, 2013, 05:12:35 AM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.


There are MAJOR natural gas fields all over the planet that are going to be coming on line ... AND ... they were  / have been ... intended for export from the beginning ... meaning liquefaction plants and tanker fleets ... already contracted for.

What does this mean????   It means major competition for the U.S. natural gas supplies ... because the United States has been sitting on ... [to be polite] ... its thumbs.

We could have been certifying U.S. cars for use of methanol/ethanol/ CNG ... but while Brazil has done that ... the United States has not.

Instead the EPA has been making a Federal case out of converting your car to CNG or methanol or ethanol.

Instead of actually doing something, our guys have been grunting and yelling to "sell more natural gas".

Please read "Turning Oil Into Salt"  and also "Energy Victory".   

Those books have the blue prints for success.   All the details.


If you don't want to read these books and get all into all the messy details, then call the Governor and get someone on his staff to read these books.

We need action ... not more bumper stickers.
Iran is the leader in CNG automobiles. It"s the way the U.S.A> wants it. No secret , its safe, plentiful, and inexpensive. Its not B.O. but the rich and powerful that run the country.
We cannot even get a politician, in our own back yard to "do whats good for us". Why on earth, would you think someone in Washington would ? Oh! someone farted outside. Potential hurricane from the fart. Gas just jumped 12-cents at the pumps. Were using less fuel ,than 10 years ago, and gasoline is going up. That blows the supply and demand theory.

The prices are set by OPEC ... and the prices will continue to be set by OPEC until the United States decides to get serious about making oil a non-strategic commodity.

Making a commodity non-strategic has already been done with salt, with wood, with coal ... and we can do it with oil ... simply by making all cars certified to burn CNG, methanol, ethanol, and gasoline.  And, if you do it with a plug-in hybrid, then you are golden.

[The problem with just an electric car or just a plug-in hybrid is if the power goes down then you are no longer energy independent.]

Once 20% of cars on the road are quad-fueled, the role of OPEC will go away.

Read those two books I mentioned:  "Turning Oil Into Salt" and "Energy Victory" ... talk with the governor of Pennsylvania to get him to push the multi-fuel car.

Brazil has already got most of this done already.

And the cars are available.

Read those two books ... all the details are in there.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Wax on February 08, 2013, 07:10:30 AM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.


There are MAJOR natural gas fields all over the planet that are going to be coming on line ... AND ... they were  / have been ... intended for export from the beginning ... meaning liquefaction plants and tanker fleets ... already contracted for.

What does this mean????   It means major competition for the U.S. natural gas supplies ... because the United States has been sitting on ... [to be polite] ... its thumbs.

We could have been certifying U.S. cars for use of methanol/ethanol/ CNG ... but while Brazil has done that ... the United States has not.

Instead the EPA has been making a Federal case out of converting your car to CNG or methanol or ethanol.

Instead of actually doing something, our guys have been grunting and yelling to "sell more natural gas".

Please read "Turning Oil Into Salt"  and also "Energy Victory".   

Those books have the blue prints for success.   All the details.


If you don't want to read these books and get all into all the messy details, then call the Governor and get someone on his staff to read these books.

We need action ... not more bumper stickers.
Iran is the leader in CNG automobiles. It"s the way the U.S.A> wants it. No secret , its safe, plentiful, and inexpensive. Its not B.O. but the rich and powerful that run the country.
We cannot even get a politician, in our own back yard to "do whats good for us". Why on earth, would you think someone in Washington would ? Oh! someone farted outside. Potential hurricane from the fart. Gas just jumped 12-cents at the pumps. Were using less fuel ,than 10 years ago, and gasoline is going up. That blows the supply and demand theory.

The prices are set by OPEC ... and the prices will continue to be set by OPEC until the United States decides to get serious about making oil a non-strategic commodity.

Making a commodity non-strategic has already been done with salt, with wood, with coal ... and we can do it with oil ... simply by making all cars certified to burn CNG, methanol, ethanol, and gasoline.  And, if you do it with a plug-in hybrid, then you are golden.

[The problem with just an electric car or just a plug-in hybrid is if the power goes down then you are no longer energy independent.]

Once 20% of cars on the road are quad-fueled, the role of OPEC will go away.

Read those two books I mentioned:  "Turning Oil Into Salt" and "Energy Victory" ... talk with the governor of Pennsylvania to get him to push the multi-fuel car.

Brazil has already got most of this done already.

And the cars are available.

Read those two books ... all the details are in there.
Hawk, nobody is stopping the industry from using natural gas as a transportation fuel in their own vehicles. Lead by example.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: realman on February 08, 2013, 07:33:04 AM
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_gas_stations_have_American_fuel_supplied_to_them  A little off topic but interesting.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: aktony on February 08, 2013, 08:12:53 AM
http://theadvocate.com/home/5126789-125/japanese-utility-to-import-lng


Japanese utility to import LNG from Louisiana

BY ELAINE KURTENBACH
AP business writer
February 08, 2013

TOKYO ? Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the devastated Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, plans to buy liquefied natural gas from the LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, raising expectations Japan will tap into the U.S. shale gas boom.

TEPCO plans to buy 400,000 tons of LNG a year, for 20 years beginning in 2017, from Cheniere Energy?s Cameron project through trading house Mitsui & Co. It expects a similar deal with Mitsubishi Corp. and other deals that would boost its imports by 1.2 million tons a year, the company said.

Both deals link the LNG price to the Henry Hub benchmark, at about $3.30 per million metric British thermal units, much lower than what Japan pays for its current gas imports. TEPCO said it was the first time it had set a long-term contract to the lower benchmark.

Mitsui and Mitsubishi are targeting 4 million metric tons a year in U.S. LNG exports from the Cameron project, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper reported.

Japan wants to cut costs for fuel imports that have surged after most of its nuclear plants were taken offline following the March 2011 accident at Fukushima Dai-Ichi. The cost of most of its LNG imports is linked to crude oil prices, nearly five times the Henry Hub level as of late last year.

A boom in U.S. gas production has taken U.S. prices to 10-year lows, thanks to hydraulic fracturing, where millions of gallons of water, mixed with sand and chemicals, are forced underground under high pressure to crack rock formations and release natural gas or oil.

The increased domestic supply has reduced U.S. demand for LNG from the Middle East. That is freeing up more LNG for Asia, which accounts for 30 percent of global consumption.

But resource-scarce Japan?s access to U.S. shale gas is limited by restrictions on exports of LNG to countries that have free-trade agreements with Washington, which does not include its longtime Asian ally. Tokyo is lobbying for changes in that policy, which limits it to buying gas from the Cameron Parish terminal.

In the meantime, Japanese trading houses and energy companies are seeking access to LNG from Canada and elsewhere.

The Japanese government, which took power in late December led by the Liberal Democratic Party, appears to be backing away from a commitment by the previous administration to phase out nuclear power. But tighter regulations following the Fukushima accident and public opposition are slowing any moves to bring back online nuclear plants shut down for safety checks.

Soaring imports of oil and gas helped push Japan?s trade deficit in 2012 to $75 billion. As the largest Japanese electricity company, TEPCO is especially keen to reduce costs for its fuel imports.

It said its facilities, designed to handle so-called ?hot? or ?rich? LNG, need to be adapted to the type of ?lean LNG? ? LNG with a low heating value ? to be shipped from the Cameron project.

A 10-year plan the company announced earlier calls for importing 10 million metric tons per year of lean LNG, expanding its LNG storage capacity, setting up a specialized LNG receiving terminal and upgrading equipment.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: realman on February 08, 2013, 08:33:07 AM
What are the implications of (price was linked to Henry Hub $3.30)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 08, 2013, 09:11:41 AM
No idea. I ask myself when the oil companies want to see it and i dont know the answer.
>>>> On the Cheniere website, they are estimating that at their new plant on Sabine Pass that they will have the "first train" of the LNG plant up and running by the second quarter of 2015.  When at full capacity with several production lines going simultaneously the Cheniere plant is supposed to be able to process and ship some 2 billion cubic feet a day, which is about 3% of total US current daily production.  There are some 20 LNG plants envisioned so far, although it is not likely that they all will be actually built.  I don't know if LNG exports would necessarily cause the price of gas to soar, I think it is more likely that they will instead put in a floor price somewhat above the levels seen in this time of glut.  The big oil companies would obviously like a better price for their secondary product, natural gas.  And I think practices such as the flaring of natural gas at the Bakken field is not only wasteful in their eyes, but it also hurts their image of being environmentally conscious.


There are MAJOR natural gas fields all over the planet that are going to be coming on line ... AND ... they were  / have been ... intended for export from the beginning ... meaning liquefaction plants and tanker fleets ... already contracted for.

What does this mean????   It means major competition for the U.S. natural gas supplies ... because the United States has been sitting on ... [to be polite] ... its thumbs.

We could have been certifying U.S. cars for use of methanol/ethanol/ CNG ... but while Brazil has done that ... the United States has not.

Instead the EPA has been making a Federal case out of converting your car to CNG or methanol or ethanol.

Instead of actually doing something, our guys have been grunting and yelling to "sell more natural gas".

Please read "Turning Oil Into Salt"  and also "Energy Victory".   

Those books have the blue prints for success.   All the details.


If you don't want to read these books and get all into all the messy details, then call the Governor and get someone on his staff to read these books.

We need action ... not more bumper stickers.
Iran is the leader in CNG automobiles. It"s the way the U.S.A> wants it. No secret , its safe, plentiful, and inexpensive. Its not B.O. but the rich and powerful that run the country.
We cannot even get a politician, in our own back yard to "do whats good for us". Why on earth, would you think someone in Washington would ? Oh! someone farted outside. Potential hurricane from the fart. Gas just jumped 12-cents at the pumps. Were using less fuel ,than 10 years ago, and gasoline is going up. That blows the supply and demand theory.

The prices are set by OPEC ... and the prices will continue to be set by OPEC until the United States decides to get serious about making oil a non-strategic commodity.

Making a commodity non-strategic has already been done with salt, with wood, with coal ... and we can do it with oil ... simply by making all cars certified to burn CNG, methanol, ethanol, and gasoline.  And, if you do it with a plug-in hybrid, then you are golden.

[The problem with just an electric car or just a plug-in hybrid is if the power goes down then you are no longer energy independent.]

Once 20% of cars on the road are quad-fueled, the role of OPEC will go away.

Read those two books I mentioned:  "Turning Oil Into Salt" and "Energy Victory" ... talk with the governor of Pennsylvania to get him to push the multi-fuel car.

Brazil has already got most of this done already.

And the cars are available.

Read those two books ... all the details are in there.
Hawk, nobody is stopping the industry from using natural gas as a transportation fuel in their own vehicles. Lead by example.


The EPA has strangled the conversions ... this is from a previous post:


So, what we are left with regarding CNG is that ... technically, it is a simple operation to do the conversion, but it's the regulators who are holding up progress.

Allegedly, the EPA rules have been simplified  ... so, read this and see for yourself how simple those rules or revised rules are.

All they need to do is say that the rules are canceled.

But nope.

http://www.epa.gov/oms/consumer/fuels/altfuels/420f11006.htm

Here's more reading ...

http://www.gonaturalcng.com/conversions/epa-certified-conversion-kits.html

Even I find this depressing ...

? Last Edit: July 05, 2012, 07:25:00 AM by mohawk70 ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 08, 2013, 09:13:27 AM
 Blue Laugh

2017?

 Blue Laugh
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 08, 2013, 10:01:43 AM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 08, 2013, 02:09:01 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 08, 2013, 04:13:07 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 08, 2013, 04:49:39 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.

Are you against exporting NG from this country?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 08, 2013, 04:56:24 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.

Our you against exporting NG from this country?

No
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: haybaler on February 08, 2013, 05:11:52 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.

Our you against exporting NG from this country?

No

Well if america becomes an major if not the largest energy exporter in the world do you think adversial countries like russia would allow free flow of shipping? So again i question your exceptance of a free global market to sell our gas, when you or anybody else reading my last quote, would except the reduction of our blue water navy to protect those ships making way into the FREE MARKET.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 08, 2013, 05:38:52 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.

Our you against exporting NG from this country?

No

Well if america becomes an major if not the largest energy exporter in the world do you think adversial countries like russia would allow free flow of shipping? So again i question your exceptance of a free global market to sell our gas, when you or anybody else reading my last quote, would except the reduction of our blue water navy to protect those ships making way into the FREE MARKET.

The very FIRST war that the new United States of America fought was in 1805 against pirates that were preventing free flow of shipping.

There were major cost overruns in the construction of U.S. main battle ships.  Big scandal.   But, when push came to shove ... Old Ironsides proved itself.   

Now we are in the midst of a so-called "sequestration" budget maneuver.  Actually, there is NO BUDGET ... we are going from one continuing resolution to another. 

BUT, the "plan" is to make severe cuts in our defense spending.

We have paid the price in the past for underspending on military.

And ... we may pay the price again.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Wax on February 08, 2013, 07:45:18 PM
Export will raise the price here. Once ng is exported freely, the price will be set by the world market.

Freely? I dont think so. World market? He who delivers the goods at the best price determines the price. And another thought would be the amount of manufacturing that will and already has come to this country because of the our gas. Another good business move.

That's what a market is, where sellers and buyers come together and establish the going rate at the moment based on which seller will,offer at the lowest price and which buyer will make the highest offer. Where these come together is the market pric. Where buyers and sellers from all,over the world interact it is a world market.

I know what a free market is. And we see how well it works for oil. The united states keeps two aircraft carriers on station in the middle east to make sure it flows freely, or at least we used to. I wonder what will happen to market when there are no carriers there? fall freely I'd bet. The buyers will panic and the sellers will determine the market  pric.

Ok, not sure how that affects us exporting nat gas. Missed the connection.

Our you against exporting NG from this country?

No

Well if america becomes an major if not the largest energy exporter in the world do you think adversial countries like russia would allow free flow of shipping? So again i question your exceptance of a free global market to sell our gas, when you or anybody else reading my last quote, would except the reduction of our blue water navy to protect those ships making way into the FREE MARKET.

The very FIRST war that the new United States of America fought was in 1805 against pirates that were preventing free flow of shipping.

There were major cost overruns in the construction of U.S. main battle ships.  Big scandal.   But, when push came to shove ... Old Ironsides proved itself.   

Now we are in the midst of a so-called "sequestration" budget maneuver.  Actually, there is NO BUDGET ... we are going from one continuing resolution to another. 

BUT, the "plan" is to make severe cuts in our defense spending.

We have paid the price in the past for underspending on military.

And ... we may pay the price again.
Their is a Drone near you. Remote defensive and offensive. No need to get it right,  nobody will know. Its the present & future.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 11, 2013, 06:23:31 AM
Monday  11 February 2013  9:21am ET


$3.21
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on February 14, 2013, 02:24:28 PM

What`s happening to NG pricing?   Why the drop?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on February 14, 2013, 02:33:28 PM

  Cause we got too much.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 14, 2013, 02:35:37 PM

  Cause we got too much.

And now we are going to drill more ... Wish mine was on hold a few years.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on February 14, 2013, 03:19:25 PM

Throughout my 40 years of business connections with all types of industrial markets, I have never experienced anything like what we are now seeing in the NG industry.  Those business sectors would produce everything they could to gain market control.   They succeeded because they could deliver a product more cheaply or more abundantly.  This is going to be some ride!!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 14, 2013, 03:52:47 PM
It is if you think about it. They will not be in a big hurry to drill all the wells in a unit even in wet areas. Way too much wet gas coming on line over the next few years. I do not see any way around that. Infrastructure. Plus Utica/Point Pleasant in some areas is going to surprise those who do not follow closely. Maybe 250 wells drilled already, with many waiting on pipelines or just resting for 60 or so days. Chesapeake was  planning along the lines of 150 Utica wells this year.


  Cause we got too much.

And now we are going to drill more ... Wish mine was on hold a few years.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 15, 2013, 04:45:37 AM
Friday  15 February 2013  7:44am ET


$3.16
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 19, 2013, 07:20:44 AM
Tuesday  19 February 2013  10:18am ET


$3.24
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on February 19, 2013, 01:37:34 PM

Here we go back up...are the chill winds of winter kicking NG prices  back upward?  Let`s hope...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 20, 2013, 04:36:40 AM
Wednesday  20 February 2013  7:36am ET


$3.31
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: firecutter874 on February 20, 2013, 05:49:23 AM
Thanks Shinobi for these up-dates, keep them coming, they are appreciated.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 20, 2013, 05:57:33 AM
Curious, how many have their royalties based on the current ng price and how many have it based on contract or other price? If it is based on the current price, do you get an avg price for the month or the price it was sold for on the day it was sold?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on February 20, 2013, 09:06:17 AM

  Berk, I dont think anyone knows.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 20, 2013, 09:35:42 AM

  Berk, I dont think anyone knows.

Doesnt the check stubb tell that info?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on February 20, 2013, 09:39:37 AM

  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 20, 2013, 09:45:33 AM

  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.

Hmm. Have people been asked and blown off? How could one audit if this info is not shared? They could be just kidding about what they sell it for.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 20, 2013, 10:10:34 AM
NRG1, and others (maybe Ithaca Jack long ago not sure) have gone over and over this.

At this stage you can not from stubs. The conclusion that more can not potentially be reported to the landowner, is where the debate is at. Nothing accounting wise to stop the checks from having more details. Just my opinion.


  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.

Hmm. Have people been asked and blown off? How could one audit if this info is not shared? They could be just kidding about what they sell it for.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 20, 2013, 10:49:53 AM
NRG1, and others (maybe Ithaca Jack long ago not sure) have gone over and over this.

At this stage you can not from stubs. The conclusion that more can not potentially be reported to the landowner, is where the debate is at. Nothing accounting wise to stop the checks from having more details. Just my opinion.


  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.

Hmm. Have people been asked and blown off? How could one audit if this info is not shared? They could be just kidding about what they sell it for.

I was wondering if any royalty owners here had requested more information from their lessee on how the price used was arrived at and if so, of the lessee had responded with more complete information on request or denied the royalty owner that information and if denied what they used as their justification.

It is true, i do not read all the threads on this board every day. There arent that many hours in the day! Perhaps if someone repeats an answer it will not only benefit me but others too. But if they dont want to, that's ok too. I'm not really asking why the gas companies dont report more detail, that is of no concern to me. I am asking if they are more forthcoming when specifically asked about basis for price reported.



Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on February 20, 2013, 10:56:42 AM
NRG1, and others (maybe Ithaca Jack long ago not sure) have gone over and over this.

At this stage you can not from stubs. The conclusion that more can not potentially be reported to the landowner, is where the debate is at. Nothing accounting wise to stop the checks from having more details. Just my opinion.


  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.

Hmm. Have people been asked and blown off? How could one audit if this info is not shared? They could be just kidding about what they sell it for.

I was wondering if any royalty owners here had requested more information from their lessee on how the price used was arrived at and if so, of the lessee had responded with more complete information on request or denied the royalty owner that information and if denied what they used as their justification.

It is true, i do not read all the threads on this board every day. There arent that many hours in the day! Perhaps if someone repeats an answer it will not only benefit me but others too. But if they dont want to, that's ok too. I'm not really asking why the gas companies dont report more detail, that is of no concern to me. I am asking if they are more forthcoming when specifically asked about basis for price reported.

A while back, I asked ... and they said no.

Take it or leave it.

[mild, but not complete exaggeration.]
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 20, 2013, 11:50:35 AM
Sorry Berkeley, I misunderstood.

Thanks Mohawk.

"A while back, I asked ... and they said no.

Take it or leave it.

[mild, but not complete exaggeration.]"
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 20, 2013, 11:50:57 AM
NRG1, and others (maybe Ithaca Jack long ago not sure) have gone over and over this.

At this stage you can not from stubs. The conclusion that more can not potentially be reported to the landowner, is where the debate is at. Nothing accounting wise to stop the checks from having more details. Just my opinion.


  Gives a number. How they  determine the number is really not known.

Hmm. Have people been asked and blown off? How could one audit if this info is not shared? They could be just kidding about what they sell it for.

I was wondering if any royalty owners here had requested more information from their lessee on how the price used was arrived at and if so, of the lessee had responded with more complete information on request or denied the royalty owner that information and if denied what they used as their justification.

It is true, i do not read all the threads on this board every day. There arent that many hours in the day! Perhaps if someone repeats an answer it will not only benefit me but others too. But if they dont want to, that's ok too. I'm not really asking why the gas companies dont report more detail, that is of no concern to me. I am asking if they are more forthcoming when specifically asked about basis for price reported.

A while back, I asked ... and they said no.

Take it or leave it.

[mild, but not complete exaggeration.]

You deal with CHK ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 24, 2013, 06:28:06 PM
Sunday  24 February 2013  9:24pm  ET


$3.36


Price seems to be trending up just a bit.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on February 25, 2013, 05:36:37 AM
Monday  25 February 2013  8:34am ET


$3.41


Nice uptrend
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: flyfisher on February 25, 2013, 10:59:45 AM

This uptick in NG pricing is nice to see.   Anyone know what is happening to the market for this increase to occur, or is it just a temporary movement?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on February 25, 2013, 12:25:34 PM

This uptick in NG pricing is nice to see.   Anyone know what is happening to the market for this increase to occur, or is it just a temporary movement?

Cnbc said it was cold weather forecast.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on February 27, 2013, 07:25:41 AM
Wednesday  27 February 2013  10:22am  ET


$3.51


 ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on March 04, 2013, 02:35:09 PM
Monday  04 March 2013  5:33pm ET


$3.53
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on March 05, 2013, 10:31:17 AM
Thanks shinobi, I like so many others I am sure, look for your updates on the nat. gas price.


firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: donegal on March 05, 2013, 11:18:05 AM
Thanks shinobi, I like so many others I am sure, look for your updates on the nat. gas price.


firecutter

F-f-f-f-Ford man,
Shinny is nice that way.  ALSO Uncle Ronnie has an "Energies Monitor"  Board showing pricesl .  It can be found by clicking on the Home page and then looking in lower left corner.

http://www.naturalgasforums.com/naturalgasforums.php


Jus' tryin' to make it so's Shinny can take a Vacation sometimes.
Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on March 06, 2013, 02:58:05 PM
Wednesday  06 March 2013  5:57pm  ET


$3.47
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on March 07, 2013, 07:51:29 AM
07 March 2013  10:50am  ET



$3.59


Strong uptrend.  Dunno why.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on March 07, 2013, 08:35:06 AM
07 March 2013  10:50am  ET



$3.59


Strong uptrend.  Dunno why.
>>>> In the Yahoo Finance commodity news it was mentioned that there had been a fairly substantial draw down in gas in storage last week.  Which might help to explain the slight pop upwards.  Or it might be simple dumb luck.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on March 07, 2013, 11:26:58 AM
Nice drop in propane stocks as well. But the local price stayed the same as last week.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 07, 2013, 12:35:10 PM
Have seen projections as high as 600 Bcf below last years storage by the end of the injection season.

Noticed yesterday that the cash price for next day delivery March 5'th for Mar 6'th. at the Henry Hub was somewhere around  3.60 if I remember correctly. Around 10 cents above the futures. Yesterday gas for delivery today was 3.57. Maybe a case of the futures price adjusting to the actual current market?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on March 07, 2013, 05:44:53 PM
Good to see $3.59, we are not receiving any MBM (Mail Box Money) the units we are in are waiting for Pipe Lines, rumor is the will be testing the lines the end of this mo. hopefully, in the next 9 to 12 Mo. they will be shipping Gas, and with any luck we'll see $4. Gas.
Keep wipping that Horse.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: 77flh on March 08, 2013, 02:18:30 PM
3.63
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on March 11, 2013, 03:33:00 AM

What will we see this week with NG prices?  Still climbing.....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on March 11, 2013, 05:56:02 AM
With the wind down of winter it certainly is not the demand for winter heating which is giving the gas market a little pop up recently.  If there is one big positive factor I would think it has to be the rapid replacement of coal by natural gas by electric utility companies.  The nice thing about the electricity business is that it brings in a user of gas which is fairly steady all year round rather than seasonal.  In recent weeks there have been a number of articles where energy companies and the people who follow their affairs have been stating that a price of 4 dollars or better would be a turning point for many companies and individual wells in terms of profitability. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: realman on March 11, 2013, 06:30:33 AM
 the rolling brown outs the electric companys do in the height of summer might not happen now with natural gas generators.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on March 11, 2013, 09:39:21 AM

What will we see this week with NG prices?  Still climbing.....

Things are pretty quiet right now:

Monday  11 March 2013   12:37pm  ET


$3.64
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on March 13, 2013, 08:21:39 PM
Wednesday  13 March 2013  11:21pm  ET


$3.69
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on March 14, 2013, 07:19:27 AM
As always thanks Shinobi,.

If you should have the information, what was the lowest price for NG, & what was the date?

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Berkeley on March 14, 2013, 07:23:00 AM
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3m.htm

May need to adjust for inflation.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on March 14, 2013, 07:48:42 AM

  I dont really understand why the the price of ng

  is rising so quickly. Im glad to see it.

  Could it be the power companies are making long

   term price contracts ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Berkeley on March 14, 2013, 07:53:50 AM

  I dont really understand why the the price of ng

  is rising so quickly. Im glad to see it.

  Could it be the power companies are making long

   term price contracts ?

Makes sense to me that they would.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 14, 2013, 08:28:26 AM
11 weeks in a row of over 100 Bcf of withdrawals. Storage is now around 450 Bcf below last years. Temperature is forecast to stay favorable until first week of April.

http://powerburn.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_16.html
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 14, 2013, 08:43:20 AM
From the same blog I linked to in my previous post.

"Back in April of 2012, shortly after prices fell to a decade low of $1.90/MMBTU, we saw an unbelievable 16 straight storage reports from the week of April 27?when natural gas was $2.03/MMBTU?to August 10?when natural gas was $2.90/MMBTU"

As always thanks Shinobi,.

If you should have the information, what was the lowest price for NG, & what was the date?

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on March 14, 2013, 08:45:50 AM
I like that powerburn blog. Or maybe it's just saying what I want to hear.

" I expect a withdrawal of >145 BCF will be viewed by analysts as sufficiently bullish to keep this party going on a little longer and send prices north of $3.70/MMBTU."

Storage figures released today shows withdrawal of 145 Bcf and correspondingly good propane numbers.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 14, 2013, 08:57:17 AM
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/US-natural-gas-supplies-shrank-last-week-4354648.php
storage 12% above 5 yr average but 18.5% below last year. Still a good start.
Best news in years. Here's hoping we see at least $4.75 in short term. ;D
Another cold storm would help.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on March 14, 2013, 11:59:05 AM

Dare we feel excited for further price increase...this sure feels good now!  ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 14, 2013, 01:12:26 PM

Dare we feel excited for further price increase...this sure feels good now!  ;D

Perhaps


Thursday  14 March 2013  4:10pm  ET


$3.83


 ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 17, 2013, 04:25:08 PM
Sunday  16 March 2013  7:24pm ET


$3.93

ETA

Note:

Well, the (futures) markets have opened.  They open Sunday evening here since it's (Monday) morning in the Far East and trading has begun.  Natural gas seems to be doing well.

Contributors to this thread are invited to record the day, and time, you believe NG will break $4.00.  From the looks of this trend, it could happen this week.  Heck, the way things are going, it could happen this evening!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on March 17, 2013, 04:57:46 PM

Monday morning - March 18 @ 8:00am  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on March 17, 2013, 05:10:07 PM
What the heck, I'll give it a try,

Monday March 18, @ 9: 23AM

Now the real guesstamate when would it be $4.25 ;) ;) ;) ;)

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on March 17, 2013, 05:39:35 PM

  Dont jinx it. ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 18, 2013, 05:35:18 AM
Monday  18 March 2013  8:29am ET


$3.95

This is like waiting for the ball to drop on New Year's Eve.

Note:

As has been the case throughout the history of this thread:

The NG price will have to reach $4.01, it will have to cross $4.00, before the title will change.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on March 18, 2013, 05:42:27 AM

When was the last date that NG prices were at or above $4?  :)   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 18, 2013, 05:54:51 AM

When was the last date that NG prices were at or above $4?  :)

Dunno.  Not in the history of this thread I think.  But that's less than a year.

Here's the thing:

I heard on WNEP this morning that there is no warm weather in the forecast until April!!  And there's a possible nor'easter coming early next week!

Last year at this time in March temperatures were very, very warm.  These developments have to be helping the NG price to rise.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on March 18, 2013, 05:56:32 AM
It looks like the last time natural gas was 4 dollars or better at Henry Hub was September 15, 2011.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on March 18, 2013, 06:48:35 AM

When was the last date that NG prices were at or above $4?  :)

Dunno.  Not in the history of this thread I think.  But that's less than a year.

Here's the thing:

I heard on WNEP this morning that there is no warm weather in the forecast until April!!  And there's a possible nor'easter coming early next week!

Last year at this time in March temperatures were very, very warm.  These developments have to be helping the NG price to rise.


There is a new ice age "on the way" ... no global warming in 30 years ... they're undoing the bogus "warming data" ... can no longer fake it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on March 18, 2013, 07:09:24 AM
That chaos with the bank account seizures in Cyprus has GOT to cause enough insecurity in the commodity markets to drive up the price of natural gas here.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 19, 2013, 11:27:07 AM
Tuesday  19 March 2013  3:00pm ET


$3.97


Looks like a blizzard outside right now.  You can almost feel the price rising. :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on March 19, 2013, 05:29:35 PM

Is the New Year`s Ball about to drop?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: jackatc1 on March 20, 2013, 08:51:17 AM
Not in New York because Coumo doesnt have any. 8)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: zeus4513 on March 20, 2013, 03:17:31 PM
I found this article which talks about the future of NG, and pricing.  Looks great!

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-03-15/markets/37725566_1_natural-gas-prices-natural-gas-shale-gas-wells
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: GOTGAS on March 21, 2013, 05:37:43 AM
Very Uplifting article.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Chicken Farmer on March 21, 2013, 07:34:11 AM
3.994 as of 10:30am.

Have the drums ready.

(Not that it's overly relevant to us folks in NY)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on March 21, 2013, 07:54:31 AM
I see from the Yahoo Finance site that natural gas hit 4 dollars as of 10:13 in the nearest futures contract.  The chilly  Spring weather might be having a hand.  I think the more important factors are the months long slow down in drilling and the very significant switch from coal to gas which seems to be gathering momentum.  As low as 4 dollars is, it's the highest price in about 1 1/2 years.  The biggest question is if this beaten down commodity can stay above 4 for any significant amount of time.  Various pundits have been saying that a 4 dollar price might start to make some real changes in terms of industry profitability and budgets for exploration and drilling.  And I have to wonder how high a price it will take for the various energy companies who have had their leases put into the deep freeze by New York State, the DRBC and other obstructionists, in order to prompt them to take legal actions in order to assert their property interests.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 21, 2013, 10:46:57 AM
Thursday  21 March 2013  1:45pm ET


$3.94
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 22, 2013, 09:09:25 AM
Should break  $4.01 on Thur. 03/28/2013 at 10:31 AM probably close $4.12 or above.  ;)
CHK has 40% of production sold in futures market.
Might get very interesting on 04/04/2013. Storage could get below 5yr avg. ;D ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on March 22, 2013, 09:18:06 AM
Should break  $4.01 on Thur. 03/28/2013 at 10:31 AM ...
I think this will be the winner. It may just dance around below that point until the next storage report comes out.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 22, 2013, 02:33:26 PM
Hopefully a good percentage of this is not seasonal , and helps to support demand year round.  Also great to see domestic use expanding.
 
"U.S. demand also was higher, with increases in industrial and res/comm levels more than offsetting a drop in power burn. Industrial demand has averaged about 21 Bcf/d in 1Q2013, its highest level since before the U.S. economy headed into recession in late 2007."
 
http://www.bentekenergy.com/ (http://www.bentekenergy.com/)
 
 
 
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 25, 2013, 06:31:00 AM
Monday  25 March 2013  9:30am  ET


$3.99
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on March 26, 2013, 11:15:44 AM
Tuesday  26 March 2013  2:14pm ET


$3.98

Price is rebounding nicely after having fallen abruptly following my last post.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: STRIPER on March 26, 2013, 01:37:44 PM
03-26-13 4;30PM 

Nat Gas 4.002 ($4.00) Market closes
Get the party hats out
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on March 26, 2013, 01:41:01 PM

Whooohooooo!!!   It looks great to see even if it doesn`t last too long ;D

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Chicken Farmer on March 26, 2013, 01:50:33 PM
The previous trough could have been created by financially strapped producers dumping their inventory.

If the gascos have decent cash flow, prices should stabilize.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 26, 2013, 02:21:10 PM
Tuesday  26 March 2013  5:15pm ET


$4.01


 handclap handclap handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: bellbucci on March 26, 2013, 02:35:12 PM
I couldn't find the answer in a few pages of earlier posts -- what price are you using? The INO contract for April is still at $3.98.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 26, 2013, 02:42:37 PM
I couldn't find the answer in a few pages of earlier posts -- what price are you using? The INO contract for April is still at $3.98.

Using the NYMEX "front month" futures price as displayed at bloomberg.com, here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/)

Price being shown by Admin on front page of forum seems to track the Bloomberg price very closely.

Have been using this same Bloomberg price since inception of this thread.  Price as I write this is at four bucks even.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: firecutter874 on March 26, 2013, 04:20:50 PM
Thank goodness it busted through the "Glass Ceiling" now those receiving MBM (Mail Box Money) will see much more of the $$$$$ they/we deserve. ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 27, 2013, 05:45:18 AM
Wednesday  27 March 2013  8:44am ET


$4.06


Onward and upward   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 27, 2013, 01:21:05 PM
Wednesday  27 March 2013  4:20pm ET


$4.09


Reaction:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100597089 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100597089)


Opposition:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/03/27/u-s-liquefied-gas-exports-face-mounting-opposition/ (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/03/27/u-s-liquefied-gas-exports-face-mounting-opposition/)


Protestation:

http://socialistworker.org/2013/03/27/vermonters-protest-the-pipeline (http://socialistworker.org/2013/03/27/vermonters-protest-the-pipeline)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: flyfisher on March 27, 2013, 01:45:14 PM

So, how long will it take for drills to return?   Will this price level need to be above $4 for several months before they return or what?  How do the O&G companies see this surge in price?   Is it a "let`s wait & see attitude"?  Looks good to me ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 27, 2013, 03:34:21 PM
It's still a drill to hold (HBP) game. Will help to stop the losses for that but not cause drilling where HBP is in effect. Even at $5 don't want a boom in drilling to cause another freefall in prices again. Might even cut back production from current wells. Don't need to sell it all to get pay back on well costs. Might even get to a "sweet spot" in pricing $7  handclap I'm hoping there.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on March 27, 2013, 06:02:49 PM
High enough to make it profitable, low enough to be the no-brainer energy source.

And no wild swings please.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: bellbucci on March 28, 2013, 08:05:47 AM
Another good storage number released today. And propane stocks are at their lowest since around July 2011.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 28, 2013, 07:13:47 PM
Thursday  28 March 2013  10:09pm  ET


$4.02


On the way up, the $4.00 price point seemed to offer resistance.  Let's hope, for the sake of any downward price proclivities, it offers support in equal measure.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on March 29, 2013, 12:33:10 PM
Friday  29 March 2013  3:31pm ET


$4.02
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 03, 2013, 06:08:50 AM
Wednesday  03 April 2013  9:07am ET



$3.94


Down a bit
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 05, 2013, 07:20:32 AM
Friday  05 April 2013  10:20am  ET


$4.05

Price has been bouncing around near to the $4.00 mark.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: flyfisher on April 05, 2013, 12:47:46 PM

Is there any explanation for today`s surge in NG pricing?  Feels nice...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 05, 2013, 12:54:23 PM

Is there any explanation for today`s surge in NG pricing?  Feels nice...

Yes.  Of course there's an explanation.  I just don't know what it is.   ;D

It would be nice, though, to change that title to "$4.25"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: macal on April 05, 2013, 01:06:25 PM

  Winter and Summer at the same time. Cold in the North, Hot in the South. Plus storage is at a 2 year low. Read it on Bloomberg.

 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 08, 2013, 09:27:42 AM
Monday  08 April 2013  12:20pm ET


$4.12


(lest we forget):

http://www.myths.com/pub/humor/freberg/st_george.html (http://www.myths.com/pub/humor/freberg/st_george.html)   ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 10, 2013, 07:57:20 AM
Wednesday  10 April 2013  10:53am ET


$4.15


Building a base above $4.00.

Good for landowners with expired/expiring leases?  I think so. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: firecutter874 on April 10, 2013, 08:46:38 AM
Thanks Shinobi, I think it is also good for folks like us who are in Units, but the NG has not gone to market as yet.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: bellbucci on April 12, 2013, 05:45:09 AM
Pretty nice storage report yesterday, the last withdrawal report of the season.

From powerburn.blogspot.com,
The extended forecast through the second week of May continues to be supportive of natural gas prices above $4.00/MMBTU as the temperature forecast trended cooler over the last 24 hours. My model is projecting small injections of +27, +31, and +55 BCF for the next three storage reports, respectively, down a +21 BCF overnight. These are all 10-20 BCF less than the five-year mean weekly injection

He's slightly less optimistic later on in the post.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 12, 2013, 05:52:03 AM
Pretty nice storage report yesterday, the last withdrawal report of the season.

From powerburn.blogspot.com,
The extended forecast through the second week of May continues to be supportive of natural gas prices above $4.00/MMBTU as the temperature forecast trended cooler over the last 24 hours. My model is projecting small injections of +27, +31, and +55 BCF for the next three storage reports, respectively, down a +21 BCF overnight. These are all 10-20 BCF less than the five-year mean weekly injection

He's slightly less optimistic later on in the post.


Friday  12 April 2013  8:48am  ET


$4.21


Thanks, ruby_99.  Whatever is going on out there, it's not hurting our price.  This thread has never seen a price of $4.25 . . . . now is actually within sight!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: flyfisher on April 12, 2013, 12:46:45 PM

Are you watching the NG price, Shinobi?   Very close!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 12, 2013, 12:58:00 PM

Are you watching the NG price, Shinobi?   Very close!

Yeah, it is.  $4.24.  Has to reach $4.26 to change the title.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Chicken Farmer on April 12, 2013, 12:59:52 PM
At 3.56pm, May 2013 Henry Hub is priced at 4.243, yet May 2014 stays at 4.079.

What that may indicate, is that the current pricing is more affected by short term inventory levels.  The longer term outlook does not share the same bullishness.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 12, 2013, 01:06:01 PM
Both CME Henry Hub, and Proliance Nymex May 2013 are at around 4.24
 
At 3.56pm, May 2013 Henry Hub is priced at 4.243, yet May 2014 stays at 4.079.

What that may indicate, is that the current pricing is more affected by short term inventory levels.  The longer term outlook does not share the same bullishness.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on April 12, 2013, 01:06:48 PM

Are you watching the NG price, Shinobi?   Very close!

Yeah, it is.  $4.24.  Has to reach $4.26 to change the title.

i beg to differ obi wan, but your criteria are that the price cross the threshold, you did not say by how much.  headpat

i am watching an index which lists prices to the tenth of a cent, and since anyone can change the thread title (at least for the post), you'd better have your fingers on the keyboard so's ya dont get beat on this'n.  ;)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25!
Post by: aubrey on April 12, 2013, 01:10:55 PM
at 3:28:01 the nymex crossed over to $4.251

there!

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 12, 2013, 01:16:05 PM
Friday  12 April 2013  4:10pm ET


$4.25


Since the beginning of this thread there has been only one source for price information displayed here.  It is consistent and has always been the same:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on April 12, 2013, 01:27:49 PM
 headpat  slaplaugh

it crossed over obi wan, and you missed it.

 slaplaugh
   wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on April 12, 2013, 01:35:24 PM
headpat  slaplaugh

it crossed over obi wan, and you missed it.

 slaplaugh
   wj

Wj stop terrorizing us natives.  We know you're just over here, slummin' after posting your good stuff at GMS, to drive us all nuts.

It's working, BTW.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25 today and obi wan missed it!
Post by: aubrey on April 12, 2013, 01:41:41 PM
cant get nothin' by you obi wan...never could neither.

nonetheless!

                                            $4.251

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: GD on April 12, 2013, 01:45:26 PM
Guys I dom't care why Jim is here. It is just nice to "see wj".   gd
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 12, 2013, 01:46:03 PM
Friday  12 April 2013  4:42pm ET


$4.26

 handclap

The ride from $4.00 up to $4.25 was a quick one.  Is $4.50 next?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on April 12, 2013, 01:48:15 PM
i'll seeya at $4.501 obi wan, dont be late for that one.

hey doc, just dropped in to say howdy.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 14, 2013, 02:39:05 PM
Sunday 14 April 2013  5:36pm ET


$4.22


Down just a tiny bit.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Steve-O on April 14, 2013, 03:58:18 PM
Mr. Zane sez it will reach 4.50 by June 2013
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Brushburn on April 14, 2013, 07:09:57 PM
We should all remember just a short period of time ago when we all thought we would never see $3.75. Isn't it great to live in America when even government working against us the price of natural gas continue to climb and production continues to grow. One thing that low prices have done to drillers is that it has made them all more efficient so that now when the price climbs the companies can make more profit which allows them to lease more acreage.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: flyfisher on April 17, 2013, 04:27:11 AM

How does the NG market look today for further price increase?  Have we stabilized into a new normal range now?   Holding my breath....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 17, 2013, 04:50:21 AM

How does the NG market look today for further price increase?  Have we stabilized into a new normal range now?   Holding my breath....

I just checked but didn't bother to post because things are so quiet.  Price is around $4.21.  There is not much action or movement.  Quiet is boring.  But the price could be worse, that's for sure.    :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: 77flh on April 18, 2013, 08:41:41 AM
11:40am  $4.39!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Walnut on April 18, 2013, 08:46:06 AM
April 18, 2013 (11:40)
Natural Gas 4.41 +0.19 +4.53%

(Same Bloomberg Site.)

