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NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018

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aubrey

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Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1800 on: January 26, 2018, 05:15:29 PM »
I doubt that you'll find any gas traders here jeb. there used to be a few, but they left after they leased.

targets are pretty much meaningless in our context.

wj
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aubrey

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Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1801 on: January 26, 2018, 05:33:15 PM »
Thursday 25 January 2018 11:24am ET

$3.46

Now trading the February 2018 contract

we've been trading the feb contract, the front month will switch to march soon.

remember, you're tracking futures here, not actual prices.

march futures btw are currently at $3.158, and april is $2.90. probably gonna be a drop when the front month changes.

wj

Uh-oh!  Yes, you're right.  My bad.

These front month price distortions in advance of contract expiration are unhelpful at best to followers of this thread.  At worst they are misleading.  The intent here is to serve the landowners and royalty owners who form the overwhelming majority of forum readership, not traders and futures market participants.  I'm not fulfilling that intent when I publish distorted prices.

I need to address this situation, and I will when time allows.  The price right now remains distorted.  I'm not posting it.

I have a suggestion.

in the last week of the month, post both the front and the next month, then we can see how things are progressing beyond and then into the next month.

you could include volumes too, for an even greater perspective.

                current change prior open   high   low   volume
FEB 2018  3.520 +0.073 3.447 3.437 3.611 3.410 60,102

MAR 2018 3.169 +0.070 3.099 3.105 3.197 3.072 230,585

APR 2018  2.918 +0.017 2.901 2.940 2.947 2.884 91,814

MAY 2018  2.887 +0.007 2.880 2.889 2.916 2.868 47,365

something like that. notice how now, even though feb is still open, there is 4x the amount of gas being traded for march, and the april volume is 1.5x feb.

wj
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JEB

  • 1452
Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1802 on: January 27, 2018, 09:38:35 AM »
I doubt that you'll find any gas traders here jeb. there used to be a few, but they left after they leased.

targets are pretty much meaningless in our context.

wj

I posted those targets because flyfisher wondered if the highs were in for the year. If there were any NG traders here they would have their own way of trading and may not even use longer-term targets. Most don't.

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JEB

  • 1452
Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1803 on: January 27, 2018, 09:44:01 AM »
Thursday 25 January 2018 11:24am ET

$3.46

Now trading the February 2018 contract

Yes.  like I did yesterday when you and shin were in a tailspin over distorted NG prices.

we've been trading the feb contract, the front month will switch to march soon.

remember, you're tracking futures here, not actual prices.

march futures btw are currently at $3.158, and april is $2.90. probably gonna be a drop when the front month changes.

wj

Uh-oh!  Yes, you're right.  My bad.

These front month price distortions in advance of contract expiration are unhelpful at best to followers of this thread.  At worst they are misleading.  The intent here is to serve the landowners and royalty owners who form the overwhelming majority of forum readership, not traders and futures market participants.  I'm not fulfilling that intent when I publish distorted prices.

I need to address this situation, and I will when time allows.  The price right now remains distorted.  I'm not posting it.

I have a suggestion.

in the last week of the month, post both the front and the next month, then we can see how things are progressing beyond and then into the next month.

you could include volumes too, for an even greater perspective.

                current change prior open   high   low   volume
FEB 2018  3.520 +0.073 3.447 3.437 3.611 3.410 60,102

MAR 2018 3.169 +0.070 3.099 3.105 3.197 3.072 230,585

APR 2018  2.918 +0.017 2.901 2.940 2.947 2.884 91,814

MAY 2018  2.887 +0.007 2.880 2.889 2.916 2.868 47,365

something like that. notice how now, even though feb is still open, there is 4x the amount of gas being traded for march, and the april volume is 1.5x feb.

wj

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aubrey

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  • NEWBIE
Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1804 on: January 27, 2018, 11:39:03 AM »
Yes.  like I did yesterday when you and shin were in a tailspin over distorted NG prices.

if you look back, you will see where I distanced myself from shinobi's use of the term, "distortion". when you read what others say here, it helps you to understand what we're talking about.

I think he called it a distortion, because of the anomalous jump in price when the month changes. but you were correct in pointing out to him that the price as listed, is still correct, (for that month).

and that's why I suggested giving a little bit clearer picture by expanding the data set.

