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Author Topic: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018  (Read 302876 times)

shinobi

  • Posts: 4156
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2012, 07:30:44 AM »
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF

Respectfully, sir:

At $1.693 that was not a sale.  That, sir, was a charitable donation you made there!

macal

  • Posts: 9189
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2012, 07:54:05 AM »

  Anybody know what Cabot has been selling gas for.

  And what their deductions are like.

gassyguy

  • Guest
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2012, 08:51:08 AM »
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF
It's not the futures contracts, you don't get the Henry Hub Prices usually posted in the papers your getting the Tennesssee Zn 4 Line 300 spot price, which is much lower due to piping limitations. There is a lot of gas coming out of a small portion of PA and it has no where to go. As soon as more piping is added  you will get much closer to the Henry Hub posted gas price.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2012, 08:53:00 AM by gassyguy »

Rockdale

  • Anties
  • Posts: 6077
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2012, 02:23:01 PM »
Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF

Respectfully, sir:

At $1.693 that was not a sale.  That, sir, was a charitable donation you made there!
>>>> It would be very nice if the IRS would allow someone to take the difference between what gas has sold for recently in the most transportation deficient spots in northern Pennsylvania and fair market value, but unfortunately the income tax people don't see it that way. Recent articles on the EIA website bear out what some have mentioned on this forum, that gas has at times on the worst congested portions of the Tennessee pipeline been selling for as low as 1 dollar per thousand.  It's still a very uneven pattern of pricing that is mostly attributed to transportation problems in the northeast, but overall the old northeast premium where gas was more valuable here than in other parts of the country has for the most part vanished.  A great break for the consumer, especially for those that use gas in massive quantities.

Isheoktoday

  • Guest
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2012, 03:28:21 PM »
Luckily for them, Cabot is not getting Zone 4 pricing. On a weighted average, they are getting within 3 to 5 cents of "last day NYMEX". Conference call today. They were also scheduled to go down to 3 rigs in August, but will definitely keep 4 rigs through the end of 2012. (More wells than planned. I wonder if royalty owners have seen this pricing on their checks.

Highest price our gas sold for in July was $1.693. Come on $3 gas! Guess it musta been the future contracts. Hope they (SWN) didn't sell too many months ahead.

SF
It's not the futures contracts, you don't get the Henry Hub Prices usually posted in the papers your getting the Tennesssee Zn 4 Line 300 spot price, which is much lower due to piping limitations. There is a lot of gas coming out of a small portion of PA and it has no where to go. As soon as more piping is added  you will get much closer to the Henry Hub posted gas price.

shinobi

  • Posts: 4156
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2012, 11:07:56 AM »
NatGas price surging a bit today, up 5.8%, currently at $3.19.

Heard it on the hourly news just now.  Said supply is down, usage for power generation up.

Sweet!  ;D

Tim W.Pa

  • Posts: 1032
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2012, 04:45:23 AM »
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851

Japan signs deal for LNG. This is a good start let's hope it gets the ball rolling.
" a little rebellion now and then is a good thing"
    Thomas Jefferson  30 Jan 1787

Isheoktoday

  • Guest
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2012, 01:36:56 PM »
Good news. As an official of the Japanese government  put it. He does not see the Energy Department giving the OK for this or any other export to Japan until after the election. (I wonder if this is another case of Obama being able to " do more after November" Wink Wink) Putting this in perspective, the amount in this report is 2.2 Million Tonnes. Spread over the year, that is less than 300 MMCF/d.

 From Anadarkos report today , there is a 200 well backlog for wells they are involved with. Those wells are being brought on-line at a rate of 20-30 per quarter. That backlog alone would take around two years.

The report by Bentek at the following link goes into detail about Natural Gas Supply/Demand. At continued low prices, with LNG exports, Supply and Demand will be balanced.

http://ndpipelines.wordpress.com/natural-gas-study/

If one is to believe the Deloitte report released earlier this year, then the effect on Natural Gas prices will be minimal.  Given the model?s assumptions, the World Gas Model projects a weighted-average price impact of $0.12/MMBtu on U.S. prices from 2016 to 2035 as a result of the 6 Bcfd of LNG exports.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48410851
Japan signs deal for LNG. This is a good start let's hope it gets the ball rolling.

Back to Natural Gas being greater than $3, the Gas back to coal switching might not be that big of an issue. Nuclear power has been cut back due to the high temperature of the water used.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-26/heat-sends-u-dot-s-dot-nuclear-power-production-to-9-year-low

Rockdale

  • Anties
  • Posts: 6077
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2012, 01:50:59 PM »
Every time in the past when there has been a severe drought many utility companies have been forced to curtail operations at their coal and nuclear powered plants either due to a lack of water or more often because of the rules that require a reduction in power when hot water discharges endanger downstream aquatic life.  Unfortunately there has not been much sign of the drought of 2012 breaking anytime soon in most of the country.  It's of note that the plant pictured in the article is the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant.  Vermont is the state  that has the highest dependency in the United State upon nuclear power for electricity.  And it is also of note that the Vermont legislature and governor approved of Kill the Drill legislation just in case they would have any shale gas that needs hydraulic fracturing.

mohawk70

  • Premium Member
  • Posts: 10592
Re: NG > $3.00
« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2012, 03:57:08 PM »
Every time in the past when there has been a severe drought many utility companies have been forced to curtail operations at their coal and nuclear powered plants either due to a lack of water or more often because of the rules that require a reduction in power when hot water discharges endanger downstream aquatic life.  Unfortunately there has not been much sign of the drought of 2012 breaking anytime soon in most of the country.  It's of note that the plant pictured in the article is the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant.  Vermont is the state  that has the highest dependency in the United State upon nuclear power for electricity.  And it is also of note that the Vermont legislature and governor approved of Kill the Drill legislation just in case they would have any shale gas that needs hydraulic fracturing.

Regardless of fuel used, ANY electric power plant that uses a steam turbine would have exactly the same problem.

The solution is to construct more such plants widely separated along rivers. 

Or on oceanic inlets, where they could use salt water for cooling ... even with the corrosion issues.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2012, 04:05:25 PM by mohawk70 »
Please remember:  The planet Earth is a VOLCANO.   You cannot "save" a volcano ... and volcanoes do not NEED to be saved.

shinobi

  • Posts: 4156
Re: NG < $3.00
« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2012, 10:06:43 AM »
Well, there goes my yacht.   :)

NG falling like a rock, now back down south of three bucks.   :(

Chicken Farmer

  • Posts: 5536
  • L. A. N. Y.
Re: NG < $3.00
« Reply #26 on: August 02, 2012, 10:20:18 AM »
I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?

shinobi

  • Posts: 4156
Re: NG < $3.00
« Reply #27 on: August 02, 2012, 10:30:41 AM »
I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?

I dunno.  How can any mere mortal know this stuff!

Did a contract expire at end of July or something like that?  Who the he!! knows!

All I know is I'm disappointed.  We were holding the line fairly well north of three bucks.

Now this.  Gluts suck. :'(

Chicken Farmer

  • Posts: 5536
  • L. A. N. Y.
Re: NG < $3.00
« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2012, 10:37:16 AM »
Today's movement correlates to the Dow and Oil market, so don't read too much into it.

I am more concerned about persistent dumping.

Isheoktoday

  • Guest
Re: NG < $3.00
« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2012, 11:13:47 AM »
Who is they? How do they define break even? IRR? Drilling costs alone?

I understand they need $3.50 to break even.

Who's doing the dumping and why?

 


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