Friday  12 April 2013  3:00pm ET


$4.25


Since the beginning of this thread there has been only one source for price information displayed here.  It is consistent and has always been the same:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 18, 2013, 09:10:09 AM
Thursday  18 April 2013  12:08pm ET


$4.38


Thanks, guys.  Amazing stuff!  Never saw it coming.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: flyfisher on April 18, 2013, 10:05:35 AM
Is it time now to stop looking to the past?  Where are we headed now?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 18, 2013, 10:36:05 AM
Is it time now to stop looking to the past?  Where are we headed now?


 :)

Dunno.  If I knew where this price was heading I'd be off making a fortune in the futures market!   ;D

All I know for sure is if the price hits $4.51 I'll have to change the title again!

If this keeps up I'm gonna change to either thirty-three cent, or fifty cent, splits.  Right now the price is blowing through my twenty-five cent splits too often.  :) 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: GOTGAS on April 18, 2013, 11:29:09 AM
wow, Hope it holds up.   this is the only time in my life I ever wanted a price increase.  handclap handclap handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Brushburn on April 18, 2013, 12:26:59 PM
I would like to thank Shinobi for doing this for us. Even through the dark days of the past, this was information we all needed.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on April 18, 2013, 01:02:08 PM
best you stay awake and keep your finger on the trigger obi wan, at 3:59 bloomberg has ng at $4.43. 8 cents (or any fraction over 7 for me  headpat ) to go, and you dont wanna be late twice in a row!

 slaplaugh
   wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on April 18, 2013, 01:56:55 PM
There was a news story today quoting the head of Peabody Coal, Gregory Boyce, claiming that coal at its present price relationship to natural gas will be able to recapture much of the electrical generation business that it lost last year.  There might be some validity to that statement provided that the coal producers keep down the price of their product in order to win back market share.  But  given the fact that Peabody, the world's biggest coal producer, is now losing money in its business, I don't think the coal companies are going to be willing to work at a loss indefinitely.  Also, much of the switch from coal to natural gas was in response to pressure by state and Federal regulators working to enforce the provisions of the Clean Air Act, and those regulations are a lot more likely to become more stringent over time.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 20, 2013, 02:05:01 PM
Gasoline at 3.19 and ng at 3.40. I am confused. What is going on?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on April 20, 2013, 02:22:06 PM
Gasoline at 3.19 and ng at 3.40. I am confused. What is going on?

you think you're confused, how about anyone trying to make sense of what you posted there?

i just paid $3.45 for gas, offroad diesel was $3.15.

and natural gas hasn't been $3.40 for a while now.

in fact the only thing that i am sure of, is that you are indeed confused.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 20, 2013, 04:05:00 PM
Gasoline at 3.19 and ng at 3.40. I am confused. What is going on?

you think you're confused, how about anyone trying to make sense of what you posted there?

i just paid $3.45 for gas, offroad diesel was $3.15.

and natural gas hasn't been $3.40 for a while now.

in fact the only thing that i am sure of, is that you are indeed confused.

wj

$3.19 is the price for gas in NC today, not Charlotte but in the boondocks away from the city. Saw the same price in GA and I think in VA.  The ng was a typo, i meant 4.40.

I expected gasoline and ng prices to trend the same way but there seems to be an inverse relationship lately. Not that i dont like these developments, works for me! Just dont understand it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 21, 2013, 05:34:36 PM
Sunday  21 April 2013  8:31pm ET


$4.36


Far Eastern markets opening.  Price down a bit.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 22, 2013, 10:01:12 AM
Monday  22 April 2013  12:57pm ET


$4.27


Trend is down    :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 24, 2013, 09:03:14 AM
Wednesday  24 April 2013  11:57am ET


$4.17


Friends:  We are losing ground here
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: realman on April 24, 2013, 10:24:06 AM
I think the two big pipelines they suspended is hurting the futures price.The Millenium pipeline 30 inch was supposed to carry I think around 800 million a day to Washington area,starting in Williamsport PA.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 24, 2013, 10:38:15 AM
Gasoline prices are dropping. Dont the fuels tend to trend the same way?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 24, 2013, 01:20:43 PM
The use of Natural Gas as a vehicle fuel is miniscule. Some international contracts have been linked to Oil prices, but we don't play in that area. My impression is that internationally, companies are trying to get contracts which are not linked.
As for today, the oil storage injection was well below the expected quantity. Could be part of West Texas crudes move. Winter is over, so Natural Gas might be at risk for drops. Hopefully there has been more steady demand which has been created for Natural Gas instead of price dependent coal to gas switching. If tomorrows injection report is well below the expected range, then we might see a run up in prices. Production has been close to 65 Bcf/d. No real drop in supply.


Gasoline prices are dropping. Dont the fuels tend to trend the same way?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on April 24, 2013, 03:49:24 PM
The use of Natural Gas as a vehicle fuel is miniscule. Some international contracts have been linked to Oil prices, but we don't play in that area. My impression is that internationally, companies are trying to get contracts which are not linked.
As for today, the oil storage injection was well below the expected quantity. Could be part of West Texas crudes move. Winter is over, so Natural Gas might be at risk for drops. Hopefully there has been more steady demand which has been created for Natural Gas instead of price dependent coal to gas switching. If tomorrows injection report is well below the expected range, then we might see a run up in prices. Production has been close to 65 Bcf/d. No real drop in supply.


Gasoline prices are dropping. Dont the fuels tend to trend the same way?

Gasoline prices are dropping because demand has dried up for gasoline because the recession is far worse than the mainstreammedia is letting on.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 24, 2013, 03:56:37 PM
This is from an EIA report from last October. I wonder if with the increasing shale oil production we will go back to more of a correlation.
 
"Prior to 2006, the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price was the only commodity price to show a consistently strong correlation with WTI crude oil prices.  However, since the second quarter of 2009, U.S. natural gas prices have not shown significant correlation with crude oil prices, or any other commodity prices.  This is another example of a market where price movements are being strongly influenced by factors unique to one commodity (Figure 7).  With the increased production of natural gas from tight formations, price movements have been caused by both supply side developments and weather, which tends to be random and have less of an impact on other commodities.  Additionally, unlike the other commodities listed, natural gas is subject to more regional pricing as shipping natural gas across oceans is much more expensive than shipping other commodities and liquid spot markets are not prevalent.  Since the front month futures price for U.S. natural gas is for delivery of the commodity to Henry Hub in Louisiana, it tends not to be affected by increased economic growth in emerging market economies. "
 
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: realman on April 25, 2013, 04:46:04 AM
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=23&t=10  Natural gas could take a big bite out of that pie.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 25, 2013, 05:50:05 AM
This is from an EIA report from last October. I wonder if with the increasing shale oil production we will go back to more of a correlation.
 
"Prior to 2006, the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price was the only commodity price to show a consistently strong correlation with WTI crude oil prices.  However, since the second quarter of 2009, U.S. natural gas prices have not shown significant correlation with crude oil prices, or any other commodity prices.  This is another example of a market where price movements are being strongly influenced by factors unique to one commodity (Figure 7).  With the increased production of natural gas from tight formations, price movements have been caused by both supply side developments and weather, which tends to be random and have less of an impact on other commodities.  Additionally, unlike the other commodities listed, natural gas is subject to more regional pricing as shipping natural gas across oceans is much more expensive than shipping other commodities and liquid spot markets are not prevalent.  Since the front month futures price for U.S. natural gas is for delivery of the commodity to Henry Hub in Louisiana, it tends not to be affected by increased economic growth in emerging market economies. "
 
 


Thanks, that is what i was wondering about although now ng has turned around and followed gasoline downward.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 25, 2013, 07:05:56 AM
The CEO of Gulf Oil is projecting that gasoline will go below $3 by around September.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 25, 2013, 07:07:08 AM
The CEO of Gulf Oil is projecting that gasoline will go below $3 by around September.


Easy come, easy go.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on April 25, 2013, 09:00:54 AM
In my opinion, increased demand for natural gas has been "flying under the radar" ... not many articles, except for a hint here & there.

And that increased demand has caused the price to rise.   It's just not making the newspapers.

Plus, you're got the anti's who bang their schizophrenic drums ... that's about the best they can do ... to get attention.


If you're interested, do a Google search for  "  Forbes who gets the natural gas helman "

Author Helman has done some really interesting articles; worth getting a print subscription.

Anyway, here is one paragraph from his latest article:



The glut was also great news for industrial companies, since natural gas is a key ingredient in all kinds of modern practices. For chemical firms like Dow and Huntsman, it serves as a feedstock for making ammonia, methanol, hydrogen and plastics. Dow announced a year ago it would spend $4 billion expanding in Texas. Shell Chemical announced a $3 billion plant in Pennsylvania to process ethane extracted from the gas. The American Chemistry Council added up $16 billion in chemical investments that would create some 17,000 new jobs and boost chemical output by $33 billion. Power utilities, steel manufacturers and other heavy manufacturers took advantage, too.



So, there is a LOT of good stuff going on, but it's just not making the television news.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Berkeley on April 25, 2013, 11:02:08 AM
The price tells everything.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 26, 2013, 12:35:33 AM
Friday  26 April 2013  3:33am  ET

$4.14

Down a bit more
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: old hunter on April 27, 2013, 10:57:03 PM
Gas prices are like incest they are relative.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 29, 2013, 06:59:22 AM
Monday  29 April 2013  9:58am  ET

$4.30

Moving in the right direction.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on April 29, 2013, 07:19:44 AM
mine says $4.307

even better...  headpat

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on April 29, 2013, 08:14:50 AM
Monday  29 April 2013  11:13am  ET

$4.37

Whoa baby!!   ;D   handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: firecutter874 on April 29, 2013, 01:09:06 PM
Yo WJ, I like Shinobi's even better,  slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh.
Ya gotta get his picture OFF your posts WJ, my acid reflux is acting up.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on April 29, 2013, 03:05:28 PM
just for you firecutter...

$4.378

at 4:29:01 est

heck of a day. a wise friend told me a couple of days ago that he figured the markets were taking a breather before resuming their march upward. i didnt believe him.

here's hoping he was right, and the march continues into the cooling season.
wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: firecutter874 on April 29, 2013, 05:52:18 PM
Thanks WJ, maybe by the time I start to receive Royalties the price will be over $4.50 to make up for the deductions, and we can celebrate at MA when it goes over $5. weather getting better hopefully we'll get together. 8) 8) 8) 8)

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on April 29, 2013, 06:57:27 PM

  Are royalty figures matching up with these prices ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 02, 2013, 07:52:16 AM
Thursday  02 May 2013  10:50am  ET

$4.12

Falling like a stone!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on May 02, 2013, 07:54:55 AM
Storage figures today well above estimates, moderate weather in the forecasts.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: GOTGAS on May 02, 2013, 11:18:33 AM
we need a parachute were going down so fast! :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 02, 2013, 02:05:42 PM
Thursday  02 May 2013  5:02pm  ET

$4.05

Kick in the head.

Have we seen the high water mark for 2013?   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 03, 2013, 12:56:46 AM
Friday  03 May 2013  4:03am  ET

$3.99

 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: bellbucci on May 05, 2013, 10:19:53 AM
Here's a nice article on future NG demand. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/04/where-will-future-natural-gas-demand-come-from.aspx
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 06, 2013, 03:02:47 PM
Monday  06 May 2013  5:59pm  ET

$4.01

As has been the case for the last several days, we are hanging onto $4.00 by our fingernails.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: flyfisher on May 06, 2013, 03:13:58 PM

Maybe it`s a good sign that it`s not moving lower then $4... :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 07, 2013, 01:25:50 PM
Tuesday 07 May 2013  4:23pm  ET

$3.94
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 07, 2013, 08:53:08 PM
Tuesday 07 May 2013  11:51pm  ET

$3.90
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 08, 2013, 02:37:52 PM
Wednesday  08 May 2013  5:35pm  ET

$3.97
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 10, 2013, 07:26:10 AM
Friday  10 May 2013  10:23am  ET

$4.00

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 12, 2013, 08:10:29 PM
Sunday  12 May 2013  11:06pm  ET

$3.89

Trading has commenced for the sake of Far Eastern markets, which are now open.  Price is down.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: 77flh on May 15, 2013, 06:01:36 PM
4.08 handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: macal on May 15, 2013, 06:42:16 PM

 Anyone getting anything close to $4 on their royalties?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: moldyoak on May 15, 2013, 06:46:21 PM
The royalties here in NE PA are generally on a 2-4 month lag, so I suppose we'll find out in 2-4 months.  Typically royalties from CHK/Stat/Mit/Ana here in Bradford Co. have been a bit below the monthly averages and the pricing Shinobi has been tracking, but not too bad.  I'm sure not complaining.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: macal on May 15, 2013, 09:42:11 PM

  Good. $4 to $4.50 is a good price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 16, 2013, 04:56:39 AM
Thursday  16 May 2013  7:51am  ET

$4.06

I don't know what is supporting the price up this high.  The weather in these last several days has run, perhaps, a little bit cooler than anticipated.  Maybe that's it.

I thought we would be down into the $3.80's and $3.70's by now.  Goes to show how much I know.  :)
Title: Q
Post by: moldyoak on May 16, 2013, 05:55:58 AM
I think it's bouncing around in a psychotic manner, somewhat non-sensically if you ask me.  Which nobody did.   crazy

Nevertheless, I sure like to see it bouncing upward rather than down!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Steve-O on May 16, 2013, 06:29:29 AM
Happy you're wrong at times!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on May 16, 2013, 10:08:42 AM
Thursday  16 May 2013  7:51am  ET

$4.06

I don't know what is supporting the price up this high.  The weather in these last several days has run, perhaps, a little bit cooler than anticipated.  Maybe that's it.

I thought we would be down into the $3.80's and $3.70's by now.  Goes to show how much I know.  :)

ask and ye shall receive!

 05/16/2013 12:25:01 PM $3.934 -0.136 and headed down...

anything else you'd like to add now that you got things moving?  headpat

wj

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: SONY on May 16, 2013, 11:18:34 AM
Only LNG exports will get us out of this funk....Obummo's call now!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on May 16, 2013, 02:10:32 PM
Only LNG exports will get us out of this funk....Obummo's call now!

well.........can you say keystone pipeline? off shore drilling permits? new Alaska drilling permits?

I think anyone with an ounce of common sense knows what the next few years will bring.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 17, 2013, 05:45:26 AM
Friday  17 May 2013  8:43am  ET

$3.97
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: 77flh on May 17, 2013, 01:52:08 PM
May 17, 2013 4:50pm

$4.06
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 19, 2013, 06:00:21 PM
Sunday  19 May 2013  8:56pm  ET

$4.11

Markets have opened to accommodate Far Eastern trading.  Price is up a bit, regardless what you might be seeing elsewhere.  The above is, as always, a "live" price. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: 77flh on May 20, 2013, 03:51:00 PM
The price going up coincides with the announcement of ConocoPhillips getting the second US permit to export natural gas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 20, 2013, 08:28:11 PM
Interesting.  At this hour price is absolutely unchanged from my last post, over 24 hours ago.  Price is $4.11.

That's a really nice price to be holding, all things considered.   :)

 handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on May 21, 2013, 01:03:46 PM
nice rally today!

up 10.1 cents to $4.191.

I was hoping it would crack $4.25...maybe tomorrow if obi wan don't jinx it again.  headpat

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: firecutter874 on May 21, 2013, 03:13:48 PM
Thanks WJ, price seems to be holding, hopefully by the time the units we are in start shipping NG the price will even be up a bit to overcome the deductions.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25 (quietly)
Post by: aubrey on May 23, 2013, 02:23:14 PM
another nice little gain in the price of natural gas today.

up $0.068 on the nymex, to $4.254 ($4.26 on Bloomberg because they round their numbers to the next penny.)

sleeping again obi wan?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 24, 2013, 12:18:37 AM
Friday  24 May 2013  3:14am  ET

$4.29

 handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 24, 2013, 09:37:15 AM
Friday  24 May 2013  12:32pm  ET

$4.23

Down a bit.  But this cold weather definitely has a silver lining.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on May 24, 2013, 10:38:26 AM
"Down a bit.  But this cold weather definitely has a silver lining."

actually i think you will find that the colder weather the last couple of days has hampered prices a bit. ya see, this is not the heating season, but it could be the cooling season, which would use more nat gas to generate electricity to run air conditioners, which it did, until the recent cool weather arrived.

who's gonna run an air conditioner at these temps?

here's hoping for a blistering hot summer followed by a frigid winter. (owning minerals will change your perspective on some things)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 25, 2013, 05:12:38 AM
Contrary to prices you might be seeing elsewhere:

Saturday  25 May 2013  8:08am  ET

$4.24

This cold weather continues to work its magic!!   handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on May 25, 2013, 05:46:16 AM

  Has anyone seen a royalty check with a $4.00 or above selling price yet. Im glad to see the price up around its historic norm.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on May 25, 2013, 12:51:03 PM


     Guess not .
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on May 25, 2013, 04:55:12 PM
Yes. Some have hit greater than 4 in swpa for btus around 1070 .
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on May 25, 2013, 06:05:25 PM
December price for us was 4.397 for 1151 btu gas. Other months have been below 4. Will see about March in a few days.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Jayski on May 26, 2013, 06:22:10 PM
Wow....hoping for the price of natural gas to go up.

Pretty much tells the whole story

Brutal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on May 26, 2013, 06:25:23 PM

 I think we are lucky its where it at. It was half that not long ago.

  Power plants and transportation .
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: moldyoak on May 26, 2013, 06:48:09 PM
What does "Brital" mean?

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 27, 2013, 07:59:34 AM
Monday  27 May 2013  10:59am  ET

$4.30
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: moldyoak on May 27, 2013, 09:48:06 AM
Yes I was fairly certain you were indicating the word, "Brutal."  I also assume that it is intended to be some form of sarcastic commentary on the desire by many here to see end-use pricing of NG increase, thus increasing the amount of royalty income many here will realize subsequent to such price increase.

Capitalism pure and simple, Comrade.  If you find this distasteful or somehow a hindrance to world harmony, butterflies and unicorns, I suspect there are also a great many other concepts about which you and I would disagree.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on May 27, 2013, 01:40:25 PM
Contrary to prices you might be seeing elsewhere:

Saturday  25 May 2013  8:08am  ET

$4.24

This cold weather continues to work its magic!!   handclap

http://www.bentekenergy.com/

" US ...demand was lower for the week, though power burn jumped for a second straight week, up 3.1 Bcf/d, even after burn declined today across nearly all regions heading into the Memorial Day weekend. Cooler weather in the Northeast and Southeast brought day-over-day burn levels down 1.4 Bcf/d and 1.3 Bcf/d, respectively, in those regions. In New York, temperatures fell 13 degrees below normal with corresponding power demand falling by 180 MMcf/d. Temperatures in Atlanta dropped from 4 degrees above normal to 5 degrees below normal with Georgia’s power demand declining by 280 MMcf/d. Bentek’s forecast calls for even lower power burn over the holiday weekend before ramping back up to more than 20 Bcf/d on Tuesday."

 headpat   slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 27, 2013, 02:36:48 PM
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/natural-gas-futures-bounce-off-5-week-low-with-cold-weather-in-focus-247730 (http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/natural-gas-futures-bounce-off-5-week-low-with-cold-weather-in-focus-247730)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 27, 2013, 02:42:55 PM
Monday  27 May 2013  5:39am  ET

$4.29

We are about at the limit of the help this cold spell has brought us on price.  Forecast for later this week:  heat wave!!

 :P

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on May 27, 2013, 04:29:48 PM
Monday  27 May 2013  5:39am  ET

$4.29

We are about at the limit of the help this cold spell has brought us on price.  Forecast for later this week:  heat wave!!

 :P

"U.S. burn has slipped 16%, or 3.7 Bcf today due to a loss of cooling demand that had started to develop in the Northeast and Southeast.(See regional ...pages for  weather and demand changes). Both regional losses are spread across multiple states. Northeast burn could be revised up if expected temperatures average warmer than expected."

obi wan...i'm starting to think that you would throw a drowning man a cinder block thinking that it might "help" him.  slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Jayski on May 27, 2013, 04:49:06 PM
Yes I was fairly certain you were indicating the word, "Brutal."  I also assume that it is intended to be some form of sarcastic commentary on the desire by many here to see end-use pricing of NG increase, thus increasing the amount of royalty income many here will realize subsequent to such price increase.

Capitalism pure and simple, Comrade.  If you find this distasteful or somehow a hindrance to world harmony, butterflies and unicorns, I suspect there are also a great many other concepts about which you and I would disagree.


Good answer man....very refreshing

I guess I do find it a bit distasteful.Also a "hindrance" in a few round-about ways but I really respect your answer.

I get it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on May 28, 2013, 04:16:16 AM
Monday  27 May 2013  5:39am  ET

$4.29

We are about at the limit of the help this cold spell has brought us on price.  Forecast for later this week:  heat wave!!

 :P

"U.S. burn has slipped 16%, or 3.7 Bcf today due to a loss of cooling demand that had started to develop in the Northeast and Southeast.(See regional ...pages for  weather and demand changes). Both regional losses are spread across multiple states. Northeast burn could be revised up if expected temperatures average warmer than expected."

obi wan...i'm starting to think that you would throw a drowning man a cinder block thinking that it might "help" him.  slaplaugh

wj

Not using natural gas for home heating!

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 28, 2013, 09:40:17 AM
Tuesday  28 May 2013  12:34pm  ET

$4.19
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 30, 2013, 07:00:31 AM
Thursday  30 May 2013  9:58am  ET

$4.14

Down a bit more
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on May 30, 2013, 04:08:05 PM
Thursday  30 May 2013  7:04pm  ET

$4.02

From this thread:  Price on Monday was $4.29!

http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,16931.msg252784.html#msg252784 (http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,16931.msg252784.html#msg252784)

We are down in excess of 6%.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: eupany on May 31, 2013, 08:54:06 AM
we are rising close to 5 year averages in storage
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on May 31, 2013, 11:29:42 AM
Friday  31 May 2013  2:26pm  ET

$3.99

Where IS that AC load when you need it!!!   ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on June 03, 2013, 10:19:12 AM
Monday  03 June 2013  1:18pm  ET

$4.00
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on June 05, 2013, 11:27:04 AM
Wednesday  05 June 2013  2:22pm  ET

$4.00

Price hanging quite close to $4.00 over the last several days;  not much movement.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: 77flh on June 06, 2013, 04:33:36 PM
Movement.  $3.83
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on June 06, 2013, 04:58:41 PM
it's the cold weather working its' magic again.

 slaplaugh
   wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on June 07, 2013, 01:53:54 AM
Friday  07 June 2013  4:52am  ET

$3.82
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: flyfisher on June 09, 2013, 05:56:05 PM

Are we approaching any conditions to cause an increase in NG pricing?   If so, when? 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: Berkeley on June 09, 2013, 06:46:44 PM
If anyone could call the markets like that, they would be trading commodities from their home on the riviera not hanging out with us here  ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on June 11, 2013, 07:04:23 AM

Tuesday  11 June 2013  10:03am  ET

$3.76

Trend is down
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on June 11, 2013, 11:22:23 AM
Tuesday  11 June 2013  2:20pm  ET

$3.73

Trend is down
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on June 13, 2013, 08:14:13 AM
Normal injection of NG announced today. Propane storage rocketed up, though.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 14, 2013, 03:07:11 PM
I doubt if I will see these prices again for a long time, maybe fall/winter. We hit $4.52 for our April sales of 1073 Btu gas, in Dry Washington County country


  Has anyone seen a royalty check with a $4.00 or above selling price yet. Im glad to see the price up around its historic norm.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on June 14, 2013, 03:42:22 PM

 That is a good number for everyone involved in cluding the end users.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on June 14, 2013, 04:04:07 PM
I doubt if I will see these prices again for a long time, maybe fall/winter. We hit $4.52 for our April sales of 1073 Btu gas, in Dry Washington County country


  Has anyone seen a royalty check with a $4.00 or above selling price yet. Im glad to see the price up around its historic norm.

I think you're gonna see those prices or better for the next 2 months.

may was a good dry gas month and so far june is better than april too.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 14, 2013, 04:32:37 PM
Wj, that is by far the best post you have ever made!!!

I doubt if I will see these prices again for a long time, maybe fall/winter. We hit $4.52 for our April sales of 1073 Btu gas, in Dry Washington County country


  Has anyone seen a royalty check with a $4.00 or above selling price yet. Im glad to see the price up around its historic norm.

I think you're gonna see those prices or better for the next 2 months.

may was a good dry gas month and so far june is better than april too.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 14, 2013, 06:54:32 PM
Interesting aside, is the playing out of the Btu issues on some of the pipelines. Need outlets for all the Ethane, or ship more dry to bring the content down. Could get worse, before getting better when more markets open up for the wet stuff.

"Texas Eastern has asked shippers to schedule an additional 200 MMcf/d of gas with C2+ levels of less than 12% at the Clarington, OH, interconnect with REX pipeline by June 18. As of June 12, REX pipeline deliveries to TETCO at Clarington were down 95 MMcf/d from the 30-day average. Gas quality measurements at the Holbrook compressor station on TETCO in Pennsylvania indicated gas quality of 1,128 Btu on June 12 with more than 14.5%  of the gas composed of C2+. TETCO has a BTU waiver in place allowing deliveries west of Uniontown to reach 1,200 Btu, however, downstream measurements at Lambertville were 1,079 Btu, near the pipeline’s max tariff spec of 1,110 Btu. Additional increases in wet gas production in the region from the Marcellus and Utica combined with reduced lean gas deliveries from REX could impact producers’ ability to blend ethane-rich gas until the start of Mariner West and ATEX pipeline."

This came across Bentek's news feed. http://www.bentekenergy.com/ (http://www.bentekenergy.com/)
 
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on June 18, 2013, 11:11:54 AM
Tuesday  18 June 2013  2:11pm  ET

$3.88

Better
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on June 24, 2013, 11:36:34 AM
Monday 24 June 2013  2:31pm  ET

$3.75

We are finally out of "shoulder season" and mother nature is providing us some cooling degree days.  No real help seems to me.  Maybe our gas is too expensive for 'em and they are staying with coal to power those air conditioners?  Oh, well.   :(

Hey, maybe we should run a sale!!!!     slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on June 26, 2013, 06:54:00 AM
Wednesday  26 June 2013  9:53am  ET

$3.66

down
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on June 27, 2013, 12:44:46 PM

What`s going on with NG prices?   Will we see a spike upward soon or have to wait until cold weather agan?   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on June 27, 2013, 01:48:36 PM
Thursday  27 June 2013  4:46pm  ET

$3.59



What`s going on with NG prices?   Will we see a spike upward soon or have to wait until cold weather agan?

We need cooling degree days.  It's not happening yet.  Heck, this is almost as bad as shoulder season.  The weather is not excessively hot.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on July 02, 2013, 02:48:04 PM

Are we seeing a little surge in NG prices? :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 02, 2013, 03:03:57 PM
Tuesday  02 July 2013  6:02pm  ET

$3.65



Are we seeing a little surge in NG prices? :)

It's quite small.  Better up than down, though, I guess.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on July 03, 2013, 12:49:23 PM

What`s a realistic expectation for future gas prices based upon increased demand?  In other words, will increased demand just consume the already abundant supply of NG, and how long will it take to stimulate more production or supply?   Will we see & experience the same excitement and rush as we did several years ago, or will it now be steady as you go forward?  Will the gas companies be more focused on known reserves or sweet spots compared to when they were more in an exploratory mode of operation?   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on July 03, 2013, 06:28:59 PM

What`s a realistic expectation for future gas prices based upon increased demand?  In other words, will increased demand just consume the already abundant supply of NG, and how long will it take to stimulate more production or supply?   Will we see & experience the same excitement and rush as we did several years ago, or will it now be steady as you go forward?  Will the gas companies be more focused on known reserves or sweet spots compared to when they were more in an exploratory mode of operation?


Absolutely no one has any idea.


What incentives are there for people to invent new uses for natural gas?

Our tax code is 65,000 pages.  You can invent something and lose your shirt because of the complexities of the tax code alone.   There are tens of thousands of other rules and regulations that will bite you in the rear end.

You can make all sorts of things out of plastics ... and there are radically new kinds of plastics ... but converting natural gas to plastic and then building a factory to extrude or otherwise produce the plastic parts for assembly ... is extremely expensive.    All that tool and die work.

On the other hand, suppose someone comes up with a cheap and fast 3-D printer that uses plastic as an "ink" and you can "replicate" almost anything cheaply.   

Why is it  so expensive in the United States to convert a regular car or truck to burn CNG?   The answer is that the EPA fines you something like $5000 per day unless you use THEIR certification process for the conversion kit.    But you can visit YouTube and see all kinds of conversions carried out by teenagers and by people in Pakistan ... not difficult for DIY ... except our government won't allow it.

Why does our government not allow us to burn methanol in cars?   They do that in other countries and you can read up on it by looking up "Energy Victory" by Robert Zubrin and    "Turning Oil Into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice"[Paperback] Anne Korin, Gal Luft  ... And "Power Hungry" by Robert Bryce.

Why does our government push the use of wind and solar power at the expense of other energy sources that are 1/4th the cost or less?

The Europeans are WAAYYY ahead of us in the use of LNG.  Why is that?


Basically, we are over-regulated for no good reason.

Congress decides one thing and the EPA decides the opposite.  Who does the EPA report to?


I have been urging people to read a lot, get familiar with the stuff that is going on in other countries to learn where they are making progress or not ... Egypt is in chaos; Libya right next door to Egypt was in chaos a month ago.   Libya is a major producer of LNG.   Japan right now is a major importer of LNG, but they are going bankrupt trying to pay for it.  What happens when Japan restarts their nuclear reactors?

Most of the information is free ... on the internet.  Or at minimal cost by buying books and reading them ... or talk to your local librarian who will get the books for you.

Join NARO.   Attend the NARO seminars to learn about what is going on out there.


If you want a dollar figure after considering all those other factors? ... lots of luck.

Natural gas is now $4.   Is $8 too high?  Will people pay $8 at the well head ... and then pay much much more to pipe it to NYC or overseas via LNG tankers?

We built a bunch of port facilities to allow us to import LNG.    Some folks want to modify those to EXPORT the liquified natural gas, but conversion will cost $5 billion each.   

There is a study that to convert all coal-burning electric plants to natural gas would cost one trillion dollars.

We may not be able to actually come up with that much natural gas.

How do you decide what to do?


No body knows.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on July 04, 2013, 03:45:00 AM

What`s a realistic expectation for future gas prices based upon increased demand?  In other words, will increased demand just consume the already abundant supply of NG, and how long will it take to stimulate more production or supply?   Will we see & experience the same excitement and rush as we did several years ago, or will it now be steady as you go forward?  Will the gas companies be more focused on known reserves or sweet spots compared to when they were more in an exploratory mode of operation?


Absolutely no one has any idea.


What incentives are there for people to invent new uses for natural gas?

Our tax code is 65,000 pages.  You can invent something and lose your shirt because of the complexities of the tax code alone.   There are tens of thousands of other rules and regulations that will bite you in the rear end.

You can make all sorts of things out of plastics ... and there are radically new kinds of plastics ... but converting natural gas to plastic and then building a factory to extrude or otherwise produce the plastic parts for assembly ... is extremely expensive.    All that piping and chemical processing to make new molecules ... and then all that tool and die work for the extrusions.

On the other hand, suppose someone comes up with a cheap and fast 3-D printer that uses plastic as an "ink" and you can "replicate" almost anything cheaply.   

Why is it  so expensive in the United States to convert a regular car or truck to burn CNG?   The answer is that the EPA fines you something like $5000 per day unless you use THEIR certification process for the conversion kit.    But you can visit YouTube and see all kinds of conversions carried out by teenagers and by people in Pakistan ... not difficult for DIY ... except our government won't allow it.

Why does our government not allow us to burn methanol in cars?   They do that in other countries and you can read up on it by looking up "Energy Victory" by Robert Zubrin and    "Turning Oil Into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice"[Paperback] Anne Korin, Gal Luft  ... And "Power Hungry" by Robert Bryce.

Why does our government push the use of wind and solar power at the expense of other energy sources that are 1/4th the cost or less?

The Europeans are WAAYYY ahead of us in the use of LNG.  Why is that?


Basically, we are over-regulated for no good reason.

Congress decides one thing and the EPA decides the opposite.  Who does the EPA report to?


I have been urging people to read a lot, get familiar with the stuff that is going on in other countries to learn where they are making progress or not ... Egypt is in chaos; Libya right next door to Egypt was in chaos a month ago.   Libya is a major producer of LNG.   Japan right now is a major importer of LNG, but they are going bankrupt trying to pay for it.  What happens when Japan restarts their nuclear reactors?

Most of the information is free ... on the internet.  Or at minimal cost by buying books and reading them ... or talk to your local librarian who will get the books for you.

Join NARO.   Attend the NARO seminars to learn about what is going on out there.


If you want a dollar figure after considering all those other factors? ... lots of luck.

Natural gas is now $4.   Is $8 too high?  Will people pay $8 at the well head ... and then pay much much more to pipe it to NYC or overseas via LNG tankers?

We built a bunch of port facilities to allow us to import LNG.    Some folks want to modify those to EXPORT the liquified natural gas, but conversion will cost $5 billion each.   Well, $5 billion for each "train" ... one export facility might have several "trains". 

There is a study that to convert all coal-burning electric plants to natural gas would cost one trillion dollars.

We may not be able to actually come up with that much natural gas.

How do you decide what to do?


No body knows.


You can force up the price of oil ... it sells on an auction market just like on eBay or your local Saturday auction house ...

... and the way you can force up the price of oil [and also natural gas on the international market ... LNG tankering ... is by closing the Suez Canal ... or by threatening to close the Suez Canal ...

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/03/knives_come_out_for_us_ambassador_to_egypt_anne_patterson     

... and read the comments.

Instability or the threat of instability is enough to drive up the price of oil and LNG.

People will bid up the price of cargoes that are not trapped by shut down waterways.

There are about seven "choke-points" where it is easy to stop maritime commerce.   The Suez Canal is one of them.

But will that increase the price of U.S. natural gas? 

Maybe not.

Because the U.S. does not now export natural gas.  Except for a teeny amount to Canada and Mexico by pipeline.   Because there are no LNG export facilities anywhere in North America [except for a tiny facility right outside Anchorage, Alaska, which has been there for 40 years.  But local natural gas supplies are crippled because the local bureaucrats cannot make up their minds about what the export price should be ... and while there is plenty of natural gas up there ... the uncertainty of the pricing has everybody waiting ... the available supplies are being sent to the city of Anchorage for local use.  One Australian company is drilling for new supplies of natural gas. Seriously.   Right outside Anchorage, across the street from WalMart.  No joke.]

Anyway, the state of North Dakota has LOTS of shale oil and is the U.S.'s second largest oil supplier right now.    Right after Texas.   Alaska used to be #2, but their supplies are being choked off by the Feds and North Dakota is drilling as fast as humanly possible.    North Dakota crude oil is being transported out by rail road cars ... unit trains ... to refineries all around the country.   

So, we may maybe not be as dramatically affected as other countries by instability in the Middle East.

Alaska has LOTS of oil, but the Feds won't let it be developed [and/or are giving the drillers a hard time] so there may not be enough oil to keep the TAPS ... trans-Alaska pipeline ... filled.  If the oil pipeline shuts down, then by law/contract, it has to be demolished and removed.

Lots of strange things going on out there.

It may not be comfortable, but it is important to keep up.

Start with www.LNGWorldNews.com  and go from there.   Excellent sources.    And also Pipeline and Gas Journal [which is free to people in the industry ... and you are in the industry]

www.pgjonline.com

And it's not being reported by television news.


Who cares about any of this?

Well, if you need to make a decision to increase natural gas production or to build a factory, you need to have some idea of future natural gas pricing.

And it's so unstable, that ... decisions become extremely difficult.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on July 04, 2013, 04:51:23 AM
The French got so fed up with being dependent upon unstable countries for their oil supply, that they went nuclear ... they built so many nuclear power reactors [using American reactor designs, by the way] that now they generate 80% of their electricity from nuclear ... versus 20% in the USA.

[interesting summary:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/France/#.UdXPwz7F05g

Some people say they admire the French and we should be more like them ... but not, I guess, when it comes to how they generate their electricity.


It turns out that nuclear power provides the cheapest electricity by far.

And if you have a science education, you can actually get them running right.

Not too many nuclear reactor "crises" in France ... probably because their education system teaches people how that nuclear stuff works.

In any event, nuclear power provides a very nice base-load of electrical generating capacity.

You can use natural gas powered GE LM2500's for fluctuating loads ... the GE  LM2500 is an airliner jet engine driving a generator ... fits on a truck ... and can easily take care of peak loads.


The rest of the natural gas should be used for making plastics.   

You could make sure they teach chemistry at the North East Bradford High School, so that every student understands how natural gas can be converted to plastics ... and fertilizers ... and lots of other chemicals ... and be used to make pretty much anything you need.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 04, 2013, 01:34:24 PM
Monday  08 July 2013   8:44pm  ET


$3.73
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 12, 2013, 07:29:33 AM
Friday  12 July 2013   10:29am  ET


$3.68
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on July 14, 2013, 09:25:06 AM

Have we stabilized NG prices in the $3.60`s for awhile?   Is it indicative of  a stabilized market for the near future?   Hot weather (AC) doesn`t seem to move the pricing higher...what do we need to advance NG pricing now?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 14, 2013, 11:44:33 AM

Have we stabilized NG prices in the $3.60`s for awhile?   Is it indicative of  a stabilized market for the near future?   Hot weather (AC) doesn`t seem to move the pricing higher...what do we need to advance NG pricing now?

I think if terrorists were to blow up several coal-fired power plants, that might do the trick.  Short of such a thing, it looks like we're stuck.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on July 14, 2013, 06:02:59 PM
never underestimate the hurricane season. as soon as a cat 4 rolls into the gulf we'll be up again.

pretty sure I read that a whole bunch of nuke watts are back online after maintenance in the past 2 or 3 weeks. that probably has quelled the need for massive additional ng fired electricity.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on July 14, 2013, 06:14:26 PM
Thanks wj for changing the picture to President Ron, now I could read your posts without having to look for my Anti Acid Pills.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on July 15, 2013, 08:58:33 AM
I doubt that any hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico would have the same impact upon natural gas prices as they used to have in the past.  So much production has shifted from the hurricane vulnerable platforms of the Gulf to the inland shale wells that would have little or no effect from a storm that very large price spikes, especially for more than a few days at a time, are probably a thing of the past.  And as the shale wells have come online the Gulf wells have been gradually shutting down because they need a much better price to just break even, much less turn a profit.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 15, 2013, 09:48:34 AM
Probably right, but there seamed to be some effect last year. Might partly depend on what on shore damage occurs.

I doubt that any hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico would have the same impact upon natural gas prices as they used to have in the past.  So much production has shifted from the hurricane vulnerable platforms of the Gulf to the inland shale wells that would have little or no effect from a storm that very large price spikes, especially for more than a few days at a time, are probably a thing of the past.  And as the shale wells have come online the Gulf wells have been gradually shutting down because they need a much better price to just break even, much less turn a profit.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on July 15, 2013, 02:55:36 PM
Probably right, but there seamed to be some effect last year. Might partly depend on what on shore damage occurs.

I doubt that any hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico would have the same impact upon natural gas prices as they used to have in the past.  So much production has shifted from the hurricane vulnerable platforms of the Gulf to the inland shale wells that would have little or no effect from a storm that very large price spikes, especially for more than a few days at a time, are probably a thing of the past.  And as the shale wells have come online the Gulf wells have been gradually shutting down because they need a much better price to just break even, much less turn a profit.
>>>> I would prefer to not test my theory, and have a hurricane season on the mild side, but who is to say what we will have over the next few months.  If you reference the figures compiled by the Energy Information Administration, it's quite apparent that while Gulf of Mexico production has dropped rather precipitously the last few years, taking up the slack was the gas gotten from the various shale deposits.  If anyone refers to a recent quarterly report of Range Resources where a chart is shown of break even points of a bunch of larger gas producing companies, it is readily seen that most of the high cost producers are heavily involved in Gulf of Mexico operations.  In a time of 3 to 4 dollar price levels it just doesn't pay to drill extremely expensive wells into the Gulf when there is so much low cost gas to be found on dry land.  And I would expect that when those high cost money losing wells have a serious breakdown  the common response is to put them into mothballs for a while rather than to try to bring them back into production.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 18, 2013, 10:21:31 AM
Thursday 18 July 2013   1:20pm  ET


$3.82

Hot weather appears finally to be helping.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Walnut on July 18, 2013, 10:25:05 AM
Encouraging words from Bill Powers on Seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1549032-exploding-the-natural-gas-supply-myth-an-interview-with-bill-powers?source=google_news

He is trying to be pessimistic in saying that the Natural Gas boom is about to go bust.  As noted above, it is probably over optimistic as far as producers and landowners are concerned.  Here is a quote from the article.  handclap

"Bill Powers: There was a white paper written by a research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas several years ago that discusses the connection between oil and gas prices. Historically, it's been a ten to one relationship, even though on an energy equivalent basis, it's six to one. What we see over the short term, like a lot of relationships it can trade anywhere and can be stretched to extremes. However, over time, what this paper said is exactly what's happening right now. Producers will drill oil projects and stop drilling gas wells. Eventually, gas will move back towards its 10 to 1 relationship, which puts the price at $10. Additionally, one of the things that never is talked about is that Canadian exports to the United States will fall dramatically in the next five years. Canada is at record demand because of increased demand for natural gas from fertilizer and oil sands companies. Production has fallen for over ten years and it shows no signs of stopping. Given Canada's current production trajectory and the fact that there is large export capacity in British Columbia, we are going to see a very large impact on prices." 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on July 18, 2013, 11:46:36 AM
That seekingalpha article has some pretty cutting comments if you scroll to the end. I'd side more with the commentators.