I hope that gets you up to speed with what we're talking about here. try to keep up.

wj
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JEB

  • 1452
Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1805 on: January 28, 2018, 07:23:47 AM »
Thursday 25 January 2018 11:24am ET

$3.46

Now trading the February 2018 contract

we've been trading the feb contract, the front month will switch to march soon.

remember, you're tracking futures here, not actual prices.

march futures btw are currently at $3.158, and april is $2.90. probably gonna be a drop when the front month changes.

wj

Uh-oh!  Yes, you're right.  My bad.

These front month price distortions in advance of contract expiration are unhelpful at best to followers of this thread.  At worst they are misleading.  The intent here is to serve the landowners and royalty owners who form the overwhelming majority of forum readership, not traders and futures market participants.  I'm not fulfilling that intent when I publish distorted prices.

I need to address this situation, and I will when time allows.  The price right now remains distorted.  I'm not posting it.

I have a suggestion.

in the last week of the month, post both the front and the next month, then we can see how things are progressing beyond and then into the next month.

you could include volumes too, for an even greater perspective.

                current change prior open   high   low   volume
FEB 2018  3.520 +0.073 3.447 3.437 3.611 3.410 60,102

MAR 2018 3.169 +0.070 3.099 3.105 3.197 3.072 230,585

APR 2018  2.918 +0.017 2.901 2.940 2.947 2.884 91,814

MAY 2018  2.887 +0.007 2.880 2.889 2.916 2.868 47,365

something like that. notice how now, even though feb is still open, there is 4x the amount of gas being traded for march, and the april volume is 1.5x feb.

wj

I am trying to keep up wj and after you posted the contracts listed above I got a lot of emails from farmers and landowners asking me these questions. So can you help me out here?

The first question they had is do you expect the NG market to trade in Contango or Backwardation over the next year?

The second question they had is do you expect the futures curve to be Normal or Inverted?

I know what I think but I need a second opinion.


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JEB

  • 1452
Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1806 on: January 28, 2018, 09:02:41 AM »
Thursday 25 January 2018 11:24am ET

$3.46

Now trading the February 2018 contract

Yes.  like I did yesterday when you and shin were in a tailspin over distorted NG prices.

we've been trading the feb contract, the front month will switch to march soon.

remember, you're tracking futures here, not actual prices.

march futures btw are currently at $3.158, and april is $2.90. probably gonna be a drop when the front month changes.

wj

Uh-oh!  Yes, you're right.  My bad.

These front month price distortions in advance of contract expiration are unhelpful at best to followers of this thread.  At worst they are misleading.  The intent here is to serve the landowners and royalty owners who form the overwhelming majority of forum readership, not traders and futures market participants.  I'm not fulfilling that intent when I publish distorted prices.

I need to address this situation, and I will when time allows.  The price right now remains distorted.  I'm not posting it.

I have a suggestion.

in the last week of the month, post both the front and the next month, then we can see how things are progressing beyond and then into the next month.

you could include volumes too, for an even greater perspective.

                current change prior open   high   low   volume
FEB 2018  3.520 +0.073 3.447 3.437 3.611 3.410 60,102

MAR 2018 3.169 +0.070 3.099 3.105 3.197 3.072 230,585

APR 2018  2.918 +0.017 2.901 2.940 2.947 2.884 91,814

MAY 2018  2.887 +0.007 2.880 2.889 2.916 2.868 47,365

something like that. notice how now, even though feb is still open, there is 4x the amount of gas being traded for march, and the april volume is 1.5x feb.

wj

I was only kidding you in my last post wj and I think that the way you posted the list of contracts and the total information is an excellent way for members to get an overall view of what to expect in regards to further out NG prices. It looks like the NG contracts are going to be trading Contango meaning lower prices ahead and the future curve will be inverted. That is quite a  price drop from $3.52 to $2.88 in four months. If you would post at least six contracts at a time we can get an idea of what to expect. Keep up the good work.

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aubrey

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Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1807 on: January 28, 2018, 10:55:09 AM »
glad you like it jeb, but keep in mind that this thread is frank's project. I was only offering a suggestion, and frank doesn't usually take suggestions.

wj
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aubrey

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Re: NG price (NYMEX front month) 2018
« Reply #1808 on: January 30, 2018, 08:51:38 AM »
yesterdays high price was $3.66 for the last day of the February contract.

today march is the front month. trading opened at $3.19. the price is currently $3.24, up 7 cents from yesterdays march price of $3.17.

wj
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