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Author Topic: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"  (Read 10438 times)

heisoktoday

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M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« on: June 10, 2011, 10:08:57 PM »
Their news release:
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/natural-gas-full-report-0609.html

Where they have report for reading or downloading: 170 pages long.
http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/natural-gas-2011.shtml

'The study ? managed by the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) and carried out by a team of Institute faculty, staff and graduate students ? examined the scale of U.S. natural gas resources and the potential of this fuel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the work of the multidisciplinary team, with advice from a board of 18 leaders from industry, government and environmental groups, the report examines the future of natural gas through 2050 from the perspectives of technology, economics, politics, national security and the environment."

Georgeguy

  • Posts: 580
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2011, 05:04:04 AM »
Great report. Thanks for posting.
There seems to be a developing consensus that natural gas is the way to go for US energy for the foreseeable future.
Just in the past month favorable reports keep popping up on such diverse sites as Wall St Journal, NY Times, and even Stephen Colbert!!!

The benefits are so obvious--especially to us who have interest in nat gas:
1. US source
2. Decreased CO-2 production, relatively clean in production and burning
3. Abundant and cheap

Personally, I am hopeful it will become a bit less cheap.

George

Greene12468

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2011, 05:08:12 AM »
Link to the full report as a PDF:

http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/NaturalGas_Full_Report.pdf


This report is a beauty.  Lots of good stuff.  Humphry isn't going to like Table  2.2.  At a price of $6.31, a Marcellus well with 2 million cu ft per day initial production breaks even.

Table 2.6 is great too.  Expected use of water:

Haynesville: 0.8% of total supply.
Marcellus: less than 0.1%

 
« Last Edit: June 11, 2011, 05:43:43 AM by Greene12468 »

Rainman

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2011, 05:20:44 AM »
Natural gas is the biggest thing we have on our side in our battle to regain our once unchallenged industrial might.

In a few years it will be impossible not to mention NG when the discussion turns to national defense. This is the one fuel along with coal that can make us energy dependent from the rest of the world. It will stop the hemorrhage of US dollars flowing to the Middle East and allow us to maintain a healthy lead over China in various fields.

The world is becoming a smaller every day it seems. The latest developments in the middle east have people enjoying their new found freedom but at the cost of an empty stomach. With people thinking more about how to feed their families over much of the world, that fact alone  should have our government doing everything in it's power to develop our natural resources ASAP and take down any barriers hindering their development.

As China becomes more and more brazen every day makes our gas fields  something that should never be sold to outsiders such as China and other potential future foes. We should safeguard our natural resources as they are just too valuable.

This government should discontinue subsidies on ethanol and sugar as there is a shortage of food and no need for them any longer. Ethanol does nothing for us as it destroys rubber tubing and other components on outboard engines. It also reduces MPG also. Government must make decisions that are good for all of America and not one voting block.         

« Last Edit: June 11, 2011, 05:26:16 AM by Rainman »

g592314

  • Posts: 2660
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2011, 05:30:22 AM »
...
Personally, I am hopeful it will become a bit less cheap.

George

you can say that again ;)

climber1

  • Posts: 1262
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2011, 06:17:27 AM »
This is a great counter to the trash put out by Duke and Cornell.

The news release says a lot of what landowners have been saying all along. Now that MIT says it, maybe someone will freaking listen.

Rockdale

  • Anties
  • Posts: 6079
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2011, 07:07:43 AM »
I've started to read the report, and it certainly portrays the use of natural gas in a favorable light, not only here but as a global energy source.  Adding credibility is the source.  I can't think offhand of many colleges and universities with more clout in the world of science and engineering than MIT.  Maybe now the more enlightened portions of the public can start turning away from the nonsense which has distracted so many for so long (such as Josh Fox's "Gasland") and start to look at the reality which has to include the real rather than imaginary problems of drilling into the shales.  This report is just adding credibility to a very marked phenomena, which is the dramatic shift away from coal and nuclear power to produce electricity and the substitution of natural gas.  The electric utility companies have already made their billions of dollars in new investments for the last several years with more of the same planned for the future.

Greene12468

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2011, 07:10:57 AM »
Also, maybe I missed it by I don't see anything that factors in an increased resistance to nuclear in light of the Japanese disaster.


Rockdale

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2011, 07:57:59 AM »
Link to the full report as a PDF:

http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/NaturalGas_Full_Report.pdf


This report is a beauty.  Lots of good stuff.  Humphry isn't going to like Table  2.2.  At a price of $6.31, a Marcellus well with 2 million cu ft per day initial production breaks even.