Here's a rebuttal. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1553382-near-term-and-intermediate-term-outlook-for-u-s-natural-gas-prices?v=1374088684&source=tracking_notify
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 18, 2013, 02:38:35 PM
He does not mention who the research analyst was for the Dallas Fed. Could be good reason to hold that name back if it was the lady who got herself appointed to the "Small Business and Agricultural Advisory Council of the Federal Reserve Bank’s Eleventh District in Dallas" You could search for information, but I will not put the name, as the blogger did not mention a source.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on July 20, 2013, 04:46:54 AM
Saturday 20 July 2013   7:44am  ET


$3.79
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on July 22, 2013, 05:50:27 AM
 US oil (WTI) now trades above world oil (BRENT). OPEC says it wants to cut production.
Just as (2015) the new Natural Gas filling stations start to get into full swing along some Interstates. Keep natural Gas below $7 MMBTU and WTI > $100 for a couple of years and BINGO. All them bean counters will say Natural Gas fleets have a short enough pay back time for conversion.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on July 22, 2013, 06:39:59 AM

  Many citys are converting their bus fleets and other big vehicles to natural gas.
That is a great start. Hopefully the private sector gets going on semis. Honda Civics dont really put a dent in demand.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on July 23, 2013, 04:46:14 AM
Quote
Honda Civics dont really put a dent in demand.

Like to see them put that in Accord and Pilot line, as an option. Civics are too small.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on July 27, 2013, 03:45:01 AM

NG price going in the wrong direction :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on July 28, 2013, 04:39:46 PM
Sunday 28 July 2013   7:36pm  ET


$3.48
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on July 29, 2013, 07:39:53 AM
Price going in the wrong direction :( :( :(
Could this be the reason that the word (rumor) in the area is that EOG is closing down 37 wells that are producing in Bradford County?????

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on July 29, 2013, 07:52:18 AM
Monday 29 July 2013   10:49am  ET


$3.43

Friends, we are venturing into a world of hurt here.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: mohawk70 on July 29, 2013, 09:32:40 AM
Monday 29 July 2013   10:49am  ET


$3.43

Friends, we are venturing into a world of hurt here.


Maybe just a brief blip ...

We DO need to get more demand working.

Get the governor to approve use of METHANOL ... www.energyvictory.net   [methanol is made from natural gas] ... flex fuel

Get the governor to allow local conversions of vehicles to CNG ... easy-peasy ... check YouTube   ... bypass EPA approvals

AND, if you think YOU got problems, go here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/terrifying-charts-for-saudi-arabia-2013-7?op=1

comment:

http://www.lucianne.com/thread/?artnum=745744



http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-prince-alwaleed-warns-on-fracking-2013-7

Fracking Is Going To Crush The Saudi Economy If Nothing Is Done



AND the U.S. oil and gas economy is going to be increasing for YEARS!

[oh, and by the way, none of that includes the U.S. government sector ... this is just the states and private property!]


http://www.businessinsider.com/fracking-shale-extraction-and-depletion-2013-3?op=1
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: jackatc1 on July 29, 2013, 05:24:38 PM
Low value methane.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/month_drillers_burning_off_nearly_D5OEGMSvMnHwyRirxg9z0I
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on July 30, 2013, 10:03:00 AM
Tuesday 30 July 2013   1:02pm  ET


$3.44
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: jon_jon_ on July 31, 2013, 06:19:32 AM
Here's a blurb from The Kiplinger Letter

"But the cost of natural gas is set to rise as autumn and cooler weather near.
With stocks of gas in underground storage well below year-ago levels, today’s price
of $3.62 per million British thermal units can’t be counted on to last much longer.
Figure on $4 to $4.50 per MMBtu this winter, up considerably from the $3
to $4 prices that prevailed last winter. If Mother Nature proves especially nasty,
gas prices could briefly spike to $5, adding financial pain to the bite of cold weather."
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on July 31, 2013, 07:12:38 AM
jon_jon, hope Kiplinger is right on sure would like to see the $5. mark when they start selling NG from the three units we are in.

Any word out there on the previous question that is floating about EOG closing down and cementing 37 wells in the Bradford County area ??????

Two neighbors are in declared units of EOG that are said to be in the units that are being cemented in.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 31, 2013, 08:28:08 AM
As compression has been added in NEPA this year, Cabot had a 10 to 15 percent increase in production from existing wells. (according to their earnings call). They currently seem to be filling any capacity as it is added. They are adding another rig this year. I have not heard WPX and Southwestern talk, but added compression also helps them. They have both indicated in the past that they were constrained by pressure. Southwestern is actively drilling. Seems that Wyoming County, PA  is getting wells connected. Throughout NEPA, some companies are still working through their backlog of drilled not connected wells. Other Pennsylvania areas, such as Lycoming are coming in strong. I have not mentioned CHK, but aren't they still the leader in Pennsylvania production, and have a backlog of wells?

West Virginia, and Ohio are getting sales infrastructure expanded. The Utica could quickly hit 1 Bcf per day. Markwest Cadiz processing facility to mention one.
 
My point is that the odds of price averages above $3 to $4 are low in my opinion. I would guess that the odds of testing the $3 level before the injection season is over are far higher than going back above $4. Winter spikes above $4 can easily happen if we have an early Winter, but Winter is a long way off.  I hope that I am wrong.

I would like to know when the Kiplinger report was written, as the weather has recently turned towards lower Natural Gas use.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: jon_jon_ on July 31, 2013, 08:35:57 AM
Report was dated 26 July 13.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on July 31, 2013, 08:36:44 AM
Thanks, this will be interesting.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on July 31, 2013, 09:01:11 AM

  Ish, im a little pessimistic about pricing also.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 01, 2013, 03:53:38 PM
Thursday 01 August 2013   6:53pm  ET


$3.38

We continue to fall.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on August 01, 2013, 04:24:50 PM

  No heat. No demand. I hope the price doesnt crash.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 01, 2013, 04:56:16 PM

  No heat. No demand. I hope the price doesnt crash.

You are so right;  unfortunately for us.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: vicnaylor on August 01, 2013, 06:19:00 PM
$1.89 was the world of hurt. This is the sweet spot. Low enough to spur demand, high enough to be profitable.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 05, 2013, 06:20:59 PM
Monday 05 August 2013   9:20pm  ET


$3.33
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 06, 2013, 02:00:48 PM
Tuesday 06 August 2013   5:00pm  ET


$3.31
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 07, 2013, 06:43:54 PM
Wednesday 07 August 2013   9:41pm  ET


$3.24
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Georgeguy on August 08, 2013, 11:01:27 AM
Shin-

You are bringing tears to my eyes!!!
Let's hope for a really cold winter.

George
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 08, 2013, 03:24:27 PM
Shin-

You are bringing tears to my eyes!!!
Let's hope for a really cold winter.

George


Thursday 08 August 2013   6:21pm  ET


$3.32

A little higher today
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: firecutter874 on August 08, 2013, 04:19:28 PM
Keep on crying Georgie, you brought it up a bit.
Are you from Phillie Town?

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on August 09, 2013, 09:48:28 AM
World-wide, coal is getting more popular:

http://www.robertbryce.com/articles/508-keeping-the-poor-in-the-dark
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Georgeguy on August 09, 2013, 09:59:40 AM
Keep on crying Georgie, you brought it up a bit.
Are you from Phillie Town?

firecutter

Fire-

Originally.
South Philly born.
But that was way back--

George
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 09, 2013, 12:39:48 PM
Thursday 09 August 2013   3:39pm  ET


$3.23

 :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: firecutter874 on August 10, 2013, 06:55:48 AM
Georgie, wife & I are both from South Philly.
Good to see South Philly in this Gas Play.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Georgeguy on August 10, 2013, 07:49:45 PM
Georgie, wife & I are both from South Philly.
Good to see South Philly in this Gas Play.

firecutter
Best to you and wife-

Born at St. Agnes Hospital.
My sons are fifth generation to have eaten at Melrose Diner.
But we are long removed ----

George
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on August 11, 2013, 06:05:19 AM
Genscape: Electricity demand falls to lowest level since 2009
Aug 7, 2013

By Editors of Electric Light & Power/POWERGRID International

Average daily electric power demand fell 3 percent in July when compared with 2012, according to Genscape.

After a slow start to the month, temperatures for much of the country warmed into the mid-month period, driving what is likely to be the summer peak demand for the Midwest and the Eastern U.S.

However, the heat wave collapsed and the below average temperatures that followed for the eastern half of the U.S. helped to push demand rapidly downward. For the month, warmer than average anomalies were limited to the Northeast and the Western U.S.

When put into historical context, the estimate of 404,609 GWh is the lowest July total since 2009 (372,542 GWh). Genscape publishes its estimates in the Generation Fuel Monitor Report, which shows daily fuel consumption for all fuel types in the United States and is available two months in advance of EIA estimates.

Keeping with the July trend, Genscape’s meteorologists believe the summer will not end on a strong note.

"August is not likely to see a reversal of the trend, and summer demand peaks have likely passed for much of the country outside of Texas and the southwest," said Jefferson Rhoads, Meteorologist and Demand Forecaster at Genscape. "There is some mixed risk for the west coast given the cooler outlook for most of August, but they too have likely seen their summer peak."

Coal-fired generation was down 2 percent from July 2012 while natural gas was off 6 percent with the weaker demand. Despite the retirement of the Kewaunee nuclear plant in May, nuclear generation was up 2 percent year-over-year.

For the month, Genscape estimated coal-fired generation accounted for 39 percent of supply for electricity, which was in line with the YTD numbers. Natural gas fired generation accounted for 32 percent during the month, which was up slightly from the YTD average of 28 percent.

This article was originally published on Electric Light & Power/POWERGRID International. It was republished with permission.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on August 11, 2013, 06:07:20 AM
23.3%  the real unemployment rate


http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/heres-the-real-unemployment-rate-2/?cat_orig=us
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: firecutter874 on August 11, 2013, 05:10:21 PM
Georgie, the price of NG needs to stay above $3. till the cold weather sets in, should it get below $3., then we all will be crying with you.
On another note, the wife was born at St. Agnes, we ate at the Melrose many many times even when they were on Passyunk Ave. between 15 & 16 street.
Love living in Brad. Co. but still miss the old South Philly Days.
As they say, "You could go Home, but you can't go Back".

firecutter

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 12, 2013, 03:17:58 PM
Monday 12 August 2013   6:14pm  ET


$3.31
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 15, 2013, 02:07:06 PM
Thursday 15 August 2013   5:01pm  ET


$3.43

up a bit
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on August 15, 2013, 05:28:10 PM

  The summer cooling was a bust. The buyers are back for the winter heating gas. We really need to get a lot of big trucks,semis, and buses converted over . That would add some nice dependable demand. NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION BILL. NOW.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on August 15, 2013, 06:33:20 PM

  The summer cooling was a bust. The buyers are back for the winter heating gas. We really need to get a lot of big trucks,semis, and buses converted over . That would add some nice dependable demand. NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION BILL. NOW.

Since the domestic supply is almost limitless, i wonder if this price is the price it is going to stay at. We know the companies have many leases they could drill if the demand was there. If the demand goes up will they refuse to supply it and let the price go up? If one company had a monopoly, surely theynwould. But as long as there is shale gas all over the place, isnt there a price at which it is profitable enough for some companies to sell it and therefore, wont they do just that? I dont see any more than minor fluctuations with weather and occasional blips while new capacity comes on line. Sure hope i am wrong but i dont see why i would be.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on August 15, 2013, 07:01:56 PM

   I dont think the traders and commodity players like that. They like movement. Up or down. They can make money.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on August 15, 2013, 07:08:40 PM

   I dont think the traders and commodity players like that. They like movement. Up or down. They can make money.

Look at the historical charts for ng.

I dont think the traders can tell the producers not to produce. It seems like oil prices were high when either rockefeller or opec could limit production or refining. If there is no cartel then wont companies just jump in as soon as they can make a profit? I am sure there will be spikes, when there is either a sudden increase in demand or a sudden decrease in supply and the lucky guys who are selling then will do great but we landonwers have no control on when our gas will be sold.

Maybe the best we can hope for is to convert to an all ng energy source for everything such that shale production cannot quite keep up even going full bore?











Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on August 15, 2013, 07:17:54 PM

  It dropped a dollar ,almost 25% of its value in two months. I dont think its good for anyone when it drops below $4.00.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on August 16, 2013, 03:21:59 AM

  It dropped a dollar ,almost 25% of its value in two months. I dont think its good for anyone when it drops below $4.00.


Instead of moaning, get out there and compete to encourage new products made from natural gas.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Berkeley on August 16, 2013, 10:27:19 AM

  It dropped a dollar ,almost 25% of its value in two months. I dont think its good for anyone when it drops below $4.00.

Consumer likes cheap energy. It encourages investment in ng infrastructure. But not nice for royalty owners.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on August 16, 2013, 11:11:05 AM

  The drilling companies need to make money. Personally I dont think ultra low wholesale prices trickle down to regular retail consumers.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: macal on August 16, 2013, 11:24:14 AM

    I dont see fertilizer getting any cheaper. Any farmers want to chime in on that. I just buy it for my yard.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 18, 2013, 06:49:34 PM
Sunday 18 August 2013   9:44pm  ET


$3.41

We are up four cents since Sunday evening NYMEX trading opened roughly four and one half hours ago at 5:15pm ET.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 19, 2013, 05:32:50 AM
(contrary to what you might be reading elsewhere)

Monday 19 August 2013   8:29am  ET


$3.45

We are continuing to rise.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: Georgeguy on August 19, 2013, 06:46:57 AM
(contrary to what you might be reading elsewhere)

Monday 19 August 2013   8:29am  ET


$3.45

We are continuing to rise.

Who is the patron saint for frigid temperatures and blizzards?
I need to know where to direct my prayers.

George
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 19, 2013, 07:47:09 AM
Monday 19 August 2013   10:44am  ET


$3.50

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: mohawk70 on August 19, 2013, 12:05:55 PM
(contrary to what you might be reading elsewhere)

Monday 19 August 2013   8:29am  ET


$3.45

We are continuing to rise.

Who is the patron saint for frigid temperatures and blizzards?
I need to know where to direct my prayers.

George


Greetings, Pilgrim!

Your search is ended:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/07/noaa-confirms-model-defying-global-temperature-stagnation-2012-was-among-coolest-in-21st-century/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.25
Post by: shinobi on August 21, 2013, 07:30:22 AM
Wednesday 21 August 2013   10:29am  ET


$3.46
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 22, 2013, 05:55:44 AM
Thursday 22 August 2013   8:53am  ET


$3.51
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 22, 2013, 12:51:02 PM
Thursday 22 August 2013   3:48pm  ET


$3.54

We continue up.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on August 22, 2013, 01:42:54 PM

Must be getting cold in New England.... 8)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 22, 2013, 02:03:59 PM

Must be getting cold in New England.... 8)

Ayyyy, yup!  Forecast for Elmira for tomorrow night is temps in the 40's.  So, yup, I think we might sell a little NG in Maine to help keep those folks warm.

Always happy to be of service!    ;)

(cha-ching!  $$$ :)) )
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 25, 2013, 02:56:29 PM
Sunday 25 August 2013   5:54pm  ET


$3.49

The NYMEX is now open for trading.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: aubrey on August 25, 2013, 04:55:35 PM
winter is coming early. there's been a few days already this year that it felt like frost up here on the hill.

all of my apples are about a month ahead of normal. usually I would not be able to make cider even now, but I've been squeezing for almost a month.

hopefully the injection season will end in another month, and we will go into the heating season slightly below the 5 yr. average with northeast storage.

then...pray for a brutal winter. no...a long brutal winter.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: haybaler on August 25, 2013, 05:12:10 PM
winter is coming early. there's been a few days already this year that it felt like frost up here on the hill.

all of my apples are about a month ahead of normal. usually I would not be able to make cider even now, but I've been squeezing for almost a month.

hopefully the injection season will end in another month, and we will go into the heating season slightly below the 5 yr. average with northeast storage.

then...pray for a brutal winter. no...a long brutal winter.

wj

Why?

I can already smell a warm fall season. Good leaves, Good Camping, Dry wood.

Might trick those thinking winter will be the same.

Praying wont help ya, crying wont do ya no good.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: aubrey on August 25, 2013, 05:48:45 PM
why? I already explained why.

so i'll recap for ya...my apples are dropping way earlier this year and they are ripe. this is august, typically the hottest month of the year, but we had the real hot weather back in july and been close to a frost a couple of times this month (like september). this is dove season weather, not the dog days of august.

one thing I didn't mention before, the September daytime crickets are chirping. I've never heard them this early.

now i'll freely admit that I could be way wrong, i'm just going by a few natural signs that the season is changing early this year.

you can believe anything you want. it's a free country, and I wont try to change your mind, but although you are correct that crying (which I have no intention of doing) won't do nobody no good, I wouldn't say the same about prayer. prayer ya see has proven effects on folks who does it.

and although I used the term loosely, knowing that it wouldn't be right or proper to pray for such things in the hopes of making more money, I still think that fall is on it's way early this year, and maybe along with it will come some extra use of natural gas to keep folks warm and cozy in those new York city apartments.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: haybaler on August 25, 2013, 06:23:57 PM
ah no, no where near why. August, hottest month? Way back when before... Ahh just forget it or as much as you please.

Gas price at your well head got you down? Been thinking about apartments in the city?

The crickets are loud because there are more of them. Or just admit to yourself your hearings gone bad.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 26, 2013, 04:47:49 AM
Monday 26 August 2013   7:45am  ET


$3.53

Nice little overnight up move
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on August 26, 2013, 07:05:51 AM
Yo, WJ, Haybaler, what ever you are doing "Keep it Up"
It is ticking up as we speak.    handclap handclap handclap handclap handclap handclap handclap

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: mohawk70 on August 26, 2013, 11:37:36 AM
Farmer's Almanac forecasts a very cold winter 2013-2014:

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2013/08/26/get-ready-bitterly-cold-winter-coming-n1673598
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 27, 2013, 05:24:02 PM
Tuesday 27 August 2013   8:19pm  ET


$3.55

Holding
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: haybaler on August 27, 2013, 05:31:32 PM
well aside from sniping at WJ, I don't want a cold arse winter. I don't see any help in wanting one just to TEMPorarily drive NG prices. Not for a little payback if thats the thought there?

We need good economics to drive NG price and just about everything else, except beer.

Had a sip of the OTHER keg of cider waaay back in the day and never met the match since.

besides i do camp in the winter, some days start out nice and some mornings are just once in a life time.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on August 28, 2013, 05:23:42 AM
If you are going to talk seriously about boosting the demand (and hopefully the price) for natural gas, the amount going into electrical generation and industrial production of all kinds far exceeds the effect of even the coldest winter or the hottest summer.  More generation of electricity from gas and less from coal and nuclear have been key ingredients in keeping prices from getting even worse in this time of oversupply.  And if we could keep gaining back industrial production in plastics, nitrogen fertilizer and other heavy users, that would be the best deal of all.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on August 28, 2013, 10:59:18 AM
Yep Rock, you are right for the long run, but till then  a bit of a chill in those big city burgs would be a link on that long chain.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Greene12468 on August 28, 2013, 01:31:13 PM
By the way, Con Edison buys gas in very long term contracts and passes on those prices to its customers.  it took 2-3 years for customers to see the post-2008 price drop.  So a long cold winter this year will increase the price Con Edison pays in 2015-16.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on August 30, 2013, 09:52:02 AM
Friday 30 August 2013   12:48pm  ET


$3.59
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on September 02, 2013, 09:15:11 AM

Looks like $3.70 may be in sight this week  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 03, 2013, 06:48:17 AM
Tuesday 03 September 2013   9:47am  ET


$3.67
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 10, 2013, 12:06:01 PM
Tuesday 10 September 2013   3:03pm  ET


$3.58
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on September 13, 2013, 03:22:50 PM

Getting closer to $3.70 now... :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 15, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

Getting closer to $3.70 now... :)

Yes, it is:

Sunday 15 September 2013   10:37pm  ET


$3.69
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on September 16, 2013, 02:10:51 PM

$3.70 +....next $3.80...keep the mojo going :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 17, 2013, 04:41:54 AM

Tuesday 17 September 2013   7:38am  ET


$3.75
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on September 17, 2013, 05:55:18 AM
Tuesday 17 September 2013   8:53am  ET


$3.76
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on September 17, 2013, 05:58:01 AM
It is moving in the right direction, and after last night with the temp in the mid 30's here in sleepy hollow, some may have turned their heat up a bit, and we might be seeing that elusive $4. mark.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on September 17, 2013, 06:36:48 AM
Tuesday 17 September 2013   8:53am  ET


$3.76


baby, it's cold outside.

Flannel shirt time.

Early winter.

Brrrrr.....


Crank up the heat.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on September 18, 2013, 06:21:57 AM
Wednesday 18 September 2013   9:18am  ET


$3.70

Down a bit
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on September 24, 2013, 10:28:41 AM
Tuesday 24 September 2013   1:25pm  ET


$3.52


We are down
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on September 24, 2013, 11:06:54 AM

What`s happening with the pricing?    It`s cold at night here in western/central Pa.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: haybaler on September 24, 2013, 04:49:53 PM
The NG price today slipped quietly over the $3.00 mark.  It stands now at $3.02.

Next stop $12.00 and my first yacht!  Blue Laugh

How about some history? 07/19/2012. $3.02.

24 September 2013-  $3.52.

Yacht?   2026? 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on September 25, 2013, 04:40:33 AM
comparing degree days might be helpful.

here is an example using Lock Haven:   type in 17745 ... the zip code

http://www.weatherdatadepot.com/?pi_ad_id=31656580705&gclid=COvQy-265rkCFc01QgodVEYA0Q
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on September 25, 2013, 06:08:08 AM

What`s happening with the pricing?    It`s cold at night here in western/central Pa.
>>>> It might very well be chilly in the region of production, but what counts is the weather in the region of consumption.  As far as I can see on the weather reports the major metro areas in the northeast for the most part have had weather on the mild side with just a few chilly days so far.  I think we can count more on the steady switch from coal to natural gas to make electricity than the ever fickle weather.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 26, 2013, 12:03:12 AM
Thursday 26 September 2013   2:55am  ET


$3.49


We have been hovering near to $3.50 for several days.  This is the first print I have seen which falls beneath that level. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on September 27, 2013, 02:56:56 PM
Friday 27 September 2013   5:53pm  ET


$3.59
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: haybaler on October 01, 2013, 05:36:16 PM
Well, looks like 80 tomorrow. Looks like 80 the day after. Ants gonna be enjoying all that (Grounded) apple cyder?

Anybody looking for a NG snow sled?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on October 03, 2013, 01:30:30 PM
Thursday 03 October 2013   4:28pm  ET


$3.51
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on October 07, 2013, 12:54:55 PM
Monday 07 October 2013   3:52pm  ET


$3.63
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: flyfisher on October 07, 2013, 03:27:21 PM

NG price creeping upward again...is there a source of information (website) to learn where the drilling rigs are located in Pennsylvania by county?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on October 07, 2013, 05:51:40 PM

NG price creeping upward again...is there a source of information (website) to learn where the drilling rigs are located in Pennsylvania by county?
>>>> There is an organization that calls itself fractracker.org that has a site with maps of drilling in various states.  Their map of Pennsylvania doesn't show the location of drilling rigs or county boundaries, but does show wells recently drilled.  I know that in Bradford County if you type in as a search term "Bradford County natural gas" that you will get a more detailed series of maps in that county of drilling activity created by the County government.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: g592314 on October 07, 2013, 06:31:02 PM
www.bakerhughes.com
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on October 10, 2013, 06:01:09 AM
 :)
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on October 10, 2013, 05:03:35 PM
Keep whipping that horse Shin, who knows maybe we'll se $5or better by this time next year.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 14, 2013, 01:18:15 AM
Monday 14 October 2013    Columbus Day    4:11am  ET


$3.84
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: NKLM on October 16, 2013, 05:41:54 AM
Shinobi

Just want to thank you for posting the rise a d fall of the market each week.  I refer to this when we receive a royalty check to see how it compares.  Since the information does not roll off, it is a valuable reference.  Thanks!  Keep up the good work.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: flyfisher on October 16, 2013, 02:48:25 PM

A cold wave I going to sweep into Eastern US next week...brrrrrr!!  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 16, 2013, 03:05:55 PM
Shinobi

Just want to thank you for posting the rise a d fall of the market each week.  I refer to this when we receive a royalty check to see how it compares.  Since the information does not roll off, it is a valuable reference.  Thanks!  Keep up the good work.

Sure.  No problem.  OK, here is today's report:

Wednesday 16 October 2013   6:02pm  ET


$3.77
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 18, 2013, 05:36:31 AM

Friday 18 October 2013   8:32am  ET


$3.70
 
Down a bit
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 21, 2013, 12:48:40 PM
Monday 21 October 2013   3:46am  ET


$3.66


We continue to fall
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: moldyoak on October 21, 2013, 05:14:37 PM
"I've fallen and I can't get up!!!!!"   :P
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on October 22, 2013, 01:55:50 AM
Very weird article about "high natural gas prices".

[Scroll down]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-fuel-bills-to-rise-this-season/18921069

Natural gas prices are close to rock bottom, but the article suggests/ states that the price is going to be punishingly high.


The comments are good.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: climber1 on October 22, 2013, 06:05:28 AM
Ya weird. But then they seem to say NG price will increase from 10-15% over last winter, which considering those prices is still not very high.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: black dog on October 22, 2013, 09:48:14 AM
Very weird article about "high natural gas prices".

[Scroll down]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-fuel-bills-to-rise-this-season/18921069

Natural gas prices are close to rock bottom, but the article suggests/ states that the price is going to be punishingly high.


The comments are good.

Unless chainsaw gas goes way up, I can't imagine the cabin in the picture is going to see much higher heating bills!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 22, 2013, 11:37:00 AM
Tuesday 22 October 2013   2:33pm  ET


$3.58

We are falling quite rapidly.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: dlowry on October 22, 2013, 01:51:14 PM
Ha, I remember back in the 80's when a lot of Southeast Oklahoma's gas contracts ($.25 - .50 per mcf) were expiring and everyone was excited about getting to negotiate new contracts for $1.10 per mcf............ times have changed.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 22, 2013, 02:44:18 PM
Ha, I remember back in the 80's when a lot of Southeast Oklahoma's gas contracts ($.25 - .50 per mcf) were expiring and everyone was excited about getting to negotiate new contracts for $1.10 per mcf............ times have changed.

Thank you.  Well, OK.  I think that's a valuable observation.  However, please let's be fair and not ignore the impact of inflation.  Using the calculator here:

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ (http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/) we find the following:

If the price of NG in 1980 was US$1.10, that would translate in 2013 dollars to US$3.12.

If the price of NG in 1985 was US$1.10, that would translate in 2013 dollars to US$2.39.

All prices I provide on this thread are in 2013 US$.  So while your point remains well taken, the inflation adjustment makes the contrast a bit less vivid.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Dogbone on October 23, 2013, 07:48:43 AM
Deleted by Dogbone. 
Subject was previously posted by "aktony" under a separate topic heading.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 25, 2013, 05:07:51 AM
Friday 25 October 2013   8:04am  ET


$3.65
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on October 25, 2013, 05:15:21 AM

  Unfortunately royalties in the Marcellus are not matching that price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on October 25, 2013, 07:40:12 AM

  Unfortunately royalties in the Marcellus are not matching that price.
You might have generalized too much. My price received for August was $3.178/mmbtu or $3.594/mcf. That looks about 5% below the August NYMEX.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on October 25, 2013, 07:54:35 AM

   Cabot Northeast Pa. $2.98 August.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on October 25, 2013, 09:59:39 AM
August NYMEX prices posted in this thread ranged from $3.20 to $3.55/mcf. It was around 3.3 until the last week. So Cabot's prices weren't too bad.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on October 25, 2013, 10:48:43 AM

 
   Cabot had been on exactly Nymex for many months. Just the way it is.Marcellus price has softened especially in the Northeast.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on October 25, 2013, 02:33:44 PM
Friday 25 October 2013   5:29pm  ET


$3.73
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 01, 2013, 04:46:56 AM
Friday 01 November 2013   7:44am  ET


$3.56
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 01, 2013, 11:09:31 AM
Friday 01 November 2013   2:06pm  ET


$3.53

Down twenty cents from (roughly) this same time one week ago.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on November 04, 2013, 07:30:33 AM
Monday 04 November 2013   10:26am  ET


$3.44

Not a happy report here.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: firecutter874 on November 04, 2013, 03:40:15 PM
Keep your chin up Shin  ;) my Heater was running quite a bit last night, and I am sure my NG meter was spinning likre all the others.
Thanks for keeping us in the loop  ;) ;)

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on November 07, 2013, 10:20:57 AM
The propane supply curve peaks several weeks earlier than natural gas. It's rocketing lower lately, looking like it will break though the 5 yr range. Wholesale prices are up.
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_propane.html
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on November 10, 2013, 09:01:13 AM
Sunday 10 November 2013   11:58am  ET


$3.56

The NYMEX will re-open for placement of orders today (Sunday) at 5:15pm.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: shinobi on November 17, 2013, 02:25:38 PM
Sunday 17 November 2013   5:22pm  ET

$3.66

Trading has begun
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on November 17, 2013, 02:54:48 PM

  No one is paying Nymex in NE PA. anymore.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on November 17, 2013, 03:32:55 PM

  No one is paying Nymex in NE PA. anymore.
>>>> I think companies can get NYMEX or similar benchmark prices for their production only if they have established transportation capacity to the markets in the northeast.  Otherwise they can find themselves with stranded production where the buyer has all the market power and the seller takes what they can get.  Which accounts for the ridiculously low price recently reported of just 1 dollar paid by Southwestern for some production of other companies.  What seems to be definitely just a memory is the northeast premium which used to be a normal feature of the days when the northeast imported most of its natural gas from other regions.  That premium usually was about 25 to 50 cents.  Instead the hugely productive gas fields in the Marcellus are projected in a recent Wood Mckenzie study to average an 80 cent discount to the national prices through 2014.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on November 17, 2013, 03:56:36 PM

  Ouch. We need to sell some gas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on November 18, 2013, 09:19:32 AM
Hi Rockdale, would you tell me which study? Do you have a link, or an approximate title so that I can search for it?
 
Hi macal, could you give some numbers for Cabot, and other companies in the Northeast? What sort of range of different payments are you basing this on? P.S. Cabot has reported that as of 6 to 8 weeks ago the hard hit Leidy sales have bounced back up. Pipes still maxed, but some demand increases if I remember correctly. 
 
  No one is paying Nymex in NE PA. anymore.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on November 18, 2013, 09:41:41 AM
I will check tonight
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on November 18, 2013, 09:56:56 AM

  Cabot was right on nymex for many months but the last few they have been below.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Rockdale on November 18, 2013, 10:58:25 AM
Hi Rockdale, would you tell me which study? Do you have a link, or an approximate title so that I can search for it?
 
Hi macal, could you give some numbers for Cabot, and other companies in the Northeast? What sort of range of different payments are you basing this on? P.S. Cabot has reported that as of 6 to 8 weeks ago the hard hit Leidy sales have bounced back up. Pipes still maxed, but some demand increases if I remember correctly. 
 
  No one is paying Nymex in NE PA. anymore.
>>>> Isheoktoday, typing in as a lead the term "Wood McKenzie:  Marcellus expected to dominate US..." should bring up multiple news media entries repeating the same article that was carried on about November 6 and later.  It is very unfortunate that we've got the glut and low prices, and I hope the situation is resolved sooner rather than later. But it explains a lot as to why on November 1 when the new 800 million cubic foot a day pipeline built by Spectra to New York City opened for business, that the wholesale price for the gas it carried was actually less than that on the same day at Henry Hub in Louisiana.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on November 18, 2013, 12:37:06 PM
Thanks Rockdale and macal.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: bellbucci on November 21, 2013, 08:46:24 AM
First withdrawal of the season announced today -- 45bcf. That puts NG storage just above the 5yr average.

Propane storage has continued its sharp fall, with latest numbers nicely below the 5yr low.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on November 21, 2013, 08:48:40 AM
Ruby_99, that is great news.
 
First withdrawal of the season announced today -- 45bcf. That puts NG storage just above the 5yr average.

Propane storage has continued its sharp fall, with latest numbers nicely below the 5yr low.

 
macal ,Since Royalties are paid on a delay, I think that Landowners have seen the worst for awhile from Cabot. Should see closer to Nymex prices in the coming checks.

Seeking Alpha Earnings Transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1774972-cabot-oil-gas-management-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1774972-cabot-oil-gas-management-discusses-q3-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single)

................"Our natural price realizations were approximately 96% of the average NYMEX last-day settle price for the third quarter, which exceeded expectations based on the mid-point of the basis differential guidance range we provided in early September."..............

.........."We anticipate fourth quarter realized pricing will be stronger than we saw in the third quarter, with an unhedged basis differential guidance range of plus $0.10 to minus $0.30 relative to NYMEX."..............................



  Cabot was right on nymex for many months but the last few they have been below.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.50
Post by: macal on November 21, 2013, 08:57:31 AM

  Thanks Ish. I am very happy with Cabot. Their customer serviceis excellent along with their whole ooperations . They are good partners. Hopefully they will continue to get fair market value for their gas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 22, 2013, 06:28:05 AM
Friday 22 November 2013   9:21am  ET

$3.76

Forecast: Pervasive global warming will cause a massive cold outbreak commencing this weekend and extending into next week.   ???
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 24, 2013, 06:02:58 AM
Sunday 24 November 2013   9:00am  ET

$3.77
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 24, 2013, 06:50:55 AM

  Looks like the price of ng is all about the weather in the Northeast.  Cold winters and hot summers. Lets make it more. Power generation, transportation fuel, manufacturing energy and ingredients. and even exportation.
  Englender says we have 500 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in the Marcellus alone.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 27, 2013, 07:44:01 PM
Wednesday 27 November 2013   10:39pm  ET

$3.91

There appears to be noticeable upward movement in price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on November 27, 2013, 08:08:57 PM
NG storage declined 13Bcf last week, with propane continuing to go well below the five year range.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on November 29, 2013, 12:33:57 PM
gettin' cold outside ...

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/snow-cover-may-help-usher-in-historic-cold-to-northwest-16787
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 29, 2013, 03:03:37 PM

  Good news. Price of gasoline going down and the price of natural gas going up.  :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on November 29, 2013, 04:09:31 PM
Friday 29 November 2013   7:08pm  ET

$3.95

We continue upward.  I think we might break $4.00.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on November 29, 2013, 08:02:28 PM
who is "we" exactly? do you live in louisiana? I don't.

tgp zone 4 marcellus prices on nov. 27 ranged between $2.62 and $3.05. down $0.35 on average for the day.

but take heart, eastern region storage numbers are down from last year and there are cold days ahead.

maybe one bitterly cold day this winter, the numbers in this thread will have some relevance to us, when Marcellus region pricing claws it's way back to par with the henry hub down south.

statoil sold their gas here in the marcellus in September for $2. the nymex hh closing price was $3.567 for the same month. relevance?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: eupany on November 30, 2013, 04:46:09 AM
Can we get running updates of the TGP zone 4 pricing added to this thread.... or start a new one?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on November 30, 2013, 05:14:59 AM

   Where exactly is Zone 4 ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on November 30, 2013, 06:22:23 AM
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/11/29/nearly-1000-record-low-temperatures-set-as-another-round-of-arctic-air-forecast-to-deep-freeze-the-u-s/

NG might soar up to $5.00 in another week.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on November 30, 2013, 06:45:05 AM
The science is settled. Nothing to see here move along.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on November 30, 2013, 07:52:14 AM
I'm not up on all the different figures for different regions, but NYMEX numbers are quite relevant for me. Judging from Antero's presentations, gas in my area sells for 10 to 15 cents less than NYMEX.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on November 30, 2013, 10:23:54 AM
I'm not up on all the different figures for different regions, but NYMEX numbers are quite relevant for me. Judging from Antero's presentations, gas in my area sells for 10 to 15 cents less than NYMEX.

well let's see....maybe I used the wrong word.

rel·e·vance  (rl-vns)
n.
1.  Pertinence to the matter at hand.

so what does pertinence mean?

per·ti·nent  (pûrtn-nt)
adj.
Having logical precise relevance to the matter at hand.

 slaplaugh kinda goin' around in circles there. but there is the addition of logical and precise in the definition of pertinence, so..... is it logical and precise to compare ones royalty pricing figures to a sales point over a thousand miles away? in a completely different market? with different weather factors affecting demand?

I do get what you're saying though. at a time, up here in nepa there seemed to be relevance in our pricing compared to the hh prices. but that time is long gone for us, and will not always be there for you either.

therefore a coincidence has given the false impression of relevance. currently dominion south sales are much closer to hh pricing than tgp zone 4 pricing. you are near the dominion area.

and I hope we're talking all dry gas here. if we had wetter gas up here in nepa, we'd be experiencing a pricing environment much closer to nymex than we currently are too.

now don't get me wrong. I look at nymex pricing everyday on my way to work with my croissant and triple espresso double mochaccino latte' too. it's kinda fun and informative in the sense that that index gives an idea of the general health of the industry pricewise. but the problem is, that far too many royalty recipients use this number to judge whether or not they're being treated fairly in their royalty payments, and in that sense, the pricing represented in this thread has no relevance whatsoever to gas sales price figures in our areas.

it is important for folks to understand that fact.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on November 30, 2013, 11:20:53 AM

   Where exactly is Zone 4 ?
>>>> From the maps publicly available it would seem that Zone 4 of the Tennessee Pipeline stretches from the Ohio River at the Ohio/Kentucky border and makes a big arc through eastern Ohio and northern Pennsylvania until it crosses the Delaware into New Jersey.  There is a lot of extremely productive acreage within close range to that pipeline.  According to the EIA website the pricing at Henry Hub and on the Zone 4 was remarkably close for the early part of the year, and then there has been a wide divergence for the remainder of 2013.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on November 30, 2013, 02:40:19 PM
Keep it coming WJ, sure is refressing to have you back to keep US/WE straight.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: donegal on December 01, 2013, 06:00:29 AM
I'm not up on all the different figures for different regions, but NYMEX numbers are quite relevant for me. Judging from Antero's presentations, gas in my area sells for 10 to 15 cents less than NYMEX.

well let's see....maybe I used the wrong word.

rel·e·vance  (rl-vns)
n.
1.  Pertinence to the matter at hand.

so what does pertinence mean?

per·ti·nent  (pûrtn-nt)
adj.
Having logical precise relevance to the matter at hand.

 slaplaugh kinda goin' around in circles there. but there is the addition of logical and precise in the definition of pertinence, so..... is it logical and precise to compare ones royalty pricing figures to a sales point over a thousand miles away? in a completely different market? with different weather factors affecting demand?

I do get what you're saying though. at a time, up here in nepa there seemed to be relevance in our pricing compared to the hh prices. but that time is long gone for us, and will not always be there for you either.

therefore a coincidence has given the false impression of relevance. currently dominion south sales are much closer to hh pricing than tgp zone 4 pricing. you are near the dominion area.

and I hope we're talking all dry gas here. if we had wetter gas up here in nepa, we'd be experiencing a pricing environment much closer to nymex than we currently are too.

now don't get me wrong. I look at nymex pricing everyday on my way to work with my croissant and triple espresso double mochaccino latte' too. it's kinda fun and informative in the sense that that index gives an idea of the general health of the industry pricewise. but the problem is, that far too many royalty recipients use this number to judge whether or not they're being treated fairly in their royalty payments, and in that sense, the pricing represented in this thread has no relevance whatsoever to gas sales price figures in our areas.

it is important for folks to understand that fact.

wj


   Where exactly is Zone 4 ?
>>>> From the maps publicly available it would seem that Zone 4 of the Tennessee Pipeline stretches from the Ohio River at the Ohio/Kentucky border and makes a big arc through eastern Ohio and northern Pennsylvania until it crosses the Delaware into New Jersey.  There is a lot of extremely productive acreage within close range to that pipeline.  According to the EIA website the pricing at Henry Hub and on the Zone 4 was remarkably close for the early part of the year, and then there has been a wide divergence for the remainder of 2013.

Here's recent report of how marked the divergence is, presently:

http://www.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=4288&nhValue=126051&nmValue=126091&dValue=1&tid=13340677&showall=1

Quote: (color mine)
"Marcellus Gas Selling For As Low As $1.83 in PA

Friday's natural gas spot market closing prices were an extreme example of the now established price separation of the Marcellus Northeast spot market from Louisiana's Henry Hub. While Marcellus Northeast Gas is typically 20 to 40 cents below Henry Hub, Friday's closing prices featured a Grand Canyon gap between the two.

As quoted in the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, Marcellus gas closed as low as $1.83/mcf at one Pennsylvania hub compared to the Henry Hub price at $3.78 for an astonishing $1.95/mcf price difference. The low prices in the Marcellus Northeast are rooted in enormous production from some of America's most prolific gas wells. "

Sad, but true.

