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Sandal's Journal

  • 114 Replies
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g592314

  • 2660
Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #105 on: May 09, 2011, 07:11:26 PM »
Ok, from a business perspective, what would you do with a well that could produce a very large amount of gas right now?  I wouldn't dump it all early, at $4 gas.   I think I'd choke it back to a rate that I know will hold up fairly well over many years... kind of dollar cost averaging...smoothing out the peaks and valleys in gas pricing. 

Sure, I think I'd open it up if gas prices got really high, assuming the pipelines could accommodate it, and maybe hold it back some if prices were low.   Who knows, it could all be wishful thinking on my part.  As wj said, we'll know a whole lot more in a few years. (ps I'll let you know when the significant decline of the Shirley or Grippo wells begins)

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Berkeley

Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #106 on: May 10, 2011, 09:08:11 AM »
I wouldn't treat all wells the same. If the royalty owners were getting 1/8 I might open those up to fulfill my contracts to supply gas. If the royalties were 1/5 I might wait on those for higher prices.

As a lessor, I hope your analysis is right but it looks to me like my lease is going to be developed soon to hbp a lot of $5 acre 12.5% leases about to expire. I really would like to know what it will yield to better plan.

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aubrey

  • 15002
  • NEWBIE
Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #107 on: May 10, 2011, 05:36:02 PM »
I am  just amazed to see wells cranking out between 7 and 8 mmcf/day for the better part of a year.  Based on that calculation I did in my post a week or so ago, even the minimum calculated IP (theoretical, open flow) for the top wells in the dep list would corrospond to EURs far beyond what I currently see at the gas company websites.  

Maybe I'm misinterpreting something, so I probably shouldn't even comment on EURS,
but to see wells cranking out well over 2 billion cubic feet in under a year just leaves me wondering what's really going on here...

Just cranking it out faster. Will be depleted faster. They can't do any magic to put any more down there. I suppose they could be being more successful  and recovering a higher % but I think the variable easiest to change is how fast you pull it out and that would be governed by their need or desire to sell at a given time and place.

you do realize that gip. "gas in place" is only half of the eur equation.

after pressures drop in a shale well, the rock begins to desorb the gas imbedded in its matrix. thats where the long lower production periods come from after gip is gone.

its not magic, just physics.

wj

« Last Edit: May 10, 2011, 06:34:30 PM by wj »
CHANGE IT BACK!

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Berkeley

Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #108 on: May 10, 2011, 06:32:36 PM »
I am  just amazed to see wells cranking out between 7 and 8 mmcf/day for the better part of a year.  Based on that calculation I did in my post a week or so ago, even the minimum calculated IP (theoretical, open flow) for the top wells in the dep list would corrospond to EURs far beyond what I currently see at the gas company websites. 

Maybe I'm misinterpreting something, so I probably shouldn't even comment on EURS,
but to see wells cranking out well over 2 billion cubic feet in under a year just leaves me wondering what's really going on here...

Help me with your conclusion. What do you suspect?

Just cranking it out faster. Will be depleted faster. They can't do any magic to put any more down there. I suppose they could be being more successful  and recovering a higher % but I think the variable easiest to change is how fast you pull it out and that would be governed by their need or desire to sell at a given time and place.

you do realize that gip. "gas in place" is only have of the eur equation.

after pressures drop in a shale well, the rock begins to desorb the gas imbedded in its matrix. thats where the long lower production periods come from after gip is gone.

its not magic, just physics.

wj



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donegal

  • 5006
Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #109 on: May 10, 2011, 07:49:46 PM »
wj, in trying to explain what some see as a complex process, reduced it to basics when he said,

"....you do realize that gip. "gas in place" is only half of the eur equation.

after pressures drop in a shale well, the rock begins to desorb the gas imbedded in its matrix. thats where the long lower production periods come from after gip is gone.

its not magic, just physics.
wj


Well,.....yea,.....simple physics.....they have ALWAYS seemed to cause a rapid desorption of gas, with almost explosive results....often releasing both gas AND matrix....long after GIP is gone.......least ways, that's how physics always work on me! ;D ;D

Donegal
« Last Edit: May 11, 2011, 09:38:17 PM by donegal »
We finally scuttled the Exxon Valdez (for the second time in her life), and turned in at the boatyard the ol'  gray Bismarck before she sank too..  Now I'm Captain of the most beautifulest boat ever, the "HMS HOOD", a 2012 stealth black AWD V-8 Chrysler 300.

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g592314

  • 2660
Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #110 on: May 10, 2011, 08:04:02 PM »
yuck  :D

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Humphry444

Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #111 on: June 01, 2011, 05:36:42 PM »
wj  you muight take a class.

GIP is the est of gas in

how much GIP 1 2) is what % can be revovred.

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bob0usa

Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #112 on: June 01, 2011, 11:08:18 PM »
say that again in English please!  ???

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donegal

  • 5006
Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #113 on: June 02, 2011, 10:09:56 AM »
wj  you muight take a class.

GIP is the est of gas in

how much GIP 1 2) is what % can be revovred.

say that again in English please!  ???



Ahem....I have great respect for The Sandal's and what they have provided everyone via this thread. Thanks to you folks.

In that light, I will ignore Stevie's shortcomings, and simply  accept him, now of age, as an incorrigible.....

Bob, maaaaybe he is attempting to explain that GIP is "Gas In Place"....how much total gas is in a subject shale formation. Now we ALL know that it is hard to get EVERY bit of anything out of something else. Like can you get ALL the peanut butter out of that jar? Or, if you do brush your teeth, how practical is it to get EVERY last bit of toothpaste out of that da*#@% tube? Yea, there is always the odd-duck who works and works and works at it...and STILL some is left behind. You know, in business, you work at something until it is no longer profitable....yea, unlike BartieBoy who puts his toothpaste tube in a vise hoping to extract every little gram of goop. Well now, WHAT did you get out?? The EUR or "Expected Ultimate Recovery".

Here is a dated but still worthwhile article on EUR:
                       http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-b/REPORTS/Chapter_23.pdf

So, in a gas well you start with say 100 GIP, drill, frac and extract using the best current technology,....whatever you get out of that 100, say you get 10 out, there is your EUR.  Express it however you want 10 units of something, 10% of GIP,....whatever. The  POINT is you ain't gonna' get it ALL......but the guy who get out the highest % of GIP ......well, let's just say,"His smile is gonna' really be WHITE!! ;D ;D

Donegal
p.s. You could wait for a better explanation from Stevie,....better pack a lunch, though.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2011, 11:42:36 AM by donegal »
We finally scuttled the Exxon Valdez (for the second time in her life), and turned in at the boatyard the ol'  gray Bismarck before she sank too..  Now I'm Captain of the most beautifulest boat ever, the "HMS HOOD", a 2012 stealth black AWD V-8 Chrysler 300.

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MikeyWyo

Re: Sandal's Journal
« Reply #114 on: July 12, 2011, 05:43:03 AM »
...."p.s. You could wait for a better explanation from Stevie,....better pack a lunch, though"
 AND a dictionary!!! ;D