Table 2.6 is great too.  Expected use of water:

Haynesville: 0.8% of total supply.
Marcellus: less than 0.1%

 
>>> What is so noteworthy in that chart on page 33 are figures which show that the Marcellus has a significantly lower break even cost than the Haynesville, Barnett, Woodford and Fayeteville shales whether the price of gas is high or low. Add in the northeast premium (even if lower than a year or two ago because of Marcellus production) with lower transportation, and I think the only reasonable conclusion is that a high yielding Marcellus well will make money even in times of comparatively low prices, and will be enormously profitable at times of high prices.

heisoktoday

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2011, 01:04:34 PM »
I would guess the report was pretty much finalized before the tragedy in Japan. Over 2 years of work went into the report.  Natural Gas issues are moving fast, as  they used the old Potential Gas Committee numbers which were 61 Tcf lower than current .

They published a release about Fukushima:
http://mitnse.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/fukushima-lessons-learned-mit-nsp-025.pdf


"A few closing thoughts"

"The initial response of the nuclear industry and the U.S government to the Fukushima accident has been measured and rational (see Appendix B).  However, the risk of over-reacting to an accident, particularly one as dramatic as Fukushima, remains high.   The industry is concerned about the near-term effect of Fukushima on the process of life extension of current plants and the support for new construction projects.  Under the pressure of the public and the media, the government may be compelled to push for sweeping policy and regulatory changes, which may ultimately prove to be unnecessarily onerous on existing and future plants.  Decision-making in the  immediate aftermath  of a  major  crisis  is  often  influenced by emotion.   Therefore, the following questions should be addressed after searching for vulnerabilities at existing plants, but before enacting significant changes in nuclear energy regulations and policy.  Does an accident like Fukushima, which is so far beyond design basis, really warrant a major overhaul of current
nuclear safety regulations and practices?  If so, when is safe safe enough?  Where do we draw the line?  It seems that a rational approach to this question would need to be based on a riskinformed comparison of nuclear energy with other energy sources (particularly its most credible competitors, such as coal and natural gas), including their effects on climate change,  global economy,  stability and reliability of the energy supply,  and geo-politics.   But can the decision makers take a risk-informed approach to energy policy?
All engineered structures (e.g. power plants, bridges, skyscrapers, dams, highways)  will fail if subjected to loads far enough beyond what they were designed for.  The catastrophic failure of an irrigation water dam in the Fukushima prefecture, which occurred when the earthquake hit, went virtually un-reported in the media.  What does this failure say about the safety of  hydro power?  Are the design basis selections of energy industry structures posing high environmental hazard, such as oil drilling platforms offshore, coal mines and water dams, consistent with those of nuclear plants?    If not,  are we as a society irrationally accepting higher risks  from certain technologies than others? "


Also, maybe I missed it by I don't see anything that factors in an increased resistance to nuclear in light of the Japanese disaster.

virtuallyme

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Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2011, 01:16:42 PM »
EXACTLY! wow, somebody, please send that last sentence to Albany NY!

Rockdale

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  • Posts: 6079
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2011, 07:21:27 AM »
I've finished reading the MIT report, and it certainly is a plus for those on the side of drilling with proper controls.  I don't think there is a lot of new material to be found in the study, rather it's value is in that it puts together in one place a lot of work by knowledgeable people all over the planet, and puts the stamp of a prestigious university on the whole package.  The report emphasizes an important point in regards to the production of electricity by burning natural gas.  Which is that there is a tremendous already existing capacity to produce electricity in natural gas plants which are presently running for the most part intermittently, but which could be put into full service if our country wanted to use less of all the other alternative fuels.

Kilgour Farms

  • Guest
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2011, 08:16:40 AM »
Haven't seen this reported in any of the media outlets, wonder why?

Greene12468

  • Guest
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2011, 09:18:41 AM »
The NY Times picked it up, but that seems to be the only major news source.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/an-m-i-t-plan-for-natural-gas-with-planet-in-mind/


bellbucci

  • Guest
Re: M.I.T releases final report: "The Future of Natural Gas"
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2011, 09:43:32 AM »
The comments following the NY Times article are frightening. My favorite comment is this one "...We need a 110% reduction in CO2 production now..." I didn't see a single correction or giggle at this gaff.

 


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