Donegal
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on December 01, 2013, 06:33:26 AM

  I guess the bottom line is what figure the gascos come up with for royalty payment.That should reflect what the company has been paid for their gas for the month.  I don't think that sub $2 gas is the norm.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Rockdale on December 01, 2013, 07:03:17 AM

  I guess the bottom line is what figure the gascos come up with for royalty payment.That should reflect what the company has been paid for their gas for the month.  I don't think that sub $2 gas is the norm.
>>>> It's certainly a bad situation to be selling natural gas so cheaply, whether 2 dollars or the incredibly low 1 dollar as some sales were reported this past summer.  I think for a land owner receiving royalties based on sales volume that they need to do some research as to how much capacity to deliver natural gas the energy company they deal with has lined up.  Some companies were quite good in keeping their production in line with their capacity to transport, as in the example of Cabot or Southwestern.  And others, and I think Chesapeake falls at least partly into this category, didn't have sufficient capacity to transport and they and their royalty holders are at the mercy of others if they have to make a sale immediately.  Southwestern reported some business transactions where they were buying gas for a dollar and even slightly less and then after transporting it on the pipelines they had reserved reselling the same product for the prevailing price at the time of about $3.50.  In that kind of situation there is a whole lot more money to be made in playing the part of a middleman than in being a producer.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on December 01, 2013, 07:14:05 AM

  I guess the bottom line is what figure the gascos come up with for royalty payment.That should reflect what the company has been paid for their gas for the month.  I don't think that sub $2 gas is the norm.

what you think is largely irrelevant also. it is what it is.

from the article, "Marcellus gas closed as low as $1.83/mcf at one Pennsylvania hub...". that doesn't mean that anyone got paid $1.83 for their royalties, but the $1.83 sales were averaged in with other sales to arrive at a weighted average price which then appears on our royalty statements.

preconceived fanciful notions and emotional thoughts and fears of being cheated by those "big oil and gas companies" should be put aside in favor of a quest for a better understanding of how these things actually work. I would hope that that is why someone comes here...for information, not to spread misinformation which only serves to further confuse and upset the misinformed.

I should also say, that the use of "tgpz4" prices are once again an average across a large swath, which may or may not have relevance for any particular mineral owner, depending.....

there are even more specific pricing points within the tgp zone 4 area which do better or worse on any given day than the average of zone 4 prices.

then there are millennium, Transco, leidy, etc. points of sale in the marcellus. this line of discussion could go on ad infinitum, but the point that I feel needs to be taken is that each landowner should learn the specifics regarding his own particular market area to better understand the source of the revenue he receives.

and btw, this has all been discussed at length previously on this forum.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on December 01, 2013, 07:24:26 AM

  Statoil is a partner to Chesapeake.  Is Chesapeake playing fair with Statoil or giving them the short end of the stick when it comes to selling ng.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on December 01, 2013, 04:18:30 PM

Quote
Marcellus Gas Selling For As Low As $1.83 in PA
Bet that's some of the gas SWN is buying and using their (SWN) pipeline capacity to resell at destination.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on December 02, 2013, 11:47:37 AM
Monday 02 December 2013   2:42pm  ET

$3.99

That magical $4.00 price getting so, so close.

Whoda thunkit!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on December 02, 2013, 12:11:09 PM
meanwhile, back in pa....

tgpz4  $3.24 up $0.39

tgpz4 sta-219  $3.58 up $0.08

dominion south  $3.37 up $0.12

tetco-m3  $3.74 up $0.07

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on December 02, 2013, 12:13:41 PM
forgot the leidy...

leidy  $3.34 up $0.42

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on December 02, 2013, 03:23:55 PM
not necessarily good news for nepa.

"Tennessee announced it will conduct maintenance on its Compressor Station 321 in Susquehanna County, PA, today through the end of the month. ...As a result, Tennessee anticipates limiting secondary in-path firm transports through TGP’s Segment 321. During a similar 21-day maintenance event in July, throughput volume fell 65 MMcf/d, from 835 MMcf/d to 770 MMcf/d. Over the past 30 days, flows through the compressor station have averaged 1.38 Bcf/d, suggesting gas flows into New Jersey may be displaced by 100 MMcf/d to 150 MMcf/d in early December by the station outage. The displaced flows may be wheeled through Stagecoach to reach the New York market. TGP Zn 4 cash basis could experience some downward pressure as a result of the influx of supply on TGP Leg 300. However, due to the high degree of interconnectivity in the region and the minimal gas displacement, a price impact is unlikely."

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: shinobi on December 03, 2013, 07:20:57 AM
Tuesday 03 December 2013   10:16am  ET

$4.00

Sweet!!   handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: firecutter874 on December 04, 2013, 04:36:50 PM
Using Shinobi or WJ numbers still better than the Two Bucks not so long ago.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: aubrey on December 04, 2013, 04:53:25 PM
technically though cutter the nymex didn't make 4 bucks, the high was $3.996, but Bloomberg rounds up or down.

don't tell shinobi though, when he's happy he stays on his meds.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on December 05, 2013, 04:29:05 AM
Excellent excellent article on price versus volume for natural gas.

http://www.lngworldnews.com/eia-gas-use-for-power-generation-falls-as-industrial-sector-consumption-rises-usa/

I wish the graph went back ten years instead of only three years.

That way you could see the good old days of $15 gas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00!!
Post by: shinobi on December 05, 2013, 06:45:05 AM
Thursday 05 December 2013   9:43am  ET

$3.99

We've been bouncing around here for a few days just below (and at least once kissing) the $4.00 mark.  I think this upcoming cold snap, forecast to commence within the next several days, could push us solidly over that mark.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: bellbucci on December 05, 2013, 07:42:25 AM
Big withdrawal from ng storage announced today. 162 bcf puts storage under the 5yr average. http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Propane storage continued its drop while wholesale prices rose slightly.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: Walnut on December 05, 2013, 12:30:26 PM
Thursday 05 December 2013   3:29 PM ET $4.14

Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: mohawk70 on December 05, 2013, 01:24:30 PM
Thursday 05 December 2013   3:29 PM ET $4.14


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/ilate-week-ice-storm-texas-to-pennsylvania/20571898
Title: Re: NYMEX price crosses $4.00
Post by: aubrey on December 05, 2013, 01:25:53 PM
tgp zone 4 $3.18 up $0.016

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $3.75
Post by: macal on December 05, 2013, 02:14:03 PM

    Rough  :-[ :-[
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on December 05, 2013, 02:33:55 PM
<Thanks, Walnut.  Good post!>

Thursday 05 December 2013   5:17pm  ET

$4.14   ???   handclap

We've been bouncing around here for a few days just below (and at least once kissing) the $4.00 mark.  I think this upcoming cold snap, forecast to commence within the next several days, could push us solidly over that mark.

Lucky call.  Still, I need to get to that NYMEX trading floor now!   slaplaugh

Those traders in NYC don't need a weathervane to know which way the wind blows.  It's already plenty cold west of here.  Please standby.  That cold is coming apace.

[And of course the upcoming cold, in its entirety, will be the logical outcome of global warming!!   slaplaugh slaplaugh]
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: cara on December 06, 2013, 06:01:34 AM
I expect the price to continue rising since yesterday press release stated investors were surprised by the larger than expected draw down of stored gas.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on December 06, 2013, 02:33:17 PM
the nymex only lost a penny today, but:

the leidy lost 10 cents averaging $3.13

and tgp zone 4 took a dump of 31 cents selling at an average of $2.87

millennium ep gained 8.5 cents and averaged $3.64 all other points gained as well.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 07, 2013, 06:12:42 AM

  $2.87 is a piss poor price for 1000 cubic feet of natural gas. It has the same energy of almost 8 gallons of gasoline. Lets get a nat gas transportation bill going.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: mohawk70 on December 07, 2013, 06:14:12 AM

  $2.87 is a piss poor price for 1000 cubic feet of natural gas. It has the same energy of almost 8 gallons of gasoline. Lets get a nat gas transportation bill going.


Yeah.  If we FORCE the price of natural gas up, then NO BODY will buy the stuff.


On the other hand, if we get the EPA's fingers AWAY from rules prohibiting people from converting their cars and trucks, then people WILL buy more natural gas.

Get your local governor to ALLOW the use of methanol for Flex Fuel Vehicles.   No subsidies; just ALLOW people to power their vehicles with methanol.

But right now, so many people have their fingers in the rules, regulations, restrictions and laws, that the existing local industry is not PERMITTED to move forward.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 07, 2013, 06:25:11 AM

  We need to convert the bigger trucks and semi trucks. A semi can burn 100 gallons of diesel a day.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: mohawk70 on December 07, 2013, 06:30:45 AM
http://www.setamericafree.org/zubrin.pdf


www.energyvictory.net   


http://www.iags.org/


http://www.robertbryce.com/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 07, 2013, 07:27:16 AM

  $2.87 minus CHK. 80 cents post production. And its winter. Not good. Transportation. Lets give gasoline a little competition. You would think that Corbett and Toomey would be all over it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: Rockdale on December 07, 2013, 08:54:48 AM
Watching the national market price certainly is important, but it would be a big breakthrough for all concerned if the local prices could catch up.  The other day I had started a thread about the comparison of the Henry Hub price to the local sales points, and I see that the figures on a site found by "g592314" have been updated.  Right now, and it's been a pattern for some time, what is called the "Marcellus" sales point on the Tennessee line has the lowest prices as of yesterday to be found at the more than 100 sales points in the United States, and the Marcellus sales point is about 1 dollar less than other points on the Tennessee Zone 4.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 07, 2013, 09:04:16 AM

   Where exactly is that point . Western Bradford County ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on December 07, 2013, 09:33:42 AM

   Where exactly is that point . Western Bradford County ?

Dunno.  But I can tell you out here in western BradCo prices are not horrid.  The low price problem seems to be for gas coming out of SE BradCo, and possibly SW Susquehanna Co as well.  It ain't a pretty picture back there methinks.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 07, 2013, 09:41:47 AM
Does your gas go north or down to the Tennesee ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: Rockdale on December 07, 2013, 10:07:58 AM

   Where exactly is that point . Western Bradford County ?
>>>> So far I haven't found exactly where the "Marcellus" point of sale on the Tennessee pipeline is located.  My guess would be that it would be in the area of maximum dry gas production and inadequate transportation which would probably land it in southeastern Bradford/southwestern Susquehanna/northern Wyoming Counties.  On the other side of the coin is where the regionally highest prices are normally found, and the Iroquois pipeline running from Canada under the Saint Lawrence through western New England and NYC seems to fairly consistently play that role.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on December 07, 2013, 10:37:04 AM
Does your gas go north or down to the Tennesee ?

Not 100% certain.  But I think it goes to the Tennessee.  Am pretty sure it does.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 08, 2013, 06:29:33 AM

    Pipeline capacity seems to be the culprit for the low prices in some parts of the NE Marcellus play. This is a tough game for the gascos. It would be nice to get some insight on the biggest problems and solutions to some of this very low price of ng in certain areas.  The fight seems to be over contracted takeaway and then it comes down to a lowball bidding auction for the pipeline capacity that is not under contract.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: macal on December 08, 2013, 07:36:09 AM
   I was astounded and still am that Southwestern was bragging that they were able to buy ng at $1.00 and put it through their contracted pipeline capacity and sell it for triple that price or even more. Its a rough game.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on December 09, 2013, 11:15:04 AM
nice bump today at tgp zone 4 up $0.71 to $3.58

leidy lags at $3.32, millennium is at $3.90, dominion south at $3.65 and tetco m3 is $4.45, up $0.32

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on December 09, 2013, 01:39:25 PM
Monday 09 December 2013   4:34pm  ET

$4.24

Will we get to $5.00 this winter?  Thoughts?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: 77flh on December 09, 2013, 03:45:49 PM
Hell Ya!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: Rockdale on December 09, 2013, 03:46:26 PM
Monday 09 December 2013   4:34pm  ET

$4.24

Will we get to $5.00 this winter?  Thoughts?
>>>> It certainly could happen, but I think the odds are high that either 5 won't be seen, or that price will only be temporary and triggered by some event such as severe weather.  There's still that huge supply which increases everyday, especially as more Marcellus and Utica wells are hooked up.  A big part of the natural gas business, in fact just about the same volume as is used for heating purposes, comes from burning gas to make electricity.  That business is very price sensitive, and most people who study it think that any price over $3.50 for gas tends to send electric utilities back to coal.  In a way, a price a bit over 4 is a sweet spot in terms of competitiveness for Marcellus producers.  Many other natural gas fields need a higher price to make a profit or to just break even, while most Marcellus producers are making decent returns on their investment at that level.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: mohawk70 on December 09, 2013, 05:27:12 PM
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cold-dis-comfort-antarctica-set-record-1358

-135.8

Found on www.drudgereport.com
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00 !!
Post by: mohawk70 on December 10, 2013, 07:24:26 AM
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cold-dis-comfort-antarctica-set-record-1358

-135.8

Found on www.drudgereport.com


2982 comments


[wait ... isn't this SUMMER at the Antarctic?]

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 10, 2013, 07:53:46 AM
Tuesday 10 December 2013   10:47am  ET

$4.26

Few things:

The price is rising so fast I'm having trouble keeping up.

If this continues, where the price is blowing through my 25 cent boundaries so often, I might decide to shift to 33 cent boundaries or even 50 cent boundaries . . on the thread title, I mean.

Does anyone know why this is happening?  I did not see price increases like this coming, I can tell you that.  It's great.  But why? 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 10, 2013, 09:44:20 AM
Tuesday 10 December 2013   10:47am  ET

$4.26

Few things:

The price is rising so fast I'm having trouble keeping up.

If this continues, where the price is blowing through my 25 cent boundaries so often, I might decide to shift to 33 cent boundaries or even 50 cent boundaries . . on the thread title, I mean.

Does anyone know why this is happening?  I did not see price increases like this coming, I can tell you that.  It's great.  But why?


http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/12/10/temps-reach-18-year-low-more-bitter-cold-and-snow-coming/


The future!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 10, 2013, 11:07:49 AM
Tuesday 10 December 2013   10:47am  ET

$4.26

Few things:

The price is rising so fast I'm having trouble keeping up.

If this continues, where the price is blowing through my 25 cent boundaries so often, I might decide to shift to 33 cent boundaries or even 50 cent boundaries . . on the thread title, I mean.

Does anyone know why this is happening?  I did not see price increases like this coming, I can tell you that.  It's great.  But why?

quite simply, it is because you apparently have failed to realize that the nymex is irrelevant to what happens in the northeast.

have you seen the weather in the south? in texas? near the henry hub?

do you realize that little if any gas comes this way from down there? that they have a different market, affected by sometimes different weather than we experience up here?

tgp zone 4 lost 18 cents today, averaging $3.40.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 10, 2013, 11:49:13 AM
Thanks WJ, another issue is that the Nymex is a futures contract, not a physical amount of gas sold for the day. As a futures contract it can move simply based on speculative buying or selling of the contracts.
 

http://www.rbnenergy.com/momentum-trend-following-algorithms-driving-speculative-futures-trading (http://www.rbnenergy.com/momentum-trend-following-algorithms-driving-speculative-futures-trading)
 
"Prices continued higher with the market up now for the 4th consecutive week. Considering the weak close, uncertainty at the back end of the weather forecast and the extended price up move, a rare inside week is considered possible. Five consecutive weeks higher would mark the 17th time that the market ended with exactly that 5 week string. Since 2000, 35 weeks have seen exactly 4 weeks higher. The record consecutive streak higher was 14 in 2008. The CFTC speculative position soared last week in accordance with the price uptick and clearly reveals the momentum trend following algorithms that drive many trading decisions. Although the last two weeks represent a significant increase, the current speculative net long position remains at less than half the historical peak and thus further buying could lead prices even higher. Total combined open interest has actually fallen and stands at just 4.54 million across the complex as of December 3. CME futures open interest increased to 1.31 million contracts as of December 5"


Tuesday 10 December 2013   10:47am  ET

$4.26

Few things:

The price is rising so fast I'm having trouble keeping up.

If this continues, where the price is blowing through my 25 cent boundaries so often, I might decide to shift to 33 cent boundaries or even 50 cent boundaries . . on the thread title, I mean.

Does anyone know why this is happening?  I did not see price increases like this coming, I can tell you that.  It's great.  But why?

quite simply, it is because you apparently have failed to realize that the nymex is irrelevant to what happens in the northeast.

have you seen the weather in the south? in texas? near the henry hub?

do you realize that little if any gas comes this way from down there? that they have a different market, affected by sometimes different weather than we experience up here?

tgp zone 4 lost 18 cents today, averaging $3.40.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 10, 2013, 11:53:17 AM
yes agreed ish, and certainly another reason for recent moves in the nymex is the current storage trend. winter came earlier this year.

there are lots of reasons really, some of which we will never be privy to.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 10, 2013, 12:41:16 PM
That storage trend could bode well for the "injection" season. Might save us from the risk of the maximum storage capacity being approached. Unfortunately you NEPA guys are constrained anyway.
 
Rice Energy has still been getting us around what Nymex closes the trading month at plus a little premium (1073 btu) so far in Washington County . (Might be benefitting from Range not focusing on dry gas so far.)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 10, 2013, 03:26:54 PM
ok, check my thinking here ish.

"That storage trend could bode well for the "injection" season"...if the weather stays cold through 'til then. if the weather warms significantly and rescomm usage drops leaving higher than normal levels of gas in storage in the spring...there will be little to no effect other than the normal spring rebuild of storage numbers.

I think that since this latest rally began immediately after the surprising drawdown was revealed by eia last Thursday, that it is a reasonable conclusion that the high rate of current drawdown is affecting prices currently. traders are a little nervous since supply is down, usage is up, and the winter has been more like a normal one so far. not nervous, sorry, I think that they are seeing this as a buy signal as the future looks to have a stronger market later this winter. (the difference between nymex and physical sales)

we are constrained here in nepa, but our constraints are manifest in your area also, to a lesser degree. your gas could flow through here with sufficient capacity. with the tgp 321 station partially shut in while compression upgrades are being done, it's even worse right now, but when the neup is finally done, there will be an extra bcf of throughput capacity here. it's always darkest before the dawn.

your prices down there are much closer to nymex than ours currently, and a good company finds the best marketing opportunities. up here, some companies were doing very well too, but that changes from time to time. one month one company is up, and the next it's another. (the value of having multiple payers) enjoy your day in the sun, it may fade like the dew on a summer morning. here's hoping that it does not, and that we all may enjoy the fruits of this bountiful good fortune.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 10, 2013, 06:30:42 PM
I agree 100 percent with everything you said in your current and previous posts WJ. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 10, 2013, 06:42:59 PM

  All 11, 000 of them.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 11, 2013, 11:34:51 AM
the nymex is up 8 cents at $4.32. nice gain.

tgp zone4 pricing is down almost 40 cents averaging $3. tough day for sales in nepa, but not bad for hh futures.

hh sales prices are also down today, off almost 9 cents averaging $4.235

many major sales points are averaging lower prices today.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 12, 2013, 10:39:28 AM
the nymex is holding steady at $4.33 today, probably because this weeks storage report showed a much lower drop than last weeks.

tgp zone 4 sales are lower today by 2 cents on average, $2.98.

leidy sales are up 20 cents at $3.17! woot woot.....

tetco m3 sales are lower by over 5 bucks today, averaging $6.09

if anybodys selling at Algonquin, the high sale this morning was 32 bucks an mmbtu.  slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 13, 2013, 08:00:44 AM
Friday 13 December 2013   10:57am  ET

$4.41

Not bad at all for Friday the 13th!!   :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 13, 2013, 09:02:11 AM

  This zone 4 pricing is not to promising.  Cabot was paying Nymex. Not lately
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 13, 2013, 10:52:54 AM
Friday the 13th hasn't been a good one for gas sales, maybe if the cold hadn't moderated....

tgpz4 is down over 12 cents to $2.86. December royalties in the northeast are looking to take another hit.

leidy is back down to $3.11

all of the Transco and tetco points lost, some of them big.

Bloomberg currently has the nymex at $4.37 for a drop of 4 cents in futures. hh sales are running at $4.35.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 13, 2013, 11:16:23 AM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/175126#.UqtcNSjxQyF

Snow.

Israel also has shale gas, offshore.



http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Jerusalem-Municipality-Second-storm-3-times-size-of-last-one-forecast-to-hit-capital-in-hours-334927
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 13, 2013, 11:21:27 AM
Cairo.   Snow.


Egypt.


http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-snow-israel-egypt-20131213,0,1691393.story#axzz2nMzV6vMp

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 13, 2013, 03:16:59 PM
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/13/over-2000-cold-and-snow-records-set-in-the-usa-this-past-week/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 13, 2013, 04:43:43 PM
http://www.space.com/23934-weak-solar-cycle-space-weather.html


no sun spots = temps 20º below normal ...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 14, 2013, 06:05:26 AM

   I would be interested to learn the business of buying and selling gas. Through the eyes of a trader, buyer and seller. What an interesting game. Most gas is pre sold under long or short term contracts and then I guess bids are taken by the pipelines or the middle men to buy the gas is not pre sold.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 14, 2013, 09:38:05 AM
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2013/12/snowburst_lake_effect_shifting_south_winter_storm_watch_for_the_weekend.html#incart_m-rpt-2
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 15, 2013, 04:58:16 PM
Sunday 15 December 2013   7:57pm  ET

$4.25

NYMEX is open and trading at this hour.  We are down.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 16, 2013, 01:02:48 PM
with the nymex still down ($4.26) off of its recent highs during the cold snap, tgpz4 sales had a nice bounce of 27 cents today, the leidy up 17 cents.

all other regional sales points were down today with the moderating temps likely responsible.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 17, 2013, 08:05:20 AM
Tuesday 17 December 2013   10:59am  ET

$4.21

Here's the thing:  Will we hold $4.00 during the upcoming warm weather?

The market appears already to be anticipating Christmas week weather, forecast to be warm.  Funny, looking out there right now you'd think a white Christmas is in the bag.  Maybe not.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 17, 2013, 08:14:14 AM
snow doesnt sell gas, cold does.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 17, 2013, 11:50:40 AM
with the nymex up 3 cents at $4.31, all sales points were down this morning except a few in the Marcellus region.

leidy is up 2 cents, dominion south 10, millennium is up 3 cents and the brightest star is tgpz4, which is up 12 cents at $3.25

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 18, 2013, 02:46:54 AM
Wednesday 18 December 2013   5:44am  ET

$4.32

It's heartening to see this market strength.  Just checked AccuWeather.  It's possible traders are looking beyond the very warm weather which will come our way these next several days (I expect most of the snow to be gone by Monday).  Starting Christmas Eve, and going forward from there, things will cool down a bit, but cold like we have been seeing of late is not forecast.  Still, the sort of moderate cold anticipated might be good enough, for the NG traders, to maintain current price levels.

I didn't expect the price to hold up this well.  Glad I was wrong, at least so far.   ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on December 18, 2013, 04:51:37 AM
Wednesday 18 December 2013   5:44am  ET

$4.32

It's heartening to see this market strength.  Just checked AccuWeather.  It's possible traders are looking beyond the very warm weather which will come our way these next several days (I expect most of the snow to be gone by Monday).  Starting Christmas Eve, and going forward from there, things will cool down a bit, but cold like we have been seeing of late is not forecast.  Still, the sort of moderate cold anticipated might be good enough, for the NG traders, to maintain current price levels.

I didn't expect the price to hold up this well.  Glad I was wrong, at least so far.   ;)


Don't spend it all in one place ...HOWEVER:

http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2013/12/low-solar-activity-cycle-and.html
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on December 18, 2013, 11:08:23 AM
Propane inventories took another relatively big drop last week, with a corresponding rise in wholesale prices.

Powerburn and First Enercast both predicting tomorrow's ng withdrawal at around 250bcf. If people were paying attention that wouldn't be a surprise, but HH should break $4.50 easy.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 18, 2013, 11:58:03 AM

  $4.50 is the sweet spot. Perfect pricing.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on December 18, 2013, 12:05:37 PM
Propane inventories took another relatively big drop last week, with a corresponding rise in wholesale prices.

Powerburn and First Enercast both predicting tomorrow's ng withdrawal at around 250bcf. If people were paying attention that wouldn't be a surprise, but HH should break $4.50 easy.
>>>> The news about the propane inventory might be explained in part by the corn harvest this fall.  There's been articles about the record usage of propane in major corn producing regions.  The crop was the biggest in volume in history, and much of it came out of the fields sopping wet because of a wetter than normal growing season in many areas.  And since propane is by far the most common fuel to dry corn down to the desired moisture content, there was a lot more propane sold than normal.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 18, 2013, 01:43:24 PM
Unfortunately powerburn last updated on the 11'th. Here is hoping 250, but I think it will be a short pop to the upside, since traders might be looking forward after they take their profit.

I also wonder if producers have been putting more hedges on as prices have gone up so much further supporting futures. Prices  could weaken. Just idle speculation.

Great propane information. Thanks.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on December 18, 2013, 02:50:58 PM
Unfortunately powerburn last updated on the 11th....
There's a note saying that storage projections were last updated Dec. 11, but they changed sometime today. The upcoming number was -252 when I wrote at 2PM, but shows -241 right now.

I've read a variety of articles about the corn drying. Includes notes on governors declaring states of emergency to change the rules governing transportation in an effort to get more propane in. Exports are a big factor as well.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 19, 2013, 07:11:53 AM
Thursday 19 December 2013   10:07am  ET

$4.34

Today we enter into the mini warm snap.  Price is holding up very well considering.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on December 19, 2013, 07:44:16 AM
EIA reports withdrawal from storage of 285 Bcf. http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html Total level is dropping close to the five year low for this date.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 19, 2013, 08:45:21 AM

  Nymex. $4.44 . Almost there.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 19, 2013, 08:52:49 AM
Thanks Ruby_99, I am glad that the Powerburn Blog is still being updated. The information that they provide is great.  Over the time since they started it has been one of my daily reads.
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 19, 2013, 04:44:58 PM
 Thursday 19 December 2013   7:39pm  ET

$4.46

We approach the magical $4.50 mark despite this warm weather.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 20, 2013, 02:17:44 PM
prices at tgpz4 fell today by $1.53, averaging $1.70/mmbtu

dominion south fell to $3.16, millennium to $3.20 and the leidy fell to $2.18.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 20, 2013, 02:22:27 PM

  I hope they weren't selling my gas at that price. Ouch
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 20, 2013, 02:29:07 PM
the volume of gas sold today was very high, almost 3 times normal.

I'd say that some of everybodys gas in eastern bradford and southern susq counties went for that price today.

it wasn't too long ago that the price at zone4 was under $0.90.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 20, 2013, 02:46:42 PM

 Thanks for sharing this data with us . Are you a trader now ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 20, 2013, 03:23:39 PM
Thanks WJ.  I appreciate the reality check your numbers give.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 20, 2013, 05:44:09 PM
ish...are you slipping?

I thought sure you'd bust me on the triple volume remark.

the increased volume sold today is because of the weekend usage.

still, lots more gas sold at low prices which will bring down royalties in nepa.

and tgpz4 pricing is particularly of interest to those with leases containing a price proxy clause based on it. the fvg lease for one.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 20, 2013, 06:37:57 PM
 slaplaugh  Guess I am slipping. No clue about ongoing volume. Sorry about prices.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aktony on December 20, 2013, 11:25:47 PM



ish...are you slipping?

I thought sure you'd bust me on the triple volume remark.

the increased volume sold today is because of the weekend usage.

still, lots more gas sold at low prices which will bring down royalties in nepa.

and tgpz4 pricing is particularly of interest to those with leases containing a price proxy clause based on it. the fvg lease for one.

wj




The wording of the FVG lease is:
   "In the event Lessee elects to sell gas produced from the Leasehold to an affiliated party,   then for purposes of computing royalty hereunder, the net proceeds after taxes shall be at least equivalent to the price paid for as entering the Tennessee Gas Pipeline ('TGP') in North East Pennsylvania under a Zone 4 designation."


Are there any examples of companies other than Chesapeake which sell gas to an affiliated party?







Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on December 21, 2013, 05:49:37 AM
Are there any examples of companies other than Chesapeake which sell gas to an affiliated party?

as far as I know tony, they all do.

the best way to find out for certain though is to ask your company.

wj

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on December 22, 2013, 04:56:26 PM
at 19:18:08 bloomberg has the nymex at $4.52.

maybe tomorrow we can get back to 3 bucks in nepa.  slaplaugh

it's still pretty cold down south according to mr. plainfield.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on December 22, 2013, 07:29:05 PM

  It kinda sucks if people get paid sub $3 and then get hit $0.80 for post production.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Steve-O on December 22, 2013, 07:56:50 PM
at 19:18:08 bloomberg has the nymex at $4.52.

maybe tomorrow we can get back to 3 bucks in nepa.  slaplaugh

it's still pretty cold down south according to mr. plainfield.

wj


PlainVIEW
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Walnut on December 23, 2013, 05:30:07 AM
Natural Gas 4.52 +0.11  \ crazy  handclap
8:29 am; 12/23/2013
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 23, 2013, 07:02:04 AM
Well, guys, first of all thanks for the help and support.  I didn't witness the $4.50+ price personally (it's at $4.49 now) but I'm gonna change the title anyway based on the abundance of evidence.

I never saw this move coming and have no idea why the price is so strong.  I thought the recent very warm weather (obvious evidence of global warming  slaplaugh) in key markets might drive the price down!   ::)

However, since some reason must be found, I'm just gonna call this a "Santa Claus rally"!!    :D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Steve-O on December 23, 2013, 07:21:45 AM
Well, guys, first of all thanks for the help and support.  I didn't witness the $4.50+ price personally (it's at $4.49 now) but I'm gonna change the title anyway based on the abundance of evidence.

I never saw this move coming and have no idea why the price is so strong.  I thought the recent very warm weather (obvious evidence of global warming  slaplaugh) in key markets might drive the price down!   ::)

However, since some reason must be found, I'm just gonna call this a "Santa Claus rally"!!    :D
It's finally becoming very clear to investors that NG is the way of the 21st century.  The locomotive is gaining steam and speed.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: zeus4513 on December 23, 2013, 07:51:55 AM
Sam,  That appears all well and good except for what WJ is saying about pipeline capacity from Bradford County.  It seems because of the lack of pipeline capacity from our area that we are being cheated out of our royalties.  Are there any plans in the works to increase capacity from our area.  It seems like that would be the only way to increase the royalties by giving the gas drillers a choice on who to sell the gas to.  It looks like that is the only way us landowners will get competitive prices on our gas.  It will probably take years to get more capacity out of Bradford.  Anyone know what is going on with that?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Steve-O on December 23, 2013, 08:14:45 AM
I'm sure negotiating pipeline ROW is becoming more and more difficult as parcel owners would rather not have pipeline traverse their property and/or they are unable to come to a financial agreement with the pipeline folks.  We must take the good with the bad if this thing is going to get done.   Many of us, the informed among us, are not the lessors of yesteryear.  so yeah, we're smarter and better informed but.....I think this inevitably slows things down.  Don't get me wrong, the penny pinching industry folks have to realize we are not mushrooms any longer.  And for crying out loud, I am growing weary of theses guys screaming about the economy; they are making record profits.

Pipelines are springing up all around us in NE Susq.   I was unaware that Bradford was not experiencing this as well.   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Steve-O on December 23, 2013, 08:22:17 AM
And yeah...I am the optimistic sort.  WJ and I sort of cancel each other out....hahah

No doubt he will post a non-Christmas-like response to this post.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: zeus4513 on December 23, 2013, 08:43:41 AM
Sam, Thanks.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 23, 2013, 11:22:29 AM
I just posted an article:

http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,21686.0.html (http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,21686.0.html)

Here is a pull quote from that article:

"Futures extended the rally today, rising as high as $4.532, the highest intraday price since July 21, 2011."

That more than confirms posts of contributors here earlier today.  It's also interesting from an historical perspective.  Prices today reached levels not seen in the last twenty-nine months!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on December 23, 2013, 11:37:21 AM
Sam,  That appears all well and good except for what WJ is saying about pipeline capacity from Bradford County.  It seems because of the lack of pipeline capacity from our area that we are being cheated out of our royalties.  Are there any plans in the works to increase capacity from our area.  It seems like that would be the only way to increase the royalties by giving the gas drillers a choice on who to sell the gas to.  It looks like that is the only way us landowners will get competitive prices on our gas.  It will probably take years to get more capacity out of Bradford.  Anyone know what is going on with that?

how is anyone being cheated out of anything if their royalties are based on accurate sales prices? that was the purpose of posting those prices here, so that landowners could more completely understand the picture.

as far as increased takeaway, kinder morgan completed a new tgp line this summer which, when it is finally up and running will increase takeaway at tgpz4 by around a bcf/d. I have been watching the smowmelt on the pipeline route. the snow melts faster over a pipeline that is flowing gas. so far, only the original line is flowing enough to melt snow, but a week or so ago I posted a bentek notice that flow would be reduced while km upgraded compression in Susquehanna county. that is another step toward increased capacity in tgpz4, and hopefully better prices.

today prices at tgpz4 gained $1.59, averaging $3.30.

since there are also contracts which are more than likely priced higher than spot prices, we might well see prices for December close to 4 bucks. that all depends on the luck and skill of the guys who market for your individual producer(s).

and no sam, there isn't a santa clause in the gas business. it's just business. naughty or nice...just business.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: zeus4513 on December 23, 2013, 12:36:51 PM
Thanks WJ,  You seem the know what is really going on around SE Bradford.  Thanks for the info!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: duffy on December 23, 2013, 01:58:22 PM
Apparently compression is back on in Susquehanna Co. There were a bunch of early drilled  western Susquehanna  wells that were shutin for about a month.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 24, 2013, 04:32:09 AM
 Christmas Eve 2013   7:29am  ET

$4.46
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: flyfisher on December 24, 2013, 05:00:28 AM

Thank you for all of the updates and information this year...Merry Christmas  & a great New Year to everyone...Cheers!!!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: macal on December 24, 2013, 08:04:31 AM

  Got my Christmas present. Nat Gas hits $4.50.  Glad to see it. Perfect pricing. Hope it holds for a while.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on December 24, 2013, 10:55:05 AM
nymex pricing is more like a wish list for se bradco and susq county.

here's your real Christmas present.

tgpz4 is down 41 cents today at $2.88 average. the low price was $2.75

and just because it's Christmas, you get 2 days worth sold at that price.

ho ho ho

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: duffy on December 24, 2013, 03:56:13 PM
But i got an extra day to sifhn up for the bronze plan that barrack signed up for, i'm feeling blessed  slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on December 24, 2013, 04:08:37 PM
tell ya what duff.

i'll bring the cider, you bring the sled, i'll meet ya on the back hill and we can slalom around the cow pies.

in an hour or so, if we survive, we'll both feel sloshed blessed!

merry Christmas buddy, (no, not you buddy, this buddy)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 26, 2013, 04:25:11 AM
 Boxing Day 2013   7:22am  ET

$4.43

Price has been hanging in this region since hitting the recent high water mark above $4.51.  Trading is ongoing as I write this.

ETA

A hat tip to Canadian forum members on your holiday today.   :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 26, 2013, 09:37:18 AM
 Boxing Day 2013   12:36pm  ET

$4.45

Definitely feeling support in this "mid four forties" region today.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Gashole on December 26, 2013, 02:28:55 PM
TGP-Z4 Marcellus was up .40 for average of $3.29
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 27, 2013, 05:22:00 AM
 Friday 27 December 2013   8:18am  ET

$4.37

We are down.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: bellbucci on December 27, 2013, 10:41:55 AM
Fairly strong withdrawal from NG storage announced yesterday, again ending close to the 5yr low. http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Wholesale propane prices continue to rise, with PA prices up 20% over 5 weeks ago. Propane storage continues to fall, well below the five year low. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PWR_dpgal_w.htm
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 30, 2013, 06:28:38 AM
 Monday 30 December 2013   9:24am  ET

$4.46

Price strength no shock considering below zero temperatures forecast for later this week.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 31, 2013, 06:18:18 AM
The cold weather reported here:

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20131230/GPG0101/312300134/ (http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20131230/GPG0101/312300134/)

is heading east and should influence NG consumption going forward.

Right now, here where I live, the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.  But in pipelines all around here, the NG is flowing!!   handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on December 31, 2013, 11:01:54 AM
 New Year's Eve 2013   2:03pm  ET

$4.26

Price falling significantly regardless cold weather forecast.

Why?  Dunno
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on December 31, 2013, 11:46:02 AM
 New Year's Eve 2013   2:43pm  ET

$4.23

Price is collapsing heading into 2014!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Dogbone on December 31, 2013, 12:59:55 PM
Not surprising, at least to me.  A little cold weather isn't going to inflate the price with such a glut of natural gas and seemingly endless reserves yet to be taken.  Not just in the U.S., but around the world.   ::)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on December 31, 2013, 02:36:38 PM
This is a pretty large 1 day move. I wonder if there was a weather forecast for the next few weeks on out which indicates warmer than average temperatures? 

Since you are quoting Nymex futures, if there has been some price support by speculators, is it possible that the release of the Ohio production numbers have given more of an indication just how large Utica production is going to quickly be .
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Gashole on December 31, 2013, 04:23:50 PM
TGP Zone 4 was down $1.56 to average $1.84, looks like its going to be a small check next month.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 01, 2014, 03:40:35 AM
 New Year's Day 2014   6:39am  ET

$4.23

So we begin a new year at a pretty decent price, and with this as news for some of our customers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-01/new-year-storm-to-dump-foot-of-snow-from-nyc-to-boston.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-01/new-year-storm-to-dump-foot-of-snow-from-nyc-to-boston.html)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 02, 2014, 05:07:00 AM
I don't believe watching weather forecasts is going to be of much use unless you think you can make money trading natural gas futures contracts.  As far as what land owners in the Appalachian Basin can expect as the basis for their royalties, it's the local price at the various sales points within the Marcellus region which determines that figure, not the nationally posted futures or the spot price at Henry Hub.  Unfortunately because of lack of demand and lack of transportation Marcellus gas is fairly consistently the cheapest natural gas to be found anywhere in the USA.  All subject to change of course if we could see better markets with the conversion of so many coal burning electric utility plants to gas and the opening for business of outlets for export of LNG. Cabot has a contract to supply 350 million cubic feet of LNG a day to Japan through Cove Point, Md. starting in 2017, so I would assume that's when Cove Point will be operational.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 02, 2014, 06:04:50 AM
 2 January 2014   8:56am  ET

$4.29

Checking AccuWeather, the forecast for our major market regions, following the arctic weather now virtually upon us, is for weather at least no colder than average . . and perhaps even a bit warmer.  In the face of that, the price support we witness this morning is encouraging.   :)

ETA

FWIW, academics, intellectuals, and other "experts" have studied the link between weather and the NYMEX price of NG ad nauseam.  Here is just one such study:

http://www.weatherinsight.com/marketing/news/WxI%20Weather%20Nat%20Gas%20Prices%20Linked.pdf (http://www.weatherinsight.com/marketing/news/WxI%20Weather%20Nat%20Gas%20Prices%20Linked.pdf)

Here are many more:

https://www.google.com/search?q=impact+of+weather+on+natural+gas+price&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS374US375&oq=impact+of+weather+on+natural+gas+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.14692j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 (https://www.google.com/search?q=impact+of+weather+on+natural+gas+price&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS374US375&oq=impact+of+weather+on+natural+gas+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.14692j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8)

I pretty much went to the school that taught you can prove anything you want with a study.  So feel free to make of all those above academic opinions whatever you want and I'm good with it.

I always go with my gut, and my gut says when weather is colder we sell more gas, and that's good.  Same thing with stinking hot weather in summer.  I will make this one concession, though, to the academics:

My gut also says deviation from expectations matters.  So when temperatures deviate a lot from normal, regardless time of year, in a way that creates larger demand for our NG, then NYMEX NG price reacts and goes up.

As for relationship to our checks, I agree with remarks posted here by wj a while back.  NYMEX price increases do not necessarily presage more money for us.  However, my personal experience has reflected some measure of connection between NYMEX and my sale price.  Suffice it to say when NYMEX goes up I see that as a good thing, and when it goes down I'm not as happy.   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 02, 2014, 06:32:12 AM

   Cabot $3.23  November 2013. Also Cabot has more than half their production for 2014 sold for around $4.12
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 02, 2014, 06:50:10 AM

   Cabot $3.23  November 2013. Also Cabot has more than half their production for 2014 sold for around $4.12
>>>> I would take Cabot's action to imply that they don't expect a big increase from the current range of prices or they wouldn't have locked in at $4.12 for half of their 2014 production.  Cabot is an extremely savvy company in all respects, and with current production volume of around 1.5 billion cubic feet per day in Susquehanna County they are probably setting the pricing expectations for their peer group in the Marcellus.  From all accounts Cabot has the lowest or near the lowest break even cost in the dry Marcellus shale gas region.  Different analysts come up with different numbers, but the consensus of those following Cabot and the other gas companies is that Cabot can make a profit as long as natural gas doesn't fall below 1 to 2 dollars, an extremely low figure which I think we are going to stay above in the national futures market.  What could gum up the works for Cabot would be if they didn't have the capacity to transport and had to sell at low regional prices for stranded production, but they seem to have that angle covered, also.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 02, 2014, 07:03:25 AM

  Guaranteed takeaway is so important to the producers. When they have to go to the traders on the TGP Zone 4 it seems to be a bidding war. Low price wins. Statoil ?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 02, 2014, 07:51:48 AM
  Cabot is probably grossing $4, 000, 000 a day on their 1, 500, 000, 000 cubic feet per day.   So they are in a real positive cash flow position if it cost them $6, 000, 000 to complete one horizontal. But the long term profits could be 300 to 400 %. Maybe more depending on price and EUR's.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 02, 2014, 12:51:35 PM
 2 January 2014   3:48pm  ET

$4.32
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 03, 2014, 05:41:39 AM
 Friday 3 January 2014   8:40am  ET

$4.28

Commencing roughly a week from now, weather is forecast to become much more moderate.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 03, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
 Friday 3 January 2014   5:07pm  ET

$4.32

Also, just now, has come this news about spot NG prices:

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/houston/spot-natural-gas-prices-in-us-northeast-fall-21029030 (http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/houston/spot-natural-gas-prices-in-us-northeast-fall-21029030)

as the impact of forecast for warmer weather is felt.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 03, 2014, 02:31:08 PM
If only landowners had the problem of this drop........ They would be smiling to the bank!

"Spot natural gas prices in US Northeast fall sharply"

Houston (Platts)--3Jan2014/419 pm EST/2119 GMT


Some spot natural gas prices in the US Northeast fell $24/MMBtu in trading Friday as forecasts called for above-normal temperatures following a winter storm that hit the region late Thursday.

Prices at the Iroquois Gas Transmission, Zone 2 sank $24 for an average in the lower $10.90s/MMBtu, with Iroquois, receipts down $22.50 to average in the lower $10.30s/MMBtu.

Tennessee Gas Pipe Line zone 6-200 leg fell $19 for an average in the lower $16.00s/MMBtu, after that point reached a multi-year high in early trading on Thursday.



Friday 3 January 2014   5:07pm  ET

$4.32

Also, just now, has come this news about spot NG prices:

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/houston/spot-natural-gas-prices-in-us-northeast-fall-21029030 (http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/houston/spot-natural-gas-prices-in-us-northeast-fall-21029030)

as the impact of forecast for warmer weather is felt.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 04, 2014, 06:53:32 AM
 Saturday 4 January 2014   9:51am  ET

$4.30
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: 77flh on January 04, 2014, 07:08:42 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/01/04/polar-vortex-to-blast-frigid-air-over-much-us/

Polar vortex!  You never know what the weather will bring.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 06, 2014, 03:26:24 AM
 Monday 6 January 2014   6:24am  ET

$4.37

Up a bit.  A reaction to this?:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/-polar-pig-threatens-coldest-u-s-weather-in-two-decades.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/-polar-pig-threatens-coldest-u-s-weather-in-two-decades.html)

Dunno
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 07, 2014, 08:17:07 AM
 Tuesday 7 January 2014  11:11am  ET

$4.36

Price exhibiting remarkable resilience given very warm weather ahead.   handclap


ETA

Just saw this.  Here is more:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-07/speculators-cut-natural-gas-wager-on-fading-polar-blast-energy.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-07/speculators-cut-natural-gas-wager-on-fading-polar-blast-energy.html)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 07, 2014, 11:52:15 AM
back in pa. where most of our minerals are located....

tgpz4 Marcellus jumped $1.35 today, for an average price of $4.10, and a high price of $4.30. volume today was heavy, with more than double the norm being bought. you can tell that it's cold in the northeast by those numbers. freeze new yorkers...freeze! (city)

the big question will be how hard this cold wave will drag down storage numbers on Thursday. I'm thinking we may go under the 5 yr. range, and hopefully stay there through winter.

there's gonna be lots of freeze offs with these temps too, taking wells out of production and straining supply for a few days.

all good for pricing.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: bellbucci on January 07, 2014, 04:47:37 PM
The report this Thursday will show storage numbers as of Friday the 3rd. The next week's report will be as of Friday the tenth.

Both withdrawal figures should be big, but the biggest is likely to be the tenth.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 07, 2014, 05:14:18 PM
I left that dangler for ish to bust me on since he's such a stickler for details and all. didn't figure that you'd pick it up.

but to be accurate, I didn't say which Thursday.

hopefully we go under, and stay under the 5 yr range after this week. and hopefully there is a lot more cold and wind where this blast came from. with the rig count down, we might enjoy a year or 2 of decent prices until the industry shoots itself in the foot again.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 07, 2014, 05:31:11 PM
Playing with me Wj. Hopefully everybody is staying warm. Maybe we will get lucky and set a new 5 year low. I think it is a testament to the drillers that prices have not hit $5.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 07, 2014, 05:34:58 PM
$5?

2 of the Transco points hit $95 this week ish.

and hey! how dull your life would be if I didn't mess with ya a little now and then...hmmm?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 07, 2014, 05:50:16 PM
$95, ouch. I forget which one, but 1 of the utilities indicated they were going to let their long term Nat gas supply contracts expire, and buy short term. Brave move which could prove costly.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 08, 2014, 03:58:55 AM
 Wednesday 8 January 2014  6:57am  ET

$4.36

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Steve-O on January 08, 2014, 07:28:44 AM
worth a double post...

http://www.magnetmail.net/actions/email_web_version.cfm?recipient_id=1107527324&message_id=3263100&user_id=IP4192&group_id=1158783&jobid=16276825
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 08, 2014, 07:37:36 AM

  Will this affect royalties or do these prices escalate after the gas companies sell to the pipeline companies.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 08, 2014, 07:57:28 AM

  Will this affect royalties or do these prices escalate after the gas companies sell to the pipeline companies.

Well, first of all, those spot prices have me dreaming again about my first yacht!   slaplaugh

But, seriously, it's only a dream.  I think those prices will impact us only in the most gentle, general, way.  It's like with NYMEX:  all it really does is point the way to a trend.  And for some landowners with pipeline constraints, it might not even do that.

There are a great many NG prices, all different, all dependent on location, pipeline, weather locally, other supply and demand considerations locally, and so much more.

I think my checks will fatten a little, for a short while anyway, based on this recent cold weather.  There's no guarantee of that, though it did happen last winter.  But relationship to spot?  I doubt it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 08, 2014, 09:19:15 AM
"Quotes for Tuesday gas on Transco-Leidy rose 71 cents to $2.77"


  Will this affect royalties or do these prices escalate after the gas companies sell to the pipeline companies.

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 08, 2014, 09:41:04 AM

  Thanks Ish.  Brutal.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 08, 2014, 11:42:19 AM

  Will this affect royalties or do these prices escalate after the gas companies sell to the pipeline companies.
>>>> I don't think that the gas producers sell their product to the pipeline companies in most cases.  The pipeline companies for the most part make their money by charging for a service, but they don't take possession of the product they are transporting.  It's quite perplexing to read about sales in the production region on January 6 at various points in the 3 to 4 dollar range when the exact same gas is selling at the same day for 25 to 30 times as much at points just outside New York City which are only a few hours away by car.  And I think these kind of situations, as few as they might be, show how profitable it could be to have storage facilities full of gas at just the right time, along with the capacity to get it to the point of highest price.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 08, 2014, 03:20:32 PM
 Wednesday 8 January 2014  evening

$4.19

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 09, 2014, 04:45:28 AM
 Thursday 9 January 2014  7:40am  ET

$4.17

Down a bit more.  Wonder how low we will go as warm weather unfreezes wells and lowers demand.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 09, 2014, 11:30:31 AM
 Thursday 9 January 2014  2:27pm  ET

$4.04
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on January 10, 2014, 04:52:44 AM
 Friday 10 January 2014  7:50am  ET

$3.99
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.00
Post by: shinobi on January 10, 2014, 02:19:03 PM
 Friday 10 January 2014  5:12pm  ET

$4.08

A nice outcome for today it seems to me.  We appear to have bounced off that $4.00 mark heading in an upward direction.  I though we would continue lower, so I was wrong as usual.  If we can hang onto four bucks in the face of this warmer weather, well, things could be worse.   ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 13, 2014, 12:39:10 PM
 Monday 13 January 2014  3:36pm  ET

$4.29

 :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 14, 2014, 07:04:09 AM

  Just wondering if there is a way for landowners to hedge their own royalties.  Similar to way the gascos do it.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 14, 2014, 08:19:23 AM

  Just wondering if there is a way for landowners to hedge their own royalties.  Similar to way the gascos do it.
>>>> I would suppose that if a land owner had the available money and the inclination to take a gamble, they could always buy natural gas futures contracts in the hopes that gas would over time get more expensive which would profit anyone going long.  There's a good case for soft prices in the short run given the various factors, but long term things might change for the better.  Exports as LNG could make a difference, and the Cheniere plant on the Louisiana Gulf Coast is supposed to be open for business in late 2015.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: mohawk70 on January 14, 2014, 10:18:57 AM
Was a little surprised the other day when the president of Cheniere showed up on Jim Cramer's program "Mad Money".

http://www.cramers-mad-money.com/category/mad-money-stock-picks/

Hmmmmm.

google it

also google cramer's credibility


Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 14, 2014, 10:35:08 AM

  Cramer has been advocating for nat gas for years. A True Believer.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 14, 2014, 12:40:14 PM
 Tuesday 14 January 2014  3:37pm  ET

$4.37

 Market is displaying real strength.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 14, 2014, 02:05:56 PM
"2 Ways to Short Natural Gas with ETFs"
 
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/108762/2-Ways-to-Short-Natural-Gas-with-ETFs (http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/108762/2-Ways-to-Short-Natural-Gas-with-ETFs)
 
A true hedge would limit your losses in a manner that your production from the well would counteract  the results of the hedge. You would break even, less the cost of your hedge. Consider it an insurance payment.

Problem is that your wells might naturally decline prematurely, get choked by the operator or be shut in. No income from the Natural Gas to offset cost of hedge.


  Just wondering if there is a way for landowners to hedge their own royalties.  Similar to way the gascos do it.
>>>> I would suppose that if a land owner had the available money and the inclination to take a gamble, they could always buy natural gas futures contracts in the hopes that gas would over time get more expensive which would profit anyone going long.  There's a good case for soft prices in the short run given the various factors, but long term things might change for the better.  Exports as LNG could make a difference, and the Cheniere plant on the Louisiana Gulf Coast is supposed to be open for business in late 2015.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 15, 2014, 04:50:51 AM
 Wednesday 15 January 2014  7:47am  ET

$4.40
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 16, 2014, 05:57:55 AM
 Thursday 16 January 2014  8:54am  ET

$4.48

I don't know what lies behind this price strength but it certainly is sweet and is, for me, unanticipated.  The way things are going we could crack $4.50!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 16, 2014, 09:19:27 AM

  Hopefully nat gas can stay north of $4 for an extended period of time and this Nymex price from Louisiana will reflect net price in the NE Marcellus.  I don't think that is the case presently.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 09:45:05 AM
it's pretty simple really.

the storage report that came out this morning shows a significant drop to under the 5 year average.

also, according to baker hughes, the gas directed rig count as of dec., 30 2013 was 374, down 54% from the peak in 2012.

in short, a lot of gas has been burned this winter so far, and there aren't enough rigs working gas to make up the shortfall should this winter continue to be cold...buyers are a little nervous at this point.

we aren't out of the woods yet, but the "glut" of gas is fading.

remember, shale wells decline. if sufficient wells to make up for those declines aren't put online in time, shortages develop quickly in cold weather. without enough rigs drilling early enough to allow for the time lag to production, shortfalls will occur.

this is all part of the normal cycle of natural gas drilling and pricing.

we need more brutally cold weather this winter to seal higher prices next year. maybe $6? and then, drilling will take off again.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 16, 2014, 10:40:04 AM
I hope you are right!

Unfortunately we are still filling pipelines as fast as capacity becomes available. My bet is we go below $4 fairly quickly once there is any indication that the weather related demand has changed. Hopefully we will get a nice cold ending to Winter, and a Spring like last year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1949421-marcellus-shale-a-20-bcf-per-day-natural-gas-tsunami (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1949421-marcellus-shale-a-20-bcf-per-day-natural-gas-tsunami)  Zeits
 
"Marcellus Shale: A 20 Bcf Per Day Natural Gas Tsunami"
 
"............Forecasts may yet again prove to be hopelessly behind the actual growth curve. The Marcellus may surpass 14 Bcf/d production level (ex-legacy) already during the second half of this year. Moreover, a case can be made that the Northeast Region may sustain its very steep, essentially straight-line growth trajectory for another several years, adding 2.5-3.0 Bcf/d of incremental production every year......."

 

it's pretty simple really.

the storage report that came out this morning shows a significant drop to under the 5 year average.

also, according to baker hughes, the gas directed rig count as of dec., 30 2013 was 374, down 54% from the peak in 2012.

in short, a lot of gas has been burned this winter so far, and there aren't enough rigs working gas to make up the shortfall should this winter continue to be cold...buyers are a little nervous at this point.

we aren't out of the woods yet, but the "glut" of gas is fading.

remember, shale wells decline. if sufficient wells to make up for those declines aren't put online in time, shortages develop quickly in cold weather. without enough rigs drilling early enough to allow for the time lag to production, shortfalls will occur.

this is all part of the normal cycle of natural gas drilling and pricing.

we need more brutally cold weather this winter to seal higher prices next year. maybe $6? and then, drilling will take off again.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 16, 2014, 10:59:53 AM
One of the points that the EIA website has been making in recent months is that the Baker Hughes rig counts and similar measurements are increasingly less important in predicting production volumes than they have been in the past, especially when it comes to shale oil and gas.  That's due to the fact that the average production per well is increasing, and that the number of days needed to drill the average well has been decreasing.  You can see the effect in the Marcellus where there are now about half as many drilling rigs at work as at the peak several years ago, yet the new production per month has not fallen.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 11:27:41 AM
I hope you are right!

Unfortunately we are still filling pipelines as fast as capacity becomes available.
[/size]
[/quote]

that has always and will always be true ish.

but some of what flows through those lines is gas from storage. gas is taken from storage when production falls short of demand. in the last report period there was a 287 bcf withdrawal, 287bcf more used, than produced. that gas has to be replaced during the injection season so that stocks will be adequate for next winters supply with a comfortable cushion.

production alone, will never supply all of the gas needed during the winter months. it is these seasonal variations which drive prices. look at last springs prices. the spike was caused by the extended withdrawals during the colder than normal march and early april weather, and that was just a small dip below the 5 yr average. this dip is much bigger.

I'm hoping for additional cold weather to deplete storage to under 1.5 tcf this year, maybe even close to a tcf. a tcf, though an incredible amount of gas, would only be enough for 4 weeks at the rate of withdrawal just reported.

but...we need more cold weather to get that done.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 11:33:30 AM
blah blah blah

you'd do better if you started thinking a bit and not taking everything you read as the gospel truth.

on second thought, your thought processes are probably already maxxed out...so carry on.  slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 16, 2014, 11:43:13 AM
blah blah blah

you'd do better if you started thinking a bit and not taking everything you read as the gospel truth.

on second thought, your thought processes are probably already maxxed out...so carry on.  slaplaugh

wj
>>>> You're right as always, WJ. You can't read what anyone says and take it as Gospel.  Which includes people who described Southwestern Energy as a "pee pants" company so incapable of functioning that they couldn't fill a garden hose with their production.  I would think that the slaplaugh is on you.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 16, 2014, 11:54:51 AM
In support of WJ, he was essentially right in his analysis of Southwestern from what I took away.
 
My takeaway was; and it is being played out still, that they are cheap company, not giving good leases to landowners. They still are squeezing landowners. Rock, do you know differently?
 
Wj,
do you have any indication that freeze offs of wells might have constrained production after the arctic blast? If so, the next storage report might be a little better than expected.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 12:02:10 PM
You're right as always, WJ. You can't read what anyone says and take it as Gospel.  Which includes people who described Southwestern Energy as a "pee pants" company so incapable of functioning that they couldn't fill a garden hose with their production.  I would think that the slaplaugh is on you.

once again your talent for misquoting and attempting to rewrite history brings you down to a pitiful level of credibility.

I never questioned swn's production abilities. the "pee pants", actually "whiney pee pants" comments regarding swn were in reference to their leasing practices. they consistently suppressed bonus prices and royalty %'s on acreage that they leased by telling people such things as "Chesapeake isn't going to drill, they'll just flip your lease to us". they brag about their low royalty burden and leasing costs...good for mineral owners? nah, just good for investors and the company bottom line. buncha whiney pee pants losers!

it is true that swn doesn't have the production numbers from their wells that cabot does, but I still think that they drill a good well. on balance though, they would be close to my last choice for a producer. (not that we get to choose)

at least try to get it right....maybe once?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 12:04:45 PM

Wj,
do you have any indication that freeze offs of wells might have constrained production after the arctic blast? If so, the next storage report might be a little better than expected.

I don't have lost production numbers ish, but there were freeze offs. not as bad as out west from what I gather.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 16, 2014, 12:07:11 PM
   I know that Cabot has 5 or 6 rigs drilling presently. Talisman ? SWN ? CHK ? Chief?

    Im talking NE PA.
   
 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 16, 2014, 01:42:59 PM
In support of WJ, he was essentially right in his analysis of Southwestern from what I took away.
 
My takeaway was; and it is being played out still, that they are cheap company, not giving good leases to landowners. They still are squeezing landowners. Rock, do you know differently?
 
Wj,
do you have any indication that freeze offs of wells might have constrained production after the arctic blast? If so, the next storage report might be a little better than expected.
>>>> Isheoktoday, of course Southwestern is cheap.  So are all the rest of them unless the land owners can unite and exert the pressure needed to bargain for something better.  Which is why I take exception to anyone who was bad mouthing the land owner groups seeing how necessary they were and still are for that matter to secure an equitable deal.  The tip off about Southwestern's tactics is the lavish praise heaped upon them by Wall Street in regards to their low break even point.  Paying land owners as little as possible is certainly going to be a factor.  My personal experience in this matter of leasing was with Chesapeake.  They certainly took advantage of the situation too, but there's no sense in my describing them in childish language.  And at least with that company I'm done with them as of December 31 thanks to the settlement imposed upon Chesapeake by the New York State Attorney General.  So, I have rejoined the ranks of the unleased once again.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 02:05:54 PM
goat pasture certainly will do best within the group dynamic.  slaplaugh

oh I crack myself up sometimes.....

but the very best deals obtained in the Marcellus were outside of the groups. that's just an inescapable fact.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 16, 2014, 02:22:04 PM
   I know that Cabot has 5 or 6 rigs drilling presently. Talisman ? SWN ? CHK ? Chief?

    Im talking NE PA.
   
 
>>>> Every company operating in the region is going to have the number of rigs listed in their quarterly reports and on reports that come out on sites such as seekingalpha. Overall I'll refer to the EIA's Productivity Report of January 13.  Their charts show that the rig count for the entire Marcellus peaked in 2012 at around 140, with about 100 working at present.  But going sharply in the opposite direction is the production per new well.  In 2010 average production per Marcellus well was around 1.2 million cubic feet a day.  Now it is approaching 6 million.  And in the individual company reports there is the consistent theme of on average fewer days spent drilling each new well. Bottom line is that the industry can post ever greater overall production even with fewer new wells being drilled.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 02:37:51 PM
Bottom line is that the industry can post ever greater overall production even with fewer new wells being drilled.

only to a point, and that point is where the new wells fail to overcome the decline of the older wells. overall u.s. production currently remains fairly flat somewhere in the high60's, and even drops a couple of hundred million from day to day now and then, while demand floats between the 80's to well over a hundred per day this winter.

another thing to keep in mind when relying on info such as this is, that not all of those rigs are drilling in areas with monster wells. the Marcellus has areas of lower dry gas production drilled along with wet gas wells. a lot of the rigs drilling in the Marcellus are working those areas currently.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 16, 2014, 04:54:50 PM
Excellent discussion. Thanks Rock, great points.
 
Like certain Companies operations or not, no Landowner should ever forget that it is BUSINESS. Need to treat it that way.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 16, 2014, 05:07:05 PM

  I agree . Thanks all you guys. Hopefully the price will hold above $4. Fair price for buyers and sellers. And we don't want to scare away the power companies. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Rockdale on January 16, 2014, 05:14:12 PM
Bottom line is that the industry can post ever greater overall production even with fewer new wells being drilled.

only to a point, and that point is where the new wells fail to overcome the decline of the older wells. overall u.s. production currently remains fairly flat somewhere in the high60's, and even drops a couple of hundred million from day to day now and then, while demand floats between the 80's to well over a hundred per day this winter.

another thing to keep in mind when relying on info such as this is, that not all of those rigs are drilling in areas with monster wells. the Marcellus has areas of lower dry gas production drilled along with wet gas wells. a lot of the rigs drilling in the Marcellus are working those areas currently.

wj
>>>> Eventually there has to be a point where the number of wells in decline is so high and the volume being lost is so great that the overall loss of production of existing wells will drag down the averages even if new productive wells can be found.  We don't seem to have gotten to that point yet in the Marcellus, and from the looks of it we might be years away from that situation.`Other shale regions are already in that decline.  The Barnett, the star producer for so many years, is now down about 25% from its all time peak in late 2011.  The Haynesville Shale, as significant a resource as it is, doesn't seem to have wells with great staying power, and that area is also declining.  Overall production is growing fairly modestly, but within that big picture there is a sharp divergence between the Marcellus and everywhere else.  It's true that within the Marcellus there are big differences to be found.  Wet gas vs. dry, with wet gas regions usually featuring smaller volumes but still more profitable because of valuable byproducts.  And of course most all of the energy companies have oil on the brain, and they would switch resources over to oil exploration from gas drilling in the blink of an eye if presented with that opportunity.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 16, 2014, 06:01:17 PM
the only reason that other major shales are in decline, is the rig count. they could increase production by drilling more wells, but they ain't.

the rig count is and always will be a big determining factor for the gas supply.

wj

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 17, 2014, 06:41:11 AM
 Friday 17 January 2014  9:37am  ET

$4.32
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 17, 2014, 02:50:17 PM

  Anyone know what well that Max is near.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: macal on January 17, 2014, 02:57:54 PM

   Wrong thread  :-\
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 18, 2014, 05:05:15 AM
 Saturday 18 January 2014  7:58am  ET

$4.33

Couple of observations:

We did not reach $4.50 this week or, if we did, I missed it.

The price right now does not appear to be reflecting the upcoming polar blast, forecast for this coming week.  Will it be cold enough, once again, to freeze up some wells?  Dunno.  Stay tuned.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 20, 2014, 06:11:14 AM
 Monday 20 January 2014  9:10am  ET

$4.29
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: shinobi on January 21, 2014, 06:45:56 AM
 Tuesday 21 January 2014  9:42am  ET

$4.42

Here we go again.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 21, 2014, 04:11:46 PM
well something's sure going on...

henry spot is over henry futures at $4.58

and leidy spot is even higher at $4.66

zone 4 (Marcellus) is up nicely at $4.30

Algonquin has already had at least one trade at $95

and the cold weather isn't even here yet.

can't wait to see how this progresses in the next week when the real cold sets in for a while.

ish, we gonna have a bet about that $3 or $5 first thing you said? we gotta set the ground rules now before it's too late! I got a yuengling says we're goin' to 5! (or! if you're lucky, maybe i'll wager a bottle of Bradford countys finest hard cider!) (if duff don't get it first)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 21, 2014, 07:58:28 PM
Yes we are on. 3's before 5's 


I think if we see a surprise on the upside on Thursday of maybe 120 on the withdrawal, we will have a nice run above 4.50  .  If we are in the 90's,  then the same old trading range of failing to hold 4.50.  Seems that the current weather has been forecast for awhile.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.25
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 04:55:51 AM
gloomy gus...

the ground rules. are we talking about strictly nymex? no duration? (it just has to kiss the number and can then fall back?)

I'm almost willing to bet too, that we won't see 3's again until late summer or early fall at the earliest, but I gotta see more good weather before a put another yuengling on the line.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on January 22, 2014, 05:52:32 AM
 Wednesday 22 January 2014  8:48am  ET

$4.56

Sure hope wells do not freeze up again.  Would be happy to sell some gas about now.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 09:14:59 AM
$4.629

37.1 cents to go ish.

 ;)
  wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 09:45:14 AM
Wednesday 22 January 2014  8:48am  ET

$4.56

Sure hope wells do not freeze up again.  Would be happy to sell some gas about now.

too late, not only wells this time but midstream stations as well, affecting groups of wells.

in any game there are winners and losers, it's just the luck of the draw sometimes.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on January 22, 2014, 10:04:33 AM
Wednesday 22 January 2014  8:48am  ET

$4.56

Sure hope wells do not freeze up again.  Would be happy to sell some gas about now.

too late, not only wells this time but midstream stations as well, affecting groups of wells.

in any game there are winners and losers, it's just the luck of the draw sometimes.

wj

S**t!  That sucks.

Bet spot will balloon like krazy.  We have several more days of this weather ahead.

It's funny.  Last time I was thinking about heaters for the wells.  But, upon reflection, I realized most of the wellheads hereabouts have no electric services.

I wonder if these freeze ups are a feature primarily of shale wells . . . where so much water was used during development of the well.  I'm unaware of conventional wells freezing like this.

Some gascos are contracted to provide gas regardless weather.  When wells freeze they must buy gas at highly inflated spot prices to fulfill those contracts.  Sure hope that does not somehow end up costing us money!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 10:15:35 AM
conventionals freeze up as well, there is almost always some moisture produced with gas, just not as much as a frac'd well.

on conventional wells they use gas powered heaters. they look almost the same as a dehy unit used on a shale well here in nepa, but without the external contactors we  see on our pads. and for shale wells here in nepa, those dehy units also heat the gas, (using our gas of course), but it isn't enough when temps drop this low.

they also inject methanol as an antifreeze to keep the water from freezing to the sides of the pipes. still...not enough...sometimes.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 10:36:25 AM
no real big moves in spot prices today.

Transco z6 (non ny) lost a little over 43 and a half bucks. down to just under $80 an mcf.  slaplaugh

leidy gained 40 cents. it's up to $5.06 now. (that one count ish?)

tgpz4 (Marcellus) cruising along nicely at $4.60. a gain of 30 cents for today. (almost a Marcellus premium) the high trade was $4.73, those folks got a premium! and the volume was light for some reason. the western stations in zone 4 both averaged over 5 bucks.

let's see, henry spot over futures widened today, up 32 cents to $4.90

ooh, the millennium jumped a buck 31 to $7.40 today, there ya go obi wan, you'll get a nice bump there. shame swn doesn't have alotta gas online in northern susq co.

and the high sales of the day go to the transcos, z5 and the z6's at $120/mcf, down from yesterdays $145/mcf, but still...not too shabby.  slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: shinobi on January 22, 2014, 11:51:10 AM
 Wednesday 22 January 2014  2:42pm  ET

$4.69

I think this is the highest NYMEX price I've reported since the inception of this thread!

If this is global warming, we want more, More, MORE!!!

Spot being quiet is good.  Maybe freeze ups are not hurting the gascos as bad as they did a week or two ago.  This weather, while very cold, is a tiny bit warmer than back then. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: realman on January 22, 2014, 01:51:04 PM
 I don't think I could take much more of this global warming its to cold. :)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 22, 2014, 02:02:20 PM
Neither this, nor the record highs and drought out west prove anything.  The anti global warming crowd fall into the argument just as much as the believers do. Very interesting temptation.


Seems like more, and more widespread snow prior to the freeze this time. Wonder if there is more snow cover, that the radiating sunshine will keep things colder longer this time. Less absorption of heat into the ground.


Hope everybody stays safe.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.70
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 04:22:02 PM
up another penny after hours!

$4.70 on Bloomberg.

sounds like some buyers getting nervous and stocking up while it's still cheap.

how about you ish...getting nervous? .30 to go.

I like my yuengling 10 degrees below room temperature btw, in a nice frosty mug.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 22, 2014, 05:48:14 PM
Maybe I'll have to deliver at the next Ma's, if I get off for good behavior.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: realman on January 22, 2014, 06:50:27 PM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 07:33:52 PM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/

the se power burn was up today, I'm guessing that's why.

you folks in florida better get the brass monkeys in off the lawn tonite!

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 22, 2014, 07:44:37 PM
crap!

they're still selling gas and it's up another penny.

$4.71

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.85
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 04:17:00 AM
good morning ish.

not sure if I mentioned this, but yuengling makes several products, all of them are nice, but I prefer lord chesterfield ale.

$4.86

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.50
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 05:00:53 AM
$4.87

I think I'm gonna count it off for ya by the penny ish, for the dramatic effect.

 ;)
 wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 05:24:32 AM
 Thursday 23 January 2014  8:19am  ET

$4.93     ;D


Leaving troposphere.  About to enter stratosphere!!!!!!!!!!

 crazy crazy crazy crazy

 handclap handclap handclap handclap handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 06:02:53 AM
bentek has put a number (estimated) on the amount of gas lost to freeze offs in the northeast.

"Dry gas production fell a third straight day and is down roughly 0.8 Bcf/d day-over-day, with the largest drops in Texas, the Southeast and the Northeast. Northeast production was revised down 256 MMcf/d in the Jan. 22 I2 cycle, indicating potential freeze-offs in the region.

the arkoma basin and the Fayetteville are experiencing similar losses of production with the temps in the teens down there.

can't wait to see the spot prices and volumes today.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 06:08:40 AM
bentek has put a number (estimated) on the amount of gas lost to freeze offs in the northeast.

"Dry gas production fell a third straight day and is down roughly 0.8 Bcf/d day-over-day, with the largest drops in Texas, the Southeast and the Northeast. Northeast production was revised down 256 MMcf/d in the Jan. 22 I2 cycle, indicating potential freeze-offs in the region.

the arkoma basin and the Fayetteville are experiencing similar losses of production with the temps in the teens down there.

can't wait to see the spot prices and volumes today.

wj

Huge buzz kill.  But I agree in-the-shale landowners must confront reality.

Maybe if we're nice to the global warming fanatics they will selectively un-freeze our wells.  Those folks seem to be the only ones around with any warmth at all . . . even if it exists solely in their imagination!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 06:26:48 AM
 Thursday 23 January 2014  9:22am  ET

$4.83

Things become somewhat exciting as we get near to that magical $5.00 figure.   :)

However, for now the price is headed in the other direction.

Still, the crossing of $4.75 was, and remains, pretty sweet!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 06:31:56 AM
this is why I don't like bloomberg. you might be stuck in a momentary low.

I have $4.90 on Bloomberg and $4.896 on my own ticker.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 06:35:10 AM
might be volatility moment by moment.

Bloomberg is now at $4.87 and mine is at $4.901

Bloomberg runs long scripts and freezes from time to time.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: bellbucci on January 23, 2014, 07:36:07 AM
NG storage reports shows a withdrawal last week of 107Bcf vs the average withdrawal of 181Bcf. That brings the total back closer to the 5yr low.

Propane numbers are not out yet.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on January 23, 2014, 09:56:32 AM
                               http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html)
Look closely at those numbers. Pay particular attention to "Producing"
7.8% below 5 year average and 16.9% below last year.

Than the rig count.

Quote
Natural Gas Rig Count: The natural gas rig count - which last year slumped to its lowest point since Jun 1995 - increased for the first time in 3 weeks to 365 (a gain of 8 rigs from the previous week). Despite the weekly growth, the number of gas-directed rigs is down by 55% from its recent peak of 811, achieved in 2012.

In fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 77% below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 429 active natural gas rigs.


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-drilling-rig-count-jumps-by-23-analyst-blog-cm319460#ixzz2rFF92o6w

Looks like RRC might just have printing press for $$$$
@ $4.50 140.0% IRR in dry gas area.
Wonder if this might speed up/expand that Utica/PP test well in Washington County.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 09:58:31 AM
 Thursday 23 January 2014  12:52pm  ET

$4.80

Posting a few extra price updates today because, at least earlier, we were nearing $5.00.

However, at this point we have settled back a bit;  hanging on to $4.75+, though.   :)

$4.80 might not be five bucks, but it's still pretty sweet!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: Steve-O on January 23, 2014, 10:03:04 AM
wooooohooooo

Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 12:33:45 PM
 Thursday 23 January 2014  3:30pm  ET

$4.71

Price is not holding.  At this point we are actually down two cents for today.   :(
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: aubrey on January 23, 2014, 01:33:23 PM
you're still a penny ahead of yesterdays close though. (gotta look on the bright side)

man...I go away for a couple of hours and come back to this train wreck.

that's the last time I leave you to watch the store!

we got another cold one tonight and some days next week in the single digits too.

I might settle for a pony bottle ish...

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 23, 2014, 03:21:36 PM
 Thursday 23 January 2014  6:14pm  ET

$4.84

Price has bounced back a bit at this hour.  We are once again heading in the right direction!

Note to thread newcomers:

The title of this thread will not change until the NYMEX price reaches $5.01, or more

or

$4.49, or less.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: duffy on January 23, 2014, 04:41:30 PM
Boring ! SHOW ME THE MONEY! ;D
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 23, 2014, 07:27:02 PM
$4.88, might have to be a keg 8)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: Tim W.Pa on January 23, 2014, 10:25:20 PM
What the hell is going on ?
Closed at $4.76 ish
Now trading $4.89 after hours
Seems there might be a shortage.
Somewhere ??
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: shinobi on January 24, 2014, 06:08:14 AM
 Friday 24 January 2014  8:54am  ET

$4.92

Couple of things:

The $5.00 level is gonna be, IMHO, a significant psychological barrier.  Five bucks is a big deal and a price not seen for quite a while.  Also, the weather is likely challenging the traders a bit.  There is another, a third, massive cold system on its way:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/cold-gripping-u-s-preview-of-worse-weather-coming-next-week.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/cold-gripping-u-s-preview-of-worse-weather-coming-next-week.html)

Article proclaims this might be the coldest January of the century.  You figure half (at least) of the traders believe in global warming.  Can you say:  "cognitive dissonance"!!   slaplaugh

I think we will break through the $5.00 mark after more of the traders come to their senses and realize they've been bamboozled.   ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: aubrey on January 24, 2014, 06:24:10 AM
cash basis averaged $5.55 at henry yesterday putting pressure on futures.

here's a good forecast for 2014. from bentek:

"Southwestern Energy recently announced production expectations for the Fayetteville shale play in 2014 to be between 479 Bcf and 484 Bcf, essentially ...flat compared to 2013."

if supply flattens significantly due to less drilling and we burn enough gas out of storage, we will have a nice run this year as they struggle to recover storage numbers sufficiently for next winter.

also, depending on the supply/demand balance during injection, we could see better swings to the high side on hot days during this coming summer, compared to last summer.

we still need to burn off over a tcf of stored gas this winter to get there, but things are shaping up nicely so far.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 24, 2014, 08:34:54 AM
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.01 +0.28 +5.90% Feb 14 10:58:45

It may be psychological for us, but it's just another higher number for them.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 24, 2014, 08:47:30 AM
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 4.99 +0.26 +5.56% Feb 14 11:10:38

and so...it was a fleeting moment of glory....for now.

next week we will hold over 5 for a close and maybe for a while.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: macal on January 24, 2014, 11:11:26 AM

   $5.06 ? Cnbc reports
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: macal on January 24, 2014, 11:13:52 AM

  They also reported $135 at one gate in New Jersey.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $4.75
Post by: bellbucci on January 24, 2014, 11:49:16 AM
$5.18 on Bloomberg now. We might skip right over that $5.00 in the title and on to $5.25.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on January 24, 2014, 12:30:04 PM
 Friday 24 January 2014  3:22pm  ET

$5.23    handclap handclap

Guys I've been out all day doing the store trading up in NY.  I appreciate the many posts keeping things here up to date!!

We are up 50 cents today as of this posting.  This is wonderful price action for in-the-shale landowners.  But I agree with Duffy:

I hope at least some of this stuff starts soon to show up in our darn checks!!!
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 24, 2014, 02:05:16 PM
Friday 24 January 2014  3:22pm  ET
$5.23    handclap handclap
Guys I've been out all day doing the store trading up in NY.  I appreciate the many posts keeping things here up to date!!
We are up 50 cents today as of this posting.  This is wonderful price action for in-the-shale landowners.  But I agree with Duffy:
I hope at least some of this stuff starts soon to show up in our darn checks!!!

 slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh
(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSa-WXlbvGD_robDrqKkUC35fUfJJTjPJCABRilDnoA5RT80mW4)
Yes we are on. 3's before 5's 
I think if we see a surprise on the upside on Thursday of maybe 120 on the withdrawal, we will have a nice run above 4.50  .  If we are in the 90's,  then the same old trading range of failing to hold 4.50.  Seems that the current weather has been forecast for awhile.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: firecutter874 on January 24, 2014, 02:22:01 PM
Yep Duffy I agree, I want to see the money in my checks, and get their filthy hands out of my pocket with their Post Production Deductions.
Keep wipping that horse keep him at $5. and head for the $6. mark.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 24, 2014, 02:26:32 PM
(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSa-WXlbvGD_robDrqKkUC35fUfJJTjPJCABRilDnoA5RT80mW4)

back at ya ish!

everybody's a winner today.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on January 25, 2014, 04:18:47 AM
 Saturday 25 January 2014  7:14am  ET

$5.18

The NYMEX will re-open for trading tomorrow, Sunday 26 January, at 5:15 pm.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 25, 2014, 07:00:11 AM
Saturday 25 January 2014  7:14am  ET

$5.18


not sure where you are seeing this?

I see the last transaction as:

NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.18 +0.45 +9.56% Feb 14 17:15:00

that was last night.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on January 25, 2014, 07:51:38 AM
Saturday 25 January 2014  7:14am  ET

$5.18


not sure where you are seeing this?

I see the last transaction as:

NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.18 +0.45 +9.56% Feb 14 17:15:00

that was last night.

wj

I appreciate the opportunity to clarify this.  It's been a while since I have posted this information, and there are SO many different NG prices and ways to obtain those prices (i.e., services).

So, once again:

From the inception of this thread, the NG price I post here from time to time always is, and always has been, obtained the same way.

I pull up this page

http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/quickview/)

noting the time of the download.  Then I post the price I see there, and the day and time.  With so many different NG prices, and ways to access those prices, I've always believed it was important to be consistent in the way I obtain the price I post.  And I always have been.

I want to acknowledge there are a great many other ways to obtain NG price information.  But followers of this thread need to know the approach here has not changed from day one.  Also, if I have not recently posted a price, you can obtain the current price simply by accessing the above link.

In summary, I am not posting the price and time of the most recent NYMEX trade.  I am instead posting the price, along with the date and time I access that price information, at the Bloomberg summary page, link shown above.  When the market is open those two things are likely to be (at least close to) the same.  But when the market is closed, as for example on a Saturday, the time and date information will be different.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 25, 2014, 08:01:09 AM
thanks for the clarification, I thought I was missing something.

for anyone who wants to pull up timely and complete info, this link might work better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

that one goes directly to the energy price site which includes nat gas, and also gives the time of the last transaction. there is a delay in reporting though, and unfortunately unless you want to pay, that's about the best you're gonna do.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: realman on January 25, 2014, 11:26:23 AM
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.7023531&lon=-76.24791199999998&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wyalusing%2C%20PA%2018853%2C%20USA#.UuQPBzgo7L8 Cold nights.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: shinobi on January 26, 2014, 01:10:30 PM
Guys the NYMEX will re-open for trading at 5:15pm, just a bit more than an hour from now.  The Sunday opening is to accommodate interests in the Far East, where it's already Monday morning (or shortly will be).

Looking forward, this very cold spell of weather is forecast to fade away commencing roughly a week from right now.  Said another way, after the Super Bowl the weather should warm up.

The traders, of course, know more about this than we do, and more is known now than was known when trading came to a close late last Friday afternoon.  So will we fall back below five bucks?  Stay tuned.   ;) 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 26, 2014, 01:54:59 PM
if you're looking for guesses, what the heck, I ain't scared...

I think we are likely to see downward pressure possibly from the outset of trading Monday and almost certainly during intraday trading throughout the week.

the price will likely dip under 5 bucks now and then, but I'm pretty sure we'll see more closes above 5 in the coming week.

how high prices will rise is too much of a crapshoot. with a couple of 0 degree days coming this week, more freeze offs are all but certain at least in the Marcellus, though I'd betya that they are more prepared now than they were a couple of weeks ago. there were substantial losses suffered by operators here in the past 2 weeks due to lost production and failures to deliver gas. (mineral owners too) not something they want to repeat.

we won't see 6 and we'll likely see high 4's throughout the week. we need to burn off a lot more gas before the numbers get real good and stay there, at least for several months.

ish?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 26, 2014, 03:08:37 PM
I will not even take a shot. What I do wonder is if the last cold effected Nymex so much, because the cold went deeper into Louisiana and Texas.

  The writer of the article I link to thinks this blast could be colder, but does not seem to go as far south. Save the trees, burn more gas. WJ, Seems like your back must be holding up?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/next-polar-plunge-could-be-win/22527373
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 26, 2014, 03:44:06 PM
no doubt your first assessment is correct ish, hh spot was over futures for a couple of days, which then likely drove demand for futures.

this clipper isn't going as far south, but demand should still be high across most of the country.

my back has been doing great. been cutting wood and getting a few things done. won't last though, at this age we learn to enjoy the good days and live through the tough weeks and months.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: Rockdale on January 26, 2014, 04:01:15 PM
Guys the NYMEX will re-open for trading at 5:15pm, just a bit more than an hour from now.  The Sunday opening is to accommodate interests in the Far East, where it's already Monday morning (or shortly will be).

Looking forward, this very cold spell of weather is forecast to fade away commencing roughly a week from right now.  Said another way, after the Super Bowl the weather should warm up.

The traders, of course, know more about this than we do, and more is known now than was known when trading came to a close late last Friday afternoon.  So will we fall back below five bucks?  Stay tuned.   ;)
>>>> From what I can see on the Yahoo Finance site the last trade of the February '14 NYMEX gas contract was for $5.18, with contracts after April '14 and later in the 4's.  The fact that there is presently a wintry mix including snow all the way to the Gulf of Mexico coast might have something to do with that price.  People who think that if they move to the South that they will escape winter entirely are often disappointed.  The South to be sure has milder average temperatures but they can get their share of cold from time to time, and often the effect will be serious because they are not set up to deal with it.  And those kind of extreme conditions in the South include one memorable winter in the 1890's when even northern Florida experienced temperatures down to zero.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25
Post by: aubrey on January 26, 2014, 04:12:50 PM
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.27 +0.08 +1.60% Feb 14 18:38:41

nice start.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00 !!
Post by: aubrey on January 26, 2014, 06:02:44 PM
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.31 +0.13 +2.49% Feb 14 20:27:00

still climbing.

maybe they saw this forecast:

http://weather.aol.com/2014/01/25/next-polar-plunge-could-be-winters-coldest/?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl2|sec1_lnk1%26pLid%3D434767?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000058&

that's the first one I've seen that predicts deep south deep cold.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: shinobi on January 27, 2014, 05:18:28 AM
 Monday 27 January 2014  8:11am  ET

$5.27

Well, wrong again.  I, too, thought the price would be falling owing to next week's warm up.  But I guess they are looking at this week's final (let's hope) arctic blast.  Sure could use a little global warming about now, but that's not real.  Oh, well.   :(

ETA

Holy cow!  I very nearly missed that we crossed over $5.25 . . . another mini milestone!  Gotta tell you, though, with warmer weather on the way, I'm not seeing $6.00 gas this year.  Heck, if we can hold onto five bucks for a while it'll be great!   
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 05:52:14 AM
remember, there's a delay in reporting. you don't see trades until about 40 minutes later. what you posted was before the opening.

NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.12 -0.06 -1.20% Feb 14 08:16:09

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 06:22:36 AM
headed down.

NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.07 -0.11 -2.20% Feb 14 08:49:10

trading is light, another bad sign.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: shinobi on January 27, 2014, 06:32:52 AM
headed down.

NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 5.07 -0.11 -2.20% Feb 14 08:49:10

trading is light, another bad sign.

wj

Yeah.  Looks as if maybe we were right after all.  Pity.

Overnight trading was too optimistic.  Once the adults got into work this morning, and once they began looking beyond this week, well . . . . . . . . .  :(

That "$5.25" in the title, it now appears, might be really short lived.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 06:48:42 AM
the pace is picking up a bit, there currently looks to be some support at just above 5, but I think that that support too will erode before too long.

still bouncing between 5.03 and 5.07.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 10:32:39 AM
NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 4.93 -0.25 -4.88% Feb 14 12:58:07

there ya go...

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Keith on January 27, 2014, 11:13:15 AM
Lets see if price continues to rise, I just wonder when we may see these higher prices in our royalty checks. This month check from Cabot was 3.48
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 11:18:34 AM
well finally we have a little backwardation in the market again.

while front month nymex futures hover at the $5 range, Marcellus prices moved up nicely today. (been waitin' on this'n)

tgpz4 (Marcellus) is up $1.13 at $5.39 today, with the high sale this morning at $5.90! (somebodys gonna get a nice check in 2 months!)

leidy moved up even nicer, up $1.20 to $5.44, the high was $5.95.

the millennium continues to excel at over 9 bucks, a gain of $1.84 today. (congrats northern Susquehanna county! (unless your company contracted at $4.12   :( ))

these have been good weeks for Marcellus gas, march checks will rival if not exceed nymex pricing. going forward from there, whether we slip back to a contango or not will depend on storage numbers.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 11:25:11 AM
Lets see if price continues to rise, I just wonder when we may see these higher prices in our royalty checks. This month check from Cabot was 3.48

at $3.48, you were only a penny behind the nymex average for the month.

Feb - 2013 $3.226
Mar - 2013 $3.427
Apr - 2013 $3.976
May - 2013 $4.152
Jun - 2013 $4.148
Jul - 2013 $3.707
Aug - 2013 $3.459
Sep - 2013 $3.567
Oct - 2013 $3.498
Nov - 2013 $3.496
Dec - 2013 $3.818
Jan - 2014 $4.407

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Keith on January 27, 2014, 12:53:00 PM
Maybe I do not follow along as close as I should. The check for January was for Decembers production. Do they always pay prior months nymex pricing? example Decembers production is calculated by November price. Again thanks for all info. handclap
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 01:12:23 PM
Do they always pay prior months nymex pricing?

no.

if your last check was for December, the nymex average was $3.818 and you got 34 cents less than the nymex.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Keith on January 27, 2014, 01:20:08 PM
Thanks, I guess phone calls are to be made. :o
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 01:22:08 PM
why?

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: bellbucci on January 27, 2014, 02:11:27 PM
...The check for January was for Decembers production...
You were already paid for December production?! That doesn't seem likely. Good for you if true.

As discussed elsewhere, NYMEX HH prices are the prices at a specific spot in the country. You need to find out where your gas is sold and follow that price. We discuss the Henry Hub price because that is the most commonly reported - but not directly relevant for many of us at all.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: macal on January 27, 2014, 02:35:59 PM

   Cabot had been paying exactly nymex for many months,  then recently started paying less than nymex. The disclosed that in one of their presentations. Cabot does pay the previous month on the 25th of the following month.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 03:27:20 PM
I missed where he said he was with cabot, sorry about that.

the nymex closed at $4.928, and has dropped another 8 cents in after hours trading to $4.85.

tomorrow it will close over $5, and Marcellus pricing will likely crack $6 all around. ish?

and really, the biggest reason for this thread not having died a long time ago, is that it has been fun, while the rest of this forum has become a waste of space.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 27, 2014, 04:05:13 PM
Trying to trick me WJ. Marcellus pricing could be all over the place. It was great to see you mention better pricing on Leidy, and some of the other zones which have been lower at times.
 
High pressure has shifted down in the West. Quickly changed.  May be why this blast could go deeper into the country, and shift further West this time. Hard freeze warning in Texas in a couple days. Could get a normal Winter pattern to finish things off before Spring. That would be great for withdrawals. RBN seemed to be indicating a low of around 1200 Bcf for storage. 
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 04:08:14 PM
heck, you know me ish, I'm a tricky guy....  ;)

nah, we're just havin' fun here is all, not much to get serious about it's just nymex afterall.

go ahead take a shot, win yer beer back.  ;)

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Dogbone on January 27, 2014, 04:13:55 PM
For us property owners, I think the price trend and support level are more important than the actual day to day price. 

Not saying anything is wrong with watching the intra day and daily pricing, but it's a lot like watching stock prices with all the daily fluctuations.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: duffy on January 27, 2014, 04:30:33 PM
What else we got to do in the winter bone? My freezer is teeming with fish caught through the ice, i still have alot of work, this is one of those mindless distractions, you know, kinda like TV.  ;)
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: aubrey on January 27, 2014, 04:43:36 PM
RBN seemed to be indicating a low of around 1200 Bcf for storage.

I missed that the first time around, that's a keeper!

I figure 1.2-1.4 bcf if we get lucky, the lower the better, but we have along way to go.

anyway, that's a far cry from 2 years ago when they were predicting over 4 tcf at the beginning of winter and no place to put any more. I remember dire predictions by pundits that companies might actually have to give the stuff away. funny what a difference a little time and a normal winter makes huh.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: bellbucci on January 27, 2014, 07:47:29 PM
... RBN seemed to be indicating a low of around 1200 Bcf for storage.
Where'd you see this?

 Powerburn hasn't updated anything in a few weeks, so I'm itching to read someone's projections.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 27, 2014, 09:30:12 PM
https://rbnenergy.com/weather-forecasts-drove-prices-higher-as-extended-cold-into-february-increased

One of the more interesting reports. Found it interesting that this winter has not been that cold, also the led light comments.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.25 !!!
Post by: shinobi on January 28, 2014, 04:13:39 AM
 Tuesday 28 January 2014  7:08am  ET

$5.06

Hanging onto $5.00 by the skin of our teeth.

I was checking Super Bowl weather and ended up looking at next week as well.  Darn, it's going to be really warm.

ETA

Whoa!  I never saw it.  But both wj and admin are showing prices south of five bucks.  Wj's price was below.  Admin's price was darn near to $4.75!!

So . . . I'm changing the title.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 05:14:22 AM
production is down again today to approx. 64 bcf, while demand is close to the first vortex record setting day of jan, 7. we have 2 more days of this compared to a single day in the first vortex which burned 287 bcf. I think we'll burn 300 bcf or better this week.

the nymex is at $5.08 after being under 5 most of the night, and we haven't seen the opening price yet. should be a good day.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: Zach on January 28, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Next 3 weeks of withdraws expected to be 750 BCF total

Marcellus Pricing:
Dominion South - $6.005
Leidy Hub - $7.26
Transco-Leidy Line - $5.51 (Up $1.365 Yesterday)
Millennium East - $9.50
Tenn Zone 4 200 - $6.00
Tenn Zone 4 300 - $5.50 (Up $1.225 Yesterday)
TECO M2 - $6.30
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: shinobi on January 28, 2014, 10:49:00 AM
 Tuesday 28 January 2014  1:41pm  ET

$5.01

NYMEX continues to bob up and down near to that magical $5.00 figure.  I enjoyed this Bloomberg price analysis piece.  Phil Flynn's reference to "sellers remorse" was nice:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/natural-gas-rebounds-after-biggest-drop-in-almost-nine-months.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/natural-gas-rebounds-after-biggest-drop-in-almost-nine-months.html)

While Phil again mentions the cold, I want to remind landowners that warm weather is anticipated next week.  So don't pin hopes on continuation of frigid temps to support the NYMEX price.  It's not gonna happen.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 11:01:23 AM
futures trading was very light yesterday and looks to be so again today.

I think most buyers are waiting out the high spot prices and letting things settle down a bit (later this week).

we might hold 5 today but it's looking a little iffier with the increased downward pressure.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 11:51:44 AM
here is something which I find remarkable. (and so I'm remarking  slaplaugh )

this morning, there was 1 (one!) single spot sale at tgpz4 (Marcellus) for $4.25. and it wasn't even a large volume.

I can't wait to hear the rest of the story on that one!

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: Zach on January 28, 2014, 12:13:12 PM
The February contract goes off the board today (Last Day of trading)  the majority of the volume is in the March contract which is up $0.281 today with a last of $4.955.  This is what will be quoted starting tomorrow.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 28, 2014, 12:40:04 PM
"Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said January is on track to be the coldest month of the 21st century in the contiguous U.S. in terms of gas-weighted heating degree days, a measure of energy demand. About 49 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.  "

From the article, what are they saying? Is it cold weather, or Natural Gas cold, measured by gas use being higher per heating degree day? If it is higher use per degree day, does that indicate that Natural Gas has gained base heating market share independent from the level of the temperature?

Tuesday 28 January 2014  1:41pm  ET

$5.01

NYMEX continues to bob up and down near to that magical $5.00 figure.  I enjoyed this Bloomberg price analysis piece.  Phil Flynn's reference to "sellers remorse" was nice:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/natural-gas-rebounds-after-biggest-drop-in-almost-nine-months.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/natural-gas-rebounds-after-biggest-drop-in-almost-nine-months.html)

While Phil again mentions the cold, I want to remind landowners that warm weather is anticipated next week.  So don't pin hopes on continuation of frigid temps to support the NYMEX price.  It's not gonna happen.
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 02:10:19 PM
well now, that was a squeaker.

I have $5.005 for the last trade. just about as little above 5 as ya can get, but it held.

and I have march gas at $4.9110 for a gain of 23.7 cents today. that should be the opener tomorrow. I expect it to trade right around the $5 mark tomorrow with downward pressure throughout the day.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 02:17:42 PM
oops, now i jumped the gun.

looks like $5.02, and $4.9160 for a gain of 24.2 cents on the march contracts.

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: LEGEND on January 28, 2014, 04:53:12 PM
cant you call or text your personal bs any news you put up is out of date.

but you keep trying to prove how smart you are.

hello the internet is on...
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aubrey on January 28, 2014, 05:46:48 PM
cant you call or text your personal bs any news you put up is out of date.

but you keep trying to prove how smart you are.

hello the internet is on...

yeah, you're probably right, and I'm sure that a lot of others feel the same as you. tired of reading, or avoiding reading all of my b.s..

so just for you, and especially because you asked so nice, I will go away and not interrupt all of the really good stuff that gets posted by you and others.

adios!

wj
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: aktony on January 28, 2014, 05:52:08 PM

Pay no attention, wj. The screen name says it all:  a LEGEND in his/her own mind....
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: bellbucci on January 28, 2014, 07:07:18 PM
cant you call or text your personal bs any news you put up is out of date.

but you keep trying to prove how smart you are.

hello the internet is on...
When posting something for the public to read, isn't everyone trying to prove how smart or clever or funny they are?
Title: Re: NG price crosses $5.00
Post by: shinobi on January 29, 2014, 03:52:45 AM
cant you call or text your personal bs any news you put up is out of date.

but you keep trying to prove how smart you are.

hello the internet is on...

yeah, you're probably right, and I'm sure that a lot of others feel the same as you. tired of reading, or avoiding reading all of my b.s..

so just for you, and especially because you asked so nice, I will go away and not interrupt all of the really good stuff that gets posted by you and others.

adios!

wj

wj

Coupla things:

First, many thanks for your numerous excellent contributions to this thread!

Second, don't slow down, dude, cause I'm right behind you!!   ;)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Keith on January 29, 2014, 05:40:38 AM
wj/shinobi- Please continue  with your posting and pay no attention to the ignorance that comes from people. I know I only post every once in a while, but I do follow and have been follow this thread from the beginning.  WJ, you asked why should I call Cabot about the price I am being paid. The main reason is your thread here about pricing plus I need to understand more on how their pricing works.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Zach on January 29, 2014, 07:41:29 AM
Yesterdays Closing Prices with Daily Change:

Appalachia
Dominion, North Point 5.200 -0.710
Dominion, South Point 5.195 -0.810
Leidy Hub       6.285 -0.975
Columbia Gas, App.   5.295 -0.545
Tennessee, zone 4-200 leg 5.460 -0.540
Tennessee, zone 4-300 leg 4.800 -0.705
Texas Eastern, M-2 receipts 5.325 -0.975
Millennium, East receipts 7.685 -1.815
Transco, Leidy Line receipts 4.480 -1.030
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on January 29, 2014, 12:47:20 PM
WJ,
  Just ignore the "trolls".
I don't recall any post from "legend in their own mind" anywhere. Does anyone else?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on January 29, 2014, 01:16:04 PM
The February contract is at $5.557, while the upcoming March contract is at $5.409. A big jump today.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Steve-O on January 29, 2014, 05:14:21 PM
Really, Legend? REALLY?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on January 29, 2014, 05:38:17 PM
Why the H**L do you think this thread has been read more than 99 thousand times??????

Because of posters like WJ, Shinobi and many more.

The WJ I know is not one to walk away from a goood discussion!!!!!!

We slackers need all the information you bring to our table, without it we are left to mercy of the O/G people.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Gashole on January 29, 2014, 06:49:08 PM
Good job Legend, you jacka$$. 
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on January 30, 2014, 05:44:58 AM

   $5.24 on cnbc. Good news. Lets see how that reflects into royalty checks. We will know shortly.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: semper_fi on January 30, 2014, 06:04:28 AM
Don't quit on us WJ. I for one, check this every day and always find your posts very enlightening.

SF
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: zeus4513 on January 30, 2014, 06:19:09 AM
What a shame some newbie comes here and takes away from the day we have been waiting years for by attacking one of our most respected posters.  Everyone just ignore this creep, and celebrate with wj that we are well above $5.00.  Fingers crossed it lasts, and we see it in our checks.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on January 30, 2014, 07:09:57 AM
I agree Gas. Not that all here have not contributed, but I now feel out on a limb with out the help coming to fetch me home.
Being one not to versed in this O/G business, I need posters like WJ to keep me from falling into desperation because of not knowing what the Hades is going on aroiund me.
WJ the Yellow Ribbon is Tied on the Oak Tree handclap handclap handclap

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: JEB on January 30, 2014, 08:10:20 AM
Overhead resistance on the NG weekly chart is $6.108.  The last time NG traded at that price was on 1/8/10.  I would expect major resistance to occur for NG at that price.

It will be interesting to see what happens if NG can challenge this previous price high!

If NG can close above $6.108 multiple times then old resistance becomes support. At least that is what WD Gann taught us! 
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: duffy on January 30, 2014, 09:18:11 AM
Relax guys, he has thick skin, right buddy? (no not you buddy)  headpat
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: donegal on January 30, 2014, 09:34:39 AM
Thick Skin??  Nice of ya' to stand up for thet boy, Duff.  I agree, not to worry.....He'll be back.........jus'as soon as he wakes up today.  ;D


I know these Boys,
Donegal
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Zach on January 30, 2014, 11:40:27 AM
Easy on the $6 mcf call, although we may trade there it is not going to stay there for any extended period of time. In fact we are down $0.45 today.  Unfortunately the NE PA markets trade down again yesterday even-though Nymex spiked up.

Tennessee, zone 4-300 leg 3.685 -1.115
Transco, Leidy Line receipts 3.830 -0.650
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on January 30, 2014, 12:54:23 PM
Overhead resistance on the NG weekly chart is $6.108.  The last time NG traded at that price was on 1/8/10.  I would expect major resistance to occur for NG at that price.

It will be interesting to see what happens if NG can challenge this previous price high!

If NG can close above $6.108 multiple times then old resistance becomes support. At least that is what WD Gann taught us!

Good analysis Jeb.
Although I would love to get $7+ for 18-24 months it would probably do more long term damage than short term gain. Than again 2 years at $7 sure would be nice. But if it stays between $5-$6 most royalties will double or better.

 Probably much above $6 would stop conversion in transportation and power plant construction. Even at  the current sloooow pace. Anything >$7 and the drilling would go nuts again and we'd be back in the low $3 again. We may even do that anyway  as the backlog on pipelines and processing gets worked out.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on January 30, 2014, 02:48:27 PM

  Hey Legend. You chased away my two main antagonists. How come.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Steve-O on January 30, 2014, 03:03:36 PM
So, I guess the next question is, is he going to make us beg? 
 
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: duffy on January 30, 2014, 03:58:21 PM
Who? Legend?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on January 30, 2014, 03:59:35 PM
Thanks for the numbers Jeb, Zach and others.
 
Wj is so old that once he is gone for a day, he forgets how to find the site. It could be weeks until somebody knocks on his door to clue him in.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: duffy on January 30, 2014, 05:17:02 PM
Not it  ;)!
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Steve-O on January 30, 2014, 06:47:43 PM
No!   :P
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on January 30, 2014, 08:06:37 PM

  We could chip in and give him a couple of bucks every week. Then he can say he has a job. Win win.
Im a team player.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: LEGEND on January 30, 2014, 10:16:45 PM
Oh come on now dont throw a hissy fit, ive been here since 5/08. the politics get out of hand sometimes but other then that it's all good. If i pissed you off suck it up and move on.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 01, 2014, 05:59:28 AM

 I was reading where a lot of these natural gas hedge funds got slaughtered betting on the price of nat gas.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 01, 2014, 09:17:56 AM
No one updated Friday: the March contract went down to 4.943.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 01, 2014, 11:23:09 AM

  Still a good price. Lets see how all this translates to royalties.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on February 02, 2014, 09:05:28 AM
Macal, sure would hope to see soon the impact, the prices on my last statement is about half that price.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 02, 2014, 09:15:32 AM

  Wow, lets watch real close what happens in the next checks. Yaw needs to pressure some of these companies to play fair. Or we need to stand together and maybe have NARO do some in depth investigating.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on February 02, 2014, 05:39:10 PM
Funny you mentioned Sen. Yaw Macal, there is a bill to address some of our concerns that is having a Public Committee Hearing in Harrisburg on Tuesday on the House Side. I have been in contact with Sen. Yaw's office in Harrisburg many times that he should write a companion bill on the Senate Side, and have been in contact with Tina Pickett who will be attending the Public Hearing Tuesday she assured me. Baker & Major are also co-sponsors I assume.
Rest assured if you are not registered to VOTE and you call their office they will know, because the only thing they respect is a VOTER.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 03, 2014, 05:12:49 AM

  Hey cutter. Hope they give q good presentation with actual royalty statements.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Zach on February 03, 2014, 07:46:26 AM
Unfortunately the NEPA markets continue to get crushed:

Transco, Leidy Line receipts 2.280 -0.855
Tennessee, zone 4-300 leg 1.970 -1.205
Millennium, East receipts 4.690 -0.635

These would be Friday closes
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on February 03, 2014, 08:47:12 AM

 I was reading where a lot of these natural gas hedge funds got slaughtered betting on the price of nat gas.
[/quote >>>> Hedge funds are often times more active as short sellers than going long on a stock, commodity, etc.  Many times they leverage themselves very heavily borrowing lots of money in the process.  A strategy that pays of well when they are right, but can be disastrous when they are wrong.  At least when you go long on a stock or other investment the worst case scenario is a 100% loss of what had been invested.  With a short sale that goes wrong the potential losses are practically limitless.  With natural gas in the dog house for so long it seemed like easy pickings to expect furthur declines.  But for those who had to buy back short positions when spot prices got to an incredible 100 dollars plus for a few days, the losses must have been astronomical.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on February 03, 2014, 02:29:22 PM
Macal: Pickett, Baker & Major I know are well versed to make a good presentation, and could give good evidence how the region here is being short changed. Just recived my Check from CHK and more than half was deducted that would have been spent here in the LOCAL COMMUNITY, times this by tens of thousands and you will come up with quite an impact.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 03, 2014, 02:45:13 PM

  Chk deducted more than half ? I don't think that what our legislators had in mind when they passed the 12.5 % minimum royalty bill in 1979. I hope they rewrite that bill and I would like them to pass something that gives them auditing power on the gascos.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 03, 2014, 02:49:45 PM
Here's a good article looking at the futures prices in the 2020's. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1989111-natural-gas-a-meltdown-behind-the-revival
 I noticed this a few weeks ago, but didn't say anything, didn't write an article....
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on February 03, 2014, 03:30:30 PM
Here's a good article looking at the futures prices in the 2020's. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1989111-natural-gas-a-meltdown-behind-the-revival
 I noticed this a few weeks ago, but didn't say anything, didn't write an article....
>>>> It was certainly noticeable that at the time that spot prices were in the stratosphere that the long end of the futures market was behaving rather mildly.  The 130 dollar price tag at certain city gates, especially NYC, weren't having much effect on the longer futures contracts or that much of a lasting effect on spot prices in the production regions.  On the 19th of January an article appeared in Platt's authored by Bradley Olsen of Tudor Pickering Holt.  Mr. Olsens' projections are that for the northeast gas production should more than double by the end of this decade, while regional demand will only grow some 25%.  Which indicates a pressing need to sell into other regions such as the Florida market, and for gas to be exported as LNG.  And by Mr. Olsen's estimates that chronic over abundance will cause prices in the northeast to be consistently at least a dollar cheaper than at Henry Hub.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 04, 2014, 08:10:51 AM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on February 04, 2014, 03:05:25 PM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
>>>> It's certainly been an Old Fashioned Winter in much of the country with lots of cold and snow.  But in a large portion of the Southwest it's been extremely mild and drought is becoming ever more worry some, especially in California.  And apparently that California drought is going to affect the demand for natural gas.  There is a news story today carried in the Sacramento Bee explaining how electric utilities in California are planning on considerably less low cost hydroelectric power and a lot greater reliance on replacement power from natural gas fired generators, especially in the peak demand months of the summer.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 04, 2014, 03:30:54 PM

   Didn't California plan to eliminate any coal generated electricity by 2020 or something like that ?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on February 04, 2014, 06:51:01 PM

   Didn't California plan to eliminate any coal generated electricity by 2020 or something like that ?


2027?

2025?

but they do not now have a replacement source for electricity ...

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/los-angeles-bans-coal-power/3209

Ten years is enough time to buy gas turbines,  Or even new nukes ... although they don't have water for cooling.   Unless they use salt water, which they now use ... but they are shutting down those units.

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on February 05, 2014, 05:38:41 AM

   Didn't California plan to eliminate any coal generated electricity by 2020 or something like that ?
>>>> I don't know if California would achieve that goal in the time frame mentioned, but it is certainly true that coal burning as a way to make electricity is on the defensive most anywhere in the United States.  On the EIA website there is a map of new electric power projects under construction, and while there are dozens of new natural gas, solar, wind, etc. plants going in, there is exactly 1 new coal fired plant being built in Mississippi.  Just about every month sees the announcement of one or more existing coal fired plants that will close.  And there is an article online written by Nick Cunningham that appeared in oilprice.com detailing some of the hard times in the coal industry, with the suggestion that the decline of coal is irreversible.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 05, 2014, 06:41:04 AM

  Wow. Nat Gas almost at $5.50.  Still cold out.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 05, 2014, 07:19:38 AM
Which will come first ?
Trade 5 days Below $5.00 or above $6.00.
I'll take the $6.00. Will close above 6.00 tomorrow after storage report. All of the shorts seem to have covered and I'll bet the producers have sold forward close to 100% of projected production. If weather stays below average through mid march they'll start talking shortages. That's the last thing we want !!
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 05, 2014, 07:40:13 AM

  We have been hearing about $100 mcf nat gas over in Jersey.  I am curious on who the sellers are and what they paid for it.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 05, 2014, 08:59:38 AM
I'm pretty sure it's not the gas but the transportation. If it appeared on a royalty check that would be one hell of a transportation deduction. ???
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 05, 2014, 06:11:30 PM

  I don't think the pipeline operator buys the gas. He gets paid to move it. Im guessing investors buy some of it at some point. The bottom line is who owns it at the point of sale in Jersey when the price has spiked to $100.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 06, 2014, 07:46:14 AM
Storage report for last week reveals a 262Bcf withdrawal from storage, with the total being well below the five-year low.

The Nymex March contract for NG is at $5.10, up slightly from yesterday.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 06, 2014, 09:05:26 AM
Quote
262Bcf withdrawal from storage

That was a little lower drawdown than expected (~13Bcf) but notice the 8Bcf adjustment to prior withdrawal data. Hope this isn't a trend of adjusting prior numbers so current numbers look better.

Also looked at Propane in storage. 19.1 days of supply as of 01/31/2014 that compares to 33.8 days of supply on 02/01/13. Better warm up soon or there will be a real shortage and not just bottlenecks.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on February 06, 2014, 10:20:58 AM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
>>>> It's certainly been an Old Fashioned Winter in much of the country with lots of cold and snow.  But in a large portion of the Southwest it's been extremely mild and drought is becoming ever more worry some, especially in California.  And apparently that California drought is going to affect the demand for natural gas.  There is a news story today carried in the Sacramento Bee explaining how electric utilities in California are planning on considerably less low cost hydroelectric power and a lot greater reliance on replacement power from natural gas fired generators, especially in the peak demand months of the summer.


THE California drought:

Excellent excellent article about why California can't seem to figure out how to develop/manage their water resources.

http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2014/02/06/a-tale-of-two-droughts-n1790132/page/full

Probably the BEST article of its kind that really hits the problem right on the head.



excerpt:

Californians have not built a major reservoir since the New Melones Dam more than 30 years ago. As the state subsequently added almost 20 million people, it assumed that it was exempt from creating any more "unnatural" Sierra lakes and canals to store precious water during California's rarer wet and snow-filled years.

Then, short-sightedness soon became conceit. Green utopians went further and demanded that an ailing 3-inch bait fish in the San Francisco delta receive more fresh oxygenated water. In the last five years, they have successfully gone to court to force millions of acre-feet of contracted irrigation water to be diverted from farms to flow freely out to sea.

Others had even grander ideas of having salmon again in their central rivers, as they recalled fishing stories of their ancestors from when the state population was a fifth of its present size and farming a fraction of its present acreage. So they too sued to divert even more water to the sea in hopes of having game fish swim from the Pacific Ocean up to arid Fresno County on their way to the supposedly ancestral Sierra spawning grounds.

The wages of both nature's drought and human folly are coming due. Unless it rains or snows in biblical fashion in the next 60 days, we could see surreal things in California -- towns without water, farms reverting to scrub, majestic parks with dead landscaping -- fit for Hollywood's disaster movies.

Instead of an adult state with millions of acre-feet stored in new reservoirs, California is still an adolescent culture that believes that it has the right to live as if it were the age of the romantic 19th-century naturalist John Muir -- amid a teeming 40-million-person 21st-century megalopolis.

The California disease is characteristic of comfortable postmodern societies that forget the sources of their original wealth. The state may have the most extensive reserves of gas and oil in the nation, the largest number of cars on the road -- and the greatest resistance to drilling for fuel beneath its collective feet. After last summer's forest fires wiped out a billion board feet of timber, we are still arguing over whether loggers will be allowed to salvage such precious lumber, or instead should let it rot to enhance beetle and woodpecker populations.

In 2014, nature yet again reminded California just how fragile -- and often pretentious -- a place it has become.

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 06, 2014, 10:53:12 AM
Sacramento area storms to last through weekend By Sammy Caiola
scaiola@sacbee.com Published: Thursday, Feb.  6, 2014 -  7:13 am Last Modified: Thursday, Feb.  6, 2014 - 10:33 am With light rain beginning around 11 p.m. Wednesday night, Sacramento had already received 0.33 inches of precipitation by 7 a.m., according to National Weather Service representative George Cline.
The puddles and wet streets mark the start of a weekend storm that may bring up to 3 inches to the region.
The rain will taper off this afternoon, only to return in the evening and Friday morning. Saturday will bring the heaviest rain, which will quiet down Sunday into Monday.       The weather service has issued a winter storm warning for areas above 5,000 feet, where 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected. Snow levels on Thursday morning were at 2,000 feet but are expected to rise to 6,000 feet, said Cline.
TODAY : Showers, High: 53 °F
TONIGHT: Showers, Low: 43 °F
FRIDAY: Rain Likely, High: 57 °F
FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain, Low: 47 °F
SATURDAY: Rain, High: 55 °F
SATURDAY NIGHT: Rain, Low: 48 °F
SUNDAY: Rain, High: 59 °F
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain Likely, Low: 48 °F
MONDAY: Showers, High: 63 °F   

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/02/06/6133861/sacramento-area-storms-to-last.html#storylink=cpy
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 06, 2014, 10:57:25 AM
Now back to Natural Gas, thanks Tim and Ruby_99. Interesting that they did an 8 Bcf revision. Chesapeake released some data for capital expenditures and production. They will be down for another quarter, before improving if I read it correctly.
 
 
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 06, 2014, 11:57:07 AM
I noticed CHK capex spending going to drop 20% from mid 13 levels. So over longer term production looks to drop.
But who knows how many stranded wells they have. They sure seem to have poor timing, production down when prices up.
I sure hope RRC's 612% increase applied to my unit. slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 06, 2014, 01:31:04 PM
I am guessing that they have a couple hundred in the Marcellus, but definitely over 200 in the Utica.

 If I were an investor in, or Landowner Lessor to Chesapeake ; I would want to know how many wells that they have only partially completed, and if they are still cutting costs by partial completions leaving Natural Gas in the ground? Does this invalidate Leases due to any implied covenant to fully develop?

What is their plan to fully monetize those wells by going back and completing them?

 From 2012: " Enerplus Q2 call, Confirms Toe-completions still happening for savings:"

http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,17249.msg223903.html#msg223903 (http://www.naturalgasforums.com/smf/index.php/topic,17249.msg223903.html#msg223903)



I noticed CHK capex spending going to drop 20% from mid 13 levels. So over longer term production looks to drop.
But who knows how many stranded wells they have. They sure seem to have poor timing, production down when prices up.
I sure hope RRC's 612% increase applied to my unit. slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 06, 2014, 03:24:04 PM
and now this
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Cal-ISO-Electricity-Power-Flex-Alert-244044021.html (http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Cal-ISO-Electricity-Power-Flex-Alert-244044021.html)

2:33 PM Pacific time 2/6/14
Quote
"A shortage of natural gas triggered by extreme cold weather in much of the United States and Canada is impacting fuel supplies to Southern CA power plants and reducing electricity generation," the operator's statement said.

This is Insane. Seems someone is concerned about Natural gas shortages now.
Hold onto your hats boys and girls. crazy crazy crazy crazy

link to current CA ISO alerts:
http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx#Flex (http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx#Flex)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on February 06, 2014, 07:09:32 PM
The lead story in today's EIA website was about how California, a major producer and consumer of hydroelectric power, is seeing a sharp drop in hydro production due to the drought.  As to natural gas in that state, it's the curious fact that despite having to purchase so much from other states and transport it fairly long distance, the price at the points of sale in California have been for the most part quite low over the years.  It would seem that California had the advantage that the sparsely populated and low consumption Rocky Mountain states  were forced to sell their natural gas cheaply to the only comparatively nearby buyer into a buyers' market.  Perhaps that situation where the buyer has the upper hand is about to change.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on February 07, 2014, 03:51:12 AM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
>>>> It's certainly been an Old Fashioned Winter in much of the country with lots of cold and snow.  But in a large portion of the Southwest it's been extremely mild and drought is becoming ever more worry some, especially in California.  And apparently that California drought is going to affect the demand for natural gas.  There is a news story today carried in the Sacramento Bee explaining how electric utilities in California are planning on considerably less low cost hydroelectric power and a lot greater reliance on replacement power from natural gas fired generators, especially in the peak demand months of the summer.


THE California drought:

Excellent excellent article about why California can't seem to figure out how to develop/manage their water resources.

http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2014/02/06/a-tale-of-two-droughts-n1790132/page/full

Probably the BEST article of its kind that really hits the problem right on the head.



excerpt:

Californians have not built a major reservoir since the New Melones Dam more than 30 years ago. As the state subsequently added almost 20 million people, it assumed that it was exempt from creating any more "unnatural" Sierra lakes and canals to store precious water during California's rarer wet and snow-filled years.

Then, short-sightedness soon became conceit. Green utopians went further and demanded that an ailing 3-inch bait fish in the San Francisco delta receive more fresh oxygenated water. In the last five years, they have successfully gone to court to force millions of acre-feet of contracted irrigation water to be diverted from farms to flow freely out to sea.

Others had even grander ideas of having salmon again in their central rivers, as they recalled fishing stories of their ancestors from when the state population was a fifth of its present size and farming a fraction of its present acreage. So they too sued to divert even more water to the sea in hopes of having game fish swim from the Pacific Ocean up to arid Fresno County on their way to the supposedly ancestral Sierra spawning grounds.

The wages of both nature's drought and human folly are coming due. Unless it rains or snows in biblical fashion in the next 60 days, we could see surreal things in California -- towns without water, farms reverting to scrub, majestic parks with dead landscaping -- fit for Hollywood's disaster movies.

Instead of an adult state with millions of acre-feet stored in new reservoirs, California is still an adolescent culture that believes that it has the right to live as if it were the age of the romantic 19th-century naturalist John Muir -- amid a teeming 40-million-person 21st-century megalopolis.

The California disease is characteristic of comfortable postmodern societies that forget the sources of their original wealth. The state may have the most extensive reserves of gas and oil in the nation, the largest number of cars on the road -- and the greatest resistance to drilling for fuel beneath its collective feet. After last summer's forest fires wiped out a billion board feet of timber, we are still arguing over whether loggers will be allowed to salvage such precious lumber, or instead should let it rot to enhance beetle and woodpecker populations.

In 2014, nature yet again reminded California just how fragile -- and often pretentious -- a place it has become.


California's phoney drought:

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/369490/print


excerpts:

Predictably, a man-made drought began.


 ... hundreds of billions of gallons of water that would in other areas have been sent to parched farmland have been diverted away from the Central Valley and deliberately pushed out under the Golden Gate Bridge and into the Pacific Ocean, wasted forever, to the raucous applause of Luddites, misanthropes, and their powerful enablers. The later chapters of “The Decline and Fall of the United States” will make interesting reading.




As an exasperated Harry Cline, of the Western Farm Press, put it in February 2012, last year “800,000 acre-feet of water went to waste based on the science of four buckets of minnows. That is enough water to produce crops on 200,000 acres or 10 million tons of tomatoes; 200 million boxes of lettuce; 20 million tons of grapes. You get the picture?”

“When they do their fish surveys,” the California Water Alliance’s Aubrey Bettencourt tells me, with a wry smile, “they kill thousands of the smelt. It’s ridiculous. Last year they killed 3,500.” In other words, I suggest, the government kills ten times the number that are allowed to be killed every year in order to find out how many have died.

“Right.”

“Meanwhile,” Bettencourt laughs, “upstream, the state government is planting non-native striped bass to help the fishing industry and placate the fishermen.” The great joke? “These feed on the Delta smelt.”

Politically, agriculture is in a difficult spot. California’s water system was designed to balance municipal, industrial, and agricultural interests. Now a new player — environmentalism — has been added to the equation, and its share of the spoils has had to come from somewhere. That somewhere has been agriculture. “No politician is going to screw over the needs of industry or of people,” Bettencourt explains. “That would be political suicide.” So, they take the water away from the farms instead. “Farmers still pay for the water, even if they don’t get their allocation,” she notes. Last year, farmers got only 40 percent of the water they bought.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 07, 2014, 08:31:14 AM
NG at $4.94
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 07, 2014, 08:43:08 AM
Looks like production was down in January 2014 compared to December, but up around 3% compared to January 2013. Freeze offs?

"U.S. Natural Gas Output Down 1.1% in January: Platts' Bentek Energy
Year-Over-Year January Production Was Up 3.2% From 2013"
 
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-natural-gas-output-down-11-in-january-platts-bentek-energy-244025861.html (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-natural-gas-output-down-11-in-january-platts-bentek-energy-244025861.html)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 07, 2014, 11:42:35 AM
NG at $4.94

WTI (US oil) now $99+
That will be a sweet spot for prices $95 oil and $5 gas. At least from my point of view, I like that $5 price for natural gas. 
 keeping that GGE  (Gasoline Gallon Equivalent) spread high enough to keep conversions profitable.
handclap handclap handclap
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 07, 2014, 12:23:45 PM
Maybe get that pipeline built, you know the one , and demand for lighter Condensate and Natural Gasoline for mixing might increase. RRC and some of the Ohio drillers could benefit.    Let's get the stuff out of trains and to the gulf.

NG at $4.94

WTI (US oil) now $99+
That will be a sweet spot for prices $95 oil and $5 gas. At least from my point of view, I like that $5 price for natural gas. 
 keeping that GGE  (Gasoline Gallon Equivalent) spread high enough to keep conversions profitable.
handclap handclap handclap
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: realman on February 07, 2014, 01:29:03 PM
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.7023531&lon=-76.24791199999998&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wyalusing%2C%20PA%2018853%2C%20USA#.UvVOyDiYbL8 It looks like global Warming all over again. :)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 08, 2014, 05:36:36 AM


  I would like to see prices stabilze around $4.50. Just like that number for the time being.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: 77flh on February 10, 2014, 05:57:52 PM
bloomberg $4.59
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: 77flh on February 10, 2014, 06:01:23 PM
TGP Zone 4 marcellus avg $2.58.  Millennium avg $7.91
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 11, 2014, 04:00:20 PM
$5.00 after hours futures. Tim, you are off the hook. For awhile I thought you might have as bad a call as me on prices. I was only off by about $1.50 .....
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 11, 2014, 04:31:34 PM
For now anyway. slaplaugh
Have you seen forecast for SE US? Sounds real bad.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 11, 2014, 05:29:33 PM
Yes, Georgia again. I hope member G59#### stays safe, and anyone else in the path.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 13, 2014, 09:04:43 AM
Another big NG withdrawal announced this morning -- a bit more than many predicted.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Propane storage continues to plunge, with prices moderating some from the previous two weeks. The total in storage is already approaching the five year seasonal low, with the lows normally occurring in March or April.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 13, 2014, 09:13:48 AM

  NG just went above $5.00. Stay warm. Burn nat gas.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 13, 2014, 09:57:26 AM
See the green text in the quote. 750 was a great estimate Zach! Actual was 737.
 

Powerburn is going to apply the upgrade to their site they have been working on.   handclap
Was one of my daily visits after finding it around the time Natural Gas prices tanked into the high $1 level. Gave me a little hope seeing the results of coal to gas switching, and whatever other factors were in play. For me we bottomed at $2.17 for April, 2012 sales. Bounced back quickly from there.
 
" Monday, February 10, 2013
This website will temporarily become unavailable this Thursday, February 13, at 5pm in order to undergo a major site upgrade for roughly 60 hours. The site in its new form will return Sunday morning, February 16. This upgrade has been in the works for several months requiring innumerable hours of development and coding and will result in sweeping changes to the site. Just a few of the upgrades:  Where there are currently maybe 10 active pages and 15 graphs or charts, the new site will have nearly 60 pages and about 150 graphs, tables, and maps. Updates will be scheduled twice per day, at 8pm EDT and 7am EDT. Storage projections will be broken down by region (east, west, producing) and trends over the course of the 35 day projection period will be charted. "

 
http://powerburn.blogspot.com/ (http://powerburn.blogspot.com/)
 
Hopefully the upgrade goes smoothly.
 
Next 3 weeks of withdraws expected to be 750 BCF total
Marcellus Pricing:
Dominion South - $6.005
Leidy Hub - $7.26
Transco-Leidy Line - $5.51 (Up $1.365 Yesterday)
Millennium East - $9.50
Tenn Zone 4 200 - $6.00
Tenn Zone 4 300 - $5.50 (Up $1.225 Yesterday)
TECO M2 - $6.30
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 13, 2014, 11:17:31 AM
Starting to look like it could get below 1Tcf in storage. That could start "panic" buying. We're already below 5yr average range and still dropping fast.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 13, 2014, 11:36:46 AM
Recently read that some storage facilities are starting to encourage less of a draw, as they are getting to a point where the pressure decrease slows down the ability to release gas for delivery.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 13, 2014, 11:55:35 AM
Recently read that some storage facilities are starting to encourage less of a draw, as they are getting to a point where the pressure decrease slows down the ability to release gas for delivery.

Look at salt storage #'s. Those are easiest to withdraw from. They're ~53.6% below last year.
Next big move is going to be for storage expansion. I believe that has already begun in some areas.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 16, 2014, 05:01:44 PM

   $5.42 . Pretty good run.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on February 16, 2014, 06:41:59 PM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
>>>> It's certainly been an Old Fashioned Winter in much of the country with lots of cold and snow.  But in a large portion of the Southwest it's been extremely mild and drought is becoming ever more worry some, especially in California.  And apparently that California drought is going to affect the demand for natural gas.  There is a news story today carried in the Sacramento Bee explaining how electric utilities in California are planning on considerably less low cost hydroelectric power and a lot greater reliance on replacement power from natural gas fired generators, especially in the peak demand months of the summer.


THE California drought:

Excellent excellent article about why California can't seem to figure out how to develop/manage their water resources.

http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2014/02/06/a-tale-of-two-droughts-n1790132/page/full

Probably the BEST article of its kind that really hits the problem right on the head.



excerpt:

Californians have not built a major reservoir since the New Melones Dam more than 30 years ago. As the state subsequently added almost 20 million people, it assumed that it was exempt from creating any more "unnatural" Sierra lakes and canals to store precious water during California's rarer wet and snow-filled years.

Then, short-sightedness soon became conceit. Green utopians went further and demanded that an ailing 3-inch bait fish in the San Francisco delta receive more fresh oxygenated water. In the last five years, they have successfully gone to court to force millions of acre-feet of contracted irrigation water to be diverted from farms to flow freely out to sea.

Others had even grander ideas of having salmon again in their central rivers, as they recalled fishing stories of their ancestors from when the state population was a fifth of its present size and farming a fraction of its present acreage. So they too sued to divert even more water to the sea in hopes of having game fish swim from the Pacific Ocean up to arid Fresno County on their way to the supposedly ancestral Sierra spawning grounds.

The wages of both nature's drought and human folly are coming due. Unless it rains or snows in biblical fashion in the next 60 days, we could see surreal things in California -- towns without water, farms reverting to scrub, majestic parks with dead landscaping -- fit for Hollywood's disaster movies.

Instead of an adult state with millions of acre-feet stored in new reservoirs, California is still an adolescent culture that believes that it has the right to live as if it were the age of the romantic 19th-century naturalist John Muir -- amid a teeming 40-million-person 21st-century megalopolis.

The California disease is characteristic of comfortable postmodern societies that forget the sources of their original wealth. The state may have the most extensive reserves of gas and oil in the nation, the largest number of cars on the road -- and the greatest resistance to drilling for fuel beneath its collective feet. After last summer's forest fires wiped out a billion board feet of timber, we are still arguing over whether loggers will be allowed to salvage such precious lumber, or instead should let it rot to enhance beetle and woodpecker populations.

In 2014, nature yet again reminded California just how fragile -- and often pretentious -- a place it has become.


California's phoney drought:

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/369490/print


excerpts:

Predictably, a man-made drought began.


 ... hundreds of billions of gallons of water that would in other areas have been sent to parched farmland have been diverted away from the Central Valley and deliberately pushed out under the Golden Gate Bridge and into the Pacific Ocean, wasted forever, to the raucous applause of Luddites, misanthropes, and their powerful enablers. The later chapters of “The Decline and Fall of the United States” will make interesting reading.




As an exasperated Harry Cline, of the Western Farm Press, put it in February 2012, last year “800,000 acre-feet of water went to waste based on the science of four buckets of minnows. That is enough water to produce crops on 200,000 acres or 10 million tons of tomatoes; 200 million boxes of lettuce; 20 million tons of grapes. You get the picture?”

“When they do their fish surveys,” the California Water Alliance’s Aubrey Bettencourt tells me, with a wry smile, “they kill thousands of the smelt. It’s ridiculous. Last year they killed 3,500.” In other words, I suggest, the government kills ten times the number that are allowed to be killed every year in order to find out how many have died.

“Right.”

“Meanwhile,” Bettencourt laughs, “upstream, the state government is planting non-native striped bass to help the fishing industry and placate the fishermen.” The great joke? “These feed on the Delta smelt.”

Politically, agriculture is in a difficult spot. California’s water system was designed to balance municipal, industrial, and agricultural interests. Now a new player — environmentalism — has been added to the equation, and its share of the spoils has had to come from somewhere. That somewhere has been agriculture. “No politician is going to screw over the needs of industry or of people,” Bettencourt explains. “That would be political suicide.” So, they take the water away from the farms instead. “Farmers still pay for the water, even if they don’t get their allocation,” she notes. Last year, farmers got only 40 percent of the water they bought.

California drought ... again with the flushing all their spring runoff drinking water out into the ocean.

Yeah, this just came in a couple of minutes ago.

Cheesh.

http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2014/TWTW%202-15-14.pdf



Aaaand! ... scroll down ... because ... the magic numbers are ... EAGLE FORD!

[NO, not the car dealership!]


Aaaand! ... if you scroll ALL THE WAY down, ... OSHA is joining with EPA to shut all business down!   Yay.


[sigh]
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 17, 2014, 10:41:56 AM
Powerburn  site has estimate of -580 through the 03/14 weeks draw. That would put us right about 1100 in storage.

  $5.42 . Pretty good run.

Starting to look like it could get below 1Tcf in storage. That could start "panic" buying. We're already below 5yr average range and still dropping fast.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on February 17, 2014, 06:26:33 PM
$5.53
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 17, 2014, 09:11:14 PM
Starting to look like formed major bottom. Rig count down WPX and Shell with write-offs.
Large drawdown in storage and still have cold weather. Unless there is a cool Summer I see
problems getting storage back up. Not a good idea to go into Winter with "low" storage.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 18, 2014, 09:23:33 PM
Anyone look at futures prices? All 12 months now above $4.50 4.69. Have to go all the way out to April 2015 for $4.07. Seems no one is talking about glut now.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 18, 2014, 09:30:44 PM

  Damn, Cabot hedged almost 1 bcf/d at $4.12 for the whole year. Oh well.  :)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 19, 2014, 07:43:04 AM

  Wow, busting through $6. I can't believe it.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on February 19, 2014, 08:29:28 AM

   Over $6. I still can't believe it.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 19, 2014, 08:43:50 AM
5,4,3,2,1
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 19, 2014, 08:52:05 AM
Anyone look at futures prices? All 12 months now above $4.50 4.69. Have to go all the way out to April 2015 for $4.07. Seems no one is talking about glut now.
At the same time, there is little increase in the distant future. Only a few contracts over $5 out to the year 2026.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: zeus4513 on February 19, 2014, 09:12:47 AM
Holy Moly!  6.06!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: zeus4513 on February 19, 2014, 11:39:15 AM
Now it's 6.25. Wonder what it will look like in a month or even next week.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 20, 2014, 07:52:27 AM
"Only"  250 Bcf drawdown last week. Back below $6  :'(
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: zeus4513 on February 20, 2014, 10:26:15 AM
WOW 6.28!!
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 20, 2014, 11:06:43 AM
Hold on boys and girls, another polar vortex on the way.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: realman on February 23, 2014, 10:58:01 AM
 60 degrees today single digits on Thursday,this must be a Bi-Polar Vortex. :)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: pegysu on February 23, 2014, 05:24:51 PM
6.43      +0.30      Gota love this cold weather
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 24, 2014, 12:44:02 PM
High of 6.493 today, now at 5.478. That's a lot of jumping around going on.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: realman on February 25, 2014, 09:22:35 AM
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.7023531&lon=-76.24791199999998&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wyalusing%2C%20PA%2018853%2C%20USA#.UwzP18uYbL8 :)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on February 25, 2014, 10:27:57 AM
Holy Cow. Looks like the Short Sellers are back big time.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on February 28, 2014, 09:27:46 AM
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. 4.59
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: flyfisher on February 28, 2014, 11:56:44 AM

What`s happening?   It`s still bitterly cold outside, and now another major snow storm is heading east.  I am seeing more Robins, though....
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on February 28, 2014, 02:01:36 PM
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. 4.59

well...that's an interesting perspective, especially given the recent history of gas prices on the nymex:

Apr - 2013 $3.976
May - 2013 $4.152
Jun - 2013 $4.148
Jul - 2013 $3.707
Aug - 2013 $3.459
Sep - 2013 $3.567
Oct - 2013 $3.498
Nov - 2013 $3.496
Dec - 2013 $3.818
Jan - 2014 $4.407
Feb - 2014 $5.557
Mar - 2014 $4.855

the way it looks to me is that the march contract closed a buck higher than Decembers, and the april contract has only just begun. there's a whole month to buy gas before that one closes out.

February pricing, while a nice anomaly, was a bit unrealistic to hope for a continuation, especially since electricity providers exercised their option to switch back to coal for at least a part of their needs.

funny isn't it? what we hoped for a few short months ago, now seems disappointing. that's the problem with looking only at the nymex for pricing. well, that and few if any of us are likely to see these prices reflected in our royalty checks too.


What`s happening?   It`s still bitterly cold outside, and now another major snow storm is heading east.  I am seeing more Robins, though....

overall demand is down, production is up slightly, the latest storage report didn't show a huge decline like we saw in some of the previous ones and the front month changed.

on the bright side, there are likely to be some larger withdrawals in upcoming storage reports, storage is already low and march is looking like it's gonna be a cold one, even worse than last year.

and it really isn't that cold out. I was cutting wood earlier in just a light shirt. a couple of cold nights does not a cold wave make. still...every little bit helps.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aktony on February 28, 2014, 06:51:27 PM
Come summer, Cabot's decision to hedge a large portion of it's production at 4.12 or thereabouts might, in retrospect, appear to have been a good decision.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on February 28, 2014, 07:04:07 PM
only time will tell of course, but I'd be willing to betya a beer on that one tony...

you in?

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aktony on February 28, 2014, 07:09:35 PM
only time will tell of course, but I'd be willing to betya a beer on that one tony...

you in?

wj


I'm in!  Will collect from you at the annual MAO convention!
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on February 28, 2014, 07:13:12 PM
kinda cocky...

I think I like that.  ;)

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: duffy on March 01, 2014, 04:00:28 AM
Speaking of the MAO convention, Nags want us to get planning it, he says he knows how long it takes us to get things done  crazy. We can talk about NG prices there, (see teach i can stay on topic). slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on March 01, 2014, 04:41:17 AM
...that's an interesting perspective...
My memory only goes back 6 weeks. NG has never been lower than $4, right?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on March 01, 2014, 05:47:22 AM
MAO Convention sounds good, maybe some time in April, just stay out of the Gobbler Season, I have my eye on some slammers eating the cow dung this past week.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on March 01, 2014, 06:05:24 AM
...that's an interesting perspective...
My memory only goes back 6 weeks. NG has never been lower than $4, right?

dang ruby, pretty soon you'll have forgotten all about the father daughter dance. think about ginkgo biloba, might be worth a shot.

gas pricing cycles are way longer. years to build, sometimes many months to destroy.

and anyway, we're still in the sweet spot, with over 2 tcf of gas necessary to replenish storage for next winter. I'm betting on a good summer for pricing, at least until storage levels are comfy again. blistering heat this summer would be icing on the cake.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: donegal on March 01, 2014, 07:13:13 AM


funny isn't it? what we hoped for a few short months ago, now seems disappointing. that's the problem with looking only at the nymex for pricing. well, that and few if any of us are likely to see these prices reflected in our royalty checks too.




wj


Right on!  Kinda' reminds me of folks watchin' one of them Collector Car Auctions on TV & seein' a TOTALLY restored '57 Chevy  sell on there for TONS of money. They say, "Why that car looks jus' like the one I got." So they go & think their '20 footer' car is worth them same kinda' numbers & try sellin' their car at THAT price in the local paper.  Then when they end up with NO buyers, they wonder why.  That auction price wasn't necessarily a statement of value on all 57 Chevy's everywhere in any condition, just what THAT one was worth to someONE on THAT day at THAT place.

Naturally, everyone wants top dollar for their gas, but jus' cause someone else is gettin' it  at some hub don't mean your ever gonna' get it for  yours. Time, place, quality, prior contractural obligations all factor into what ya' can expect to get for your gas.

For us simple Royalty Recipients followin' the nat gas posted market price is 'bout like watchin' the weather.............Highs & Lows, always changin', hard to predict, sumthin' to talk about, you can like it or hate it, but there really ain't  nuthin' yer gonna' do about it.


Donegal
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: donegal on March 01, 2014, 07:24:36 AM
Speaking of the MAO convention, Nags want us to get planning it, he says he knows how long it takes us to get things done  crazy. We can talk about NG prices there, (see teach i can stay on topic). slaplaugh

Way to go, Duff!!   Yer stayin' on Topic real good, Son. The whole school is proud of ya'.....& yer folks is too!  (Kid's doin' so much better now.  Whew!  It's been a real Tug o' War tryin' to get him there. ;)  Used to be the  only way we could get him to stay on Topic was if we tied his feet to the stirrups.)  ;D
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: black dog on March 01, 2014, 05:37:24 PM
MAO Convention sounds good, maybe some time in April, just stay out of the Gobbler Season, I have my eye on some slammers eating the cow dung this past week.

firecutter

Those old birds taste pretty crappy. I guess their sense of smell is not as good as their eyesight. A hot meal is a hot meal in this kind of weather though. Yum.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on March 02, 2014, 09:26:00 AM
Yep Black Dog those big Gobblers may not be able to smell, but they have good eyes, many a day they have seen me blink and spoof they were gone.
Woops sorry got off Topic, some of the MAO gang will make me buy a round for doing so.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 02, 2014, 10:06:00 AM

  The current ng price at about 4 and a half dollars is perfect for everyone involved in the business.  Not too cheap for the sellers and not too expensive to scare away buyers. Especially the for power generation, transportation and LNG exports. We need those buyers to create new demand.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 02, 2014, 10:47:33 AM
macal,
  I agree ~$4.50 would make a good minimum with ~$5.50 Max. Anything above $6.00 and you kill conversions to natural gas and drilling would pick up too much.

 We may see a short term trade above $7.00 If those storage numbers get below 1 Tcf and injection season starts much later than normal. Than if we move into hot weather skipping spring who knows.

 There are also some big political risks that are going to effect things. With Russia moving into Ukraine and working on navel bases in South Amercia. China "sabre rattling" in south china sea. North Korea test launching missiles into sea of Japan. How long before something bad (worse than normal) happens in Middle East.

Putin would love to see $130 or higher oil prices. Who knows what kind of sweet things he's whispering into Egypt's ear.

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on March 02, 2014, 11:13:34 AM

  The current ng price at about 4 and a half dollars is perfect for everyone involved in the business.  Not too cheap for the sellers and not too expensive to scare away buyers. Especially the for power generation, transportation and LNG exports. We need those buyers to create new demand.
>>>> I think I would amend your statement above to restate it as the present range of prices are perfect for some companies looking to expand their market share, specifically those in the best of the shale regions with the lowest cost of production per unit.  There's quite a few companies right now that need considerably more than the current price to get back costs and have the considerable investment capital left over to drill the future wells that will replace current wells.  A while back there was a chart shown in an annual report by (I believe) Range Resources compiled by a stock brokerage energy analyst with estimates of the break even point for several dozen oil/gas companies.  More than half of them, especially those with most of their operations in the Gulf of Mexico, needed to make considerably more than the current price to have a sustainable future in the natural gas business.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 02, 2014, 01:24:46 PM

  Putin just wants to secure his Navy and Air bases in the Black Sea. I don't blame him for that. Anything more then its a different story.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on March 02, 2014, 03:07:58 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/ukraine-tension-seen-stoking-gas-crude-prices-when-markets-open.html
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 02, 2014, 03:42:11 PM

  Putin just wants to secure his Navy and Air bases in the Black Sea. I don't blame him for that. Anything more then its a different story.
Yeah that's all he wants. How long before plays same game with Romania. Guess Georgia just don't have any ports.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: moldyoak on March 02, 2014, 04:07:11 PM
Whew!  I thought he was just protecting Russians within Crimea and Ukraine, you know?  He's simply acting as a 'liberator' in the same fashion as some other guy, can't remember his name at the moment, was merely protecting and liberating Germans in Austria and Poland.  No need for alarm.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: realman on March 02, 2014, 05:07:44 PM
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.8857941&lon=-77.4931403&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Westfield%2C%20PA%2016950%2C%20USA#.UxPUlMuYbL8 Looks like global warming coming back again. slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on March 02, 2014, 05:47:08 PM
looks like everyone has settled into the new front month.

moving up. $4.73

5 bucks before the end of the week ish?

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 02, 2014, 06:33:36 PM
Bad news. My guess is we are going to run above $5 again . Since I am a contrary indicator, must be going lower.

looks like everyone has settled into the new front month.

moving up. $4.73

5 bucks before the end of the week ish?

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 02, 2014, 06:38:59 PM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 02, 2014, 11:44:01 PM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.


Russia supplies about 25% of Europe's gas needs, and half of that is pumped via pipelines running through Ukraine. Moscow has cut off that flow in past disputes with Kiev and a disruption could push up energy prices for businesses and households.

In past recent years, Russia has tried and succeeded in influencing European decision making by cutting off Europe's natural gas.

The "problem" is that Russia is so corrupt that they need to get a very high price for their oil and gas.   But now the upstart Americans have figured out this fracking thing.  Which allows cheap plentiful natural gas.


Russia needs expensive scarce natural gas ... so they can get a high retail price from Europe.

George Soros ALSO needs expensive scarce natural gas.

[Starting to see a connection ... a mutuality of interests ... a "correlation of forces" ... here?]

So, these berks are trying to work together, without making it look like they are working together.


Ukraine is in a powerful position, although they may not realize it.

Cyberwarfare is THE THING nowadays.   Every little Bulgarian in his mom's basement is a mischievous code writer.   Doesn't take much to take a Soviet nuclear power reactor off-line.

Some interesting reading out there about how to screw up somebody's power grid or energy grid ... the SCADA system for a pipeline.   And how it has happened before.

We are all interconnected.

Putin should remember that.

Swiss bank accounts and Lukoil billing systems can get screwed up pretty easily.   Also the temperature control system in his dacha.

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 02, 2014, 11:49:29 PM
Ukraine also manufactures a lot of Soviet weapons systems  ... you could look it up.

Doesn't take much to screw all that up.

The Soviet Army also has a lot of "minorities" in it; and they don't like the Soviets very much.


The Russian population has a little problem with drugs and alcohol ... to the extent that their population is declining ... rapidly.

The Russians are imploding.

They just don't want to recognize it.

They need to be reminded of how desperate their demographics and economics really are.



The reason why the French get 80% of their electricity from nuclear is so that they won't be able to be held hostage to the Russians and to the "middle-east".

The anti-nuclear activists were able to screw up the American and European nuclear power programs, so ... now ... "WE" have vulnerability problems.   [Math is hard.  And you need math.  With the new UN-sponsored "21" program, we don't have math anymore.]

China and Korea are working overtime to build nuclear power plants.

Japan shut down ALL their nukes.

For fear of tsunami's, Germany is shutting down all their nukes.   Germany used to be smart.    Anyway, so Germany is increasing use of coal instead of nuclear energy.   Coal.   Anybody see the irony?

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 02, 2014, 11:53:09 PM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.
First oil which will effect gas. Weather seems to be setting up a big move anyway. Best way to punish Russia is to fast track as many LNG plants for export as possible. Just moving G8 meeting or even expelling them will do nothing. Threatening them fat exports to Western Europe long term might get their attention.
The Nazis' we're amateurs compaired to the Russians' Under "Uncle Joe". If those former Soviet Block countries don't assist Ukraine they'll get what they deserve. Putin wants a Russian FEDERATION that looks just like Soviet Union. Putin is East German KGB. Not Stasi, KGB.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 03, 2014, 12:05:42 AM
You guys know this magazine:

http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/currentissue


http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/projects/international

Go through the back issues and read up on the Ukraine and Russian and European gas experiences with Russian adventures in shutting off the gas in winter in the past.


http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/featuredissues
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 03, 2014, 12:14:09 AM
See ... here's the Russians putting the screws on:

http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/romania-hungary-loose-ends-gas-supply


And then there's always your friendly neighborhood community activist:

http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/chevron-suspends-shale-gas-exploration-romania
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 03, 2014, 12:26:44 AM
120 price points:

http://www.naturalgasintel.com/ICE


Price points grouped geographically:

http://www.naturalgasintel.com/dailypoints?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: black dog on March 03, 2014, 04:10:42 AM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.
First oil which will effect gas. Weather seems to be setting up a big move anyway. Best way to punish Russia is to fast track as many LNG plants for export as possible. Just moving G8 meeting or even expelling them will do nothing. Threatening them fat exports to Western Europe long term might get their attention.
The Nazis' we're amateurs compaired to the Russians' Under "Uncle Joe". If those former Soviet Block countries don't assist Ukraine they'll get what they deserve. Putin wants a Russian FEDERATION that looks just like Soviet Union. Putin is East German KGB. Not Stasi, KGB.

Fast track as many export plants as possible? So that the US can pay on par with what Europe and the Far East pay? And what would that do to recent industrial growth here that is based on cheaper-than-them gas prices?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: realman on March 03, 2014, 05:09:03 AM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.
First oil which will effect gas. Weather seems to be setting up a big move anyway. Best way to punish Russia is to fast track as many LNG plants for export as possible. Just moving G8 meeting or even expelling them will do nothing. Threatening them fat exports to Western Europe long term might get their attention.
The Nazis' we're amateurs compaired to the Russians' Under "Uncle Joe". If those former Soviet Block countries don't assist Ukraine they'll get what they deserve. Putin wants a Russian FEDERATION that looks just like Soviet Union. Putin is East German KGB. Not Stasi, KGB.

Fast track as many export plants as possible? So that the US can pay on par with what Europe and the Far East pay? And what would that do to recent industrial growth here that is based on cheaper-than-them gas prices?
I think the industrial growth is related directly to the gas and oil production,more production would be more growth?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on March 03, 2014, 09:59:29 AM
Around $4.56.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 03, 2014, 11:34:35 AM
The Ukraine moving U.S. Nat gas prices? Shaking my head on that one.
First oil which will effect gas. Weather seems to be setting up a big move anyway. Best way to punish Russia is to fast track as many LNG plants for export as possible. Just moving G8 meeting or even expelling them will do nothing. Threatening them fat exports to Western Europe long term might get their attention.
The Nazis' we're amateurs compaired to the Russians' Under "Uncle Joe". If those former Soviet Block countries don't assist Ukraine they'll get what they deserve. Putin wants a Russian FEDERATION that looks just like Soviet Union. Putin is East German KGB. Not Stasi, KGB.

Fast track as many export plants as possible? So that the US can pay on par with what Europe and the Far East pay? And what would that do to recent industrial growth here that is based on cheaper-than-them gas prices?
For over 5years price of gas in US 1/3 of Asia (US $5 Asia $15) just look at all that growth in US. slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh  Seems there must be something else going on. :o Wonder what it could be?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on March 04, 2014, 02:55:51 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/04/gop-lawmakers-urge-administration-to-counter-russia-by-boosting-gas-exports/

"Republican lawmakers, while stopping short of calling for U.S. military action against Russia, say the Obama administration has another weapon at its disposal that could help Ukraine -- natural gas.

Top-ranking Republicans on Tuesday urged the administration to cut the red tape that has held up the approval process for natural gas exports to key U.S. allies. They argue that by helping Ukraine and European allies end their dependence on Russian energy, the U.S. could ultimately loosen Vladimir Putin's grip on the region. "
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 05, 2014, 03:03:46 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/04/gop-lawmakers-urge-administration-to-counter-russia-by-boosting-gas-exports/

"Republican lawmakers, while stopping short of calling for U.S. military action against Russia, say the Obama administration has another weapon at its disposal that could help Ukraine -- natural gas.

Top-ranking Republicans on Tuesday urged the administration to cut the red tape that has held up the approval process for natural gas exports to key U.S. allies. They argue that by helping Ukraine and European allies end their dependence on Russian energy, the U.S. could ultimately loosen Vladimir Putin's grip on the region. "


On the LNG World news service, 

http://www.lngworldnews.com/upton-u-s-lng-exports-can-weaken-russian-influence/


they had a link to the full House of Representatives' report:

http://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/files/analysis/20140204LNGexports.pdf

Interesting stuff.


I wonder, apart from the ginormous $5 billion LNG liquefaction trains, how much LNG capacity does the USA have in small local/regional LNG plants?   

I keep seeing press releases that this company or that company can service Florida LNG needs for truck fleets or barge service for bunkering ship fuel needs, but if we added up all those small units, how much LNG could the USA generate?

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Johnh on March 05, 2014, 06:47:37 AM
This was in the paper this morning.  Berks County is Southeast PA Reading is the main city.

Gas-to-fuels plant proposed in Berks County Written by The Associated Press | Mar 4, 2014 7:50
(Wernersville) -- A Canadian company has submitted plans to build a Berks County facility that would convert natural gas to fuels such as gasoline and propane.
Calgary-based EmberClear Corporation wants to build the facility on 63 acres in South Heidelberg Township.
The township's planning commission is to consider preliminary approval for the project during a meeting tonight.
Township manager Ron Seaman says the firm estimates that the project could cost $850 million to $1 billion and take three years to complete.
He says 900 to 1,200 people could be employed during construction and 80 to 100 workers would operate the plant once it is built.
The firm says on its website it builds facilities to convert natural gas into transportation fuels or electricity.
Published in News Tagged under Berks County, EmberClear Corporation, fuel, natural gas, plant, wernersville
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on March 06, 2014, 08:13:58 AM
we're down to 1.2 tcf in storage now after a drawdown of 150bcf.

next weeks report should get us to a little over a tcf, then with a couple more weeks of cold we should be in historically low territory. with a little luck, maybe .8 tcf by the end.

gonna be a good year. more drilling, and better prices.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 06, 2014, 02:20:32 PM
                          http://www.cnbc.com/id/101470274 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101470274)
Quote
Domestic natural gas prices are unlikely to surge—even when the U.S. is exporting to a world now paying three to four times more for gas— because of the vastness of U.S. reserves, industry experts say.

Now that's real stimulus program. That brings in revenue rather than spending borrowing money we don't have. Why I might even like a $1-2/MMBtu export tax for Infrastructure build. But would need a very strict "lock box" clause. None of the usual shifting of monies around like these clowns always do. And for goodness sake no borrowing against future revenue.

Oh and look not even a Fox News story. slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: firecutter874 on March 06, 2014, 04:15:21 PM
That's good news WJ, they will need to keep shipping NG all through the summer to get the storage back up.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 12, 2014, 11:21:49 AM
http://freebeacon.com/report-u-s-electric-grid-inherently-vulnerable-to-sabotage/
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 21, 2014, 02:27:15 AM
These storage #'s are getting LOW.
 Right now at ~1Tcf. I don't trust that number think it's closer to 800Bcf. But I'll use 1Tcf.
That's 600 Bcf below low end and 1Tcf below 5 year average.

Now just how much power do we need for those closed coal power plants.

Going to need 2.8 Tcf just to refill storage. Don't want to go into winter below average or things could get real serious. I can't figure out why NG isn't $5 now. Keep an eye on those storage numbers over this Summer. My best guess is that some injection gas for storage was bought long term on futures market.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on March 21, 2014, 06:27:46 AM
Both Cabot and Southwestern have sold through various means such as futures contracts about half of 2014's expected production at a price in the range of $4.10 to $4.50.  That would indicate to me that prices are likely to stay fairly range bound for a while.  Storage is low, but we are also moving into a time of year when energy needs in homes and other structures are fairly minimal, which can allow for a rapid recovery in storage.  Production continues to increase substantially in the Marcellus and the Utica is going to become a significant factor also as wells continue to be drilled and pipelines completed.  Some of those Utica wells have had initial rates of as much as 30 to 40 million cubic feet a day.  But I would agree that in the longer run things look more optimistic for natural gas prices.  2015 might be a price break out year when the ability to export becomes a reality.  The first LNG plant in Louisiana is supposed to be operational towards the end of 2015.  And I wouldn't be surprised that the construction schedule for that plant is accelerated.  Events in eastern Europe are showing just how important our LNG is likely to be.  Right now the best salesmen the American natural gas industry has is none other than Mr. Vladimir Putin.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 21, 2014, 09:43:36 AM


  Anyone know how much total gas is able to be piped out of the NE PA  Marcellus.  4 to 5 bcf/d ?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 21, 2014, 10:33:00 AM

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13591


http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/96251-marcellus-takeaway-capacity-significantly-increasing-on-friday
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 27, 2014, 08:50:08 PM
WTI (US) oil $101 Nat Gas $4.50. Thought with storage now 896 Bcf and still dropping price would have a run to $6 short term.
 
This is not looking right. Almost 1 Tcf below 5 year average and 0.8 Tcf below 5 year low's. Better be a mild Summer or big upswing in production. 3 Tcf just to get storage back up. Just might bring back some coal power plants back on line. I think coal supplies are low too.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15551 (http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15551)

Power outages anyone?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 27, 2014, 09:08:53 PM

   Speaking of power. How are people making out with deregulation.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on March 28, 2014, 12:18:12 AM
Oh, yes we have deregulated. We can now choose our power source. I choose coal and natural gas. No charging me for sunshine, windmills and Lollypops. Right !!! You damn fools are causing a mess. You'll expect someone else to fix your mess.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 28, 2014, 05:06:02 AM

   Speaking of power. How are people making out with deregulation.


Is that actual free deregulation?  Actual free competition?

Or fake competition?


I choose nuclear for base load.   It's the most reliable and lowest cost when the screeming meemies are off from work at the recycling center.   Doesn't kill bats and raptors.

And natural gas with  aero-derivitive gas turbines for peak load.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on March 28, 2014, 06:10:36 AM

   Speaking of power. How are people making out with deregulation.
>>>> In all too many cases not too well.  A few weeks ago there was a major article featured in the local newspaper about the perils of deregulation for  customers.  Everyone nowadays is always bombarded with offers from various companies who offer to sell electricity at a price lower than the local incumbent electric utility, which in this case was PP&L.  Savings are usually fairly modest since about one third of the typical residential bill remains a fixed cost going to the utility company to move the power around, maintain the lines, do billing, etc.  A lot of customers who went for the alternative suppliers got the shock of their lives (no pun intended of course) when they opened their statement in recent months to see that their bill had gone up by several hundred percent.  The problem was that most of those alternative suppliers have no generating capacity, but are merely resellers of other companys' power.  When we had those sub zero cold snaps and the price of electricity went up astronomically in the spot market, the sellers of electricity had to buy no matter what the price, and passed on those huge increases to their customers large and small.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 28, 2014, 08:02:39 AM


   I like the $4.50 price. I think they call it perfect pricing.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on March 28, 2014, 10:33:08 AM


   I like the $4.50 price. I think they call it perfect pricing.

Would you allow any changes for any reason, ever?

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on March 30, 2014, 07:14:38 AM

   Cabot paid $5.07 for the month of February.   As good as it will get until they get the Constitution and Atlantic Sunrise pipelines built.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on April 16, 2014, 07:01:38 AM

   Nymex price has been holding steady around $4.50. Perfect pricing for the buyers and sellers.  :)
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: bellbucci on April 16, 2014, 08:15:12 AM
Range paid $8.883/mmbtu for the month of February, but only $41.8/bbl for NGL's and $80.089/bbl for condensate. I thought the NGL price would have been better, given the spike in propane prices in the beginning of that month. The NGL price does include substantial ethane, though, which drives down the average price.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 16, 2014, 02:34:26 PM
Range paid $8.883/mmbtu for the month of February, but only $41.8/bbl for NGL's and $80.089/bbl for condensate. I thought the NGL price would have been better, given the spike in propane prices in the beginning of that month. The NGL price does include substantial ethane, though, which drives down the average price.

Those are great prices. Congratulations. 1056 Btu's if I read correctly elsewhere. Great job Range!

Am very happy with our $5.23.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Tim W.Pa on April 16, 2014, 05:53:15 PM
Ruby,
   Now you did it! I'm going to have to crunch my numbers with $8.88 MMbtu . crazy crazy

Rexx Energy gives a breakdown on their wet Utica for Ethane Extraction numbers.
        With Ethane rejection 58% of NGL's is Propane and 3% Ethane
        With Ethane extraction 20% Propane and 66% Ethane
So looks like almost all of extra NGL's are Ethane.

Didn't EPA just win court case on particulates? May get another price spike this Summer or possible shortages as they try to re-fill all that storage. The West is going to use more gas this summer as Hydro-power is limited due to extended drought.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 17, 2014, 05:03:47 PM
Nymex May is at $4.74. 24 bcf injection instead of mid to high 30s as estimated.

Maybe some demand is less price sensitive than expected?
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Rockdale on April 17, 2014, 06:00:10 PM
Nymex May is at $4.74. 24 bcf injection instead of mid to high 30s as estimated.

Maybe some demand is less price sensitive than expected?
>>> It was a nice move upwards, and perhaps was caused by something more lasting than just this latest relapse to wintry weather.  Every day that goes past brings us closer to the date when exports of surplus LNG will be possible as 3,000 construction workers continue to slog away at the massive Cheniere LNG terminal on the Louisiana coast.  And perhaps also the experience of many large scale consumers who had to pay extraordinarily high prices for gas in the spot market on the coldest days last winter is having an effect.  Paying just a little big more than in the recent past in order to lock in a futures price makes more sense when the memory is still fresh of having to pay 10 or 20 times as much in a panicky spot market for a needed commodity.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on May 23, 2014, 07:08:46 AM

   $5.25.  Cold winters and Hot summers.  Pricing lies with Mother Nature.
>>>> It's certainly been an Old Fashioned Winter in much of the country with lots of cold and snow.  But in a large portion of the Southwest it's been extremely mild and drought is becoming ever more worry some, especially in California.  And apparently that California drought is going to affect the demand for natural gas.  There is a news story today carried in the Sacramento Bee explaining how electric utilities in California are planning on considerably less low cost hydroelectric power and a lot greater reliance on replacement power from natural gas fired generators, especially in the peak demand months of the summer.


THE California drought:

Excellent excellent article about why California can't seem to figure out how to develop/manage their water resources.

http://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2014/02/06/a-tale-of-two-droughts-n1790132/page/full

Probably the BEST article of its kind that really hits the problem right on the head.



excerpt:

Californians have not built a major reservoir since the New Melones Dam more than 30 years ago. As the state subsequently added almost 20 million people, it assumed that it was exempt from creating any more "unnatural" Sierra lakes and canals to store precious water during California's rarer wet and snow-filled years.

Then, short-sightedness soon became conceit. Green utopians went further and demanded that an ailing 3-inch bait fish in the San Francisco delta receive more fresh oxygenated water. In the last five years, they have successfully gone to court to force millions of acre-feet of contracted irrigation water to be diverted from farms to flow freely out to sea.

Others had even grander ideas of having salmon again in their central rivers, as they recalled fishing stories of their ancestors from when the state population was a fifth of its present size and farming a fraction of its present acreage. So they too sued to divert even more water to the sea in hopes of having game fish swim from the Pacific Ocean up to arid Fresno County on their way to the supposedly ancestral Sierra spawning grounds.

The wages of both nature's drought and human folly are coming due. Unless it rains or snows in biblical fashion in the next 60 days, we could see surreal things in California -- towns without water, farms reverting to scrub, majestic parks with dead landscaping -- fit for Hollywood's disaster movies.

Instead of an adult state with millions of acre-feet stored in new reservoirs, California is still an adolescent culture that believes that it has the right to live as if it were the age of the romantic 19th-century naturalist John Muir -- amid a teeming 40-million-person 21st-century megalopolis.

The California disease is characteristic of comfortable postmodern societies that forget the sources of their original wealth. The state may have the most extensive reserves of gas and oil in the nation, the largest number of cars on the road -- and the greatest resistance to drilling for fuel beneath its collective feet. After last summer's forest fires wiped out a billion board feet of timber, we are still arguing over whether loggers will be allowed to salvage such precious lumber, or instead should let it rot to enhance beetle and woodpecker populations.

In 2014, nature yet again reminded California just how fragile -- and often pretentious -- a place it has become.


California's phoney drought:

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/369490/print


excerpts:

Predictably, a man-made drought began.


 ... hundreds of billions of gallons of water that would in other areas have been sent to parched farmland have been diverted away from the Central Valley and deliberately pushed out under the Golden Gate Bridge and into the Pacific Ocean, wasted forever, to the raucous applause of Luddites, misanthropes, and their powerful enablers. The later chapters of “The Decline and Fall of the United States” will make interesting reading.




As an exasperated Harry Cline, of the Western Farm Press, put it in February 2012, last year “800,000 acre-feet of water went to waste based on the science of four buckets of minnows. That is enough water to produce crops on 200,000 acres or 10 million tons of tomatoes; 200 million boxes of lettuce; 20 million tons of grapes. You get the picture?”

“When they do their fish surveys,” the California Water Alliance’s Aubrey Bettencourt tells me, with a wry smile, “they kill thousands of the smelt. It’s ridiculous. Last year they killed 3,500.” In other words, I suggest, the government kills ten times the number that are allowed to be killed every year in order to find out how many have died.

“Right.”

“Meanwhile,” Bettencourt laughs, “upstream, the state government is planting non-native striped bass to help the fishing industry and placate the fishermen.” The great joke? “These feed on the Delta smelt.”

Politically, agriculture is in a difficult spot. California’s water system was designed to balance municipal, industrial, and agricultural interests. Now a new player — environmentalism — has been added to the equation, and its share of the spoils has had to come from somewhere. That somewhere has been agriculture. “No politician is going to screw over the needs of industry or of people,” Bettencourt explains. “That would be political suicide.” So, they take the water away from the farms instead. “Farmers still pay for the water, even if they don’t get their allocation,” she notes. Last year, farmers got only 40 percent of the water they bought.

California drought ... again with the flushing all their spring runoff drinking water out into the ocean.

Yeah, this just came in a couple of minutes ago.

Cheesh.

http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2014/TWTW%202-15-14.pdf



Aaaand! ... scroll down ... because ... the magic numbers are ... EAGLE FORD!

[NO, not the car dealership!]


Aaaand! ... if you scroll ALL THE WAY down, ... OSHA is joining with EPA to shut all business down!   Yay.


[sigh]


And the Federal government comes to the rescue in an unpublicized meeting:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/05/22/228255/senate-passes-california-drought.html#emlnl=Morning_Newsletter
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on May 23, 2014, 08:17:38 AM
Nymex Natural Gas around $4.39. How have May sales prices been for Pennsylvanian zones?

Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on May 23, 2014, 08:36:56 AM


[tried to paste a letter to the editor here, but it didn't "take".]

will try again later
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mohawk70 on May 27, 2014, 10:58:58 AM
I tried to post this the other day, but it didn't take.

It is a letter to the editor of the Albury Border Mail, an Australian newspaper:



Drought trigger clear as day

When I was a kid we never had drought after drought.

Then we started with daylight saving.   We started with a little bit, but now we have six months of the year daylight saving.

It has just become too much for the environment to cope with.

It is so logical, for six months of the year we have an extra hour each day of that hot afternoon sun.

I read somewhere that scientific studies had shown there is a lot less moisture in the atmosphere which means we get less rain.

I believe this one hour extra sun is slowly evaporating all the moisture out of everything.

Why can’t the Government get the CISRO to do studies on this, or better still, get rid of daylight savings.

They have to do something before it is too late.

/s/

Chris Hill
Albury

More here:

http://www.performancecontroller.com/2012/05/the-daylight-saving-theory-on-the-cause-of-the-10-year-droughts-in-australia/
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on May 27, 2014, 03:36:18 PM
Nymex Natural Gas around $4.39. How have May sales prices been for Pennsylvanian zones?

leidy and tgpz4 have been back in the 2's for a couple of weeks now, but the others in the area are maintaining solid 3's.

not to worry, it's heating up and storage is falling farther behind every week.

we have 'til October for it to hit 5 right? I'm thinking july or august myself.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on May 27, 2014, 05:37:26 PM
Thanks, WJ. Too bad about pricing. I hope my guys have their takeaway lined up for years to come. Fingers crossed.
 
I am thinking that we will have a good idea in the next few weeks just how strong injections could be depending on supply coming on. No matter what, a lot of gas is going to be sold.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on May 27, 2014, 05:53:50 PM
i think it was you that said that in order to hit normal winter storage levels, they need to inject at the 5 year maximum rate for the rest of the year. they ain't done that so far, and I'm reading about very slow recoveries across the country and Canada.

the rig count is only up slightly, and every day wells are heading into steeper declines. with a hot summer, we should see a good bounce.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on May 27, 2014, 06:41:37 PM
Yes it was information which I read. Turns out we did hit it last week. Cabot has plenty of wells to bring on line to keep their production growing. I think others do also. The backlog for drillers does not seemed to be worked off yet. It seems to be taking longer for the decreased rig counts to make a big difference.
RBNEnergy are experts, but I am not buying the 3400 to 3500 in November which  was written in the post I quoted below.. I think there have been recent reclassifications which have skewed things higher by about 16 Bcf. Might not seem like much, but when they are projecting out to November two weeks at around 16 Bcf lower would have been a lot. I think if their general premise is correct, then the 3400 or 3500 will not be hit until December. I am probably wrong again though.      slaplaugh
"The recent storage injections indicate a pace suggesting a November inventory peak between 3,400 and 3,450 bcf"
https://rbnenergy.com/recent-injection-pace-suggests-november-inventory-peak--3400-3450-bcf
 
 
 
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on May 28, 2014, 05:39:10 PM
movin' up again ish...$4.62.

gettin' nervous yet?

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on May 28, 2014, 07:42:31 PM
I feel lucky no matter what. Maybe the new normal will be $5 plus prices.....
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 03, 2014, 02:13:07 PM
Any old farmer's folklore about this coming Winter being cold? Maybe a great long term weather forecaster? Or the Farmer's Almanac prediction?

Average futures through March are about $4.60. Then drop to around $4.15 forward. Depending on the contract premiums, one could make a bundle. Seems almost like just an average Winter would drive demand higher than the prices seem to account for.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: JEB on June 04, 2014, 07:41:04 AM
Any old farmer's folklore about this coming Winter being cold? Maybe a great long term weather forecaster? Or the Farmer's Almanac prediction?

Average futures through March are about $4.60. Then drop to around $4.15 forward. Depending on the contract premiums, one could make a bundle. Seems almost like just an average Winter would drive demand higher than the prices seem to account for.

I don't think doing that would work out for you very well at all.

Trading futures even if you know what you are doing can sometimes lead to financial ruin real quick. I have see it happen many times.  A broker friend of mine lost $750,000.00 in just three days when the market went lock limit down and he couldn't get out of the trades he was in. The safer way to trade NG is to buy the United States Natural Gas Fund.  The symbol for that fund is UNG. You still use the futures prices for your buy and sell signals. Right now the major trend and the minor trend in NG futures is up. If you do have a brokerage account and want to buy NG at this time put a buy stop to buy the UNG at $25.80.  If filled set your sell stop @ $25.00.  If all works out and NG continues to go up in price look for commercial selling @ $6.40. Right now the commercials are long 1.8 Billion contracts and the funds are short 3.8 B  The commercials are known as the smart money and they do their buying when prices are low and seem to want to hold NG prices below $6.40. If you do buy the UNG fund trail your stop real close if and when NG trades in the $6.00 range. There are no guarantee of anything in this business at all!  Myself I don't like to trade NG much because to make bigger money you need to look for markets that tend to trend up or down for long periods of time. My favorite is the S&P 500.       
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 04, 2014, 12:26:41 PM
Thanks very much Jeb for explaining the dangers of the futures markets. Not a good idea.

Heck, I can't even win a beer from Wj.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on June 04, 2014, 06:02:20 PM
$4.64 ish, we're creeping up toward the magic $5 wj wins a beer mark!

36 cents and counting down.

my winter prediction is, cold and a shortage of gas going into winter. $5+ from November on and holding from there on out occasionally north of $6 until the lid comes off when we start exporting.

rig count inches up mid 2015 in response.

bet me!

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 04, 2014, 08:17:34 PM
Already have the bet. I am with you, $5 plus from November on. I win......
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on June 04, 2014, 08:21:34 PM
hey!

now wait just a doggone minute....you turned that around on me!

 slaplaugh
   wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on June 05, 2014, 10:45:16 AM
$4.69.

31 to go.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Isheoktoday on June 05, 2014, 01:23:14 PM
Not bad. This is with a few weeks of strong injections. I think I will lose again, as a couple low numbers in a row could quickly move it to the fives. Still only on pace for 3400 to 3500 in November at this stage.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: aubrey on June 05, 2014, 04:07:16 PM
closed at $4.70, and up another penny after hours.

slow and steady wins the race.

wj
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: 3darcher2 on January 28, 2015, 11:40:40 AM
Not sure why this thread suddenly died.  Resurrecting this gigantic thread, could we get some updated prices paid over the past month or two?

Price and deductions.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: Pops on January 28, 2015, 12:11:18 PM
Talisman, no deductions:
October 2014 $3.503 & $3.510
November 2014 $3.299 & $3.302
December 2014 received direct deposit but pricing not online yet. Estimated at $3.30
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: mrhar on January 28, 2015, 01:12:20 PM
November (Sept Production)
  Statoil: $1.84, deductions 0
  Chk: $ 2.275, deductions .88
  Anadarko:  $2.276, deductions .59
  Mitsui: $2.14, deductions .93

December (Oct Production)
  Statoil: $1.91, deductions 0
  Chk: $2.27, deductions .89
  Anadarko: $2.23 deductions .58
  Mitsui: $2.04, deductions.89
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: macal on January 28, 2015, 02:03:49 PM
 
  Best I've seen. Selling to Canada? Referring to the Talisman. I understand they don't deduct on any leases. True?
  If so they are the best.
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: gunner on January 28, 2015, 05:17:17 PM
Talisman (into Millenium near Van Etten, NY)

production month, no deductions

Sept $1.978
Oct $1.861
Nov $2.958
Title: Re: NG price
Post by: shinobi on April 07, 2015, 06:39:00 AM
Tuesday, 7 April 2015 9:38am ET


$2.67
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on April 07, 2015, 06:48:30 AM
  Cabot February 2015, $2.21 with $0.53 in deductions. Tough times for Cabot.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Wax on April 07, 2015, 06:57:26 AM
These averages posted by US energy commission, are great for Wolf but terrible for landowners.

Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged
$4.39/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2014, to average $3.07/MMBtu in 2015 and
$3.48/MMBtu in 2016, largely unchanged from last month’s STEO.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Rockdale on April 07, 2015, 09:11:06 AM
The EIA site has what they call the "selected spot price" for natural gas.  Today's prices show the cheapest place to buy in the United States is the mid-Atlantic at $1.77, the second cheapest to be New York City at $2.01 and the most expensive to be New England at $4.14.  An amazing difference in just a short distance.  And I think a very good indicator of just how profitable a pipeline would be that connects the two regions.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on April 07, 2015, 11:54:16 AM
The EIA site has what they call the "selected spot price" for natural gas.  Today's prices show the cheapest place to buy in the United States is the mid-Atlantic at $1.77, the second cheapest to be New York City at $2.01 and the most expensive to be New England at $4.14.  An amazing difference in just a short distance.  And I think a very good indicator of just how profitable a pipeline would be that connects the two regions.

The New Englanders seem to be saying "We don't need no stinking' pipeline".

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/12/05/face-opposition-company-reroute-pipeline/wj0k4WbfYr5FFyyHtPmFGJ/story.html
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Rockdale on April 07, 2015, 12:24:19 PM
The EIA site has what they call the "selected spot price" for natural gas.  Today's prices show the cheapest place to buy in the United States is the mid-Atlantic at $1.77, the second cheapest to be New York City at $2.01 and the most expensive to be New England at $4.14.  An amazing difference in just a short distance.  And I think a very good indicator of just how profitable a pipeline would be that connects the two regions.

The New Englanders seem to be saying "We don't need no stinking' pipeline".

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/12/05/face-opposition-company-reroute-pipeline/wj0k4WbfYr5FFyyHtPmFGJ/story.html
>>>> Mohawk, I think what we see here is yet another example of how a relatively small portion of the population has successfully managed to convey the idea that a whole region is in opposition to natural gas and its' benefits.  To those on the top of the economic pyramid the cost of energy is a relatively small portion of their annual living expense.  But for those in the middling and lower social/economic groups it matters a great deal that they are paying an inordinate amount for natural gas and electricity in New England.  And if challenged that group of fractivists among the social/economic elite can be defeated.  An excellent example being the case in New York City.  When Mayor Bloomberg got behind the Spectra Energy Pipeline that was to emerge in the West Side of Manhattan, home for legions of fractivists, all hell broke loose, with dire threats of blood in the streets as the anti's would die upon the barricades.  In reality there was no bloodshed.  Instead the pipeline was installed, with no problems to speak of so far, and New Yorkers, including the fractivists, now enjoy the benefits of unlimited energy at a reasonable cost, with the fractivists tactfully forgetting all of their dire predictions of imminent ruin.  I expect the same in New England by and by.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on April 08, 2015, 07:03:15 AM
The EIA site has what they call the "selected spot price" for natural gas.  Today's prices show the cheapest place to buy in the United States is the mid-Atlantic at $1.77, the second cheapest to be New York City at $2.01 and the most expensive to be New England at $4.14.  An amazing difference in just a short distance.  And I think a very good indicator of just how profitable a pipeline would be that connects the two regions.

The New Englanders seem to be saying "We don't need no stinking' pipeline".

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/12/05/face-opposition-company-reroute-pipeline/wj0k4WbfYr5FFyyHtPmFGJ/story.html
>>>> Mohawk, I think what we see here is yet another example of how a relatively small portion of the population has successfully managed to convey the idea that a whole region is in opposition to natural gas and its' benefits.  To those on the top of the economic pyramid the cost of energy is a relatively small portion of their annual living expense.  But for those in the middling and lower social/economic groups it matters a great deal that they are paying an inordinate amount for natural gas and electricity in New England.  And if challenged that group of fractivists among the social/economic elite can be defeated.  An excellent example being the case in New York City.  When Mayor Bloomberg got behind the Spectra Energy Pipeline that was to emerge in the West Side of Manhattan, home for legions of fractivists, all hell broke loose, with dire threats of blood in the streets as the anti's would die upon the barricades.  In reality there was no bloodshed.  Instead the pipeline was installed, with no problems to speak of so far, and New Yorkers, including the fractivists, now enjoy the benefits of unlimited energy at a reasonable cost, with the fractivists tactfully forgetting all of their dire predictions of imminent ruin.  I expect the same in New England by and by.

Rock,

Your comment that a "relatively small portion of the population has successfully managed to convey the idea that a whole region is in opposition to natural gas and its' benefits." accurately reflects what has been going on with the entire energy sector.

Al Capp referred to them as Students Wildly Indignant About Nearly Everything".

SWINE

In our current world, a literal handful of computer kids can hijack an entire discussion.

This is going on, not only with the energy sector, but also with the water sector, as in California.

They may be radicals or just kids having fun.   Can't change a light bulb, but they can cause trouble without getting into criminal charges themselves.

In some cases, we already know they are funded by very wealthy individuals who have a financial interest in the failure of the United States natural gas sector.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on April 08, 2015, 10:30:55 AM

  The feds understand the need for these pipelines. Lot of opposition from state and local government.
 Also the antis. Then the landowners concerns and getting ROWs. It's a long hard road.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 10, 2015, 04:38:09 AM
Friday, 10 April 2015 7:37am ET


$2.54
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: firecutter874 on April 10, 2015, 05:31:17 AM
Thanks Shin
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: JEB on April 10, 2015, 06:11:25 AM
Friday, 10 April 2015 7:37am ET


$2.54

Key support was $2.88 at the .786 retracement line. Looks like now NG is in a position to drop toward the April 2012 low of $1.90.  If you are short NG on the futures a good place for your buy stop and also to reverse and go long is at $2.91.  I trade Oil not NG but I do follow NG. I am still short Oil and still looking for Oil to trade lower. We saw the Dollar move higher yesterday and the dollar is negatively correlated to NG and Oil. If the dollar continues to move higher the price of Oil and NG will move lower. You can tell a lot about where the prices of commodities are headed just by keeping track of the price of the dollar.
You can also make some money doing this. If you are short commodities you should be long the dollar because when the dollar is going up the price of commodities will be going down. This strategy works great when you can identify a downtrend like the one we have seen in the price Oil since last July. This strategy works just as well when prices reverse. If the trend of the dollar is down then you short the dollar and go long Oil.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 10, 2015, 06:28:10 AM
That's all well and good.  But here is what I know for certain:

Last time I posted a price was three days ago, on Tuesday morning, at $2.67.  Now the price is $2.54.  As a landowner in the "natural gas sellin' business", that sucks.  I want the price to be trending up, not down.  There are no desirable natural gas sales at these levels . . . only fire sales.

Also it's happening really slowly, but I'm noticing the weather is becoming warmer . . . but no where near warm enough for air conditioning.  That also sucks.  "Shoulder season" sucks.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 14, 2015, 03:01:34 PM
Tuesday, 14 April 2015 5:56pm ET


$2.53

It's circa three trading days since the last print here.  Price in the interim descended but seemed to bounce off $2.50 and hold near this moment's level.

Future?  Who knows.  The weather is warming, but not enough for air conditioning.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Tim W.Pa on April 14, 2015, 11:29:50 PM
<deleted>
 
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 15, 2015, 05:48:44 AM
Guys I have fairly good radar when it comes to asinine liberal activism/environmentalism.  Still this might be in error:

I do not sense the focus of our opposition is in New England.  Yeah, sure, I realize they are all liberal nut cases up there.  But I do not have the feeling they detest our natural gas as do people living in the Middle Atlantic states, and especially in the metropolitan areas of those states.

New York City, Philly, all of NJ, Baltimore and eastern Maryland, even Scranton/Wilkes-Barre . . . these are the places our opponents are concentrated and extreme . . . . nearly insane in my view.  But  Boston/Portland/Hartford/Providence?  OK, if there is rabid opposition to us coming out of those places I'm not feeling or seeing it.  And I follow Boston fairly closely, virtually on a daily basis.

Boston people are incredibly extreme liberals.  But when it comes to global warming, they do not (at least to me) seem to have much to say.  Maybe over nine feet of snow last winter gave them second thoughts!  I dunno.

I have long had the belief that if we can somehow pipe our NG across (eastern) NY State, and on into New England, we will be in the tall alfalfa.  Like I said, maybe I'm wrong.  But that's how I see things.  The authentic, and most focused, fractivist jackasses are in (mainly downstate) New York.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 17, 2015, 05:40:39 AM
Friday, 17 April 2015 8:37am ET


$2.66

Up a little bit.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on April 17, 2015, 09:58:49 AM
terrible weather out west. there have been unprecedented 1+ bcf/d withdrawals from storage out there so far this april, dragging storage farther below the 5 yr. average.

as well, eastern storage fell below the average with winter hanging on here into early april, but last week injection season finally kicked off with 15 bcf going back in.

now is when the pain starts, and with robust production expected in the northeast particularly, the next 6 months will bring even more pain for royalty owners.

and once again of course, I have to point out that although henry is in the mid $2's, Marcellus region pricing lags far behind. zone 4 is closing in on a buck a thousand again.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 17, 2015, 10:24:59 AM
Thanks for the information.

Heard
about some pricing pains in SWPA also, but some  have maintained ok so far. Utica is taking off, so I hope the companies are set up with transportation into many markets. Some exponential growth over the next few years. Just as the NEPA market had in the early years.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Tim W.Pa on April 17, 2015, 11:10:23 PM
<deleted>
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Isheoktoday on April 18, 2015, 08:19:55 AM
Good points Tim.

Southwestern has used excess transportation to profit. They have also quantified the amount which they realized in 2014 due to having it as over $200 million. When they bought the around 46K acres in NEPA from WPX, they added another 260 Million Cubic Feet per day of firm. Most of it was not being used by WPX who was only producing about 50 Million Cubic Feet per day in that area.

 Firm transportation has been a great benefit for some companies, but can also cost them if they do not have a buyer on the short term market when they do not fill it.

"In 2014, our team was able to expand our firm transportation portfolio to 1.4 billion cubic feet per day, which gives us the capacity we need to continue our strong growth in that area over the next few years. In 2014 we realized over $200 million in additional revenue as a result of our firm transportation and sales portfolio compared to selling directly into local production zone industries.



That's the areas I'm calling East Coast Liberal. (New York City area, Philly area, most of NJ, eastern Maryland and most of Massachusetts) They will lose lots of tax revenue and jobs when they don't have new pipelines and LNG export facilities. Oh but they'll want a Severance Tax and a carbon tax too. This is another example of why the Founders gave us a Senate.
 
Could get interesting as some O&G producers have excess pipeline capacity. They just might make money buying gas cheep from others and using that pipeline capacity to move it where it's needed.
   Buy gas for $1.97 pay $0.50 shipping and sell it for $2.70 that's a $0.23 profit.
   Now assume the O&G company expected to pay for that excess capacity for 2 years. At a cost of $0.25. So instead of "losing" that $0.25 you now make $0.23 +expected loss of $0.25 that's a $0.47 swing. Sure might look good on the balance sheet.
 Now if you get that to a premium market of >$3.25 that's a big fat profit! Now that could get even better if they get access to a LNG export facility. It's all about getting gas to where it's most profitable.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on April 27, 2015, 02:36:50 PM
Monday, 27 April 2015 5:35pm ET


$2.49

Last time I posted here was ten days ago at $2.66
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: firecutter874 on April 27, 2015, 03:40:14 PM
Shin, Ya Gotta go the otter way.

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on April 27, 2015, 03:49:20 PM
sorry cutter, we probably won't see decent prices until the fall.

gonna be a long lean summer with price and production reductions 'til cold weather sets in again.

every market has a bottom, this is ours.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: JEB on April 28, 2015, 04:53:36 AM
sorry cutter, we probably won't see decent prices until the fall.

gonna be a long lean summer with price and production reductions 'til cold weather sets in again.

every market has a bottom, this is ours.

wj

I don't think we have seen the bottom in NG yet wj.  All time frame price charts of NG the monthly, weekly and daily are all negative,  I'm afraid we are headed for the $2.00 price range for NG.  The big question is how long will prices say that low. I think we are also going to see the price of Oil reverse down and at least test the $30.00 range. The commercial traders sold short over 9 billion dollars worth of futures and options last week of Oil. The price move up in Oil was all due to hedge fund and small traders short covering. This is not the time to be long Oil, at the present time I am waiting for another sell signal to short Oil.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on April 28, 2015, 05:05:31 AM
yes jeb, I agree.

what I was saying there is that this summer will be the bottom. come cooler weather later this year we should see a bit of a rebound.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on April 28, 2015, 05:12:26 AM

  Weather didn't seem to be much of a factor this very cold winter. It's all about takeaway. Firm transportation at least for Cabot.  It seems they have places all their bets on the Constitution Pipeline now and the Atlantic Sunrise in a couple years. SWN seems to have acquired a good share of the present firm transportation.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Rockdale on April 28, 2015, 08:44:00 AM

  Weather didn't seem to be much of a factor this very cold winter. It's all about takeaway. Firm transportation at least for Cabot.  It seems they have places all their bets on the Constitution Pipeline now and the Atlantic Sunrise in a couple years. SWN seems to have acquired a good share of the present firm transportation.
>>>> Yes it's important to have the takeaway capacity, but just as important is to have the takeaway lead to a market that pays a decent price.  New York City, traditionally a high priced market for gas, has turned into one of the cheapest places in America to buy since there is so much supply clamoring to be sold in a market with a limited capacity to utilize it.  And in the meantime, New England, usually the highest priced market to sell to, remains out of reach for much of the Appalachian Basin production.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on April 28, 2015, 10:42:04 AM
this winter wasn't cold enough to burn through enough stored gas to make much of a difference. last winter was a good one, buyers got pretty nervous and were scrambling for produced gas since storage was close to empty.

even if you have increased capacity, you still need anxious buyers.

this winter was good enough to keep us above $2 though for a while at least.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: duffy on April 28, 2015, 03:32:02 PM
this winter wasn't cold enough to burn through enough stored gas to make much of a difference. last winter was a good one, buyers got pretty nervous and were scrambling for produced gas since storage was close to empty.

even if you have increased capacity, you still need anxious buyers.

this winter was good enough to keep us above $2 though for a while at least.

wj supplies had alot to do with that also, still alot of wells coming online but fracking (but chk has cut way back on completions and development of units). That will change in 2016 according to what I'm told.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: bellbucci on April 29, 2015, 05:18:05 AM
New posting on RBN Energy on this topic. https://rbnenergy.com/my-sweet-hoard-how-natural-gas-production-trumped-storage-withdrawals-this-winter

Average demand last winter ('13/'14): 84.8 Bcf/d
Average demand this past winter ('14/'15): 84.0 Bcf/d
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 01, 2015, 12:45:13 PM
Friday, 1 May 2015 3:41pm ET


$2.78

A nice increase since my last post Monday of this week.  Sorry, I have no clue why price is up.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 01, 2015, 05:11:28 PM

   Read Williams last Announcement. Everyone is turning down the flow.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 01, 2015, 06:41:34 PM

  I just got my Cabot statement for March royalties. Gross price $2.15. Turn them way down at that price. I would be curious to know if that low price is translating into lower prices from consumers or are all the middlemen just making extra profit.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on May 01, 2015, 07:16:49 PM
Friday, 1 May 2015 3:41pm ET


$2.78

A nice increase since my last post Monday of this week.  Sorry, I have no clue why price is up.

Trade Date: May 01; Flow Date(s): May 02 - May 04

Henry                  $2.6825 $2.6600 $2.6662   0.1033 118,200 24
TGP-Z4 Marcellus $1.0400  $0.9100 $0.9594 -0.2849  66,900  24

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Pops on May 03, 2015, 06:35:04 AM
Talisman March production = $2.509
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on May 04, 2015, 07:24:28 AM
Looks like oil and natural gas prices are ever so slowly inching up.

Maybe the Saudi's need to fly in new supplies of bombs and ammo and jet fuel.   So they need the refined product.   AND  they need the cash. 

It's gonna take longer and cost more than the campaign against Khadaffi in Libya.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on May 04, 2015, 04:08:23 PM
Talisman March production = $2.509

you get paid a month ahead of us.

2/15 production:
sto $1.05
apc $1.86
mep $3.33
chk $5.07

statoil's check is 1/15 of chk's  slaplaugh

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Pops on May 05, 2015, 05:04:15 AM
Talisman direct deposits about the last Monday of the month. The payment is for the previous month's production even though the lease allows for 90 day delay in payment.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on May 05, 2015, 05:29:50 AM
I thought about doing direct deposit, but it's more fun doing it the old fashioned way.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: firecutter874 on May 05, 2015, 06:32:25 AM
Yo wj, since no one ever asks for your autograph, you just like signing the back of those checks.

 slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh slaplaugh

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: donegal on May 05, 2015, 06:34:55 AM
I thought about doing direct deposit, but it's more fun doing it the old fashioned way.

wj

 Direct Deposit??  THAT's  BAD for yer health!  Jus' gonna' lay around 'n get fat.  Why my whole exercise program revolves around walkin' ......................all the way out to the mailbox & back with my check.  8)

O.K., so maybe I ain't  no Arnold.  Least I ain't no Bruce Jenner neither,
Donegal
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 05, 2015, 07:44:30 AM
SUN EVENTS MIGHT PRESAGE HIGHER PRICES FOR OUR NATURAL GAS:

A bit of good news here, I think, if you enjoy colder weather.  This could increase demand for heating purposes in winter:

http://vencoreweather.com/2015/04/30/845-am-the-sun-is-now-virtually-blank-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/ (http://vencoreweather.com/2015/04/30/845-am-the-sun-is-now-virtually-blank-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/)

However, sorry, price as I write this is at a paltry $2.79   :(.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on May 05, 2015, 10:30:17 AM
Trade Date: May 05; Flow Date(s): May 06

TGP-Z4 Marcellus $1.5000 $1.4200 $1.4424 0.0675 34,000 9

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Tim W.Pa on May 05, 2015, 11:33:20 AM
<deleted>
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Zach on May 05, 2015, 02:52:23 PM
STATOIL w/ Deducts for Feb was 0.52/MCF
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on May 09, 2015, 06:40:10 AM
Has anybody been watching the price of natural gas over the past couple of months?

Going up!

[Price of uranium seems to have jumped up, as well.]

[So, what is going on out there?]
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: aubrey on May 09, 2015, 06:51:03 AM
some pipeline maintenance, a drop in import volumes from Canada, the power burn is up slightly, manufacturing use is up slightly and we ended the winter with a small deficit to the 5 year average, which has been recently overcome.

there has also been a significant curtailment by some companies, most notably chk, in production from all wells.

the rig count is also down, which signals a drop in production in the future.

wj
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 15, 2015, 05:48:37 AM
Friday, 15 May 2015 8:45am ET


$2.98

A nice increase since my last post of $2.79 ten days ago.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 21, 2015, 10:00:04 AM
Thursday, 21 May 2015 12:58pm ET


$2.98

No change since last post.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 26, 2015, 09:30:47 AM
WHEN EASTERN TEMPERATURES DON'T SIZZLE, NATGAS PRICES FIZZLE!!

Where the hell is global warming when we need it!!!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-fizzle-as-heat-forecast-fades-1432647418 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-fizzle-as-heat-forecast-fades-1432647418)
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: ghrit on May 26, 2015, 11:43:50 AM
WHEN EASTERN TEMPERATURES DON'T SIZZLE, NATGAS PRICES FIZZLE!!

Where the hell is global warming when we need it!!!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-fizzle-as-heat-forecast-fades-1432647418 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-fizzle-as-heat-forecast-fades-1432647418)
Must be they have sequestered enough CO2 to offset the warming trend.   headpat   slaplaugh
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Pops on May 27, 2015, 10:01:09 AM
Talisman April Production Price: $2.167
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 29, 2015, 11:36:02 AM
Friday, 29 May 2015 2:31pm ET


$2.64


My last posting was at $2.98.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 29, 2015, 12:02:04 PM

  Cabot is reporting that the Constitution Pipeline may get completed by Q3 2016. Not good.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: JEB on May 30, 2015, 05:06:35 AM
Friday, 29 May 2015 2:31pm ET


$2.64


My last posting was at $2.98.

All time frame NG charts are negative. Looks like NG is going to test the 4/12 low @ $1.90. The point and figure charting system also went short again Friday. That alone should add more downside pressure to the price of NG because a lot of traders follow that charting system.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on May 30, 2015, 07:27:59 AM
Fer shure.

Let's face it . . our Beverly Hillbillies days are receding rapidly into the mists of time's passage . . . . and they show no signs of returning very soon.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: duffy on May 30, 2015, 06:58:18 PM
Stat oil paid 1.19
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 31, 2015, 06:15:09 AM

  Duffy, you better keep milking those cows.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: duffy on May 31, 2015, 06:21:39 AM
Been gone for a couple years, just angus now, milk prices suck just like stats gas prices
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 31, 2015, 06:30:19 AM

  Price of beef has been pretty good . Lot of ups and downs for farmers.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on May 31, 2015, 07:37:15 AM

  Any chance that Statoil is selling to another company (Chesapeake) that has firm capacity on the Tennessee and can then sell at a good profit. I believe Southwestern was touting a similar deal they were doing a while back.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: firecutter874 on May 31, 2015, 07:46:13 AM
Duff, you hit the jackpot, Statoil paid me $1.13

firecutter
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on June 09, 2015, 05:06:53 AM
Tuesday, 9 June 2015 7:58am ET


$2.75

I've not posted a price since the end of last month because there is so little change and so little happening.  My last post was at $2.64;  now we are at $2.75.  Big whoop.

I am seeing stories in last couple of days that the price might go up a little because weather is anticipated to warm, which will result in higher NG demand for cooling purposes (electricity for air conditioning).  God knows weather so far has been cool, with minimal AC activity.  I see nothing lying ahead that actually will help our price in any meaningful manner;  a few cents here or there . . . who cares.   :(
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on June 15, 2015, 12:29:22 PM
Monday, 15 June 2015 3:27pm ET


$2.90

Nice bump today . . up 5+%.  Attribution is to warm weather.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 18, 2015, 06:35:30 AM
Saturday, 18 July 2015 9:24am ET


$2.87

OK, guys, here's the thing.  I have not posted for over a month simply because there is virtually nothing new.  This price seems to be range bound for now.  There is not much movement in either direction.  And for a great many landowners, the price we are receiving for our NG is far lower than this price, for reasons most of you already know.

Still, I acknowledge the interest in this thread and I note people continue to click here, so I'm doing this update.  In recent days, with the first really warm weather of 2015 finally on the way, the price is receiving some support from anticipated air conditioning use.  But we have reached what statistically is the very warmest portion of the year.  Air conditioning load until now has, frankly, stunk.

Where the price of NG heads from here I dunno.  But there is an absolute surfeit of NG out there, so prospects are not great.

Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: JEB on July 19, 2015, 07:10:05 AM
Saturday, 18 July 2015 9:24am ET


$2.87

OK, guys, here's the thing.  I have not posted for over a month simply because there is virtually nothing new.  This price seems to be range bound for now.  There is not much movement in either direction.  And for a great many landowners, the price we are receiving for our NG is far lower than this price, for reasons most of you already know.

Still, I acknowledge the interest in this thread and I note people continue to click here, so I'm doing this update.  In recent days, with the first really warm weather of 2015 finally on the way, the price is receiving some support from anticipated air conditioning use.  But we have reached what statistically is the very warmest portion of the year.  Air conditioning load until now has, frankly, stunk.

Where the price of NG heads from here I dunno.  But there is an absolute surfeit of NG out there, so prospects are not great.

NG has been range bound at the .786 retracement line for months. But both the daily and the weekly NG price charts are looking better. NG is a buy on the futures at $3.00.  If filled set your sell stop at $2.75. If NG takes out $3.10 then $3.24 would be the first price target followed by $3.49, $3.74 and $4.09.

You can use the UNG fund if you choose to do so. Just use the above NG futures price for your buy and sell signals.

According to one of the well tenders for CHK they have more gas than they can sell. In the Troy area CHK is only taking gas from one well per pad. He said he was told that it will stay that way until they find a use for more gas.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 19, 2015, 09:45:42 AM
Saturday, 18 July 2015 9:24am ET


$2.87

OK, guys, here's the thing.  I have not posted for over a month simply because there is virtually nothing new.  This price seems to be range bound for now.  There is not much movement in either direction.  And for a great many landowners, the price we are receiving for our NG is far lower than this price, for reasons most of you already know.

Still, I acknowledge the interest in this thread and I note people continue to click here, so I'm doing this update.  In recent days, with the first really warm weather of 2015 finally on the way, the price is receiving some support from anticipated air conditioning use.  But we have reached what statistically is the very warmest portion of the year.  Air conditioning load until now has, frankly, stunk.

Where the price of NG heads from here I dunno.  But there is an absolute surfeit of NG out there, so prospects are not great.

NG has been range bound at the .786 retracement line for months. But both the daily and the weekly NG price charts are looking better. NG is a buy on the futures at $3.00.  If filled set your sell stop at $2.75. If NG takes out $3.10 then $3.24 would be the first price target followed by $3.49, $3.74 and $4.09.

You can use the UNG fund if you choose to do so. Just use the above NG futures price for your buy and sell signals.

According to one of the well tenders for CHK they have more gas than they can sell. In the Troy area CHK is only taking gas from one well per pad. He said he was told that it will stay that way until they find a use for more gas.

Use the methane to make plastics ... as I have been suggesting for several years.

PLASTICS!
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 19, 2015, 09:52:45 AM
do two searches here on Pagaslease:

plastic

catalyst


Here is one of the finds:


And you thought that Silurians only appeared in science fiction films:

http://siluria.com/Technology/Oxidative_Coupling_of_Methane


And they mention nano-stuff!!!

excerpt:

The oxidative coupling of methane has been the target of intense scientific and commercial interest for more than thirty years due to the tremendous potential of the technology to reduce costs, energy, and environmental emissions in the production of ethylene.

In OCM, METHANE --- aka natural gas (CH4) and oxygen (O2) react over a catalyst exothermically to form ethylene (C2H4), water (H2O) and heat, according to the following reaction:

 2 CH4  +  O2   →   C2H4 +  2 H2O  +  Heat
 
While the benefits of OCM have been known since the early 1980s, past efforts did not result in a viable catalyst with performance needed for commercialization. These catalysts, while at times achieving promising yield and selectivity, were hampered by very high operating temperatures, low activities, and short lifetimes on the order of hours to days.
 
Recognizing this, Siluria applied a combination of new innovations in catalyst development, a thorough definition and understanding of the problem, and a highly motivated, creative research and engineering team to develop a unique catalyst to enable OCM to be commercialized.
 
Siluria’s OCM Catalyst

Siluria combines several highly innovative technologies to create our growing family of commercially viable OCM catalysts.

These technologies include: (1) the synthesis of nanowire catalysts allowing us to create vast numbers of unique, novel inorganic nanowire structures; (2) unique templating technologies; and (3) high throughput screening tools to rapidly evaluate hundreds of catalysts, unlike traditional methods that evaluate one catalyst at a time.
Modify message
« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 01:15:49 AM by mohawk70 »
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 19, 2015, 09:58:03 AM
The technology and chemistry of methane has been around for at least a century.

The most recent application is for "Mars Direct" ... sending a fuel factory to Mars and have it generate rocket fuel on the planet Mars.

And then sending a manned expedition to explore and use the fuel generated on Mars to power the return flight.

Interesting approach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7ZDf5KZGAk


Zubrin has been an early proponent of using our natural gas for all sorts of applications here on Earth.

Energy Victory: Winning the War on Terror by Breaking Free of Oil (Contemporary Issues) Paperback – March 24, 2009
by Robert Zubrin  (Author)


http://www.energyvictory.net
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Dogbone on July 19, 2015, 10:29:43 AM
The last thing this world needs if more PLACTICS.   ::)

Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 03:04:12 AM
The last thing this world needs if more PLACTICS.   ::)


Easy for you to say.

You're an elitist ... or, you're trying to be.


Next time you fly on a Boeing 787, take a close look ... they don't make airplanes out of aluminum any more.  Still some aluminum, but mostly carbon fiber and plastic.   

Plastic is lighter and stronger.   Saves fuel.  More efficient.

The new planes have more plastic and the newer modifications of older models substitute plastic and carbon fiber for metal.

Not just Boeing.

And not just airplanes.


Plastics allow us to compete with cheap junk products from China.

You do know that?, right?

Do the reading about stuff we can make from methane and methanol ... do some internet research on those things.   Chemistry can be hard, but you can do the research.


Also look up the word "catalyst" ... as used in chemistry.

Also, look up "resin".


Good stuff to know about.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:06:07 AM
It is more than important to do the reading.

It is essential.

Here is another place to read:

http://naturalgasnow.org/the-energy-science-that-really-will-change-everything/#more-13702


It is about science.

Check also the previous articles.

Very important.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:09:22 AM
Here is some GREAT science reading relevant to the energy and global warming & climate change issues:

http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm

Just click on the most recent and then on the previous newsletters.

Ask them to include you on the mailing list.


And consider majoring in engineering ... they will teach you the background for this stuff.


Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:26:18 AM
Go here, as well:

http://joannenova.com.au


and there are more links along the edges ...

Very important!
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:35:05 AM
Look up:

cosmic  rays

Where  do they come from?   

And, what is their relationship to cloud formation?


Why are there not any clouds in greenhouses?

Why do they install carbon dioxide generators in greenhouses? 

And what is the optimum amount of carbon dioxide?


Look up "solar corpuscles".

What are they?

What is their relationship to the solar sunspot cycle?

How long is the solar sunspot cycle?

How do sunspots relate to the Earth's climate and weather?

Ya gotta know this stuff.

Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:42:12 AM
What are the weaknesses of computer models?

Visit  www.energyadvocate.com

Subscribe to Dr. Hayden's newsletter.



Also visit:   http://www.accesstoenergy.com

Subscribe to Dr. Robinson's newsletter.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: mohawk70 on July 20, 2015, 04:46:19 AM
What does the Periodic Table of Elements have to do with natural gas?


The chemical formula for methane is CH4.

Most of natural gas is methane, but because it is a natural resource, the actual composition varies from place to place.

Please look it up.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 23, 2015, 05:34:53 AM
Thursday 23 July 2015 8:34am ET


$2.89
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: JEB on July 23, 2015, 06:34:24 AM
Thursday 23 July 2015 8:34am ET


$2.89

NG still has to hit $3.00 before it becomes a buy. The Daily price chart of NG is positive but the weekly though looking better is still negative. Also the odds of NG trading above $3.00 are not good for two other reasons.

The first reason is that the Crude Oil charts are all negative and it looks like Oil is going to test the March low of $42.03.  NG most always follows Oil.

The second reason is the strong Dollar. A strong Dollar most always means lower prices for commodities.

How can you use this to your advantage?  You can buy stock symbol DNO and you are short Oil.  You can buy the stock symbol UUP and you are long the Dollar.



Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on July 23, 2015, 06:54:23 AM

  Shinobi, you keep referring to a Henry Hub or NYMEX price that has absolutely nothing to do with pricing in the Marcellus. If you want to tell folks something they don't know and may be of value to them quote what your royalty pricing is. Cabot has been $1.67 for April and May. :(
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Rockdale on July 23, 2015, 07:38:32 AM

  Shinobi, you keep referring to a Henry Hub or NYMEX price that has absolutely nothing to do with pricing in the Marcellus. If you want to tell folks something they don't know and may be of value to them quote what your royalty pricing is. Cabot has been $1.67 for April and May. :(
>>> Looking up the subject of the divergence of the Marcellus shale prices and Henry Hub I found an article on the EIA website titled "Spot natural gas price at Marcellus trading point..." which showed the growing divergence between the Henry Hub price and the prices on the Tennessee pipeline.  The article appeared exactly 3 years ago, and it clearly shows that while Henry Hub and Tennessee average prices were nearly identical for the first 3 months of 2012, that a divergence started which has since never been bridged except for some very short periods of extraordinary conditions.  The norm nowadays in the dry gas region of northern Pennsylvania seems to be for natural gas to sell for about one half the Henry Hub price because of the deep discounts brought on by the over supply.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on July 23, 2015, 07:47:06 AM

  In Jersey, residential customers are paying on average less than $8 for natural gas . Almost $3 less than Pennsylvanians. And they are blocking pipeline expansion. This ain't right. New York and New Jersey should have to pay a premium especially since they are blocking every effort to develop and distribute our clean energy.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: Rockdale on July 23, 2015, 08:43:28 AM

  In Jersey, residential customers are paying on average less than $8 for natural gas . Almost $3 less than Pennsylvanians. And they are blocking pipeline expansion. This ain't right. New York and New Jersey should have to pay a premium especially since they are blocking every effort to develop and distribute our clean energy.
>>> Another way of approaching the situation would be not to ask consumers in New York or New Jersey to pay more, but to ask why consumers in Pennsylvania aren't paying less.  I don't think the average resident of New York or New Jersey is a fractivist.  The anti's are a small percentage of the population who makes up with their noise for their lack of numbers.  There's far too many Pennsylvanians with no access to low cost natural gas who would love to enjoy the savings in a conversion to natural gas if it was possible.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on July 23, 2015, 10:32:26 AM

  Shinobi, you are receiving royalties. Are you not?
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on July 23, 2015, 06:08:07 PM

  I know, your mother won't let you see the reports anymore.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: macal on July 23, 2015, 06:11:07 PM

  Spot price on Tennessee went below $1.00 and has hovered fairly steady at just over $1.00 lately.  ???
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shric on July 24, 2015, 04:02:56 AM
SWN paid 1.30 for May in Susq Co
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 24, 2015, 05:59:33 AM
Things are looking even worse according to this WSJ story from late yesterday.  Here are some pull quotes (my emphasis):

"Natural-gas futures have repeatedly retreated this summer as they have approached $3/mmBtu. Near-record production is capping prices and the biggest drivers of demand this year--power plants--are likely to switch back to burning coal and buy less gas if its price rises above $3/mmBtu, analysts said."

"“We’re not ready for three-buck gas,” Mr. Woods said. “Summer’s over.”"

It's a good story but to read it (for free) you must break the WSJ paywall.  Here is how to do that using Google:

1.  Click here to initiate access through Google:

https://www.google.com/search?q=natural+gas&rlz=1C1GIGM_enUS616US616&oq=na#q=natural+gas&tbm=nws (https://www.google.com/search?q=natural+gas&rlz=1C1GIGM_enUS616US616&oq=na#q=natural+gas&tbm=nws)

2.  Locate and click Google's reference to the story entitled "Natural Gas Plunges on Oversupply - WSJ".  As I write this that link is right at the top, something which will change as time progresses.

3.  Click on Google's link.  That will break the paywall and allow you to read the story.

ETA

Sorry if that link is not working for you.  When I previewed my post it was fine.  But after posting it appears to have become corrupted.

Suffice it to say you need to use Google to find the WSJ story entitled:  Natural Gas Plunges on Oversupply  dated yesterday afternoon.  If you click on their link you will be able to read the story for free.  Why the forum is messing up my effort to post the link, I dunno.

ETA

Just checked price for the "halibut".  It's down to $2.78 from $2.89 yesterday.  Geeez.
Title: Re: NG price 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 29, 2015, 11:04:22 PM
Thursday 30 July 2015 2:02am ET


$2.88
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 31, 2015, 10:36:34 AM
Friday 31 July 2015 1:34pm ET


$2.73

NYMEX is down owing to supply bulge.  Also, forecasts are for moderate weather.

We are down $0.15 just since yesterday.
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: macal on July 31, 2015, 10:45:44 AM

  No Sh!? Sherlock. Ron has a ticker running on the front page here.
  Plus it has absolutely nothing to do with pricing in Pennsylvania.
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 31, 2015, 10:57:19 AM

  No Sh!? Sherlock. Ron has a ticker running on the front page here.
  Plus it has absolutely nothing to do with pricing in Pennsylvania.

Dude, the thread has 160 thousand some odd clicks.  You, as a liberal, are of course smarter than everyone else on this forum.  So you should be smart enough not to click here again and use the "ticker" instead.  Your viewership of this thread will not be missed . . . not in the least.   
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: macal on July 31, 2015, 11:50:35 AM

  Wow, easy. You can sure dish it out but it doesn't take much to light you up.
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 31, 2015, 12:07:04 PM

  Wow, easy. You can sure dish it out but it doesn't take much to light you up.

This forum serves readers from across North America.  The price of NG is as varied as the venues served here.  It is useful to have one price, from among the many tens of prices out there, to serve as a sort of "reference" for the market.  The NG price most often cited in this regard is the NYMEX front month price.

I thought your thread for the posting of prices actually received by Pennsylvania landowners was and is a good thread.  I contributed my information there several days back.  I hope you keep your thread up, as I have tried to keep this thread up.  The two threads do not compete with one another.  They are providing entirely different information to members of this forum.

Prices I post here are actually live prices.  I check Bloomberg then immediately post the data here.  If you notice differences between my posts here and others you see on this forum, it is because my postings are of actual live, up to the second, NYMEX prices.
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: JEB on July 31, 2015, 12:21:23 PM

  No Sh!? Sherlock. Ron has a ticker running on the front page here.
  Plus it has absolutely nothing to do with pricing in Pennsylvania.

The website ticker is wrong, NG last price is at $2.715.

You are also wrong macal, because the lower the NG futures price goes the lower the price that you receive in your royalty check will go. That is why you are getting a lower price in your royalty check right now. The low NG futures price means low demand or over supply.
Title: Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2015
Post by: shinobi on July 31, 2015, 12:31:13 PM